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What f2p game will be a household name in 10 years?

ToradacToradac High Point, NCPosts: 23Member

http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/4523454#4523454


Originally posted by Toradac

Name one f2p game that will be a household name 10 years from now or that even a majority of  players in the community will talk about 10 years from now?

    I'll do you one better.  PROVE that any game mentioned will not be a "household name 10 years from now or that even a majority of players in the community will talk about 10 years from now ".  I'm willing to bet that I have a better chance of successfully guessing which ones will make it than you do of proving me wrong in your next post.

 

    As for the OP, the games that are really starting to annoy me are the ones that are going free to play, yet if you get a subscription anyways, you still don't get access to everything and have to use points to get stuff. (City of Heroes, LOTRO).

 

In an attempt to be polite to the OP on that thread I thought I would take this to a new thread.

 

First off  the two games that you have mentioned are Hybrids not true f2p models. They went to this system to try to squeeze a little more money out of them before they die in my opinion. So the first order of business would be to define what you consider to be a f2p game?

 

I personally feel there is no loyalty in f2p games. I feel this models only purpose is to suck as much money out of you as they can until they come out with the next money pit. Which is ok for clearly growing percentage of players that are not looking to be part of something that can span years. There is nothing wrong with that but lets be honest here. That type of player just wants change of scenery for awhile until they see something else that catch's their eye.

If I look on this site at the highly rated f2p games i.e. Atlantica Online, Ryzom, Vindictus, Global Agenda, Wizard101 do you really feel that we will remember these in 10 years? Outside of this website I have never even heard of them.

I have not seen anything that seems like a UO, AC1, EQ1, WOW or maybe even Eve which I would have to say is a truly unique game that caters to a very nitch market, not my taste but hey it takes all kinds.

Now granted there are always exceptions to the rule and I would not be foolish enough to say there is not one out there on the horizon somewhere that may beat the odds but it's doubtful imo.

But obviously I can not make a case any more than you could with the limited information we both shared in our trolls lol.

 

I'm in between games at the moment I truly would love to know of a f2p that's out there at the moment that really does have the stuff to stand the test of time? So far I have not found it.

«13

Comments

  • XthosXthos Columbus, OHPosts: 2,628Member

    IF you say f2p from the start....I guess maybe Planetside 2?   I have not seen a f2p game that I would play yet, either due to the game, or the cash shop...I do not like anything that offers stuff outside of cosmetic/vanity...But to be fair, I do not jump games, or play things just to be playing something.  I am in between games now, and waiting on swtor (am wary of it, but friends are playing).  Last game was Rift.

     

    I do plan on playing GW2, but it is b2p, so it does not fit your description.

     

  • ClassicstarClassicstar rotjeknorPosts: 2,690Member

    I wanne see first game thats quality and FREE TWO PLAY and i realy care for with no Item/cashshop and i have access to all content.

    Name one?

    Even these days PAY TWO PLAY games starting to have item/cashshop.

    And im affraid in few years time all games are infected/poluted with the diablo 3 real money virus.

    Whole directions of games is totally going wrong way in my opinion.

    But luckly i have a strong backbone and stick to my promise and hold myself to it idon't play games that have itemshops or limited access but claiming to be free POWER TO ME they dont get my money ill stick to solo games(also dont buy DLC in those games).

    At moment i realy dont see any game that will talk about in 10 years time.

     

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  • OtakunOtakun New Providence, PAPosts: 864Member

    We really need another thread like this? Seems all MMORPG.com is going to be is F2P vs P2P before too long. It's already getting old.

  • xersentxersent StevenagePosts: 613Member

    World of Warcraft will be Free2play 10 years from now and it will be packed....

    image

  • ToradacToradac High Point, NCPosts: 23Member

    Originally posted by Xthos

     

    IF you say f2p from the start....I guess maybe Planetside 2?   I have not seen a f2p game that I would play yet, either due to the game, or the cash shop...I do not like anything that offers stuff outside of cosmetic/vanity...But to be fair, I do not jump games, or play things just to be playing something.  I am in between games now, and waiting on swtor (am wary of it, but friends are playing).  Last game was Rift.

