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Let's have it, predictions: launch sales, retention, etc

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  • madjonNZmadjonNZ AucklandPosts: 143Member

    3 million at launch - first month.   Asia - big unknown for sales and pricing.

    5 million at 3 months ( 70% retention on original players but gaining new players through delayed releases and word of mouth, advertising).   Asia - big unknown for sales and pricing.

    6 million at 6 months - peaking population, active subs continue playing through Alt stroylines.

    If an expansion or patch with credible content that matches *popular feedback is announced to launch within 6 months  then continued subs at around 6 million. 

     

    *Expanded space combat with heavy multiplayer involvment,   Swoop/pod crafting / racing / crowd watching, Cantina sports. IMO these additions have a playable lifetime far exceeding added dungeons in regards to development time.

     

     

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  • LoekiiLoekii China Hot Springs, AKPosts: 430Member

    Originally posted by Jimmy562

    I predict a lot of haters will be surprised.

    I am not seeing a lot of reason why.

     

    I think people are going to like it, if they like what TOR has to offer, but just like other MMOs, I think people that do not like what they see, are likely to still not like the game after launch.

     

    Just not seeing a reason to change their minds and make them beg BW to let them pay $15/mo for the game.   Now it it were F2P, I can see people giving it more of a chance, much like people have done with LotrO.

     

    I think TOR will do better than most MMOs, both in box sales and retention, but I do not think it will have a much higher performance than say Rift or other non-WoW MMOs.    I do expect to see subscription drop offs after launch, rather than growth (typical of MMOs and with TOR's focus on Story and its mortality).

     

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  • Jimmy562Jimmy562 FlimwellPosts: 1,099Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Loekii

    Originally posted by Jimmy562

    I predict a lot of haters will be surprised.

    I am not seeing a lot of reason why.

     

    I think people are going to like it, if they like what TOR has to offer, but just like other MMOs, I think people that do not like what they see, are likely to still not like the game after launch.

     

    Just not seeing a reason to change their minds and make them beg BW to let them pay $15/mo for the game.   Now it it were F2P, I can see people giving it more of a chance, much like people have done with LotrO.

     

    I think TOR will do better than most MMOs, both in box sales and retention, but I do not think it will have a much higher performance than say Rift or other non-WoW MMOs.    I do expect to see subscription drop offs after launch, rather than growth (typical of MMOs and with TOR's focus on Story and its mortality).

     

    Not surprised as in changing their minds about the game. Surprised as in "Woah, that game actually did really well".

    I predict you'll be surprised as well :)

  • AusareAusare adamstown, MDPosts: 850Member

    I only played to lvl 10 an a few characters.  the game is fast paced and fun that will get people to play.  I think the only thing that may cause people to leave is if they content does not come fast enough or if there is not enough.  I think that is the only thing that might hold back the game.  Other than that it is a fun game.

  • CazNeergCazNeerg Puyallup, WAPosts: 2,198Member

     


    Originally posted by VowOfSilence

    GW2: TOR loses a lot, because it doesn't have a monthly sub and offers different gameplay.

    People who place a high value on gameplay being "different" will probably be in the group that doesn't stay past the first month, they won't be leaving "for" GW2, or waiting for it to come out, they will be leaving because in that respect TOR isn't different, and will do so fairly early.  And they'll probably end up not playing GW2 for long either, since something is only different until you get used to it, so people who like something solely because it is different have a built in limit on their attention spans.


    Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
    Through passion, I gain strength.
    Through strength, I gain power.
    Through power, I gain victory.
    Through victory, my chains are broken.
    The Force shall free me.

  • PukeBucketPukeBucket Beaverton, ORPosts: 867Member

    Lots of non MMOers coming in. Over half of them will be the under 18 crowd who probably has parents that won't enjoy the idea of 14.99 a month.

    There's about 15 - 20 million of MMO players in NA who are rather liquid, I'd say 3 to 4 of those will pick it up and stick around a lil' longer than the previous group.

    2 million core who this game will be heaven for.

    Asian market will be interested so 5 million there.

    Europe good for 1 million?

    In 6 months time I'd suspect 3 to 8 million total subs, being liberal with that number.

    12 months from now it'll depend on if they deliver on end game and extras to retain. I think more social features than those in place will be needed as well.

    -Oh and since people are sniffing for haters, I am one. I personally think this game blows. But I also dislike Twilight and Justin Beaber, sadly shiny and simple rules this era of consumer.

    I used to play MMOs like you, but then I took an arrow to the knee.

  • Ambros123Ambros123 Neverneverland, TNPosts: 877Member

    Originally posted by CazNeerg

     


    Originally posted by VowOfSilence


    GW2: TOR loses a lot, because it doesn't have a monthly sub and offers different gameplay.

