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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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  • PelaajaPelaaja Member Posts: 697

    Originally posted by dubyahite

    Ok, well, considering as how the original premise of this thread (that tor had peaked on xfire) was not even true, can we please just bury thisthread and get over it?



    Didn't think so. Xfire statistics are crap. They are worse than crap. They are the crap of the crap.



    Anyone who thinks they are useful has blinders on. The numbers are meaningless. Its crap. Stop this silly argument about stupid software that doesn't mean anything.

    I don't think we should, dub.

    The title actually serves the purpose if you don't set it to any certain date but continue following the latest peak. And the graph is favorable to SW:TOR anyway, which makes it even more interesting. Had it dropped from initial launch it would've been really boring and just another over hyped cashcow. Now it has, at least, room for discussion about it's future.

    And crap or no crap, it can be used with other statistics to discuss about it and speculate.

    EDIT: a new peak for 2nd January 2012: 80742

    It's good there wasn't a decline, it would've been a really bad sign. But the climb could've been a bit steeper, I think.

    Well, next weekend is supposedly a normal weekend and isn't it 3rd week since launch?

    image

  • MetentsoMetentso Member UncommonPosts: 1,437

    Originally posted by ethion

    The number to really focus on is the number of unique players not minutes played per day.  Any new game will have a much higher than normal minutes played as people are playing a lot leveling up.  Rather look at the number of players.  Looking at that statistic there has been a gradual increase in numbers with yesterday being the highest count yet at 10,843.  It has only just recently broken through 10k.  By comparison wow was around 19k.  Wow numbers seems to have been going down a bit maybe some wow players are checking out swtor?  

    In any event it is clear that swtor is doing very well.  The real question will be can it continue to do well.

    That makes sense. 11,627 yesterday, it's going up like a rocket.

    I guess people saying that xFire stats are not and indication of number of players, must be thinking that the existing players are installing xFire like crazy, lol.

  • LeucentLeucent Member Posts: 2,371

    Originally posted by tom_gore

    SWTOR today has the HIGHEST Xfire played hours since launch!

     

    Good thing Xfire stats are completely unreliable and meaningless, right?

     

    They mean shit. We all know it s doing well by logging in and seeing most servers High or Full with waits. Thats alot better indication then a program that literally no one uses.

  • kegtapkegtap Member Posts: 261

    It's my fault sorry everyone I was away for the holidays. You should now see a major spike in the numbers with all my alts!

    I can feel your anger. This game is defenseless. Take your weapon. Strike this game down with all of your hatred, and your journey towards towards the Dark Side will be complete.

  • ShivamShivam Member Posts: 465

    Originally posted by tom_gore

    SWTOR today has the HIGHEST Xfire played hours since launch!

     

    Good thing Xfire stats are completely unreliable and meaningless, right?

     

    Yes unreliable and meaningless.

    You must not lose faith in humanity. Humanity is an ocean; if a few drops of the ocean are dirty, the ocean does not become dirty -- Mahatma Gandhi

    image

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321

    You won't see me on XFire but I just can't stand it any longer, gonna have to buy this sucker this afternoon. I held off at launch because A) I was burned out after a year of betaing B) I was dissapointed in the space combat C) I knew it would be que city during launch and Christmas and wanted to save myself the anoyance D) I was busier than a cat trying to cover it's poop in the middle of a asphalt parking lot the last couple of weeks. But today we just had our first really cold day and I just can't stand it any longer. See you guys ingame, gotta run to Wally World anyway

    I miss DAoC

  • LidaneLidane Member CommonPosts: 2,300

    Originally posted by tom_gore

    SWTOR today has the HIGHEST Xfire played hours since launch!

    Good thing Xfire stats are completely unreliable and meaningless, right?

    Actually, yes. They ARE unreliable and meaningless. And I say that as a fan of SWTOR who's been playing since June.

    Until the first free month ends and people actually start getting charged sub fees, everything else before then is total speculation. That includes XFire.

  • DarLorkarDarLorkar Member UncommonPosts: 1,082

    Originally posted by Lidane

    Originally posted by tom_gore

    SWTOR today has the HIGHEST Xfire played hours since launch!

    Good thing Xfire stats are completely unreliable and meaningless, right?

    Actually, yes. They ARE unreliable and meaningless. And I say that as a fan of SWTOR who's been playing since June.

    Until the first free month ends and people actually start getting charged sub fees, everything else before then is total speculation. That includes XFire.

    Can agree finally:P

    Like my first post in this topic. Way to soon to see anything when looking for trends. Need time and, well, trends to look at :)

    Trends are not a couple days, but over weeks, and for low overall numbers like x-fire, months are better.

