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Let's have it, predictions: launch sales, retention, etc

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  • NelothNeloth None of your businessPosts: 249Member

    Launch sales: 2-3 million

    3rd month: 3-5 million

    6th month: 3-7 million

    12+ month too hard to say since it depends on how BW react to patches, expansions and improving the game, but I'd say somewhere around 4-7m

    Further I'd say 1-4 million would come from WoW

    Almost zero percent chance of going F2P, maybe a P2P/F2P hybrid if a new game changer comes into play (like Titan or some unknown and no that is not GW2) that forces BW to re-evaluate their income model.

  • alancodealancode El Mirage, AZPosts: 131Member

    Originally posted by AdamTM

    Originally posted by alancode


    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    Prediction

     

    Sales:

    Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

     

    Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

    1. Month: 80-90%

    2. Month: 50-60%

    3. Month: 30-40%

    4. Month: below 30%

     

    Free To Play prediction:

    Month 12-14 from launch

     

     

    Rofl what kinda games do people on these forums play? Runescape? 

    Whats your problem?

    It will not go FTP lol. 

    (-_-)

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick WonderlandPosts: 7,619Member

    Originally posted by SuprGamerX

    Heh ,predictions on a game that had ALOT of cancelled pre orders?

     One's thing for sure , SWtor won't have anything near what Skyrim had.   And Skyrim ain't even multiplayer (yet).

    Lol, MW3 had 10 million sales, BF3 5 million sales, that's the kind of numbers successful singleplayer games are throwing around especially if they're on multiple platforms.

    MMORPG's have almost never reached even 1 million within the first month after launch, so what you're saying, comparing MMO sales with singlerplayer game sales, is like saying 'the sky is blue',  well, duh image

     

    edit: I hadn't expected the thread to grow this fast, nice one, I see some good, solid predictions of all kinds image

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • caremuchlesscaremuchless Crestline, CAPosts: 603Member

    Originally posted by Lobotomist

    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    Prediction

     

    Sales:

    Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

     

    Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

    1. Month: 80-90%

    2. Month: 50-60%

    3. Month: 30-40%

    4. Month: below 30%

    +6. Month: ~15%

     

    Free To Play prediction:

    Month 12-14 from launch

     

    Quite similar to my predicitons (that i dont care to repeat)

    I am also suprised by hype EA managed to cook up. But i would not put the initial sales (in the west) above 2 maximum 3 millions.

    Probably 2.5 mil. initial players , or less.

     

    As for player decline. I predict there is going to be major expansion ( payed , yes sorry subscription payers )

    The expansion will be timed with release of GW2. And its going to bring back lot of players for short time.

    But that will be last straw for P2P. F2P will be soon to follow around spring 2013.

     

     

    A major expansion timed to release when GW2 releases?  So within 6 months of SWTOR releasing, you think they will release an expansion? HIGHLY doubtful.

     

    Another guy on here talking about all the raid content they are building. I can see them creating raid content. However, they will not, be creating raid content AND, ALSO, ON TOP OF, IN ADDITION TO  add a paid for expansion.

     

    Not going to happen.

     

    F2P? I don't see that happening either.

    image

  • NovaKayneNovaKayne Houston, TXPosts: 743Member

    I predict I will buy it and play it until it is no longer any fun.

     

    Say hello, To the things you've left behind. They are more a part of your life now that you can't touch them.

  • AdamTMAdamTM Frankfurt Am MainPosts: 1,376Member

    Originally posted by alancode

    Originally posted by AdamTM


    Originally posted by alancode


    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    Prediction

     

    Sales:

    Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

     

    Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

    1. Month: 80-90%

    2. Month: 50-60%

    3. Month: 30-40%

    4. Month: below 30%

     

    Free To Play prediction:

    Month 12-14 from launch

     

     

    Rofl what kinda games do people on these forums play? Runescape? 

    Whats your problem?

    It will not go FTP lol. 

    Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

    image
  • onthestickonthestick MarrakechPosts: 600Member

    Originally posted by Lobotomist

    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    Prediction

     

    Sales:

    Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

     

    Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

    1. Month: 80-90%

    2. Month: 50-60%

    3. Month: 30-40%

    4. Month: below 30%

    +6. Month: ~15%

     

    Free To Play prediction:

    Month 12-14 from launch

     

    Quite similar to my predicitons (that i dont care to repeat)

    I am also suprised by hype EA managed to cook up. But i would not put the initial sales (in the west) above 2 maximum 3 millions.

    Probably 2.5 mil. initial players , or less.

     

    As for player decline. I predict there is going to be major expansion ( payed , yes sorry subscription payers )

    The expansion will be timed with release of GW2. And its going to bring back lot of players for short time.

    But that will be last straw for P2P. F2P will be soon to follow around spring 2013.

     

    Don't feel sorry for me bub, i don't expect major expansions for free.

    How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

    ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
    US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
    Subs will be so low there is no need for more
    Snoocky-How many servers?
    The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

    Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  • caremuchlesscaremuchless Crestline, CAPosts: 603Member

    Originally posted by Neloth

    Launch sales: 2-3 million

    3rd month: 3-5 million

    6th month: 3-7 million

    12+ month too hard to say since it depends on how BW react to patches, expansions and improving the game, but I'd say somewhere around 4-7m

    Further I'd say 1-4 million would come from WoW

    Almost zero percent chance of going F2P, maybe a P2P/F2P hybrid if a new game changer comes into play (like Titan or some unknown and no that is not GW2) that forces BW to re-evaluate their income model.

    Highly optimistic much? 

     

    Your numbers are absolutely ridiculous.

     

    GW2 is a game changer if you are referring to actually doing something new /cough UNLIKE the game we are discussing now.

     

     

    image

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick WonderlandPosts: 7,619Member

    Originally posted by Lobotomist

    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    Prediction

     

    Sales:

    Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

     

    Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

    1. Month: 80-90%

    2. Month: 50-60%

    3. Month: 30-40%

    4. Month: below 30%

    +6. Month: ~15%

     

    Free To Play prediction:

    Month 12-14 from launch

     Quite similar to my predicitons (that i dont care to repeat)

    Aaw, no need, I found them and will add them here for completion, you're welcome image

     


    Originally posted by Lobotomist

    Here is just how i think things will roll out for SWTOR in its first year. Or at least how EA would maximize profits and keep SWTOR alive and thiriving.

    Month 1-3 : 1 million subs.

    Month 3-6 : 300 thousand subs.

    (GW2, D3 launches)

    Month 6-9: Expansion launched , subs on slight rise

    Month 10-12 : F2P announced , subs on all time low

    1 year : SWTOR goes F2P



    Originally posted by Lobotomist

    Originally posted by onthestick



    EA will go bankrupt after SWTOR? come on man seriously.

     They invested so much, there is always the possibility.

    Someone here said the initial sales will cover the investment. I doubt it.

    But i am almost sure they will not turn any serious profit on it.

    After they cover the initial investment and pay off Lucas farm - the game will be well past its first 6 months and declining due to launch of GW 2 and Diablo 3

     

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • caremuchlesscaremuchless Crestline, CAPosts: 603Member

    Originally posted by AdamTM

    Originally posted by alancode


    Originally posted by AdamTM


    Originally posted by alancode


    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    Prediction

     

    Sales:

    Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

     

    Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

    1. Month: 80-90%

    2. Month: 50-60%

    3. Month: 30-40%

    4. Month: below 30%

     

    Free To Play prediction:

    Month 12-14 from launch

     

     

    Rofl what kinda games do people on these forums play? Runescape? 

    Whats your problem?

    It will not go FTP lol. 

    Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

    But not within a year of releasing.

    Is AION F2P?  Is Rift F2P?

    How long did it take for LOTR and AOC to go F2P?

    image

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick WonderlandPosts: 7,619Member

    Originally posted by AdamTM

    Originally posted by alancode

    It will not go FTP lol. 

    Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

    Well, none of the AAA MMO's went F2P within a year, so that is counter the state of affairs so far, but no matter, I asked for concrete predictions and you gave one, so that was a good post in my books, thanks.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • onthestickonthestick MarrakechPosts: 600Member

    Originally posted by caremuchless

     

    Highly optimistic much? 

     

    Your numbers are absolutely ridiculous.

     

    GW2 is a game changer if you are referring to actually doing something new /cough UNLIKE the game we are discussing now.

     

     

    So you only have the right to be optimsitic about GW2?  i am very excited about GW2 but even i don't make any assumptions till i get my hands on the game and actually get to play it. SWTOR is also doing some things new but i do not expect biased eyes to see that.

    How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

    ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
    US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
    Subs will be so low there is no need for more
    Snoocky-How many servers?
    The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

    Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  • onthestickonthestick MarrakechPosts: 600Member

    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

    Aion stil P2P, Rift still P2P, WAR still P2P... all other mmos went F2P after how many years? there is difference bewteen MMOS like LOTRO, EQ2 etc going F2P recently and SWTOR going F2P in first year.

    How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

    ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
    US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
    Subs will be so low there is no need for more
    Snoocky-How many servers?
    The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

    Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  • BarryManilowBarryManilow Pasadena, DEPosts: 707Member

    Originally posted by Z3R01

    Once people exhaust the storyline content the game is going to take a massive nose dive.

    6-8 months and we will all have our own "TOR simply wasn't a good MMO" Stories.

    You can say that about any MMO, if there are no major content added.  Which you seem to be assuming.  There are big plans for this game in the future. 

  • caremuchlesscaremuchless Crestline, CAPosts: 603Member

    Originally posted by onthestick

    Originally posted by caremuchless


     

    Highly optimistic much? 

     

    Your numbers are absolutely ridiculous.

     

    GW2 is a game changer if you are referring to actually doing something new /cough UNLIKE the game we are discussing now.

     

     

    So you only have the right to be optimsitic about GW2?  i am very excited about GW2 but even i don't make any assumptions till i get my hands on the game and actually get to play it. SWTOR is also doing some things new but i do not expect biased eyes to see that.

    Welcome to the forums, its all assumptions.

    image

  • BarryManilowBarryManilow Pasadena, DEPosts: 707Member

    Originally posted by demarc01

    Originally posted by Z3R01

    Once people exhaust the storyline content the game is going to take a massive nose dive.

    6-8 months and we will all have our own "TOR simply wasn't a good MMO" Stories.

    This is my major concern with the game.

    SWToR is building alot of hype on its story. Yes the story is VERY good.

    The trouble is storys are finite, they end. SWToR retention will be based, as with all themeparks, directly on how quickly Bioware can release polished additional content and story chapters.

    LotRO has a similar issue with its book quests. In general the book quests are very good, however they are VERY slow comming at times.

    I hope Bioware can keep the story flowing ... that however remains to be seen.

     

    My guesses,

     

    It'll be like every other themepark recently released, It'll sell very well lots of servers will open and things will be rosey (Month 1)

    By month 3 subs will be down as the hardcore chew through content and get bored. Servers will close and haters will scream *i told you so* (even though its very NORMAL for some people to not stay and servers to close)

    By month 6 population either Bioware will be releasing new content and the population will be stable and healthy and the game will be a huge win ... or ... lack of content additions will see more people leaving and the game will be condidered another *rift* ....

     

    Time will tell.

    My problem with Rift, is that each update was so one dimensional.   Which was closing Rifts, and I guess the game revolves around that fact.  Don't mean it gets freaking borin after closing the 1000th rift with the same conclusion...It's never ending so it feels like the groundhouse movie.

  • BlackraynBlackrayn H-town, IAPosts: 142Member

    Originally posted by onthestick

    Originally posted by AdamTM


     

    Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

    Aion stil P2P, Rift still P2P, WAR still P2P... all other mmos went F2P after how many years? there is difference bewteen MMOS like LOTRO, EQ2 etc going F2P recently and SWTOR going F2P in first year.

