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Current Graphs Showing Decline - (Found something interesting).

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  • StoneRosesStoneRoses Seattle, WAPosts: 1,066Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Professor78

    Yes I know Xfire is is a small snippet that just gives an indication of trends. But its being used in this thread so will comtimue to refer to it.

    So in regards again to all this "the holiday's are over thats why all games play time drops"

    I disagree with the Holiday rubbish, but agree with other points that all games lose players after lauch, and this is the only thing we are seeing...

    Here are examples, - "There is no holiday-over activity drops"

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/641/playtimez.jpg/

    Awesome, more graphs!

    When I was unemployed the line was up a little, just a smig, actually it probably wasn't significant.

    image

  • DM19DM19 billings, MTPosts: 120Member

    Lol who needs graphs just look at your server i know mine has lost half and still going down  just by looking at the number of people on the planets

     

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon

    So we have two statistics present and we have at least two ways to look at them to make speculations about the games population based on them. Lets disregard the still disputed/long discredited validation of them for this time.





    Option 1)

    First you lets ignore the fact neither of these graphs is actually displaying anything directly related to the population of the game, but instead show player activity and accumulated playtime, assuming any other reason other than "population loss" couldn't exsists or is irrelevant for a decline in the displayed playeractivity or playtime, like for example people simply spending relative less time per day on the game a month after  buying it or weeks later (not everyone bought it at launch) and stopped with the overnighters/4-10 hour session which are not really the rule. Or i.e. holidays ending. Or well, simply both of them.



    Just for the sake of its lets completely feign ignorance of the fact swarena stats are not even based on the real playeractivity, but the server exhaust (High, Full, Normal etc) using fictional replacement variables to distinguish the relative height of exhaust of the server, thus only vaguely and indirectly represents amplitude of real playeractivity. (i.e 1=Low doesnt neccesarily mean 5 times less than Full=5)



    Secondly, just ignore the existence of such things like "weekends" and "work/school days" to assume the correlation of the frequent fluctations, the "little ups and downs" in both graphs, is not the simple result of changing weekdays, which every game faces in the same way, but must directly result from the coincidence of both graphs tracking data about the same game, thus "validify" each others "accuracy about the game", while its left open for what exactly "about the game", only to be slipped into another context right below.



    Finally you use both of these as premises to fabricate an argument to sell the graphs as "accurately" (2nd fail) representing "analogue" trends to the "games population"(1st fail) to proclaim analogue drop of population.









    Option 2)



    Realize both these graphs do not even represent the population.

    Simply look right at the xfire population stats instead and compare the trends.



    Realize they didnt actually drop anywhere significantly/at all since launch/peak. THE END...



    (Alternative route: Ignore the results because they dont suit your agenda or what you want to hear. Look for something else.



    You just learned the basic concept of modern coorporate funded "scientific proof")

     





    And I dont even get the people who pretend "there are no holiday activity drops". Is it not fucking obvious when looking at the playtime graphs of almost all "popular" games, going steadily down about 5-10% since Christmas, with exception of those running some "free2play" events lately? Its like "hey the white line is the one straight horizontal! The red line is NOT and its dipping below the angle of that straight horizontal white one very clearly... so its dropping." - "What? Hu? Cant hear you! Nothing dropped except SWTOR! They remained all stable! lalalalalalala!" At that point any argument is pretty much worthless.[Insert blue/red sky anology]



    And welcome to basic logic. When two or more postulated factors individually do not explain the results, doesnt mean you can discredit both or all of them as factors in general, when the result could as well be met by interferrence of them. There is more than one single factor affecting playtime, not just the "population loss" you want to see at the end of your tunnelvision. Just because one alone may not be enough to explain the whole trend doesnt mean its invalid and completely disregardable.



     

  • DecoyTrooperDecoyTrooper Baltimore, MDPosts: 239Member

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Yep. As expected, first month is ending for most people and by the end of the month we should be seeing atleast a 50% drop in both these graphs.

    Fans will ofcourse say the graphs shows nothing but we know better.

     

    ^this and /thread

  • JimyHumuHumuJimyHumuHumu BilbaoPosts: 250Member

    Originally posted by TJixlee

    i cant wait till all the negative ppl leave and move on. then i can enjoy the game along with MANY others

     

    Yep same happened to WaR, Aion, CoH, you name it. In the end, only the chosen few get to enjoy the game while everyone else moves on. Also, youre right, negative people should move on and stop posting negative stuff about the game. From now on, only positive stuff shall be posted.

