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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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  • outfctrloutfctrl Jacksonville, FLPosts: 3,619Member

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Agree

    I deleted Xfire off my system.  It was kind buggering it up.  So I stopped using it.

    image

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Rocketeer

    Originally posted by Vato26

    That is false.  Server loads =! server populations.  Server loads measure how full the servers are.  It doesn't measure the number of people on the server.  Thus, it doesn't measure server populations.

    Scientists also focus on controlling extraneous variables so that their tests measure what they want to measure.  There are absolutely no controls set up outside of X-fire.  Thus, using X-fire statistics outside of X-fire means they are inherently invalid.  And, using invalid data means that your conclusion on that invalid data is invalid.  No matter how much you want it to be so, it's still completely invalid.

    Also, thanks for proving your agenda via the red.  Keep on using your invalid data in any way you can so you can fulfill your self-serving agenda.

    Wrong part in red, ofc you can still be right even with faulty data. You can even be right without any kind of data to back you up. Its called coincidence. Its actually quite common, infact the less data you use to form your opinion, and the simpler your thesis, the greater the chance to be right by coincidence <-- hypothesis right there. One example of that would be old greeks postulating the existance of atoms, but there are probably hundreds more.  That is false.  If you gave that same statement to any form of the scientific community you would be laughed out of the room.

    Thats also why a proper scientific approach always first and foremost focuses around creating a hypothesis and trying to disprove it by finding a case where it not applies. Exactly because discrediting the source is not proof of a hypothesis being wrong, after all it could still be right by coincidence! If you can find no way to disprove a hypothesis, then it stands. Doesn't mean its right, contrary to popular belief scientist are not so arrogant that they assume they are always right, but its still a valid thesis.

    Thesis is also based on past scientific studies or the premise of the current study with controls in place to prevent as much extraneous variables as possible from preventing the scientists from measuring the results that they are aiming to measure.  When using X-fire statistics within X-fire, there are controls in place (required usage of X-fire to actually record the hours played).  However, there are absolutely no controls in place outside of X-fire when applying X-fire statistics outside of X-fire. 

    Control is the prime part of measuring statistics.  Lack of those controls = lack of any form of validity as there's no controls in place to prevent extraneous variables from altering what the person is trying to measure.  That is something that the X-fire Fan brigade can't comprehend.

    Its just pointless to ask for facts to prove someone right if you can't provide facts to prove them wrong.   Xfire being not representative of general gamers doesn't disproof anything, unless you know how big the derivation between them is. Its not proof, its anecdotal evidence. There might be a derivation, or not ... it might make a difference, or not. We don't know, and thats half of science right there.

    Stop with your Strawman tactics.  They don't work.  You all made the statements and continue to use X-fire.  I, and many others have refuted them with actual scientific proceedures.  So, the burden is on you.

    Sometimes i wonder where the idea comes from that science is based around cold hard facts and provable data ... i blame hollywood. The real number of actual scientific theories(often called laws) that are widely accepted as truth is actually quite low(Law of Thermodynamics, invariance of speed of light, conversation of mass-energy and of momentum, electrostatic laws ... that about sums it up i think). Otherwise scientists kinda go with the flow and simply change theories if they prove wrong later on.

    Hollywood has nothing to do with it.  It's called textbooks, college courses, and actual participation in the scientific community.  Things that pretty much say that your version of nilly-willy statistical analysis is wrong.

     

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Pelaaja

    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by Pelaaja


    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    The tldr would be:

    Ha Ha see the game is dying!

    Bullshit.

    Lather, rinse, repeat 250,000 times.

    Who is saying the game is dying in this thread? Not me atleast.

     

    You're taking away old mans Netz Kewl, let him have it image

    There's certainly a trend for high peaks declining and lows going lower. It's following the trend other games have had so far.

    January 23rd 2012 the number of XFire users playing is 8,637. While Rift is 463, Aion is 924 and WoW is 19,115.

    According hours are SW:ToR 44783 (5,2h per user), Rift 2280 (4,9h per user), Aion 3921 (4,2h per user), WoW 83313 (4,4h per user).

    I think the question here should be how low will the graph and users number go?

    Please show me statistical proof that shows the percentage that those players represent towards the total gaming population for their respective games.  Also, please show me statistical proof that shows that these decreased hours are attributable to decrease in subscriptions rather than a decrease in number of hours played.

    Otherwise, you have proven that you are misusing statistics for your own self-serving agenda.



    What agenda? I'm playing the game and am planning to get a sub for month once this included time is over. There is no hidden agenda, you should look at things more objectively.

    What these numbers tell me, is SW:ToR has got past the launch-time over playing according to XFire. We will start seeing some kind of retention rate, but what it will really be will remain as a mystery until they release investors white papers.

    [Removed Flaming attempt]

    I try to take it as a game, entertainment. A product I will consume for a while and pick the next flavor when I feel like a change. And part of that consuming is discussing about it and one of the most interesting aspects on MMOs (to me, at least), player base.

    I see that you ignored my requests for proof.  And, instead, just engaged in conjecture.

    Facts that remain:



    1. You do not know the percentage of the total SWTOR subscriber base that actually uses X-fire.  Therefore, using this outside of X-fire means jack squat as no one knows if the changes in hours played between the 8000-something that use X-fire and play SWTOR (very small percentage) are similar or not to the total SWTOR subscriber base.  That's what scientists call an extraneous variable that is messes with what the scientists want to measure.


    2. X-fire measures hours played.  It does not measure subscription numbers.  Therefore, trying to use X-fire hours played to describe subscriber changes is completely false.

  • KaocanKaocan Atlanta, GAPosts: 1,270Member

    Ok, test time. 

     

    Show of hands...how many people have paid for more than 30 days of game time on SW:TOR at this time?? (not counting multi month plans here).

     

    Answer : NOBODY

     

    Reason : game hasn't even been out long enough to charge for more than one month on ANYONE. 

    Extrapilation from Data : Unable to determine ANY trend based on such a limited amount of data. All attempts to do so, no matter the outcome are based completely on speculation. I dont care if its a chart from him or a chart from her. We all know for a FACT that EVERY game loses people at the end of the free 30 days. WE ALL KNOW IT. So your charts, your data, ALL of it means about nothing right now. The free 30 days just ended. Now, if you want to come back with all this data in another month or two, when we can actually see a viable trend line, please feel free to do so. Until then, please stop with the guessing. 