  • tryklontryklon Member UncommonPosts: 1,370
    It seems the game didnt yet peaked after all. It now has more than 11,5k xfire users and it shows it keeps growing. Op theory was wrongafter all
  • TalinTalin Member UncommonPosts: 918

    Originally posted by tryklon

    It seems the game didnt yet peaked after all. It now has more than 11,5k xfire users and it shows it keeps growing. Op theory was wrongafter all

    Tinfoil hat failure? Xfire spitting out flawed statistics? The world may never know...

  • NipashnakaNipashnaka Member Posts: 169

    Originally posted by Thillian

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

     

    Difference is that for election estimates they use what's known as a representative sample. And they go to great pains to achieve that. Xfire is a self-selecting sample, so it's not even a random sample and it's certainly not a representative sample either.

    All Xfire trends tell you is trends amongst Xfire users. Which may or may not be useful.

  • VhalnVhaln Member Posts: 3,159

    Originally posted by tryklon

    It seems the game didnt yet peaked after all. It now has more than 11,5k xfire users and it shows it keeps growing. Op theory was wrongafter all

     

    If I'm reading the graph correctly, it spiked on a saturday?

     

    When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.

  • tryklontryklon Member UncommonPosts: 1,370

    Originally posted by Vhaln

    Originally posted by tryklon

    It seems the game didnt yet peaked after all. It now has more than 11,5k xfire users and it shows it keeps growing. Op theory was wrongafter all

     

    If I'm reading the graph correctly, it spiked on a saturday?

     

    Do mouseover, it's Jan 2, so, monday.

    But the fact there is not even the graph because it only shows hours played, and it can for example show no increase of players but only an increase of hours played. But what is happening there is that the number or players is increasing daily, not only the hours played. So that brings down the theory that the game already peaked

  • LidaneLidane Member CommonPosts: 2,300

    Originally posted by DarLorkar

    Can agree finally:P

    I've been saying it since the beginning. That's just common sense.

    Numbers before the end of the first month are pointless. Also, XFire is a crap statistical model and tool. Both of those things are true. 

  • PelaajaPelaaja Member Posts: 697

    Originally posted by Nipashnaka

    Originally posted by Thillian


    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

     

    Difference is that for election estimates they use what's known as a representative sample. And they go to great pains to achieve that. Xfire is a self-selecting sample, so it's not even a random sample and it's certainly not a representative sample either.

    All Xfire trends tell you is trends amongst Xfire users. Which may or may not be useful.

    You're  a tad too late for this and please would you consider concentrating on the number speculation instead of XFire creditability speculation?

    Besides, you are from US (according to your profile). Your election is the same kind of self-selecting sample as you have to register to vote. Not all coutries have that practise, but all above certain age are eligible (certain personal deficies may prevent you from having a vote, but that's another thing and not even a minority).

    Your poitical vote is same kind of process we see in XFire. You have to have prerequisities (register to vote, buy a PC) and to actually vote once it's time for it (go to ballots, use XFire while playing the game).

    Besides, they're aiming for the big markets. That's the place where people actually do use XFire, not among MMO-players but the others, muggles ;)

    image

  • DarLorkarDarLorkar Member UncommonPosts: 1,082

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by DarLorkar


    Originally posted by zymurgeist

     






    Originally posted by DarLorkar

    Then it must be the one about x-fire can show trends in the whole game?





     

    Can it? Sure, a broken clock is right twice a day. Can it be relied upon to show trends correctly? Not at all.

    It's like saying the Amish, God bless them, can be accurate predictors of fashon trends. I mean they wear clothes right? Unless your fashon trend is towards black and white clothes it's not going to agree.

    A representative selection of an entire population doesn't come from  a distinct subset and it's never self selected.

     

    Hey a clock that is working is right twice a day as well.. as well as at other times:P

    So who knows if it is working right , broke or just working sometimes?:P

    So you folks take your "

    A representative selection of an entire population doesn't come from  a distinct subset and it's never self selected.

    Or your unbiased scientific not self selected..

    Oh wait, you do not have any:)

    So i guess we will take what we have and use it, ok?

     

     No a clock that's working is right all day long. That's how you tell it's not broken. A clock that's only right sometimes is worthless. I don't have any what? Some people in Africa use animal shit to build houses because that's what they have. I would just move.



    Yup you would just move or close your eyes and stick fingers in your ears and hum.



     Anything to be able to ignore what you do not like or agree with.

    Thats ok be my guest, move on:)

  • UronksurUronksur Member UncommonPosts: 310

    Originally posted by Thillian

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

    1. He said "not everyone uses it", not "Noone [sic] uses it".

    2. "Gargantual" is not a word.