     

    ps: im still playing the game, so i suppose i should wait til my sub runs out to start posting negative stuff about tor :P

  • OmnifishOmnifish LondonPosts: 616Member

    Originally posted by Caldicot

    What's the big deal? Of course a large enough sample is going to provide data to draw general conclusions from. It's basic statistics. Using two independent sources provides even more reliable data. The conclusion to be drawn from this example is that SWTOR is in decline at the moment. Are there any numbers that says anything other than that?

    The 'big deal' is that it fits in with a number of posters view that the game is dying because they want it to.  They think it should die because it doesn't appeal to them so by god it's dead!

     

    Fact of the matter is those, 'sources', are faulty in calculating subscription numbers.  SWArena itself says it's on their site that it no way of testing what subnumbers are due to the changes in server caps/so on, (someones already posted this and the OP hasn't been back since because it ruins he's argument no doubt).  Xfire is used by a tiny percentage of gamers, people on these boards have been saying for years how, 'Xfire proves this X game is dying!!!', and every time there wrong, why? because more people don't use the application then do, so it proves little.

     

    Face facts the games going to be around for a while.  I'm sure many of you don't like that but your going to have to get over it.  Constantly posting these threads about, 'the game should/is dead!', won't make it happen because you want it to and pulling up graphs with questionable sourcing won't make it happen either.  

    This looks like a job for....The Riviera Kid!

  • fiontarfiontar Dana, MAPosts: 3,719Member

    I think they will be lucky to have a 55% retention rate at the end of the free month. That still leaves a lot of players, but the big question will be what the retention rates are moving forward and how much they get offest by new players.

    I just don't see anything about the MMO aspects of this game that signal retention rates superior to the average AAA title released in the last five years, which would equal a pretty steady decline and the need for server merges by the end of year one.

    I think TOR may have an advantage in getting people who bought the game to buy at least one paid month. For those who really like the storyline and avoid PVP and Endgame, there is probably enough RPG story content to keep many happy for two months, or even more. However, for everyone, once Story content loses what ever benefit it holds for particular players, I think the game just does not offer enough as an MMO to maintain long term retention.

    If the drop off now that the free month has ended is as steep as other AAA titles, TOR may be in real trouble, because their "Zero Month" retention should benefit a lot from the story content.

    Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
    image

  • RocketeerRocketeer NachrodtPosts: 1,304Member

    @Sukiyaki

    Mostly true, but in all fairness holidays and other seasonal stuff could be filtered by doing a relative comparsion to other games, f.e. if pop stable mmo xy drops by 10% and ToR drops by 15% you could say holidays make up about 10% of the decline.

    Personally im going with the theory of people adapting saner game times though, i do know many people pull all nighters etc on new MMOs, lord knows there are enough 50s complaining of being done with content ...

     

    That being said, there is an xfire phenomenom that i call "crash and burn". I have witnessed it with Warhammer, AoC and STO, there was a very steep decline visible on xfire even during the free month and as we know in hindsight this was indeed a sign of things to come. This was not the case for SWTOR, but we will see how many of the xfire users will continue their sub in about a week.

  • mgilbrtsnmgilbrtsn belleville, ILPosts: 1,710Member Uncommon

    Made up graph, correct graph makes no difference to the overall fact.  SWTOR numbers have declined.  I don't need all these fandangeled graphs, and xfire and what not.  I know it because it's just plain common sense.  A game comes out, it is very hyped and everyone rushes to buy.  All these hyped MMO'ers play and a natural selection process begins where it weeds out the uninformed, the over enthusiastic, and the simple 'meh, its not for me'.  A natural evolutionary process that all games go through.   Yes, Yes, lets bring up WoW.  I would submit that's an outlier and not part of the norm.

    Concentrate on enjoying yourself, and not on why I shouldn't enjoy myself.