    People who place a high value on gameplay being "different" will probably be in the group that doesn't stay past the first month, they won't be leaving "for" GW2, or waiting for it to come out, they will be leaving because in that respect TOR isn't different, and will do so fairly early.  And they'll probably end up not playing GW2 for long either, since something is only different until you get used to it, so people who like something solely because it is different have a built in limit on their attention spans.


    People are not going to play GW2 simpley because it's different and they have ADD.  GW2 is providing and actual innovative and different game when the genre is stagnant with the same mechanics being copied over and over and over that is transitioned to every AAA MMO that has been developed for over a decade now.  Those that ditch TOR for GW2 are playing TOR mostly as a time killer like people played RIFT as a time killer.

  • ElikalElikal ValhallaPosts: 7,906Member Uncommon

    Tbh, at this time I totally don't know. It could be great, could fall like all others. Everything seems possible at this moment. It all depends how they are REALLY able to work after launch, and I dunno. EA & bioware is big enough to actually do that, but we never know.

    I pass. No idea. ^^

    People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert

  • zimboy69zimboy69 chicargo, FLPosts: 376Member Uncommon

    I predict that you will be able to buy  STOR  within 6 weeks of release for £15 or less

    image

  • ElikalElikal ValhallaPosts: 7,906Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by zimboy69

    I predict that you will be able to buy  STOR  within 6 weeks of release for £15 or less

    Oh come on. Thats really ridiculous. I mean, given your sig: biased a bit? ;)

    People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert

  • KuinnKuinn MestaPosts: 2,093Member

    I cant even begin to predict anything since I dont know any details for the future from Bioware. I like this game a lot, but I will quit it at 4-6 months in, if Bioware shows me that they are just going to recycle content like Blizzard, however if they will try to expand on the game beyond basic content, I can see my self sticking with it for quite some time.

     

    Only the xpac plans and major patches can give somekind of base for any predictions imo.

  • allegriaallegria San Francisco, CAPosts: 682Member

    TOR will have a huge release biggest ever .

    Most MMO veterans who have been playing MMO RPGs for years will be bored after month 1-2

    Bioware fans ( fans of KOTOR / ME / DA etc ) will likely stick around until ME3 comes out.

    It won't change the MMO industry much other than what is obvious:

    1. It is star wars = following no matter what

    2. Bioware storytelling ( although watered down from thier typical stuff ) will keep some people there

    3. For people that like instanced pvp, it may be a good place to call home as the combat is very fluid and fun and with so few unique classes ( all classes mirrored on both sides ) it may be easier to balance than say RIFT

     

    Otherwise its a less complex ( in size, gameplay, class choice and complexity ) MMO than WoW with Star Wars art.

     

     

  • TalinTalin West Babylon, NYPosts: 824Member

    I predict I will eat pie, while playing SWTOR upon launch. I expect my interest in pie will outlast SWTOR in the long run, yet I also expect to enjoy them both for quite a while as long as I don't over consume either one.

  • AngelfireAngelfire Middle of Nowhere, TXPosts: 145Member

    Originally posted by CazNeerg

     


    Originally posted by VowOfSilence


    GW2: TOR loses a lot, because it doesn't have a monthly sub and offers different gameplay.

    People who place a high value on gameplay being "different" will probably be in the group that doesn't stay past the first month, they won't be leaving "for" GW2, or waiting for it to come out, they will be leaving because in that respect TOR isn't different, and will do so fairly early.  And they'll probably end up not playing GW2 for long either, since something is only different until you get used to it, so people who like something solely because it is different have a built in limit on their attention spans.


     

    And some of us sit in both camps. Me personally I totally intend to play SWTOR.. yes its a bit old fashioned MMO style but the stories kick much ass and I have no doubt I will play all 8 classes just to see all the stories. At the same time I want to see something fresh and new.. however GW2 isn't that in my eyes.. Secret World will be filling that gap nicely for me I think based on whats been released so far. But even when thats released I'll be sticking with SWTOR for a good while.

    I believe SWTOR will do well. I wont claim top or best or killer or any of that nonsence but I really believe its gonna be popular even after GW2 and all these other games come out. For starters GWs despite being free to play and blah blah never made to big a dent in the market, and myself as a pretty hardcore MMORPG player absolutely hated it largely because.. its not a MMORPG in my eyes. Its an adventure game with a lobby. It feels like they got rid of most of the MMORPG experience and made one giant dungeon/battleground que. But I say that because a core part of the MMORPG genre to me is a persistant world. When 80% of the content is instanced.. its not really persistant world. But I digress. Just my opinion anyways..