     

    I do plan on playing GW2, but it is b2p, so it does not fit your description.

     

     

    Yeah I don't consider that a f2p game. I keep running across all these posts about how fantastic f2p model is on these forums but never see the games attached to them. The ones they like to talk about are subs that failed and have been wondrously saved through a misleading hybrid models.

    I think I have looked at planet side 2 and from the little I saw that does look like it has the potential to be a good game.

    But yeah I'm the exact same boat left Rift a couple of weeks ago. It's is beautiful and about the funnest first 20 levels of any game I have played but....

    Been thinking I was going to wait on ToR but like you I'm feeling a little leery of it and may be waffling more towards GW2 atm.

  • ToradacToradac High Point, NCPosts: 23Member

    Originally posted by xersent

    World of Warcraft will be Free2play 10 years from now and it will be packed....

    I don't doubt that it will be around. Packed however? I do doubt that. Nor would I consider that a true f2p game in that they did not build their base on that model.

  • XAPKenXAPKen Northwest, INPosts: 4,924Member Uncommon

    I don't have anything to support this other than observation, but my perspective is that F2P games have roughly a six year life cycle.

     

    First 18 months from release, strong population and growth over this period.  It's new, it has limited reputation, people who are curious check it out.  Content and features releases are common.  Game is reasonably up to date.

    Second 18 months, existing playerbase draw.  Others are playing it, they bring in more players mostly as repacements for ones who have left.  Growth is nominal.  Content updates are less common.  Game is starting to show its age compared to new releases.

    36 months following, gradual decay.  The newness is gone.  Content updates are few and far between, if any.  Anything that's not fixed yet isn't going to be fixed.  Other than the occasional walk-in, most of the population has been here for a while.  Multiple server mergers over this time... if there is even that much effort to keep the gameworld alive.  Game is now significantly dated in terms of appearance and features.

    Six years out.  Game is now virtually unheard of as there are 4 generations of newer games on the market.  By this point it is questionable as to if it's worth keeping the servers operating.  Gameplay and graphics are at best legacy quality due to improvements in hardware / software and changes in what's normal for design.


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now turned Amateur Game Developer.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  Realm Lords 2 on MMORPG.com
  • CalerxesCalerxes LondonPosts: 1,630Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Toradac

    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/4523454#4523454


    Originally posted by Toradac

    Name one f2p game that will be a household name 10 years from now or that even a majority of  players in the community will talk about 10 years from now?

        I'll do you one better.  PROVE that any game mentioned will not be a "household name 10 years from now or that even a majority of players in the community will talk about 10 years from now ".  I'm willing to bet that I have a better chance of successfully guessing which ones will make it than you do of proving me wrong in your next post.

     

        As for the OP, the games that are really starting to annoy me are the ones that are going free to play, yet if you get a subscription anyways, you still don't get access to everything and have to use points to get stuff. (City of Heroes, LOTRO).

     

    In an attempt to be polite to the OP on that thread I thought I would take this to a new thread.

     

    First off  the two games that you have mentioned are Hybrids not true f2p models. They went to this system to try to squeeze a little more money out of them before they die in my opinion. So the first order of business would be to define what you consider to be a f2p game?

     

    I personally feel there is no loyalty in f2p games. I feel this models only purpose is to suck as much money out of you as they can until they come out with the next money pit. Which is ok for clearly growing percentage of players that are not looking to be part of something that can span years. There is nothing wrong with that but lets be honest here. That type of player just wants change of scenery for awhile until they see something else that catch's their eye.

    If I look on this site at the highly rated f2p games i.e. Atlantica Online, Ryzom, Vindictus, Global Agenda, Wizard101 do you really feel that we will remember these in 10 years? Outside of this website I have never even heard of them.