    3. Your bizarre statistical claim that an Xfire sample is accurate in terms of the population (what population are you even referring to??) hasn't been demonstrated.

    4. A 0.02% deviation from what? From the population of Mongolia?

    5. If you really want to start throwing statistics around and claiming this "Xfire", which I've never heard of, provides representative sampling of some population (which you haven't bothered defining yet)... http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/power-analysis/#power_doe3

  • DarLorkarDarLorkar Member UncommonPosts: 1,082

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by DarLorkar


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by DarLorkar


    Originally posted by zymurgeist

     






    Originally posted by DarLorkar

    Then it must be the one about x-fire can show trends in the whole game?





     

    Can it? Sure, a broken clock is right twice a day. Can it be relied upon to show trends correctly? Not at all.

    It's like saying the Amish, God bless them, can be accurate predictors of fashon trends. I mean they wear clothes right? Unless your fashon trend is towards black and white clothes it's not going to agree.

    A representative selection of an entire population doesn't come from  a distinct subset and it's never self selected.

     

    Hey a clock that is working is right twice a day as well.. as well as at other times:P

    So who knows if it is working right , broke or just working sometimes?:P

    So you folks take your "

    A representative selection of an entire population doesn't come from  a distinct subset and it's never self selected.

    Or your unbiased scientific not self selected..

    Oh wait, you do not have any:)

    So i guess we will take what we have and use it, ok?

     

     No a clock that's working is right all day long. That's how you tell it's not broken. A clock that's only right sometimes is worthless. I don't have any what? Some people in Africa use animal shit to build houses because that's what they have. I would just move.



    Yup you would just move or close your eyes and stick fingers in your ears and hum.



     Anything to be able to ignore what you do not like or agree with.

    Thats ok be my guest, move on:)

     Would you live in a house made of shit? What would you do if it rained? And no I would move. Sticking your fingers in your ears, closing your eyes , or humming would not fix the smell.

    Put it this way. Just because you can open a door with a crowbar it doesn't make it a key. Just because some trends on Xfire seem to match up with reality that doesn't make it a good predictor of trends.



    No it makes it one of the ONLY(EDIT: Should of said FEW rather than only) predictor of trends we have:) Kind of the whole point i have been making in this whole topic.

    Never said it was flawless, or the best, just that it happens to be one of the few things we can look at and see some actual numbers.

    Because it is not the best is not a reason to completley ignore it.  It is better than noithing. It really comes down to that. Something you can see, and so can use, is better than all the best things you would like to have or wish you had, but do not.

    Yes you have to be careful with it, but again, yes it does show trends. And it is one of the few things we actually have to look at.

    So i say use what you have available, no key? At least the crowbar got the door open. :P

     

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Member Posts: 6,403

    Originally posted by DarLorkar

    No it makes it one of the ONLY predictor of trends we have:) Kind of the whole point i have been making in this whole topic.

    Now now, you know that isn't true; any fool can climb on the soapbox, wrap a rag turban around his head, and shout the future.  Hell, we get dozens of them every day.

    Sources are never in short supply.  Plausibility is.

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • PelaajaPelaaja Member Posts: 697

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by DarLorkar


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by DarLorkar


    Originally posted by zymurgeist

     






    Originally posted by DarLorkar

    Then it must be the one about x-fire can show trends in the whole game?





     

    Can it? Sure, a broken clock is right twice a day. Can it be relied upon to show trends correctly? Not at all.

    It's like saying the Amish, God bless them, can be accurate predictors of fashon trends. I mean they wear clothes right? Unless your fashon trend is towards black and white clothes it's not going to agree.

    A representative selection of an entire population doesn't come from  a distinct subset and it's never self selected.

     

    Hey a clock that is working is right twice a day as well.. as well as at other times:P

    So who knows if it is working right , broke or just working sometimes?:P

    So you folks take your "

    A representative selection of an entire population doesn't come from  a distinct subset and it's never self selected.

    Or your unbiased scientific not self selected..

    Oh wait, you do not have any:)

    So i guess we will take what we have and use it, ok?

     

     No a clock that's working is right all day long. That's how you tell it's not broken. A clock that's only right sometimes is worthless. I don't have any what? Some people in Africa use animal shit to build houses because that's what they have. I would just move.



    Yup you would just move or close your eyes and stick fingers in your ears and hum.



     Anything to be able to ignore what you do not like or agree with.

    Thats ok be my guest, move on:)

     Would you live in a house made of shit? What would you do if it rained? And no I would move. Sticking your fingers in your ears, closing your eyes , or humming would not fix the smell.

    Put it this way. Just because you can open a door with a crowbar it doesn't make it a key. Just because some trends on Xfire seem to match up with reality that doesn't make it a good predictor of trends.