     

     

    (DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)

  • PelaajaPelaaja HevonkuusiPosts: 697Member

    Originally posted by Vato26

    Originally posted by Pelaaja


    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by Pelaaja


    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    The tldr would be:

    Ha Ha see the game is dying!

    Bullshit.

    Lather, rinse, repeat 250,000 times.

    Who is saying the game is dying in this thread? Not me atleast.

     

    You're taking away old mans Netz Kewl, let him have it image

    There's certainly a trend for high peaks declining and lows going lower. It's following the trend other games have had so far.

    January 23rd 2012 the number of XFire users playing is 8,637. While Rift is 463, Aion is 924 and WoW is 19,115.

    According hours are SW:ToR 44783 (5,2h per user), Rift 2280 (4,9h per user), Aion 3921 (4,2h per user), WoW 83313 (4,4h per user).

    I think the question here should be how low will the graph and users number go?

    Please show me statistical proof that shows the percentage that those players represent towards the total gaming population for their respective games.  Also, please show me statistical proof that shows that these decreased hours are attributable to decrease in subscriptions rather than a decrease in number of hours played.

    Otherwise, you have proven that you are misusing statistics for your own self-serving agenda.



    What agenda? I'm playing the game and am planning to get a sub for month once this included time is over. There is no hidden agenda, you should look at things more objectively.

    What these numbers tell me, is SW:ToR has got past the launch-time over playing according to XFire. We will start seeing some kind of retention rate, but what it will really be will remain as a mystery until they release investors white papers.

    [Removed Flaming attempt]

    I try to take it as a game, entertainment. A product I will consume for a while and pick the next flavor when I feel like a change. And part of that consuming is discussing about it and one of the most interesting aspects on MMOs (to me, at least), player base.

    I see that you ignored my requests for proof.  And, instead, just engaged in conjecture.

    Facts that remain:



    1. You do not know the percentage of the total SWTOR subscriber base that actually uses X-fire.  Therefore, using this outside of X-fire means jack squat as no one knows if the changes in hours played between the 8000-something that use X-fire and play SWTOR (very small percentage) are similar or not to the total SWTOR subscriber base.  That's what scientists call an extraneous variable that is messes with what the scientists want to measure.


    2. X-fire measures hours played.  It does not measure subscription numbers.  Therefore, trying to use X-fire hours played to describe subscriber changes is completely false.

    Of course I ignored your request for proof, because you aren't discussing the same thing I am.

    I'm discussing about how SW:ToR is doing according to XFire. You're like a broken record insisting how XFire isn't a good measurement. All right, you're heard. Let's get back to the subject at hand, shall we?

    We get to know the retention rate once they release investors papers, as I said earlier. Now we have an opportutiny to see how the game is doing among XFire players. If that's not ok with you, no one is forcing you to read and post to this thread.

    SW:ToR 24th number is 8240 users, 38211 hours played. 4,6h per user. It's a little lower than day before, but that might just be because of the downtime they had.

    image

  • VrikaVrika FinlandPosts: 2,576Member Uncommon

    SWTOR vs. WoW time played on XFire:















































    DATE

    SWTOR

    WOW

    SWTOR/WOW

    Dec 24th

    62k hours

    79k hours

    78%

    Dec 31st

    63k hours

    72k hours

    88%

    Jan 7th

    73k hours

    102k hours

    72%

    Jan 14th

    68k hours

    101k hours

    67%

    Jan 21th

    56k hours

    96k hours

    58%

    Jan 28th

    40k hours

    98k hours

    41%

     

    SWTOR got only 41% of WoW's gametime this Saturday, compared to 58% of WoW's gametime Saturday last week, but because SWTOR's servers were down due to patch it would be unfair to draw any conclusions from this weeks data.

  • udorusudorus edinburghPosts: 79Member

    well apart from the fact Bioware were dumb enough to take their servers offline on a Friday night, good job guys you really are learning this the hard way.

  • binary_0011binary_0011 SingaporePosts: 528Member

    how to check top 10 games in xfire?

  • RocketeerRocketeer NachrodtPosts: 1,304Member

    Originally posted by Vato26

    Originally posted by Rocketeer


    Originally posted by Vato26

    That is false.  Server loads =! server populations.  Server loads measure how full the servers are.  It doesn't measure the number of people on the server.  Thus, it doesn't measure server populations.

    Scientists also focus on controlling extraneous variables so that their tests measure what they want to measure.  There are absolutely no controls set up outside of X-fire.  Thus, using X-fire statistics outside of X-fire means they are inherently invalid.  And, using invalid data means that your conclusion on that invalid data is invalid.  No matter how much you want it to be so, it's still completely invalid.

    Also, thanks for proving your agenda via the red.  Keep on using your invalid data in any way you can so you can fulfill your self-serving agenda.

    Wrong part in red, ofc you can still be right even with faulty data. You can even be right without any kind of data to back you up. Its called coincidence. Its actually quite common, infact the less data you use to form your opinion, and the simpler your thesis, the greater the chance to be right by coincidence <-- hypothesis right there. One example of that would be old greeks postulating the existance of atoms, but there are probably hundreds more.  That is false.  If you gave that same statement to any form of the scientific community you would be laughed out of the room.

    That is your opinion, proof?

    Thats also why a proper scientific approach always first and foremost focuses around creating a hypothesis and trying to disprove it by finding a case where it not applies. Exactly because discrediting the source is not proof of a hypothesis being wrong, after all it could still be right by coincidence! If you can find no way to disprove a hypothesis, then it stands. Doesn't mean its right, contrary to popular belief scientist are not so arrogant that they assume they are always right, but its still a valid thesis.

    Thesis is also based on past scientific studies or the premise of the current study with controls in place to prevent as much extraneous variables as possible from preventing the scientists from measuring the results that they are aiming to measure.  When using X-fire statistics within X-fire, there are controls in place (required usage of X-fire to actually record the hours played).  However, there are absolutely no controls in place outside of X-fire when applying X-fire statistics outside of X-fire. 

    You are confusing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thesis_%28academic_document%29 with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis. Here is a quote for you:

    "People refer to a trial solution to a problem as a hypothesis, often called an "educated guess"[7][8] because it provides a suggested solution based on the evidence. Experimenters may test and reject several hypotheses before solving the problem."

    Sounds exactly like what im talking about, the experimental part is where we just see how it goes by comparing the data from xfire with actual changes like new servers opening/old closing, official numbers etc.