    I have not seen anything that seems like a UO, AC1, EQ1, WOW or maybe even Eve which I would have to say is a truly unique game that caters to a very nitch market, not my taste but hey it takes all kinds.

    Now granted there are always exceptions to the rule and I would not be foolish enough to say there is not one out there on the horizon somewhere that may beat the odds but it's doubtful imo.

    But obviously I can not make a case any more than you could with the limited information we both shared in our trolls lol.

     

    I'm in between games at the moment I truly would love to know of a f2p that's out there at the moment that really does have the stuff to stand the test of time? So far I have not found it.

     

    To start Ryzom is not f2p it has a long trial upto skill level 125 with no cash shop. Also you say that f2p games have no loyal fan base, tell that to the people that have been playing and still play Last Chaos(2006), Silk Road Online(2005), Perfect World(2008), Runes Of Magic(2008 and 19 EU servers), Atlantica(2008), Allods(2010), Sword2(2007) and there are thousands doing that so another myth perpetuated by people who don't like the f2p model. The f2p play model in the west is only just gaining momentum with more and more people switching because of the semi-f2p models aka Freemium that have been adopted by many old p2p games and the stigma that is slowly dying away as people try and like the payment model. The f2p model in the east is much more prevalent and thus more accepted. The outrage I see around these boards towards the f2p payment model is hilarious but I can only imagine the exact same arguments when the p2p payment model came in in the 90's....

    "wait! did I hear you right? you pay to play a game after you bought the box? U MAD BRO?" to add a modern twist image

     

    So persoanlly I believe that games like Silk Road Online, Last Chaos, Perfect World, Runes Of Magic, Atlantica and for its big cash shop cock up at launch Allods will be remembered as household names.

    This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up™ the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.

  • CalerxesCalerxes LondonPosts: 1,630Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    I don't have anything to support this other than observation, but my perspective is that F2P games have roughly a six year life cycle.

     

    First 18 months from release, strong population and growth over this period.  It's new, it has limited reputation, people who are curious check it out.  Content and features releases are common.  Game is reasonably up to date.

    Second 18 months, existing playerbase draw.  Others are playing it, they bring in more players mostly as repacements for ones who have left.  Growth is nominal.  Content updates are less common.  Game is starting to show its age compared to new releases.

    36 months following, gradual decay.  The newness is gone.  Content updates are few and far between, if any.  Anything that's not fixed yet isn't going to be fixed.  Other than the occasional walk-in, most of the population has been here for a while.  Multiple server mergers over this time... if there is even that much effort to keep the gameworld alive.  Game is now significantly dated in terms of appearance and features.

    Six years out.  Game is now virtually unheard of as there are 4 generations of newer games on the market.  By this point it is questionable as to if it's worth keeping the servers operating.  Gameplay and graphics are at best legacy quality due to improvements in hardware / software and changes in what's normal for design.

     

    You know what I'd love a six year cycle if I owned a development house what a great business model to have. image

     

    So now we come to the modern p2p business model...

     

    Start development....start a few internet rumours....leak a few screen shots.....start putting out sketchy details of game content ie classes, skills, setting etc....keep adding more and more content details over the next few years increasing hyperbole about how awesome the game will be....release a non-confirmed release window......miss release window.....miss release window again....finally give a confirmed release date.....start preorders.......launch FULL hype machine.......GAME LAUNCHES.......hundreds of thousands of box sales......players loving it or cannot get game to run properly starting the massively entertaining message board flame wars between Fanboys and Haters.......1 month later hardcore players hitting cap thus screaming on message boards GAME HAS NO FRIKKING ENDGAME.....2 months later rest of player base hits cap realises nothing to do and gets bored......developers pretend to start listening to playerbase sending out rushed news reports about how they are going to give players what they want in the next patch......next patch releases......game still has no endgame.....more players leave.....next patch releases......no endgame but mucho NERFBAT to many classes....more players leave......next patch releases.....a new raid is released.....players complete raid in 1 week get bored.....more players leave......6 months later game population is on its knees and people say "do you remember that awesome 'INSERT TITLE' MMO that was released a while ago is it still going?"......1 year later game goes FREE TO PLAY.