    And just because you have lvl200 in Analogies, it doesn't make them true or accurate.

    XFire has once again shown a trend that can be confirmed with other data there is to mine in the net. And I bet in coming weeks it will continue to do that.

    Put it this way, just because you can make an analogy it doesn't mean you're speaking truth.

    image

  • DarLorkarDarLorkar Member UncommonPosts: 1,082

    Originally posted by Icewhite

    Originally posted by DarLorkar

    No it makes it one of the ONLY predictor of trends we have:) Kind of the whole point i have been making in this whole topic.

    Now now, you know that isn't true; any fool can climb on the soapbox, wrap a rag turban around his head, and shout the future.  Hell, we get dozens of them every day.

    Sources are never in short supply.  Plausibility is.

    Oh really? One of? As in more .. yes. So true?

    Care to name some the others? That actually show numbers? In this case sources ARE in short supply.

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Member UncommonPosts: 2,047

    I haven't been following this thread since its second day and I really don't feel like reading the addition 300 or so posts, so if this has been said already, then my appologies.  When this thread was  made, the highest total number of users had been around 9600, today's numbers show 11,600, or a 20% increase.  So no, SWTOR has in fact not peaked on xfire.  This is irrelevant to the whether or not the numbers are meaningful.  I'm just answering the forum topic in the negative.

  • Vato26Vato26 Member Posts: 3,930

    Originally posted by DarLorkar



    No it makes it one of the ONLY predictor of trends we have:) Kind of the whole point i have been making in this whole topic.

    Never said it was flawless, or the best, just that it happens to be one of the few things we can look at and see some actual numbers.

    Because it is not the best is not a reason to completley ignore it.  It is better than noithing. It really comes down to that. Something you can see, and so can use, is better than all the best things you would like to have or wish you had, but do not.

    Yes you have to be careful with it, but again, yes it does show trends. And it is one of the few things we actually have to look at.

    So i say use what you have available, no key? At least the crowbar got the door open. :P

     

    Just because it's "the ONLY predictor of trends" (which isn't even close to being true), doesn't make it right. 

    Basing your guesses on invalid data doesn't make it anymore truthful.  It just shows that you are willing to use invalid data as a method to try and support your claims.  Which, in turn, doesn't make your claims anymore truthful than before you used invalid data.

     

    And, to reiterate, it ONLY shows trends WITHIN the X-fire userbase.  When you try to apply the data outside of X-fire, that is when the validity goes right out the door.

  • Cthulhu23Cthulhu23 Member Posts: 994

    49 pages arguing the relative merits of X-Fire.  

     

    Solid work, guys.

     

     

  • Vato26Vato26 Member Posts: 3,930

    Originally posted by Pelaaja

    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by DarLorkar


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by DarLorkar


    Originally posted by zymurgeist

     






    Originally posted by DarLorkar

    Then it must be the one about x-fire can show trends in the whole game?





     

    Can it? Sure, a broken clock is right twice a day. Can it be relied upon to show trends correctly? Not at all.

    It's like saying the Amish, God bless them, can be accurate predictors of fashon trends. I mean they wear clothes right? Unless your fashon trend is towards black and white clothes it's not going to agree.

    A representative selection of an entire population doesn't come from  a distinct subset and it's never self selected.

     

    Hey a clock that is working is right twice a day as well.. as well as at other times:P

    So who knows if it is working right , broke or just working sometimes?:P

    So you folks take your "

    A representative selection of an entire population doesn't come from  a distinct subset and it's never self selected.

    Or your unbiased scientific not self selected..

    Oh wait, you do not have any:)

    So i guess we will take what we have and use it, ok?

     

     No a clock that's working is right all day long. That's how you tell it's not broken. A clock that's only right sometimes is worthless. I don't have any what? Some people in Africa use animal shit to build houses because that's what they have. I would just move.



    Yup you would just move or close your eyes and stick fingers in your ears and hum.



     Anything to be able to ignore what you do not like or agree with.

    Thats ok be my guest, move on:)

     Would you live in a house made of shit? What would you do if it rained? And no I would move. Sticking your fingers in your ears, closing your eyes , or humming would not fix the smell.

    Put it this way. Just because you can open a door with a crowbar it doesn't make it a key. Just because some trends on Xfire seem to match up with reality that doesn't make it a good predictor of trends.

    And just because you have lvl200 in Analogies, it doesn't make them true or accurate.

    XFire has once again shown a trend that can be confirmed with other data there is to mine in the net. And I bet in coming weeks it will continue to do that.

    Put it this way, just because you can make an analogy it doesn't mean you're speaking truth.

    Uhh... no it hasn't.

This discussion has been closed.