  • Professor78Professor78 TamworthPosts: 588Member

    Originally posted by Sukiyaki





    And I dont even get the people who pretend "there are no holiday activity drops". Is it not fucking obvious when looking at the playtime graphs of almost all "popular" games, going steadily down about 5-10% since Christmas, with exception of those running some "free2play" events lately? Its like "hey the white line is the one straight horizontal! The red line is NOT and its dipping below the angle of that straight horizontal white one very clearly... so its dropping." - "What? Hu? Cant hear you! Nothing dropped except SWTOR! They remained all stable! lalalalalalala!" At that point any argument is pretty much worthless.[Insert blue/red sky anology]



     

    The point I was trying to make with the my graphs was that the people saying "SWTOR is only losing people because of the holiday periods" - is not correct. And I directly answered a question about "show me a game that has not dropped on Xfire"

    I did....

    Core i7(d0)on Foxconn Bloodrage, 6gb Tri DDR3,GTX 680, 120gb OCZ Vertex 2 SSD, 640gb Caviar Black, Windows 7, HAF 932 case, 24" Full HD Dell, Logitech G19, Rat 9, 50mb BB.

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by Teala

    Originally posted by Zeal77

    Hi. I've been playing MMO's since 1999. I have never heard of xfire, I have never used xfire. I play SWTOR. There are millions of folks like me who don't use/ have never heard of xfire and play MMO's. I think there may be a flaw in your data/ assumptions.

    So..you have never heard of it.  20+ million other people have.   :)  Yes, xfire has 20+ million registered users.   Now whether all 20+ million are still registered..it kind of blows your "There are millions of folks like me who don't use/ have never heard of xfire and play MMO's" all to pieces.

    Actually, it doesn't.  20 million is a small portion of the probable total gaming population.

  • Vato26Vato26 BFE, MOPosts: 3,930Member

    Originally posted by pharazonic

    Originally posted by Slowdoves


    Originally posted by pharazonic


    Originally posted by jpnz

    I'm sure the fact the holiday season is over for people that work has nothing to do with this. XD

    I wasn't able to login the past 2 days due to work. :(

    Believe it or not but MMORPGs get more play during work weeks as opposed to holidays. 

    Summers and Christmas/New Years are the slow, lull periods in MMOs. 

     

    Really?

    I dunno, there are a lot of kids and College kids out of school!

    Really. 

    Holidays see the rise of school kids playing and the fall of college kids/adults

     

    That's a pure guess on your part.

  • AmjocoAmjoco Layton, UTPosts: 4,778Member Uncommon

    The decline to me won't matter. People who have looked forward to the game and are big fans are all that will and should be left to play. A few will be held for a while until some of the new big names coming go gold.  GW2 is in my opinion going to suck up a lot of players from many of the other MMO's due to it being something totally different and being f2p. I'm not a fanboy of GW2 but I read a lot on different MMOs and it just makes sense.

    I'm loving this game so far and it has so many awesome qualities. If we are knocked down to just a few servers with dedicated players so be it, the are the ones I wanted to play next to and against anyway! 

    Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.

  • DeaconXDeaconX Toronto, ONPosts: 3,067Member

    {mod edit}

     

    .... but seriously, it's not all too surprising.  I still wish BioWare all the best with the game but just from what I've seen from the people I know (and there are quite a few) who got the game, there were very few who felt great about the game while most felt lukewarm (see what I did there?) at best.

    I won't claim to know the numbers, but quite simply, if those graphs are fairly accurate it simply doesn't surprise me.

    image

    Why do I write, create, fantasize, dream and daydream about other worlds? Because I hate what humanity does with this one.

    BOYCOTTING EA / ORIGIN going forward.

  • sgelsgel HeraklionPosts: 1,081Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Amjoco

      GW2 is in my opinion going to suck up a lot of players from many of the other MMO's due to it being something totally different and being f2p. 

    GW2 is not f2p, it's b2p.

    How many times does it need to be said?

    ..Cake..

  • AlotAlot BredaPosts: 1,948Member

    Originally posted by sgel

    Originally posted by Amjoco

      GW2 is in my opinion going to suck up a lot of players from many of the other MMO's due to it being something totally different and being f2p. 

    GW2 is not f2p, it's b2p.

    How many times does it need to be said?

    12.7 times a day. 

  • FdzzaiglFdzzaigl Somewhere in nowherePosts: 2,323Member Uncommon

    I'd bet you'd see a similar decline followed by a gradual stabilisation at a new population level for any subscription MMO out there.