    This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up™ the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.

  • GrahorGrahor aaaPosts: 828Member

    And this is why B2P model would be much more successfull.

     

    You still get your box sale profits... and the loss of subs doesn't affect you; people play as much as they want and don't whine half as much; people go to other games and return back, nobody screams "what do I pay $15 a month for", etc.

     

    Let's take SWTOR. I like the idea of the game so much more than, say, GW2 - I will certainly buy it at launch, I will play for one month... And then I'll unsub, because I'll burn through all the content that is of interest for me. I'm not going to pay $15/m for huttball. Population would shrink, etc etc.

     

    Now for, say, GW2. I will still buy it, but I can play it without a hurry. A day here, a day were, I'll play it for some months and then I'll left it. Then in 3-4 months I'll install it again and play some more... I will feel no pressure to burn through content and unsub.

     

    Oh, and if you want "household name amongst F2P" - it's World of Tanks. Pretty much THE most successfull title I've seen in F2P, I'm playing it for more than a year and it's as fun as it was at day 1. At least 4 games are produced now that copy it - World of Planes, World of Warplanes, World of Spacecrafts (not sure about actual name, but it's a clear clone of concept), and World of Ships or something like that.

  • jpnzjpnz SydneyPosts: 3,529Member

    Originally posted by Grahor

    And this is why B2P model would be much more successfull.

     

    You still get your box sale profits... and the loss of subs doesn't affect you; people play as much as they want and don't whine half as much; people go to other games and return back, nobody screams "what do I pay $15 a month for", etc.

     

    Let's take SWTOR. I like the idea of the game so much more than, say, GW2 - I will certainly buy it at launch, I will play for one month... And then I'll unsub, because I'll burn through all the content that is of interest for me. I'm not going to pay $15/m for huttball. Population would shrink, etc etc.

     

    Now for, say, GW2. I will still buy it, but I can play it without a hurry. A day here, a day were, I'll play it for some months and then I'll left it. Then in 3-4 months I'll install it again and play some more... I will feel no pressure to burn through content and unsub.

     

    Oh, and if you want "household name amongst F2P" - it's World of Tanks. Pretty much THE most successfull title I've seen in F2P, I'm playing it for more than a year and it's as fun as it was at day 1. At least 4 games are produced now that copy it - World of Planes, World of Warplanes, World of Spacecrafts (not sure about actual name, but it's a clear clone of concept), and World of Ships or something like that.

    Actually, if we assume the cost of running / maintaining a game (server + bandwidth cost etc) is the same, a P2P will be more profitable.

    You get box-sales plus subs.

     

    Most F2P game devs are privately owned so there isn't really actual financial numbers to say which is 'most successful' but League Of Legends has the most 'active accounts'.

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • kitaradkitarad RomePosts: 1,745Member Uncommon

    F2p for me is like a throwaway game. I am not really serious because I can play it any time I want hence I don't play it in the end. P2P I make an effort because I am paying and need to play it and therefore make a commitment of sorts. The problem with f2p is its very transient nature to me at least that leads me to not take it seriously. I mean I play freemium games like DDO but it is just like p2p for me so I am interested in getting somewhere in a time frame because I am paying a sub. F2P I check it out then I am not really trying you know because I know it is free. It is a mental state I cannot explain it.

     

    So because of how I approach a f2p game I doubt any one of them will stay in my head for very long for me to actually think about them in ten years. Heavens ten years is an awful long time. I think in these ten years since 1999 the only games that have actually lived in my head is Everquest and perhaps WoW and FFXI.

    image

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Stone Mountain, GAPosts: 13,671Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    I don't have anything to support this other than observation, but my perspective is that F2P games have roughly a six year life cycle.

     

    First 18 months from release, strong population and growth over this period.  It's new, it has limited reputation, people who are curious check it out.  Content and features releases are common.  Game is reasonably up to date.

