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EA falls on broker concerns about 'Star Wars'

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  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member

    Originally posted by Shadanwolf

    I hoped this game would be a success.Heck I even spent $60  for the game. Listening to thousands of voices giving their input on a game is not easy. Knowing your game is not finished and there is nothing for 50 levels to do is something even I can do(yet Biowares high paid decision makers can't).

    Knowing RVR on illum isn't finised and playable takes a 3 minute phone call to the team responsible....and it wasen't made...or worse yet the decision maker decided it wasen't important enough to finish at or right after launch.

     

    Enough already ............ time to walk away from this incomplete broken  game and look forward.

    Well, I am still enjoying it as a single player game. Not sure for how long though but it is good that some people have noticed the SW:TOR is a subpar MMORPG.

  • SpottyGekkoSpottyGekko RotterdamPosts: 3,845Member Uncommon

    EA still have quite a bit of wiggle room, I think.

     

    Q4 closed at end December, so all the goodness of the initial sales rush is in there. Those numbers have yet to be released, and EA will play them for all it's worth.

     

    You can expect pretty good numbers for Q4. But of course, "pretty good numbers" mean jack if the expectations were that they were going to be "absolutely staggering numbers". If the market expected 3M total sales, and they sold only 1.5M, they will still get hammered.

     

    I'm not sure that they have to divulge any hard numbers regarding SWTOR's performance until the end of the Q1 2012 (i.e. April). So perhaps they have time to plug the holes and bail out the water. Isn't there a major update set for March ? If so, the timing would be just about right.

  • tank017tank017 Glendale, CAPosts: 2,192Member
    ToR fell well below the hype they created,so it's to be expected.
  • So a broker thinks the game is going to sell far more than EA needs to be successful and then therfor has concerns about it not being successful even though it hits all of EAs numbers and more for it to be a success to them?!!? Seriously confused at what that stock broker was smoking.

  • SpottyGekkoSpottyGekko RotterdamPosts: 3,845Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by scotty899

    i dont know if it has been said yet here in the forums. but i was not about to read someones novel length reply.

    george lucas announced yesterday that he will not be making any more starwars/mainstream movies. his latest film is his

    last and then he is moving on to arthouse stuff. his reasons: fan bois getting on his nerve for the past 10 years or more.

    so that is also another possibility of why shares have dropped

    I doubt that George's somewhat sulky announcement of "no more StarWars movies" is going to affect anything. It's been almost 7 years since the last one, and afaik he wasn't ever planning on making the supposed "last 3" in the original plan.

     

    Meanwhile, LucasArts steams ahead with monetizing the IP. They are re-releasing one of the old movies in 3-D soon. If that does reasonably well, they'll probably redo them all in 3-D (groan). Then there's apparently a "live action" (as opposed to cartoon) TV series in the works for release somewhere in the next 2 years.

     

    I was really surprised that they didn't do some tie-in promotion for the launch of SWTOR, though. Maybe the rumours are true, and LA are the only ones who walk away with a nett profit, regardless of what happens to TOR ?

  • watchawatchawatchawatcha LIC, NYPosts: 960Member

    Originally posted by namelessbob

    So a broker thinks the game is going to sell far more than EA needs to be successful and then therfor has concerns about it not being successful even though it hits all of EAs numbers and more for it to be a success to them?!!? Seriously confused at what that stock broker was smoking.

    Welcome to the wonderful world of prospecting in the Stock Market.

    Just hope the short sellers don't go after EA.

  • JoeyMMOJoeyMMO SomewherePosts: 1,326Member

    Originally posted by namelessbob

    So a broker thinks the game is going to sell far more than EA needs to be successful and then therfor has concerns about it not being successful even though it hits all of EAs numbers and more for it to be a success to them?!!? Seriously confused at what that stock broker was smoking.

     What numbers have BW/EA put forward as to the minimum numbers to be successfull? Professional analysts have said that they expected TOR to easily sell 3 to 4 Million copies by march and keep over 1M subs for a year. Some say cost is  around $150M, other think it's closer to $300M and still others stick to an estimated development cost of around $500M.