    Control is the prime part of measuring statistics.  Lack of those controls = lack of any form of validity as there's no controls in place to prevent extraneous variables from altering what the person is trying to measure.  That is something that the X-fire Fan brigade can't comprehend.

    Ofc having full control helps immensely with the accuracy of statistics, nobody denies that. But if full control is impossible you make do with the next best thing and simply append a proper +- derivation to your data to make people aware of its limitations. If you don't know the derivation you guess it based on the information available, an example would be archelogist judging the age of very old fossilised organic materials, the derivation can be millions of years. And yeah sometimes you can be totally wrong because there where extraneous variables you didn't know about, but that shouldn't prevent you from trying anyway.

    Its just pointless to ask for facts to prove someone right if you can't provide facts to prove them wrong.   Xfire being not representative of general gamers doesn't disproof anything, unless you know how big the derivation between them is. Its not proof, its anecdotal evidence. There might be a derivation, or not ... it might make a difference, or not. We don't know, and thats half of science right there.

    Stop with your Strawman tactics.  They don't work.  You all made the statements and continue to use X-fire.  I, and many others have refuted them with actual scientific proceedures.  So, the burden is on you.

    What kind of scientific procedures are this? And what exactly did you prove? Fact is you don't know wether/how accurate xfire is in any particular case, noone of us does. Claiming that a sample size of many thousands of gamers would be wildly inaccurate is just as unlikely as them being(nearly) completely right. Both could happen to be, but i just consider it unlikely based on past experiences with xfire and gametrends.

    Sometimes i wonder where the idea comes from that science is based around cold hard facts and provable data ... i blame hollywood. The real number of actual scientific theories(often called laws) that are widely accepted as truth is actually quite low(Law of Thermodynamics, invariance of speed of light, conversation of mass-energy and of momentum, electrostatic laws ... that about sums it up i think). Otherwise scientists kinda go with the flow and simply change theories if they prove wrong later on.

    Hollywood has nothing to do with it.  It's called textbooks, college courses, and actual participation in the scientific community.  Things that pretty much say that your version of nilly-willy statistical analysis is wrong.

    Its not my version, and its not for you to decide whats wrong or right. Like so often history will tell who was right and who was wrong, that being said both of us lack hard data.

    If it makes you feel any better though, i would never settle for a measurement system like xfire if there was any other solution. But fact is the onlyones with hard data are guarding it closely, and we only have secondary resources like these. Of all the secondary resources available to us i feel xfire is the most accurate for shortterm developements, and there is no shame on basing your hypothesis on the best data available to you, even if its no completely accurate.

    Like i said, its perfectly fine to do statistics like this, you just need to make people aware of the limitations your statistical data is based upon. For example it would be a perfectly fine to only ask only women between 18-21 about who they will vote for before an election and base an statistic analysis on that data. However if you try to extrapolate general election results the accuracy would be naturally alot less than asking a proper samplesize of men and women of all ages. That being said, if for some reason you could only ask those women, the result would still be more accurate than no statistic at all.

    TL;DR: Xfire might be inaccurate, but its still better than no data at all which is what we have without it. And the absence of data never proves anything, apart from data for an analysis being missing.

    P.S.: Inability to argue an hypothesis without personal attacks, or replacing arguments with the same, is not science.

     

     

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Rocketeer

    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by Rocketeer


    Originally posted by Vato26

    That is false.  Server loads =! server populations.  Server loads measure how full the servers are.  It doesn't measure the number of people on the server.  Thus, it doesn't measure server populations.

    Scientists also focus on controlling extraneous variables so that their tests measure what they want to measure.  There are absolutely no controls set up outside of X-fire.  Thus, using X-fire statistics outside of X-fire means they are inherently invalid.  And, using invalid data means that your conclusion on that invalid data is invalid.  No matter how much you want it to be so, it's still completely invalid.

    Also, thanks for proving your agenda via the red.  Keep on using your invalid data in any way you can so you can fulfill your self-serving agenda.

    Wrong part in red, ofc you can still be right even with faulty data. You can even be right without any kind of data to back you up. Its called coincidence. Its actually quite common, infact the less data you use to form your opinion, and the simpler your thesis, the greater the chance to be right by coincidence <-- hypothesis right there. One example of that would be old greeks postulating the existance of atoms, but there are probably hundreds more.  That is false.  If you gave that same statement to any form of the scientific community you would be laughed out of the room.

    That is your opinion, proof?

    No, it's a fact.  Having no data to back up a hypothesis makes the hypothesis a pure guess.  Hypothesis are built upon past studies.  Therefore, they are not purely a guess.  Again, you'd be laughed out of the room if you provided a baseless hypothesis (guess) to a any form of scientific community.

    Thats also why a proper scientific approach always first and foremost focuses around creating a hypothesis and trying to disprove it by finding a case where it not applies. Exactly because discrediting the source is not proof of a hypothesis being wrong, after all it could still be right by coincidence! If you can find no way to disprove a hypothesis, then it stands. Doesn't mean its right, contrary to popular belief scientist are not so arrogant that they assume they are always right, but its still a valid thesis.

    Thesis is also based on past scientific studies or the premise of the current study with controls in place to prevent as much extraneous variables as possible from preventing the scientists from measuring the results that they are aiming to measure.  When using X-fire statistics within X-fire, there are controls in place (required usage of X-fire to actually record the hours played).  However, there are absolutely no controls in place outside of X-fire when applying X-fire statistics outside of X-fire. 

    You are confusing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thesis_%28academic_document%29 with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis. Here is a quote for you:

    "People refer to a trial solution to a problem as a hypothesis, often called an "educated guess"[7][8] because it provides a suggested solution based on the evidence. Experimenters may test and reject several hypotheses before solving the problem."

    Sounds exactly like what im talking about, the experimental part is where we just see how it goes by comparing the data from xfire with actual changes like new servers opening/old closing, official numbers etc.

    Hypothesis are based on past studies.  Studies that have controls built into them to measure the variables that the scientist wants to measure by removing as many of the extraneous variables as possible.  There are absolutely no controls present to prevent extraneous variables from interfering with trying to use X-fire statistics outside of the X-fire userbase.  Which, makes this a pure guess rather than an educated guess.  Thus, it has no validity.  That's a fact.

    Control is the prime part of measuring statistics.  Lack of those controls = lack of any form of validity as there's no controls in place to prevent extraneous variables from altering what the person is trying to measure.  That is something that the X-fire Fan brigade can't comprehend.