    Second 18 months, existing playerbase draw.  Others are playing it, they bring in more players mostly as repacements for ones who have left.  Growth is nominal.  Content updates are less common.  Game is starting to show its age compared to new releases.

    36 months following, gradual decay.  The newness is gone.  Content updates are few and far between, if any.  Anything that's not fixed yet isn't going to be fixed.  Other than the occasional walk-in, most of the population has been here for a while.  Multiple server mergers over this time... if there is even that much effort to keep the gameworld alive.  Game is now significantly dated in terms of appearance and features.

    Six years out.  Game is now virtually unheard of as there are 4 generations of newer games on the market.  By this point it is questionable as to if it's worth keeping the servers operating.  Gameplay and graphics are at best legacy quality due to improvements in hardware / software and changes in what's normal for design.

     

    Can you give examples of some of the free to play games that follow that pattern? Of the f2p games  that actually have been around about 6 years or more - mabinogi, maple story, westward journey, habbo hotel, etc - I just don't see that pattern present at all. Which 6yr old MMOs were you observing?

     

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • CalerxesCalerxes LondonPosts: 1,630Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Loktofeit

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    I don't have anything to support this other than observation, but my perspective is that F2P games have roughly a six year life cycle.

     

    First 18 months from release, strong population and growth over this period.  It's new, it has limited reputation, people who are curious check it out.  Content and features releases are common.  Game is reasonably up to date.

    Second 18 months, existing playerbase draw.  Others are playing it, they bring in more players mostly as repacements for ones who have left.  Growth is nominal.  Content updates are less common.  Game is starting to show its age compared to new releases.

    36 months following, gradual decay.  The newness is gone.  Content updates are few and far between, if any.  Anything that's not fixed yet isn't going to be fixed.  Other than the occasional walk-in, most of the population has been here for a while.  Multiple server mergers over this time... if there is even that much effort to keep the gameworld alive.  Game is now significantly dated in terms of appearance and features.

    Six years out.  Game is now virtually unheard of as there are 4 generations of newer games on the market.  By this point it is questionable as to if it's worth keeping the servers operating.  Gameplay and graphics are at best legacy quality due to improvements in hardware / software and changes in what's normal for design.

     

    Can you give examples of some of the free to play games that follow that pattern? Of the f2p games  that actually have been around about 6 years or more - mabinogi, maple story, westard journey, habbo hotel, etc - I just don't see that pattern present at all. Which 6yr old MMOs were you observing?

     

     

    I don't think he can because he made it all up and actually says that at the start of the post so I think this goes into the catagory of wishful thinking and f2p is like McDonald's blah de blah de blah.

    This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up™ the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.

  • XAPKenXAPKen Northwest, INPosts: 4,924Member Uncommon

    Can you give examples of some of the free to play games that follow that pattern? Of the f2p games  that actually have been around about 6 years or more - mabinogi, maple story, westard journey, habbo hotel, etc - I just don't see that pattern present at all. Which 6yr old MMOs were you observing?

     

    One being Runes of Magic.  Here's a link to a post about dead population issues and needing a server merger.


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now turned Amateur Game Developer.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  Realm Lords 2 on MMORPG.com
  • zymurgeistzymurgeist Pittsville, VAPosts: 5,212Member Uncommon

    What MMO of any type besides WoW has ever or will ever be a household name is a better question. The answer as far as I can tell is None.

    "Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  • Batak_KillerBatak_Killer BelgradePosts: 347Member Uncommon

    Dont know if anyone mentioned this game http://www.pathofexile.com/. It will be a truly free to play game with no cash shop but just some convenience rmt. Plus im in the beta and its aweome! 

    Its not a true mmorpg, but more of an online arpg. It has some amazing ideas regarding how classes, skills and weapons work. Check it out!

    image

  • CalerxesCalerxes LondonPosts: 1,630Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    Can you give examples of some of the free to play games that follow that pattern? Of the f2p games  that actually have been around about 6 years or more - mabinogi, maple story, westard journey, habbo hotel, etc - I just don't see that pattern present at all. Which 6yr old MMOs were you observing?