    The majority of my friends and extended friends through a number of former guilds and forums all are quite possitive about SWTOR after beta testing and excited.. and I've learned to gauge my opinion of a MMORPGs future by that since as a whole they tend to be right. Usually if they are like 'that looks lame' it usually ends up crapping out no matter how much I like it. Frustrating but so true. So based off this criteria (which is as good as any other predictions right now) .. SWTOR will live on.

  • Cameron27Cameron27 Fort Collins, COPosts: 142Member

    Originally posted by Talin

    I predict I will eat pie, while playing SWTOR upon launch. I expect my interest in pie will outlast SWTOR in the long run, yet I also expect to enjoy them both for quite a while as long as I don't over consume either one.

     QFT, people who say they aren't going to play because of WoW burnout is like people saying they aren't going to eat apple pie because they've been slamming a cherry pie per day for the last 5 years. Probably shouldn't have slammed so much cherry pie.

    "I will not play it nor any other MMO until they make it possible to obtain the best gear without forcing people to group up to do so." SwampRob

  • zimboy69zimboy69 chicargo, FLPosts: 376Member Uncommon

    not bias 

     

    every single game that has come out in the last two years  with only one exceptions  has reduced to £15 or less in 6 weeks 

    and that one exception  was starcraft 2  which has been around £25 and ive never seen it below that

     

    every other game has reduced either  in one day  sale or reduction from various retailors to  £15 or less within 6 weeks

    it may only spend a few days at that price and rise but at some point between  release and  6 weeks  it will go below £15

    even skyrim can be had  today for £20   its 6 weeks  aren't up untill  about the 20th of dec   so a few weeks and you  will be able to buy it for the majic  £15

     

    and  it  will probably reduce because of  STOR

    image

  • UtukuMoonUtukuMoon ParisPosts: 1,066Member
    Originally posted by Angelfire


    Originally posted by CazNeerg

     


    Originally posted by VowOfSilence



    GW2: TOR loses a lot, because it doesn't have a monthly sub and offers different gameplay.

    People who place a high value on gameplay being "different" will probably be in the group that doesn't stay past the first month, they won't be leaving "for" GW2, or waiting for it to come out, they will be leaving because in that respect TOR isn't different, and will do so fairly early.  And they'll probably end up not playing GW2 for long either, since something is only different until you get used to it, so people who like something solely because it is different have a built in limit on their attention spans.

     

    And some of us sit in both camps. Me personally I totally intend to play SWTOR.. yes its a bit old fashioned MMO style but the stories kick much ass and I have no doubt I will play all 8 classes just to see all the stories. At the same time I want to see something fresh and new.. however GW2 isn't that in my eyes.. Secret World will be filling that gap nicely for me I think based on whats been released so far. But even when thats released I'll be sticking with SWTOR for a good while.

    I believe SWTOR will do well. I wont claim top or best or killer or any of that nonsence but I really believe its gonna be popular even after GW2 and all these other games come out. For starters GWs despite being free to play and blah blah never made to big a dent in the market, and myself as a pretty hardcore MMORPG player absolutely hated it largely because.. its not a MMORPG in my eyes. Its an adventure game with a lobby. It feels like they got rid of most of the MMORPG experience and made one giant dungeon/battleground que. But I say that because a core part of the MMORPG genre to me is a persistant world. When 80% of the content is instanced.. its not really persistant world. But I digress. Just my opinion anyways..

    The majority of my friends and extended friends through a number of former guilds and forums all are quite possitive about SWTOR after beta testing and excited.. and I've learned to gauge my opinion of a MMORPGs future by that since as a whole they tend to be right. Usually if they are like 'that looks lame' it usually ends up crapping out no matter how much I like it. Frustrating but so true. So based off this criteria (which is as good as any other predictions right now) .. SWTOR will live on.


    For starters GW was not FTP nor is GW2 they are BTP,allods online and rune of magic are FTP.Secondly GW2 is not the same as GWs,GW2 is a full blown MMO.Thirdly ArenaNet have sold Six million units or boxes of GW and its expansion so if that is not a dent then what is.If BioWare sold six million units including any expansion you would not be saying it never made a dent in the market. At least do your homework be for you make comments you obviously no nothing about.

     

  • PapaB34RPapaB34R StockholmPosts: 300Member

    With a budget that superseeds any computer game previously developed its highly unfair to compare SWTOR to Aoc/FF/War/Rift etc, hell I would not even count it to the first version of WoW. Its better, I played them all beta and some of them retail and I can say this, I have never played such a well polished mmo before (in beta/early stage). Its simply superior.