    It's easy for EA to now say that the numbers are exceeding all of their expectations. However I'd like to see when and where they announced those expectations, preferably well before launch of course.

    The stock broker is no doubt no longer buying into the analysts' story and correcting for a more realistic estimate.

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  • TillerTiller Portland, ORPosts: 4,921Member
  • RoyalkinRoyalkin Abilene, TXPosts: 273Member

    Originally posted by brutality123

    ""Specifically, initial sales appear to be below expectations"

    quote from the link.

    OMG  just how many intial sales were they expecting?  I'm not saying that the game is perfect. I'm just saying that initial sales of the game were not bad

     

    Investors want to see World of Warcraft levels of support and revenue, and that is just not going to happen. Therefore in the eyes of investors and generally the industry it will be considered a failure.

     


    Originally posted by Valkaern

    Good news in the long run for the MMO landscape.

    But those that are in any position to take advantage of the lesson 'You can't just carelessly repackage yet another unimaginative clone in an already stagnant environment and expect the IP to save the day' will probably learn the wrong lesson anyway, if they learn anything at all.

    Watching the 'suits' try to figure out why they don't have the success of the game they so closely copied is a bit like watching cavemen poking something they don't understand with a stick.

    Hopefully the era of the clone is nearing an end, and that some of the smaller budget games on the horizon (ArcheAge? Pathfinder? While probably wielding a healthy budget: Copernicus?) can inject some life and innovation into a genre that had so much potential yet floundered for 6+ years as clone after clone scrambled for the same exact piece of pie.

     

    Blizzard cornered the market when they released World of Warcraft, and they were able to do this because for the first someone created an MMO for non-MMO fans. They took what was perceived to be the best parts of single-player experiences and likewise from the previous generation of MMORPGs and melded them together. However, what they failed to realize is that just like single-player experiences, these games have finite longevity. Eventually players will grow tired of continuously repeating the same content. The slow loss of subscribers that World of Warcraft is experiencing is proof of this.


    However, this eventuality has not yet reached the board rooms of developers, publishers, and investment groups. What is really happening is stagnation, which exists because of two problems. Firstly, developers are not sure what the market demand actually is; they are confused. It was assumed for quite some time that the market wanted Warcraft style themeparks. However this cannot be the case since every attempt has failed to reach World of Warcraft’s subscription levels. While the game might be fine on its surface, because it failed to reach those numbers, it is seen as a failure in the eyes of the industry, investors, and other developers. Secondly, they are confused because the majority of players who initially flock to these new themeparks eventually return to World of Warcraft, so it appears that the Warcraft style themeparks holds sway, when it fact it really doesn’t. World of Warcraft alone holds sway, and it is an anomaly in the history of the MMO, and no future MMO will ever garner the subscription numbers that it had at its peak.


     


    Now, SWTOR’s potential failure (failure as in not attaining Warcraft level subscription numbers) could trigger a reassessment of the market demographic and its tendencies. It could also trigger the emergence of an innovative developer which moves away from the Clone Syndrome, due to the realization of market dynamics.

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  • GPrestigeGPrestige Guelph, ONPosts: 521Member

    So, do you think this is just an overexaggeration or is this game really going to lose EA a ton of money?

    -Computer specs no one cares about: check.

    -MMOs played no one cares about: check.

    -Xfire stats no one cares about: check.

    -Signature no one cares about: check.

    ------------------------------------------------------------
    -Narcissism: check.

  • SpottyGekkoSpottyGekko RotterdamPosts: 3,845Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by GPrestige

    So, do you think this is just an overexaggeration or is this game really going to lose EA a ton of money?

    Dunno, but EA/BW are REALLY cranking up the marketing machine !

     

    I just received the second email from them (in the last 24 hrs), encouraging me to buy SWTOR. It's almost as if they are getting a bit desperate...

     

    This one is entitled: "See what the critics are saying", and it lists 4 "game of the year" awards and the 5/5 review score from G4TV...

  • Loke666Loke666 MalmöPosts: 18,000Member Uncommon

    How much did the wall street people expect them to have by now?