     

     Adam if you're basing F2P recently on the likes of games like LOTRO (which released in 2007) and EQ2 (which released in '04) as a sign of the times because these games after respectfully 4 and 7 years of P2P finally went F2P. Then if such is the case, I'm feeling pretty good of ToR having atleast a good 6-8 years of P2P. And I for one can only hope so!

  • AdamTMAdamTM Frankfurt Am MainPosts: 1,376Member

    Originally posted by MMO.Maverick

    Originally posted by AdamTM


    Originally posted by alancode



    It will not go FTP lol. 

    Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

    Well, none of the AAA MMO's went F2P within a year, so that is counter the state of affairs so far, but no matter, I asked for concrete predictions and you gave one, so that was a good post in my books, thanks.

    I think that SWTOR might have a very unique situation in which F2P will come faster than other games to offset the damage. Not as a financial decission but as a marketing-decission.

    Im not basing the prediction solely on previous games but rather a rational analysis of the market. And freemium is the currently prefered business model in MMOs.

     

    There are some really good articles about that on Gamasutra.

    image
  • parrotpholkparrotpholk Leland, NCPosts: 3,275Member

    I think you will see initial sales of close to 3 million.  I would expect the churn to be very high the first 6 months so would not be surprised if the sub count at that time to be close to 3 million but the year numbers I think will show a substantial drop due to all the normal reasons.  I think it will settle around the 500k mark long term but will never see WOW success in terms of boxes sold or subs.  I expect total box/digital sales to hit around 7 or 8 million.

  • onthestickonthestick MarrakechPosts: 600Member

    Originally posted by parrotpholk

    I think you will see initial sales of close to 3 million.  I would expect the churn to be very high the first 6 months so would not be surprised if the sub count at that time to be close to 3 million but the year numbers I think will show a substantial drop due to all the normal reasons.  I think it will settle around the 500k mark long term but will never see WOW success in terms of boxes sold or subs.  I expect total box/digital sales to hit around 7 or 8 million.

    To touch WOW in terms of over all subs and success Bioware will need to release SWTOR in Asia. And i really doubt they have any plans for that.

    How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

    ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
    US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
    Subs will be so low there is no need for more
    Snoocky-How many servers?
    The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

    Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  • BarryManilowBarryManilow Pasadena, DEPosts: 707Member

    Originally posted by niceguy3978

    Originally posted by SuprGamerX

    Heh ,predictions on a game that had ALOT of cancelled pre orders?

     One's thing for sure , SWtor won't have anything near what Skyrim had.   And Skyrim ain't even multiplayer (yet).

    So yeah , I'm not expecting SWtor to be sold out on release , or ever in that matter.

    For Skyrim I had to wander around a few hours to get myself a copy.

     SWtor , like Diablo 3 , took way to long to release , was announced way to early , hype was lost on these games years ago , people have moved on. Sure people will try them out , but will very likely stop after a month or two. 

     When I view a trailer on any sort of MMO , it's to give me a idea and then I play it , but after 14 years of doing so , I can already know how the game will shape up and be like after a few hours of game play. And besides light sabers and some bobafetts , SWtor doesn't shine in any perticular area out of every other MMO released before it.   IF it were me , I would of made like CCP that will be adding Dust 514 onto EVE-Online , what I mean is that they should of kept Galaxies up and put SWtor ontop of it , NOW that would of been freaking kick ass. But no , narrow headed companies don't think outside the box. At least we still got CCP and thank God for that!!!

    Skyrim sold 3.5 million copies in its first 48 hours.  I'm sure that SWTOR won't sell that many copies either, I am pretty sure, however, that if it were to launch on the XBOX 360 and PS3 in addition to the PC it would have sold alot more than that, but since it is a pc only title, I will say that it will sell alot more copies on the PC than Skyrim did.

    I am glad its not for console platform. 