    Ofc having full control helps immensely with the accuracy of statistics, nobody denies that. But if full control is impossible you make do with the next best thing and simply append a proper +- derivation to your data to make people aware of its limitations. If you don't know the derivation you guess it based on the information available, an example would be archelogist judging the age of very old fossilised organic materials, the derivation can be millions of years. And yeah sometimes you can be totally wrong because there where extraneous variables you didn't know about, but that shouldn't prevent you from trying anyway.

    You do not understand control when it comes to science.  The blue highlighted phrase proves that.  Using a +- derivation without actual scientific evidence to back it up is nothing more than an arbitrary guess.  Again, further shoving it to the side of guessing rather than science.  As to the red highlight, Archeologists use carbon dating, which is quite accurate, and an evolutionary chart that is further validated by carbon dating and geological evidence to back up their science.  They don't go nilly-willy guessing that you are trying to claim they do.

    Its just pointless to ask for facts to prove someone right if you can't provide facts to prove them wrong.   Xfire being not representative of general gamers doesn't disproof anything, unless you know how big the derivation between them is. Its not proof, its anecdotal evidence. There might be a derivation, or not ... it might make a difference, or not. We don't know, and thats half of science right there.

    Stop with your Strawman tactics.  They don't work.  You all made the statements and continue to use X-fire.  I, and many others have refuted them with actual scientific proceedures.  So, the burden is on you.

    What kind of scientific procedures are this? And what exactly did you prove? Fact is you don't know wether/how accurate xfire is in any particular case, noone of us does. Claiming that a sample size of many thousands of gamers would be wildly inaccurate is just as unlikely as them being(nearly) completely right. Both could happen to be, but i just consider it unlikely based on past experiences with xfire and gametrends.

    Fact is, I, and quite a few others have proven our case by poking T-rex sized holes in yours with scientific procedures.

    Sometimes i wonder where the idea comes from that science is based around cold hard facts and provable data ... i blame hollywood. The real number of actual scientific theories(often called laws) that are widely accepted as truth is actually quite low(Law of Thermodynamics, invariance of speed of light, conversation of mass-energy and of momentum, electrostatic laws ... that about sums it up i think). Otherwise scientists kinda go with the flow and simply change theories if they prove wrong later on.

    Hollywood has nothing to do with it.  It's called textbooks, college courses, and actual participation in the scientific community.  Things that pretty much say that your version of nilly-willy statistical analysis is wrong.

    Its not my version, and its not for you to decide whats wrong or right. Like so often history will tell who was right and who was wrong, that being said both of us lack hard data.

    If it makes you feel any better though, i would never settle for a measurement system like xfire if there was any other solution. But fact is the onlyones with hard data are guarding it closely, and we only have secondary resources like these. Of all the secondary resources available to us i feel xfire is the most accurate for shortterm developements, and there is no shame on basing your hypothesis on the best data available to you, even if its no completely accurate.

    Using crappy data just makes the conclusion crappy.

    Like i said, its perfectly fine to do statistics like this, you just need to make people aware of the limitations your statistical data is based upon. For example it would be a perfectly fine to only ask only women between 18-21 about who they will vote for before an election and base an statistic analysis on that data. However if you try to extrapolate general election results the accuracy would be naturally alot less than asking a proper samplesize of men and women of all ages. That being said, if for some reason you could only ask those women, the result would still be more accurate than no statistic at all.

    Blue:  Scientists would totally disagree with you on that statement.  Faux science proves nothing.

    Red:  Again, more faux science.  You are using a flawed sample and trying to apply it to the population.  Scientists would laugh you out of the room if you tried to prevent this to them.

    TL;DR: Xfire might be inaccurate, but its still better than no data at all which is what we have without it. And the absence of data never proves anything, apart from data for an analysis being missing.

    Using crappy data just makes the conclusion crappy.

    P.S.: Inability to argue an hypothesis without personal attacks, or replacing arguments with the same, is not science.

    Please show me where I attacked you.  Oh wait.... that was a falsehood spouted by you!

     

     

     

  • VrikaVrika FinlandPosts: 2,576Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Vato26

    Originally posted by Rocketeer


    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by Rocketeer


    Originally posted by Vato26

    That is false.  Server loads =! server populations.  Server loads measure how full the servers are.  It doesn't measure the number of people on the server.  Thus, it doesn't measure server populations.

    Scientists also focus on controlling extraneous variables so that their tests measure what they want to measure.  There are absolutely no controls set up outside of X-fire.  Thus, using X-fire statistics outside of X-fire means they are inherently invalid.  And, using invalid data means that your conclusion on that invalid data is invalid.  No matter how much you want it to be so, it's still completely invalid.

    Also, thanks for proving your agenda via the red.  Keep on using your invalid data in any way you can so you can fulfill your self-serving agenda.

    Wrong part in red, ofc you can still be right even with faulty data. You can even be right without any kind of data to back you up. Its called coincidence. Its actually quite common, infact the less data you use to form your opinion, and the simpler your thesis, the greater the chance to be right by coincidence <-- hypothesis right there. One example of that would be old greeks postulating the existance of atoms, but there are probably hundreds more.  That is false.  If you gave that same statement to any form of the scientific community you would be laughed out of the room.

    That is your opinion, proof?

    No, it's a fact.  Having no data to back up a hypothesis makes the hypothesis a pure guess.  Hypothesis are built upon past studies.  Therefore, they are not purely a guess.  Again, you'd be laughed out of the room if you provided a baseless hypothesis (guess) to a any form of scientific community.

    Thats also why a proper scientific approach always first and foremost focuses around creating a hypothesis and trying to disprove it by finding a case where it not applies. Exactly because discrediting the source is not proof of a hypothesis being wrong, after all it could still be right by coincidence! If you can find no way to disprove a hypothesis, then it stands. Doesn't mean its right, contrary to popular belief scientist are not so arrogant that they assume they are always right, but its still a valid thesis.

    Thesis is also based on past scientific studies or the premise of the current study with controls in place to prevent as much extraneous variables as possible from preventing the scientists from measuring the results that they are aiming to measure.  When using X-fire statistics within X-fire, there are controls in place (required usage of X-fire to actually record the hours played).  However, there are absolutely no controls in place outside of X-fire when applying X-fire statistics outside of X-fire. 

    You are confusing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thesis_%28academic_document%29 with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis. Here is a quote for you:

    "People refer to a trial solution to a problem as a hypothesis, often called an "educated guess"[7][8] because it provides a suggested solution based on the evidence. Experimenters may test and reject several hypotheses before solving the problem."