     

    One being Runes of Magic.  Here's a link to a post about dead population issues and needing a server merger.

     

    Runes Of Magic that was released in 2008 and has 19 EU servers? and you find 1 thread about 1 server having pop problems and its a PvP server to boot, nice research.

    This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up™ the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.

  • ThaneThane berlinPosts: 2,232Member Uncommon

    league of legends

    "I'll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up! Not me!"

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Stone Mountain, GAPosts: 13,671Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    Can you give examples of some of the free to play games that follow that pattern? Of the f2p games  that actually have been around about 6 years or more - mabinogi, maple story, westard journey, habbo hotel, etc - I just don't see that pattern present at all. Which 6yr old MMOs were you observing?

     

    One being Runes of Magic.  Here's a link to a post about dead population issues and needing a server merger.

    Your link says the PVP server is dead after two years. Of the P2P games that have been released over the past FOUR YEARS, which ones have had PVP servers that have lasted that long? I don't think you read that link at all, as it says nothing about the health of the game overall.

    It's also worth noting that Runewalker Entertainment is currently developing a second MMO (Dragon's Prophet) which would be a monumental task if Runes of Magic wasn't making enough money to support development of both teams.

     

    Nevermind that... how about this?

     

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • XAPKenXAPKen Northwest, INPosts: 4,924Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Calerxes

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    Can you give examples of some of the free to play games that follow that pattern? Of the f2p games  that actually have been around about 6 years or more - mabinogi, maple story, westard journey, habbo hotel, etc - I just don't see that pattern present at all. Which 6yr old MMOs were you observing?

     

    One being Runes of Magic.  Here's a link to a post about dead population issues and needing a server merger.

     

    Runes Of Magic that was released in 2008 and has 19 EU servers? and you find 1 thread about 1 server having pop problems and its a PvP server to boot, nice research.

     

    Thanks, I think.   I'm not saying I'm correct in my estimation of life cycle.  It's a theory, nothing more.  Given a finite population of MMO players and increased competition in games, I believe that players will gravitate to popular games leaving others to die off.  The six years figure is based on changes in hardware and diminished return on promotional investment.

    I cannot imagine that there hasn't been a free to play game die off, but maybe there hasn't.  The six year figure might be more like twelve.  I don't know.  I still feel that eventually players will move on, and eventually a games profitability will diminish until it's no longer worth it to keep the lights on.  If it doesn't it's the first commercial enterprise that I can think of that doesn't follow that pattern.  Some businesses start, grow, and die.  I don't see how it wouldn't apply to MMORPGs, but maybe it doesn't.


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now turned Amateur Game Developer.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  Realm Lords 2 on MMORPG.com
  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Stone Mountain, GAPosts: 13,671Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    Originally posted by Calerxes


    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    Can you give examples of some of the free to play games that follow that pattern? Of the f2p games  that actually have been around about 6 years or more - mabinogi, maple story, westard journey, habbo hotel, etc - I just don't see that pattern present at all. Which 6yr old MMOs were you observing?

     

    One being Runes of Magic.  Here's a link to a post about dead population issues and needing a server merger.

     

    Runes Of Magic that was released in 2008 and has 19 EU servers? and you find 1 thread about 1 server having pop problems and its a PvP server to boot, nice research.

     

    Thanks, I think.   I'm not saying I'm correct in my estimation of life cycle.  It's a theory, nothing more.  Given a finite population of MMO players and increased competition in games, I believe that players will gravitate to popular games leaving others to die off.  The six years figure is based on changes in hardware and diminished return on promotional investment.

    I cannot imagine that there hasn't been a free to play game die off, but maybe there hasn't.  The six year figure might be more like twelve.  I don't know.  I still feel that eventually players will move on, and eventually a games profitability will diminish until it's no longer worth it to keep the lights on.  If it doesn't it's the first commercial enterprise that I can think of that doesn't follow that pattern.  Some businesses start, grow, and die.  I don't see how it wouldn't apply to MMORPGs, but maybe it doesn't.