    I mean they sold plenty of boxes and while the game might not be the next Wow I see no chanses for not EA getting back their investment.

    Trion have got in $100M in a year on Rift and I don't see TOR getting in less unless they really screw up or if GW2 totally kills them (which I think is unlikely).

    I dunno if I think they will make a great profit on it but they sure wont loose any money at least, and MMOs is a thing that generates money for a long while after it is released.

  • channel84channel84 CyberjayaPosts: 585Member Uncommon

    Well now that it's not even on mmorpg.com top 10 list for released game and the big dip in activity in xfire since 17th, i have to applaud the those wall street guy for their foresight. This got all the making of the biggest flop in mmo history.

  • ignore_meignore_me Apple Valley, CAPosts: 1,987Member

    Originally posted by channel84

    Well now that it's not even on mmorpg.com top 10 list for released game and the big dip in activity in xfire since 17th, i have to applaud the those wall street guy for their foresight. This got all the making of the biggest flop in mmo history.

    really? you're going with that? LMAO

    Survivor of the great MMORPG Famine of 2011

  • channel84channel84 CyberjayaPosts: 585Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ignore_me

    Originally posted by channel84

    Well now that it's not even on mmorpg.com top 10 list for released game and the big dip in activity in xfire since 17th, i have to applaud the those wall street guy for their foresight. This got all the making of the biggest flop in mmo history.

    really? you're going with that? LMAO

    Point me to some positive trend. Not even WAR have such a negative trend after 1st month. 

  • Loke666Loke666 MalmöPosts: 18,000Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by channel84

    Well now that it's not even on mmorpg.com top 10 list for released game and the big dip in activity in xfire since 17th, i have to applaud the those wall street guy for their foresight. This got all the making of the biggest flop in mmo history.

    Huh? It is number one right now on MMORPG.coms list if you check the one on the start page, did you check the list of unreleased games or somethimng (which GW2 have topped for 2 years)+

    They sold loads of boxes already, if 20% of the players stay it will have no problems.



    Star Wars: The Old Republic

    17,813

    Unique

    Hits

    #2

    Darkfall

    12,255 Hits

    #3

    Mortal Online

    11,502 Hits

    #4

    Rift

    9,359 Hits

    #5

    World of Warcraft

    7,578 Hits

    #6

    Dungeons & Dragons Online: Eberron Unlimited

    7,165 Hits

    #7

    Guild Wars 2

    6,368 Hits

    #8

    EverQuest II

    5,872 Hits

    #9

    EVE Online

    5,789 Hits

    #10

    EverQuest

    5,551 Hits

  • channel84channel84 CyberjayaPosts: 585Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Loke666

    Originally posted by channel84

    Well now that it's not even on mmorpg.com top 10 list for released game and the big dip in activity in xfire since 17th, i have to applaud the those wall street guy for their foresight. This got all the making of the biggest flop in mmo history.

    Huh? It is number one right now on MMORPG.coms list if you check the one on the start page, did you check the list of unreleased games or somethimng (which GW2 have topped for 2 years)+

    They sold loads of boxes already, if 20% of the players stay it will have no problems.

    Check again, it lost the top spot yesterday. Today it's no longer on the list. As for their box sales, i haven't seen EA making any claim about how well it sells so you're prediction is as good as mine.

     

    @Loke666

    With all the fiasco going on (Hi rez, illium, founder title) ofc it's gonna get lots of unique hit ^^


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    8.35


     





    #3

     8.24

     - Guild Wars


    #4

     8.24

     - Fallen Earth


    #5

     8.23

     - Atlantica Online



    #7

     8.23

     - EverQuest II


  • Zlayer77Zlayer77 dPosts: 826Member

    More good News I see....

    We really need this one to FAIL, so the dam developers stop making these Clone games.. Dont know about the rest of you, but im not forking up a monthly subscription for a game, when I can pay a one time fee for skyrim and have as much fun..

    Mouse wheel games, gear grind bla bla bla.. Those who have tried this before Raise your HAND!...when will developers learn that people are tired of this crap..