    Sounds exactly like what im talking about, the experimental part is where we just see how it goes by comparing the data from xfire with actual changes like new servers opening/old closing, official numbers etc.

    Hypothesis are based on past studies.  Studies that have controls built into them to measure the variables that the scientist wants to measure by removing as many of the extraneous variables as possible.  There are absolutely no controls present to prevent extraneous variables from interfering with trying to use X-fire statistics outside of the X-fire userbase.  Which, makes this a pure guess rather than an educated guess.  Thus, it has no validity.  That's a fact.

    Control is the prime part of measuring statistics.  Lack of those controls = lack of any form of validity as there's no controls in place to prevent extraneous variables from altering what the person is trying to measure.  That is something that the X-fire Fan brigade can't comprehend.

    Ofc having full control helps immensely with the accuracy of statistics, nobody denies that. But if full control is impossible you make do with the next best thing and simply append a proper +- derivation to your data to make people aware of its limitations. If you don't know the derivation you guess it based on the information available, an example would be archelogist judging the age of very old fossilised organic materials, the derivation can be millions of years. And yeah sometimes you can be totally wrong because there where extraneous variables you didn't know about, but that shouldn't prevent you from trying anyway.

    You do not understand control when it comes to science.  The blue highlighted phrase proves that.  Using a +- derivation without actual scientific evidence to back it up is nothing more than an arbitrary guess.  Again, further shoving it to the side of guessing rather than science.  As to the red highlight, Archeologists use carbon dating, which is quite accurate, and an evolutionary chart that is further validated by carbon dating and geological evidence to back up their science.  They don't go nilly-willy guessing that you are trying to claim they do.....

     

     

     

    You are trying to apply scientific methods from hard sciences to soft sciences.

    Controlled environments and eliminating extraneous variables is good when studying simple human behaviour or interactions. But assuming you took a group of XFire users and non-XFire users into a controlled environment and eliminated all extraneous variables. You might well end up eliminating also the reason why one group started using XFire and the other did not in the first place. You'd have taken the human decision (to play SWTOR or to not to play) out of its normal context, and due to differences between the normal context with XFire users and non-XFire users, any results you'd gain in controlled environment would cease to apply to the groups you just studied when you'd let them out of that controlled environmen and into the open world with all its variables.

    When predicting human behaviour in mass scale it's not possible to create the required controlled environments and take every variable into account. You're stuck with using statistics, polls, your own knowledge of human nature. And you can only verify your results with more statistics, polls, observations and inductive reasoning.

     

    PS. And you've build so large a quote pyramid with so many colors, that there's no way for me to tell who has said what in your discussion.

  • RocketeerRocketeer NachrodtPosts: 1,304Member

    @Vato

    1. You are making a prediction of the behaviour of a hypothetical room full of hypothetical scientists and predict their reaction, you are spouting nonsense.

    2. You do not understand what a Hypothesis is.


    Definition of HYPOTHESIS




    1


    a : an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument b : an interpretation of a practical situation or condition taken as the ground for action




    2


    : a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences




    3


    : the antecedent clause of a conditional statement


     

    3. Its Radiocarbon dating, and it only works on organic matter up to about 65k years old. When talking about fossilised matter we are talking about things the age of dinosaur bones, which is like 60 million years too old for radiocarbon dating to work on.

    4. You imply that science only exists on matters you can fully control. You just eliminated the field of human sciences, congratulations.

     

    Also, i do not think you understand how proving a fact works. You keep marking up sentences of mine and pretend they prove something, when that only proves you have no idea how proving something works.

     

    The proper way to disprove something is this:

    1. Vato26 claimed in the first paragraph of his reply that hypothesis are based on past studies.

    2. According to The ecological detective: confronting models with data by Ray Hilborn and Marc Mangel(ISBN 978-0-691-03497-3 p.24) a hypothesis is an unproven theory, proposition or supposition thats tentatively accepted to form the basis for further investigation. A claim that is further backed up by Websters dictionary(Neufeldt and Guralnik 1991), which expressly defines the difference between a theory and a hypothesis in the lack of support for an explanation in the latter. Both strongly imply that the hypothesis is the foundation a study is built upon, and not a requirement of it.

    3. There is also a logical fallacy in his statement insofar as that if studies are required for a hypothesis, and a hypothesis in turn is being required for studies, neither could exist.

    4 Conclusion: Considering some very limited investigation in the matter at hand, logical deduction, and his complete lack of sources for his claims, i believe Vato26 to be incorrect on the very core of his hypothesis on the nature of the same.

    {mod edit}

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Vrika

    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by Rocketeer


    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by Rocketeer


    Originally posted by Vato26

    That is false.  Server loads =! server populations.  Server loads measure how full the servers are.  It doesn't measure the number of people on the server.  Thus, it doesn't measure server populations.

    Scientists also focus on controlling extraneous variables so that their tests measure what they want to measure.  There are absolutely no controls set up outside of X-fire.  Thus, using X-fire statistics outside of X-fire means they are inherently invalid.  And, using invalid data means that your conclusion on that invalid data is invalid.  No matter how much you want it to be so, it's still completely invalid.

    Also, thanks for proving your agenda via the red.  Keep on using your invalid data in any way you can so you can fulfill your self-serving agenda.

    Wrong part in red, ofc you can still be right even with faulty data. You can even be right without any kind of data to back you up. Its called coincidence. Its actually quite common, infact the less data you use to form your opinion, and the simpler your thesis, the greater the chance to be right by coincidence <-- hypothesis right there. One example of that would be old greeks postulating the existance of atoms, but there are probably hundreds more.  That is false.  If you gave that same statement to any form of the scientific community you would be laughed out of the room.

    That is your opinion, proof?

    No, it's a fact.  Having no data to back up a hypothesis makes the hypothesis a pure guess.  Hypothesis are built upon past studies.  Therefore, they are not purely a guess.  Again, you'd be laughed out of the room if you provided a baseless hypothesis (guess) to a any form of scientific community.

    Thats also why a proper scientific approach always first and foremost focuses around creating a hypothesis and trying to disprove it by finding a case where it not applies. Exactly because discrediting the source is not proof of a hypothesis being wrong, after all it could still be right by coincidence! If you can find no way to disprove a hypothesis, then it stands. Doesn't mean its right, contrary to popular belief scientist are not so arrogant that they assume they are always right, but its still a valid thesis.