    No one is contesting that businesses die eventually. Your timeline of F2P growth and decline is what people are questioning as it contradicts history and any existing data on the matter.

     

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • XAPKenXAPKen Northwest, INPosts: 4,924Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Loktofeit

     I don't see how it wouldn't apply to MMORPGs, but maybe it doesn't.

    No one is contesting that businesses die eventually. Your timeline of F2P growth and decline is what people are questioning as it contradicts history and any existing data on the matter.

     

    Care to shed some light on what might be a more accurate timeline?  The six years was a guess, and in reviewing release dates I'm clearly incorrect.  Most if not all of the games I recognise are still in operation.

    disclaimed: I haven't even been MMOing for six years.  I'm hardly in a position to judge long term reliably.


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now turned Amateur Game Developer.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  Realm Lords 2 on MMORPG.com
  • CalerxesCalerxes LondonPosts: 1,630Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    Originally posted by Calerxes


    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    Can you give examples of some of the free to play games that follow that pattern? Of the f2p games  that actually have been around about 6 years or more - mabinogi, maple story, westard journey, habbo hotel, etc - I just don't see that pattern present at all. Which 6yr old MMOs were you observing?

     

    One being Runes of Magic.  Here's a link to a post about dead population issues and needing a server merger.

     

    Runes Of Magic that was released in 2008 and has 19 EU servers? and you find 1 thread about 1 server having pop problems and its a PvP server to boot, nice research.

     

    Thanks, I think.   I'm not saying I'm correct in my estimation of life cycle.  It's a theory, nothing more.  Given a finite population of MMO players and increased competition in games, I believe that players will gravitate to popular games leaving others to die off.  The six years figure is based on changes in hardware and diminished return on promotional investment.

    I cannot imagine that there hasn't been a free to play game die off, but maybe there hasn't.  The six year figure might be more like twelve.  I don't know.  I still feel that eventually players will move on, and eventually a games profitability will diminish until it's no longer worth it to keep the lights on.  If it doesn't it's the first commercial enterprise that I can think of that doesn't follow that pattern.  Some businesses start, grow, and die.  I don't see how it wouldn't apply to MMORPGs, but maybe it doesn't.

     

    I was actually being sarcastic, yes I know its a low form of humour but my point is that Runes Of Magic has 19 EU servers and I imagine the same in the US and you find one server that has pop problems and its a PvP server which 1: PvP is not as popular as PvE and 2: if a PvP server pop drops to a certain point it is likely to collapse because you cannot PvP without many other players around and PvP'ers want to PvP as much as they can so they'll just find another server or leave the game, which was hinted at in that thread when they mention the popoulation was fine a few months ago. Now as Lokto says having 2 years on a PvP is probably good going DAOC only had really 3 years of life before population problems arose and thats the nature of PvP games you need a certain amount of population for PvP to be viable, fun and regular.

     

     

    Also to add that when I played the game my server was very healthy being a PvE server and they had just opened two new servers as well. ROM is probably the most popular f2p in the west and has m,ore servers than any other I've ever played. 

    This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up™ the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.

  • CalerxesCalerxes LondonPosts: 1,630Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

    Originally posted by Loktofeit

     I don't see how it wouldn't apply to MMORPGs, but maybe it doesn't.

    No one is contesting that businesses die eventually. Your timeline of F2P growth and decline is what people are questioning as it contradicts history and any existing data on the matter.

     

    Care to shed some light on what might be a more accurate timeline?  The six years was a guess, and in reviewing release dates I'm clearly incorrect.  Most if not all of the games I recognise are still in operation.

    disclaimed: I haven't even been MMOing for six years.  I'm hardly in a position to judge long term reliably.

     

    I think a good rule of thumb in a theory is do not make assumptions.

    This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up™ the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.

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