  • TimacekTimacek YlinPosts: 180Member

    Originally posted by Zlayer77

    More good News I see....

    We really need this one to FAIL, so the dam developers stop making these Clone games.. Dont know about the rest of you, but im not forking up a monthly subscription for a game, when I can pay a one time fee for skyrim and have as much fun..

    Mouse wheel games, gear grind bla bla bla.. Those who have tried this before Raise your HAND!...when will developers learn that people are tired of this crap..

    100 percent agree

  • LoekiiLoekii China Hot Springs, AKPosts: 430Member

    Originally posted by Timacek

    Originally posted by Zlayer77

    More good News I see....

    We really need this one to FAIL, so the dam developers stop making these Clone games.. Dont know about the rest of you, but im not forking up a monthly subscription for a game, when I can pay a one time fee for skyrim and have as much fun..

    Mouse wheel games, gear grind bla bla bla.. Those who have tried this before Raise your HAND!...when will developers learn that people are tired of this crap..

    100 percent agree

    While I hate to see it fail, I do agree that there needs to be some large improvements in Development quality.

     

     

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  • Zlayer77Zlayer77 dPosts: 826Member

    Originally posted by Loekii

    Originally posted by Timacek


    Originally posted by Zlayer77

    More good News I see....

    We really need this one to FAIL, so the dam developers stop making these Clone games.. Dont know about the rest of you, but im not forking up a monthly subscription for a game, when I can pay a one time fee for skyrim and have as much fun..

    Mouse wheel games, gear grind bla bla bla.. Those who have tried this before Raise your HAND!...when will developers learn that people are tired of this crap..

    100 percent agree

    While I hate to see it fail, I do agree that there needs to be some large improvements in Development quality.

     

     

    Quality isent the issue for me. Its that Iv done it before.. I would say "large improvements in Develpment Innovations" instead of quality..

    You can always polish a Fun game, but it dosent mather how much quality or polish you put on a Turd its still a Turd..

    SWTOR is just to much like everything ells to hold my interest for a longer period of time. First time I discoverd this was when I started playing WARHAMMER ONLINE, I had just quit Age of conan, because the bugs just got me two frustrated.. But if you comapared WAR to AOC.. even with all the bugs AOC had alot more innovation. AOC being a less polished game still held my interest far longer then WAR did.. In the end I had to force myself to Log on to WAR...

    All Im saying here is both those games lacked.. but WAR was more polished, but was much more boring to play..

    I also think that many people blame Quality and lack of polish when they are actually getting bored playing the game and dont know why. The game isent fun, and they rationalize it by saying the game lacks in quality, when the main reason is the game lacks in Innovation. Beacuse if the game was fun, they would not mind the bugs so much... But when the game is boring, they start seeing all those flaws in the quality much clearer, and it starts bugging them more and more....

    Battlegrounds, quest systems, levels and Raid content have been done before, I cant belive that this is the extent of what an MMO should be about. I personaly see alot of diffrent things you could do in an online game then just THIS... But developers are looking at WoW (sadly they are) and thinking that this is the way 2 do it ( its not, its WoWs way of doing it, and they are not making WoW 2,0) but somehow they all fall into this pit-trap.

    If I had a development team and hundreads of millions of dollars the first thing I would do is Right down... RAID, Level, Holy trinity, Battlegrounds... and then I would put a cross over them all and say " WE WILL NOT HAVE ANYTHING OF THIS IN OUR GAME PERIOD, WE ARE MAKING SOMETHING NEW HERE!!!!!

    The funny thing is that I dont undestand if developers are dumb or investors are stupid.. Because I have hundreads of diffrent ways of making an MMO without those things in it, and still make it a theampark experince... But they keep making the same games over and over.. I personaly dont get it... and its getting frustrating to see FAIL after FAIL after FAIL...

  • SlampigSlampig Chantilly, VAPosts: 2,376Member Uncommon

    When you are done playing the market, how about letting me in on some info... I mean, Oliver Stone is gonna make a third Wall Street movie, just for you, right?

    That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!