    Thesis is also based on past scientific studies or the premise of the current study with controls in place to prevent as much extraneous variables as possible from preventing the scientists from measuring the results that they are aiming to measure.  When using X-fire statistics within X-fire, there are controls in place (required usage of X-fire to actually record the hours played).  However, there are absolutely no controls in place outside of X-fire when applying X-fire statistics outside of X-fire. 

    You are confusing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thesis_%28academic_document%29 with http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis. Here is a quote for you:

    "People refer to a trial solution to a problem as a hypothesis, often called an "educated guess"[7][8] because it provides a suggested solution based on the evidence. Experimenters may test and reject several hypotheses before solving the problem."

    Sounds exactly like what im talking about, the experimental part is where we just see how it goes by comparing the data from xfire with actual changes like new servers opening/old closing, official numbers etc.

    Hypothesis are based on past studies.  Studies that have controls built into them to measure the variables that the scientist wants to measure by removing as many of the extraneous variables as possible.  There are absolutely no controls present to prevent extraneous variables from interfering with trying to use X-fire statistics outside of the X-fire userbase.  Which, makes this a pure guess rather than an educated guess.  Thus, it has no validity.  That's a fact.

    Control is the prime part of measuring statistics.  Lack of those controls = lack of any form of validity as there's no controls in place to prevent extraneous variables from altering what the person is trying to measure.  That is something that the X-fire Fan brigade can't comprehend.

    Ofc having full control helps immensely with the accuracy of statistics, nobody denies that. But if full control is impossible you make do with the next best thing and simply append a proper +- derivation to your data to make people aware of its limitations. If you don't know the derivation you guess it based on the information available, an example would be archelogist judging the age of very old fossilised organic materials, the derivation can be millions of years. And yeah sometimes you can be totally wrong because there where extraneous variables you didn't know about, but that shouldn't prevent you from trying anyway.

    You do not understand control when it comes to science.  The blue highlighted phrase proves that.  Using a +- derivation without actual scientific evidence to back it up is nothing more than an arbitrary guess.  Again, further shoving it to the side of guessing rather than science.  As to the red highlight, Archeologists use carbon dating, which is quite accurate, and an evolutionary chart that is further validated by carbon dating and geological evidence to back up their science.  They don't go nilly-willy guessing that you are trying to claim they do.....

     

     

     

    You are trying to apply scientific methods from hard sciences to soft sciences.

    Controlled environments and eliminating extraneous variables is good when studying simple human behaviour or interactions. But assuming you took a group of XFire users and non-XFire users into a controlled environment and eliminated all extraneous variables. You might well end up eliminating also the reason why one group started using XFire and the other did not in the first place. You'd have taken the human decision (to play SWTOR or to not to play) out of its normal context, and due to differences between the normal context with XFire users and non-XFire users, any results you'd gain in controlled environment would cease to apply to the groups you just studied when you'd let them out of that controlled environmen and into the open world with all its variables.

    No, that's completely false.  Extraneous variables are there to mess with the actual variables that scientists want to measure.  That is why controls are in place... to prevent as many extraneous variables as possible.  To make the claim that the scientist would be eliminating the variable they want to measure because they are controlling their study is completely wrong.  It's statistics 101.

    When predicting human behaviour in mass scale it's not possible to create the required controlled environments and take every variable into account. You're stuck with using statistics, polls, your own knowledge of human nature. And you can only verify your results with more statistics, polls, observations and inductive reasoning.

    First off, you are the one that is saying "every".  I said, "as many as possible".

     

    PS. And you've build so large a quote pyramid with so many colors, that there's no way for me to tell who has said what in your discussion.  Your point?

     

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Rocketeer

    @Vato

    1. You are making a prediction of the behaviour of a hypothetical room full of hypothetical scientists and predict their reaction, you are spouting nonsense.  False.  Scientists would laugh you out of a room if you tried to present your statement of coincidences without actual proof.  Again, you truly do not understand the scientific method.

    2. You do not understand what a Hypothesis is.


    Definition of HYPOTHESIS




    1


    a : an assumption or concession made for the sake of argument b : an interpretation of a practical situation or condition taken as the ground for action




    2


    : a tentative assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences




    3


    : the antecedent clause of a conditional statement


    Hypothesis is based on past tests and data.

    3. Its Radiocarbon dating, and it only works on organic matter up to about 65k years old. When talking about fossilised matter we are talking about things the age of dinosaur bones, which is like 60 million years too old for radiocarbon dating to work on.

    4. You imply that science only exists on matters you can fully control. You just eliminated the field of human sciences, congratulations.  Again, spouting more falsehoods.  Because, I never stated that.  Thanks for showing us that you will actively engage in Libel.  Who's insulting whom now?

     

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Rocketeer

    Also, i do not think you understand how proving a fact works. You keep marking up sentences of mine and pretend they prove something, when that only proves you have no idea how proving something works.

     

    The proper way to disprove something is this:

    1. Vato26 claimed in the first paragraph of his reply that hypothesis are based on past studies.

    2. According to The ecological detective: confronting models with data by Ray Hilborn and Marc Mangel(ISBN 978-0-691-03497-3 p.24) a hypothesis is an unproven theory, proposition or supposition thats tentatively accepted to form the basis for further investigation. A claim that is further backed up by Websters dictionary(Neufeldt and Guralnik 1991), which expressly defines the difference between a theory and a hypothesis in the lack of support for an explanation in the latter. Both strongly imply that the hypothesis is the foundation a study is built upon, and not a requirement of it.

    3. There is also a logical fallacy in his statement insofar as that if studies are required for a hypothesis, and a hypothesis in turn is being required for studies, neither could exist.

    4 Conclusion: Considering some very limited investigation in the matter at hand, logical deduction, and his complete lack of sources for his claims, i believe Vato26 to be incorrect on the very core of his hypothesis on the nature of the same.

     

    [Removed Flaming attempt]

    First off, Merrian Webster dictionary does not define words when it comes to the scientific community.  Yes, each scientific community has their own phrases and words that are commonly understoond between that community.  Words that the common-person would not understand.

    Second, that was printed in '97.  Science has changed quite a bit since then.

    A hypothesis is based on past studies and data.  No matter how much you want to deny this, when it comes to the scientific community it is a FACT.

    Third, to claim that there is logical fallacy towards someone when no logical fallacy is present is intellectually dishonest.

    To add to that, your constant usage of insults against me speaks volumes.

  • VrikaVrika FinlandPosts: 2,576Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Vato26

    Originally posted by Vrika

    You are trying to apply scientific methods from hard sciences to soft sciences.