    Also to compare it to already released games seem unfair since, well they are at the beginning of their jorney while most of my examples have reached the end of theirs, with WoW being the exception.

    Back to the numbers, 3-4mil the first month, itl drop to 80-90% of that within 2 months and perhaps down to 70% by the third month were it will stabilize and then grow, by the first expansion in say one and a half year the game will have 5-6mil players and I believe it will continue like that.

    As for upcoming games sucking away its playerbase, gw2 and the rest wont even dent the game to claim such is just funny. Dont get me wrong Il probably gonna pick it up but cmon just like gw its a non-subscription based product that only mmo-players know anything about, it doesnt have the financial muscles to compete with the big brands.

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  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,928Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by CazNeerg

    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

    Kung Fu Panda will lose WOW subscribers, but GW2 and D3 will impact subscription MMOs.

    I could be wrong, obviously, any of us could, but I just don't see GW2 or D3 having any more impact than any other non-sub game would have.  How many people, when they are only subbed to one game, cancel that sub every time they feel like spending any amount of time playing a non-sub game?

    I can see losing people to the Secret World, but other than that...

    I plan on dedicating at least 3 months to D3 and GW2 and probably much more.  When I play those games I will not be subscribing to any MMOs.  When I play a subscription MMO that's pretty much the only game I play until I decide to take a break.

     

    I want to support GW2 by also not supporting any other MMOs.  D3 is simply highly anticpated and will be my new Blizzard go to title until they fix WOW after MoP which is too deep in development to fix things.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,928Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by madjonNZ

    3 million at launch - first month.   Asia - big unknown for sales and pricing.

    5 million at 3 months ( 70% retention on original players but gaining new players through delayed releases and word of mouth, advertising).   Asia - big unknown for sales and pricing.

    6 million at 6 months - peaking population, active subs continue playing through Alt stroylines.

    If an expansion or patch with credible content that matches *popular feedback is announced to launch within 6 months  then continued subs at around 6 million. 

     

    *Expanded space combat with heavy multiplayer involvment,   Swoop/pod crafting / racing / crowd watching, Cantina sports. IMO these additions have a playable lifetime far exceeding added dungeons in regards to development time.

    6 million in US and Europe mainly seems impossible to me.  They won't be close to WOW numbers until TOR is all over Asia, but even then it's unlikely to happen.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,928Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by CazNeerg

     


    Originally posted by VowOfSilence


    GW2: TOR loses a lot, because it doesn't have a monthly sub and offers different gameplay.

    People who place a high value on gameplay being "different" will probably be in the group that doesn't stay past the first month, they won't be leaving "for" GW2, or waiting for it to come out, they will be leaving because in that respect TOR isn't different, and will do so fairly early.  And they'll probably end up not playing GW2 for long either, since something is only different until you get used to it, so people who like something solely because it is different have a built in limit on their attention spans.


    A fair number of people bought Rift as a placeholder until TOR or GW2 comes out.

  • DannyGloverDannyGlover Portland, ORPosts: 1,277Member

    It will peak at 5 mil and retain 2 mil for the long haul

    I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself and others that I am very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means - except by getting off his back.

  • xincablexincable Jacksonville, FLPosts: 1Member

    The game will do extremely well the first year. You're looking at a possibility of somewhere between 500 and 1000 units per metropolitan square sold pre-launch, with a retention rate of 57.6% within the first quarter. Factoring in inflation as well as a slow pit of spring sales, the game will still bolster an impressive 65-75 % sale maintenance at least until the third quarter ends. Then there's the 2012 Christmas sales, which will help push the game along into yet another year. Those sales will also be boosted by the release of an expansion pack of some sort... something to maintain the hardcore gamers while tempting newbies with a flashy new feature... so probably playable Ewoks or something like that. 2013 is the real question. Personally, I don't think they'll stand a chance after the Harry Potter MMO gets released. But they've still got a fighting chance so I won't rule it out just yet.

  • jmcdermottukjmcdermottuk LiverpoolPosts: 976Member Uncommon

    I don't get why people keep saying GW2 is going to steal subs from this or that game. It's got no monthly sub so why can't you just play it in addition to a subscription game? It's like 2 for the price of 1.

  • slickbizzleslickbizzle Matthews, NCPosts: 464Member

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    I don't get why people keep saying GW2 is going to steal subs from this or that game. It's got no monthly sub so why can't you just play it in addition to a subscription game? It's like 2 for the price of 1.

     

    Maybe because a lot of people don't have time in their lives to actively play 2 MMO's.  If I  invest my time in GW2, then why would I keep paying a sub to another game I don't play?

This discussion has been closed.