  • channel84channel84 CyberjayaPosts: 585Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Zlayer77

    Originally posted by Loekii


    Originally posted by Timacek


    Originally posted by Zlayer77

    More good News I see....

    We really need this one to FAIL, so the dam developers stop making these Clone games.. Dont know about the rest of you, but im not forking up a monthly subscription for a game, when I can pay a one time fee for skyrim and have as much fun..

    Mouse wheel games, gear grind bla bla bla.. Those who have tried this before Raise your HAND!...when will developers learn that people are tired of this crap..

    100 percent agree

    While I hate to see it fail, I do agree that there needs to be some large improvements in Development quality.

     

     

    Quality isent the issue for me. Its that Iv done it before.. I would say "large improvements in Develpment Innovations" instead of quality..

    You can always polish a Fun game, but it dosent mather how much quality or polish you put on a Turd its still a Turd..

    SWTOR is just to much like everything ells to hold my interest for a longer period of time. First time I discoverd this was when I started playing WARHAMMER ONLINE, I had just quit Age of conan, because the bugs just got me two frustrated.. But if you comapared WAR to AOC.. even with all the bugs AOC had alot more innovation. AOC being a less polished game still held my interest far longer then WAR did.. In the end I had to force myself to Log on to WAR...

    All Im saying here is both those games lacked.. but WAR was more polished, but was much more boring to play..

    I also think that many people blame Quality and lack of polish when they are actually getting bored playing the game and dont know why. The game isent fun, and they rationalize it by saying the game lacks in quality, when the main reason is the game lacks in Innovation. Beacuse if the game was fun, they would not mind the bugs so much... But when the game is boring, they start seeing all those flaws in the quality much clearer, and it starts bugging them more and more....

    Battlegrounds, quest systems, levels and Raid content have been done before, I cant belive that this is the extent of what an MMO should be about. I personaly see alot of diffrent things you could do in an online game then just THIS... But developers are looking at WoW (sadly they are) and thinking that this is the way 2 do it ( its not, its WoWs way of doing it, and they are not making WoW 2,0) but somehow they all fall into this pit-trap.

    If I had a development team and hundreads of millions of dollars the first thing I would do is Right down... RAID, Level, Holy trinity, Battlegrounds... and then I would put a cross over them all and say " WE WILL NOT HAVE ANYTHING OF THIS IN OUR GAME PERIOD, WE ARE MAKING SOMETHING NEW HERE!!!!!

    The funny thing is that I dont undestand if developers are dumb or investors are stupid.. Because I have hundreads of diffrent ways of making an MMO without those things in it, and still make it a theampark experince... But they keep making the same games over and over.. I personaly dont get it... and its getting frustrating to see FAIL after FAIL after FAIL...

    Big investor want minimal risk and some form of data that they can predict upon, thus the lack of innovation. They're expert at milking cow thou.

  • superussuperus Seattle, WAPosts: 94Member

    Originally posted by Timacek

    Originally posted by Zlayer77

    More good News I see....

    We really need this one to FAIL, so the dam developers stop making these Clone games.. Dont know about the rest of you, but im not forking up a monthly subscription for a game, when I can pay a one time fee for skyrim and have as much fun..

    Mouse wheel games, gear grind bla bla bla.. Those who have tried this before Raise your HAND!...when will developers learn that people are tired of this crap..

    100 percent agree

    110 percent agree.. can the masses please demand better and not succumb to a ravaged IP title that relies on bought off reviews and lame grind based gameplay?

  • papaz1papaz1 BrommaPosts: 27Member

    These guys don't give 2 cents about SWTOR or WoW or any other MMO for that matter.

    They care for $$.

    When they write something like this in the Wall Street Journal you better believe they have done their homework.

    It's not like they logged into to SWTOR went "shit the PvP sucks" and then made a poll on MMORPG "will you cancel your sub" and then wrote an article in WSJ trimming down the earning estimations of EA.

    On a side note. I think Bioware is doing a good job with patching and constantly giving out information on future plans of SWTOR. I would love the PvP pick up to a good and healthy state.

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