    Controlled environments and eliminating extraneous variables is good when studying simple human behaviour or interactions. But assuming you took a group of XFire users and non-XFire users into a controlled environment and eliminated all extraneous variables. You might well end up eliminating also the reason why one group started using XFire and the other did not in the first place. You'd have taken the human decision (to play SWTOR or to not to play) out of its normal context, and due to differences between the normal context with XFire users and non-XFire users, any results you'd gain in controlled environment would cease to apply to the groups you just studied when you'd let them out of that controlled environmen and into the open world with all its variables.

    No, that's completely false.  Extraneous variables are there to mess with the actual variables that scientists want to measure.  That is why controls are in place... to prevent as many extraneous variables as possible.  To make the claim that the scientist would be eliminating the variable they want to measure because they are controlling their study is completely wrong.  It's statistics 101.

    Let's pretend that you want to compare how much XFire users play SWTOR, vs. how much non-XFire users play SWTOR.

    Can you give me one example of extraneous variable you'd eliminate, and tell me how you'd do that + why it's okay to eliminate that variable?

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Vrika

    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by Vrika

    You are trying to apply scientific methods from hard sciences to soft sciences.

    Controlled environments and eliminating extraneous variables is good when studying simple human behaviour or interactions. But assuming you took a group of XFire users and non-XFire users into a controlled environment and eliminated all extraneous variables. You might well end up eliminating also the reason why one group started using XFire and the other did not in the first place. You'd have taken the human decision (to play SWTOR or to not to play) out of its normal context, and due to differences between the normal context with XFire users and non-XFire users, any results you'd gain in controlled environment would cease to apply to the groups you just studied when you'd let them out of that controlled environmen and into the open world with all its variables.

    No, that's completely false.  Extraneous variables are there to mess with the actual variables that scientists want to measure.  That is why controls are in place... to prevent as many extraneous variables as possible.  To make the claim that the scientist would be eliminating the variable they want to measure because they are controlling their study is completely wrong.  It's statistics 101.

    Let's pretend that you want to compare how much XFire users play SWTOR, vs. how much non-XFire users play SWTOR.

    Can you give me one example of extraneous variable you'd eliminate, and tell me how you'd do that + why it's okay to eliminate that variable?

    I'm not required to do such as I'm not the one who's trying to apply statistics outside of their intended scope (their scope being within the X-fire userbase).  You, and people such as yourself are the ones who are trying to apply these statistics outside of their intended scope.  Therefore, it is upon you to provide evidence to support your standing and show that these statistics do not lose validity because they are outside their intended scope.

    Anyways, I can name quite a few extraneous variables that invalidates these X-fire statistics when used outside their intended scope:



    1. What percent of the total gaming population actually uses X-fire?


    2. What percent of the SWTOR gaming population actually uses X-fire?


    3. It has been shown that SWTOR has problems being recorded by X-fire.


    Those are only a few.  If I had more time to sit and think on it, I could come up with a whole lot more.


     


    Anyways, as I stated, the burden of proof is upon you since you are the ones trying to apply X-fire statistics outside their intended scope.

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Steady decline going on, yesterday highest in the week, 8500 players and 48.650h, 10.400  less than last sunday.

  • toddzetoddze no where, OKPosts: 2,155Member

    The x-fire stats have some validity to them, its shown trends in every game, its been righ on target in the past. It does show a rough trend. But you dont need x-fire to see that game is dropping subs. You also dont need a crystal ball to see where its going. Theres been ample amount of these over simplified mmo's  released , you see the trend clear as day from them. This game has nothing to distinguish itself from the rest of the pack. Its as predictable as the sun rising.

    Waiting for:EQ-Next, ArcheAge (not so much anymore)
    Now Playing: N/A
    Worst MMO: FFXIV
    Favorite MMO: FFXI

  • DistasteDistaste Lancaster, PAPosts: 667Member

    Originally posted by Vato26

    I'm not required to do such as I'm not the one who's trying to apply statistics outside of their intended scope (their scope being within the X-fire userbase).  You, and people such as yourself are the ones who are trying to apply these statistics outside of their intended scope.  Therefore, it is upon you to provide evidence to support your standing and show that these statistics do not lose validity because they are outside their intended scope.

    Anyways, I can name quite a few extraneous variables that invalidates these X-fire statistics when used outside their intended scope:



    1. What percent of the total gaming population actually uses X-fire?


    2. What percent of the SWTOR gaming population actually uses X-fire?


    3. It has been shown that SWTOR has problems being recorded by X-fire.


    Those are only a few.  If I had more time to sit and think on it, I could come up with a whole lot more.


     


    Anyways, as I stated, the burden of proof is upon you since you are the ones trying to apply X-fire statistics outside their intended scope.

    The purpose of this thread is to discuss how SWTOR is doing based on Xfire. We aren't saying that Xfire is the greatest data source, nor are we saying any of the conclusions are infallible or 100% accurate. If this thread were about how SWTOR is doing based on infallible data and we used Xfire then you could come in "Show me real prroof" a blazing, BUT we aren't. If you don't like Xfire or it's statisics then get out, this discussion is not for you.

    Just to drag this on further since you'll stay here continually shouting "PROOF!!!!", it's already been shown several times that Xfire is fairly accurate outside of it's intended scope. It has accurately shown population trends in WAR, AoC, RIFT, AION, and many others. What you need to do now is explain how Xfire could be accurate for those games but isn't for SWTOR. Oh and I'll expect data/proof from reliable sources :P.

  • AG-VukAG-Vuk Phoenix, AZPosts: 823Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by toddze

    The x-fire stats have some validity to them, its shown trends in every game, its been righ on target in the past. It does show a rough trend. But you dont need x-fire to see that game is dropping subs. You also dont need a crystal ball to see where its going. Theres been ample amount of these over simplified mmo's  released , you see the trend clear as day from them. This game has nothing to distinguish itself from the rest of the pack. Its as predictable as the sun rising.