    I don't think anyone expected them to keep on to all people after the first month.

    Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon

    You know... just on a sidenote

     

    some of the WoW fanbois here jumping on the hate train insisting the "playtime" graphs on xfire equal "population" trends, should be very cautious of what kind of nonsensical speculation about "massive losses" they support and hype.

    Just noticed WoW (with currently 73.522h) just dropped below SWToRs on its record three weeks ago (with 80.742h on Jan 02) and also the day before. WoW lost a quarter of accumulated hours since beginning of the first month.

    And WoW currently just has twice the number of xfire player and not even twice the number of accumulated played hours left compared to SWToR.

     

    Oh wait. I forgot the same guys here pounding on xfire would happily dismiss it without a whim 5minutes later in another post...

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Seems there starts to be a discrepancy. Arena hardly showed any difference after first payment, while xFire use decresed a lot.

  • spizzspizz BlackForrestPosts: 2,587Member

    This is a another webpage with graphs taken from swtor servers

     

    http://www.torstatus.net/shards/eu/trends

    http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

  • GibboniciGibbonici LeedsPosts: 472Member Common

    Originally posted by mgilbrtsn

    Made up graph, correct graph makes no difference to the overall fact.  SWTOR numbers have declined.  I don't need all these fandangeled graphs, and xfire and what not.  I know it because it's just plain common sense.  A game comes out, it is very hyped and everyone rushes to buy.  All these hyped MMO'ers play and a natural selection process begins where it weeds out the uninformed, the over enthusiastic, and the simple 'meh, its not for me'.  A natural evolutionary process that all games go through.   Yes, Yes, lets bring up WoW.  I would submit that's an outlier and not part of the norm.

    That pretty much sums it up. We see it with every game that's come out lately and for some reason it's DOOOM groundhog day every time it happens.

     

    Over time people will leave, people will stay and people will join. Things will get fixed, things will get added and things will get broken and nerfed. There will be drama and outrage along the way and they'll be excitement and pleasure. In short, TOR's lifecycle will be perfectly normal.

  • illorionillorion Beckley, WVPosts: 467Member

    Originally posted by sgel

    Originally posted by Amjoco

      GW2 is in my opinion going to suck up a lot of players from many of the other MMO's due to it being something totally different and being f2p. 

    GW2 is not f2p, it's b2p.

    How many times does it need to be said?

    Probably as often as that point needs to be countered I supposed.

    I don't know about all of you... but i certainly DO NOT have the time to invest into two different MMO's. When I played WoW thats all I played was WoW. When I played Darkfall that was all I played was darkfall.

    So even thought SWTOR and GW2 are two different payment models it has no bearing on whether or no GW2 will affect subs... because it most certainly will.

    I know that if I was still playing SWTOR when GW2 came out and GW2 was obviously better than SWTOR (which it will be IMO but we just have to wait and see) than I would definatly stop play SWTOR and go to GW2... because I have a job and  life. I only have to time to invest in one MMO.

    Edit: Plus MMO's have become like sports... people pick a team and stick with them

    "Don't mistake a fun game for a good game... Checkers is fun to play but its not exactly the highest point of gaming design... and definatly not worth $60 plus $15 a month"

  • smh_alotsmh_alot Area 51Posts: 976Member
    Originally posted by spizz

    This is a another webpage with graphs taken from swtor servers
     
    http://www.torstatus.net/shards/eu/trends
    http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

     

    From the owner of that site you linked:

    "accumulated population index has nothing to do with the number of players!" -_-


    Seems like the creators of those charts on both sites are more knowledgeable in the data they collect than most people linking to it >.>




    ... then again, when people keep posting flawed or incorrect information, it leads to reason that people like that have another agenda than just posting objective data.

    As for the charts, server load status has changed over the weeks, if 2000-2500 registered as 'full' a couple of weeks ago, the same amount'll register as 'heavy' or 'very heavy' now.

    Besides that, server status doesn't mean the same for all servers: 'full' on 1 server can be 'very heavy' on another with the same number of players.
  • spizzspizz BlackForrestPosts: 2,587Member

    This is interesting, most decline of players are actually on pvp servers...its understandable.

     

    hthttp://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/stats

    http://www.torstatus.net/shards/eu/stats

This discussion has been closed.