  • fenistilfenistil GliwicePosts: 3,005Member

    Short prediction:

     

    - HUGE Sales (biggest release since WoW imho)

    - Average at best retention (people are bored of game that repeat same old once again).

     

    Concluding : short term - big success  average and long-term - succesfull but nowhere near WoW.

     

    They won't be able to keep people subscribed as long as WoW did.

  • BarryManilowBarryManilow Pasadena, DEPosts: 707Member

    Originally posted by AdamTM

    Originally posted by alancode


    Originally posted by AdamTM


    Originally posted by alancode


    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    Prediction

     

    Sales:

    Launch box/digital-sales in the first week (including pre-orders): ~3-4 Million

     

    Subscription retention rates (from initial sales, numbers at the -end- of each month):

    1. Month: 80-90%

    2. Month: 50-60%

    3. Month: 30-40%

    4. Month: below 30%

     

    Free To Play prediction:

    Month 12-14 from launch

     

     

    Rofl what kinda games do people on these forums play? Runescape? 

    Whats your problem?

    It will not go FTP lol. 

    Seeing as almost every MMORPG of the past went F2P recently, strong words.

    I guess...when an MMO subs range in the 25k-100k number :)  You see that in SWTOR any time soon?  Doubtful, but I think it's just wishful thinking on your part.

  • karmathkarmath Posts: 829Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by onthestick

    Originally posted by caremuchless


     

    Highly optimistic much? 

     

    Your numbers are absolutely ridiculous.

     

    GW2 is a game changer if you are referring to actually doing something new /cough UNLIKE the game we are discussing now.

     

     

    So you only have the right to be optimsitic about GW2?  i am very excited about GW2 but even i don't make any assumptions till i get my hands on the game and actually get to play it. SWTOR is also doing some things new but i do not expect biased eyes to see that.

     

    The only two 'new' features I have come across for ToR is the companions, which for me and alot of others is a big minus, I cannot think of one single game were AI NPC allies were more of a hinderance than help or just plain useless.  The other being space combat which really isnt something new, but new to MMO's because no developer has been dumb enough to implement a starfox clone as a feature.

     

    So please englighten me with features that arnt copy pasted from everyother themepark with a SW theme slaped on.

     

    EDIT: Forgot predictions!

     

    Massive sales at day 1 and for the first month, meduim exodus after that, major exodus after 3 months, servers dying and merging at the 6 month mark. Sound familiar?

    Warhammer, Aion, FF, Rift all followed this timeline allmost exactly.

     

  • CazNeergCazNeerg Puyallup, WAPosts: 2,198Member

    Originally posted by AdamTM

     

    I think that SWTOR might have a very unique situation in which F2P will come faster than other games to offset the damage. Not as a financial decission but as a marketing-decission.

    Im not basing the prediction solely on previous games but rather a rational analysis of the market. And freemium is the currently prefered business model in MMOs.

     There are some really good articles about that on Gamasutra.

    What damage?  TOR will be in the black on box/digital sales alone by the end of the first week, without even factoring in subscriptions.  Freemium is only currently preferred for two types of MMO; the old, tired ones, and the ones that didn't deserve to be called AAA in the first place.  No game that is capable of sustaining a respectable playerbase (half million plus) with subscriptions chooses to go Freemium.  TOR will easily hit that number.  Worst case scenario, in the long run, is probably leveling out at a million subscribers and holding there.

     


    Originally posted by fenistil

    Short prediction:

     - HUGE Sales (biggest release since WoW imho)

    - Average at best retention (people are bored of game that repeat same old once again).

     Concluding : short term - big success  average and long-term - succesfull but nowhere near WoW.

     They won't be able to keep people subscribed as long as WoW did.

    WoW isn't anywhere near WoW anymore.  Keeping our predictions in the present/future, rather than dwelling on the past, it's entirely possible that TOR will have more western subscribers a year from now than WoW does.


    Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
    Through passion, I gain strength.
    Through strength, I gain power.
    Through power, I gain victory.
    Through victory, my chains are broken.
    The Force shall free me.

This discussion has been closed.