     You're correct in that it shows a trend , to a degree. A lot of what you say is valid as opinion . X-fire though as a statisical indicator is extremely poor and therefore higly subjective only because the sample size and population is not controlled. I always get a chuckle when I see these posts , because simply . Numbers are always open to manipulation and can be used to show anything one desires. Population drops are common in MMO's , I'd say a 20 to 30 % drop can be expected in a good game after release , more then 50 % and I suspect the game will have real problems. IMO. Without the release of sub numbers it's impossible to estimate the health of a game. I'd say it's pretty safe to say that the majority of games peak at release, there are always exceptions. The real bar is where they sit at the 6 mo , 1 year stage then 2y and 5 y benchmarks. ( for MMO's )

    image
  • teoyaomiquiteoyaomiqui Broolyn, NYPosts: 98Member

    Originally posted by AG-Vuk

    Originally posted by toddze

    The x-fire stats have some validity to them, its shown trends in every game, its been righ on target in the past. It does show a rough trend. But you dont need x-fire to see that game is dropping subs. You also dont need a crystal ball to see where its going. Theres been ample amount of these over simplified mmo's  released , you see the trend clear as day from them. This game has nothing to distinguish itself from the rest of the pack. Its as predictable as the sun rising.

     You're correct in that it shows a trend , to a degree. A lot of what you say is valid as opinion . X-fire though as a statisical indicator is extremely poor and therefore higly subjective only because the sample size and population is not controlled. I always get a chuckle when I see these posts , because simply . Numbers are always open to manipulation and can be used to show anything one desires. Population drops are common in MMO's , I'd say a 20 to 30 % drop can be expected in a good game after release , more then 50 % and I suspect the game will have real problems. IMO. Without the release of sub numbers it's impossible to estimate the health of a game. I'd say it's pretty safe to say that the majority of games peak at release, there are always exceptions. The real bar is where they sit at the 6 mo , 1 year stage then 2y and 5 y benchmarks. ( for MMO's )

    I don't see how it is true for a great new MMO, but I agree that it is true for a medicore MMO.

    Example how I see medicore MMO subscribtion model works: I buy it, i think, well it's alright, I play it for a month, i drop it, tell friends, the game is alright, but nothing interesting.

    Example of how I see great new MMO would go: I buy it, i like it, i resub, I tell my friends, what a great game it is, they try it, sub numbers go up.

    But you are right on another topic, the real bar is at 6-12month, and with numbers dropping each week, i don't think they will break 12 month bar with positive balance.

     

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Steady decline going on, yesterday highest in the week, 8500 players and 48.650h, 10.400  less than last sunday.

    Only within X-fire.

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Distaste

    Originally posted by Vato26



    I'm not required to do such as I'm not the one who's trying to apply statistics outside of their intended scope (their scope being within the X-fire userbase).  You, and people such as yourself are the ones who are trying to apply these statistics outside of their intended scope.  Therefore, it is upon you to provide evidence to support your standing and show that these statistics do not lose validity because they are outside their intended scope.

    Anyways, I can name quite a few extraneous variables that invalidates these X-fire statistics when used outside their intended scope:



    1. What percent of the total gaming population actually uses X-fire?


    2. What percent of the SWTOR gaming population actually uses X-fire?


    3. It has been shown that SWTOR has problems being recorded by X-fire.


    Those are only a few.  If I had more time to sit and think on it, I could come up with a whole lot more.


     


    Anyways, as I stated, the burden of proof is upon you since you are the ones trying to apply X-fire statistics outside their intended scope.

    The purpose of this thread is to discuss how SWTOR is doing based on Xfire. We aren't saying that Xfire is the greatest data source, nor are we saying any of the conclusions are infallible or 100% accurate. If this thread were about how SWTOR is doing based on infallible data and we used Xfire then you could come in "Show me real prroof" a blazing, BUT we aren't. If you don't like Xfire or it's statisics then get out, this discussion is not for you.

    Just to drag this on further since you'll stay here continually shouting "PROOF!!!!", it's already been shown several times that Xfire is fairly accurate outside of it's intended scope. It has accurately shown population trends in WAR, AoC, RIFT, AION, and many others. What you need to do now is explain how Xfire could be accurate for those games but isn't for SWTOR. Oh and I'll expect data/proof from reliable sources :P.

    Blue:  No, I will not.  Because the X-fire fans are trying to use this outside of the scope of the X-fire statistics.  Which is improper use of statistical analysis.  Thus, I am free to speak up on the facts that they are improperly using these statistics.

    Red:  No it hasn't.  I have called for actual graphical proof with actual data.  The X-fire fans never provided them.  So, no, you have proved no such thing.

     

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by teoyaomiqui

    Originally posted by AG-Vuk


    Originally posted by toddze

    The x-fire stats have some validity to them, its shown trends in every game, its been righ on target in the past. It does show a rough trend. But you dont need x-fire to see that game is dropping subs. You also dont need a crystal ball to see where its going. Theres been ample amount of these over simplified mmo's  released , you see the trend clear as day from them. This game has nothing to distinguish itself from the rest of the pack. Its as predictable as the sun rising.

     You're correct in that it shows a trend , to a degree. A lot of what you say is valid as opinion . X-fire though as a statisical indicator is extremely poor and therefore higly subjective only because the sample size and population is not controlled. I always get a chuckle when I see these posts , because simply . Numbers are always open to manipulation and can be used to show anything one desires. Population drops are common in MMO's , I'd say a 20 to 30 % drop can be expected in a good game after release , more then 50 % and I suspect the game will have real problems. IMO. Without the release of sub numbers it's impossible to estimate the health of a game. I'd say it's pretty safe to say that the majority of games peak at release, there are always exceptions. The real bar is where they sit at the 6 mo , 1 year stage then 2y and 5 y benchmarks. ( for MMO's )

    I don't see how it is true for a great new MMO, but I agree that it is true for a medicore MMO.

    Example how I see medicore MMO subscribtion model works: I buy it, i think, well it's alright, I play it for a month, i drop it, tell friends, the game is alright, but nothing interesting.

    Example of how I see great new MMO would go: I buy it, i like it, i resub, I tell my friends, what a great game it is, they try it, sub numbers go up.

    But you are right on another topic, the real bar is at 6-12month, and with numbers dropping each week, i don't think they will break 12 month bar with positive balance.

     

    Yet, that is your opinion.  I, and many others are enjoying the game, will resub, and will tell our friends our experiences in the game and why we enjoy it.  Just because you think a game is mediocre does not mean the game is actually mediocre.

     

    As to your "6-12 month" bar.... well, we've all seen these before.  The doom 'n gloomers first said "1 month"... and, when that didn't happen, now you are all saying "6 to 12 months".  And, if that doesn't happen, then you'll spout out "18 to 24 months". 

    It's a continual cycle that has been seen for countless MMORPGs that the doom 'n gloomers hate.

This discussion has been closed.