I voted Mediocre. I don't think it will have WOW's sucess, but I think it will do better than all others that have come out after it. I think it will at least keep a million subs on average.
Success means nothing to the individual,the ONLY thingh that matters is how good the game is to ME.
I know as does EA that just making a game based on a known IP will have decent sales numbers and so happens that the Star Wars brand is maybe the most well known ip there is.So it is a no brainer that this game wil lahve large sales numbers.
Does this equate to a game being good?Not a chance and by sheer fact so many are willing to pre oder a product they have never even tried shows sales alone man almost notihng.
One huge blemish is RMT,does the game have a player driven economy and if it does ,has Bioware made any indication of making the game RMT ready?
IMO the most important factor is does or wil lthe game offer a true MMO experience,or will it be more of the current trend to solo to end game level then raid or pvp?If the game cannot deliver a MMO experience then it fails at what it claims to be.
Does the game have chance to be a success as a MMO?I think it maybe has a small chance,it is still imo a game thaty needs to be played for a bit,early indications are not even close to being enough to fully judge this game yet.One HUGE mistake is personal stories,that is a single player design,the game is suppose to carry a MMO story line not a solo player story line.
My gut feeling is that Bioware does not understand a MMO design,they are still going to make a Single player game with added internet.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but solo ability is now deemed an essential part of the MMO experience. MMOs still offer plenty of group and raid content, so I'm not sure why you define one that has solo content as not being a "True" MMO. Bioware knows exactly what they're doing and they know exactly what a MMO is and what it entails. These guys have been and currently are professionals in their field and have done nothing to deserve being labeled as clueless.
I didn't care for the definition of option 2 so I went with "Other". I feel it will be a strong success for its fan base but the fan base isn't as large as WoW.
I have played it and am ecstatic that I preordered the collectors edition!
My opinion is thus, it will have a steady incline in population... more than we've seen in any MMO for years. It will not get to WoW numbes, because you're missing a large subset of WoW subscribers.. but it will have the largest populations since WoW.
Only the ultra hardcore PvE content players will likely get tired of the game in the first 6 months. The major, casual fanbase will stay. BioWare will release a few changes and new content not too long after release.. withing 3 - 6 months, with a major first year update that will expand the content generously.
Other games will come out, and people will divert from SWTOR for a bit.... but SWTOR will not drop too sharply. The time people have between now and the next launch will have them attached to their characters, and the universe. Those that leave. Will return.
One thing that has not been touched is this small fact:
A sizeable portion of gamers let alone the population do not like Star Wars.
To some of you that may be beyond comprehension, but I wonder how much of an effect this will have on the game's success.
On the other hand, a sizeable portion of SW fans are not MMO players (yet).
Pretty much up to Bio how good they are at marketing and new gamer creation.
Any guesses as to the effect of either question long-term are just that, soothsaying.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
I think it will have a very successful launch, sell millions of boxes, and then slowly shrink over time like as most people come to the realization that the gameplay isn't much different from WoW's after the novelty of fully voiced storyline wears off... and content runs out and leaves people in the same old endgame grind that's been around for years. It's the same fate as Rift, which don't get me wrong, Rift is a solid game, it's just nothing we haven't all seen before.
One thing that has not been touched is this small fact:
A sizeable portion of gamers let alone the population do not like Star Wars.
To some of you that may be beyond comprehension, but I wonder how much of an effect this will have on the game's success.
On the other hand, a sizeable portion of SW fans are not MMO players (yet).
Pretty much up to Bio how good they are at marketing and new gamer creation.
Any guesses as to the effect of either question long-term are just that, soothsaying.
I also have a feeling that once they release in Asia, this type of gameplay will have a huge following there. It will be new and interesting to them and market analysts for that region have stated over and over again that Asian gamers are bursting at the seams for more casual oriented games, that they are tired of the typical Asian grinders.
I think it will have a very successful launch, sell millions of boxes, and then slowly shrink over time like as most people come to the realization that the gameplay isn't much different from WoW's after the novelty of fully voiced storyline wears off... and content runs out and leaves people in the same old endgame grind that's been around for years. It's the same fate as Rift, which don't get me wrong, Rift is a solid game, it's just nothing we haven't all seen before.
Even if that scenario were true, I for one would rather do the same old, same old in a new setting, than go back to WoW or any of the other games that I have played for years. I doubt very seriously that I would be the only person with the same sentiment, if that was how things played out and I do not think it will.
Ok my bets is that it will between 1-3 million players by the end of January . Beyond that its very much a case of what the end games like how polished and addictive it is . If it is the game we hope it is then given it is the largest franchise on the planet we really could see another game on the scale of success of Warcraft in its first couple of years . But you have to remember WoW didn't have 12 million players overnight . When I joined the game it was around 5-6 months old and had something like 3-4 million players . I personally think StarWars wont ever reach the 12 million mark but once its released neither will Warcraft ever again and will most likly see huge losses in subscriptions . (not only WoW though most games will be hit).
We have all been here before only to see games we hoped would be WoWkillers fail badly . There proberbly will never be a definative WoWkiller. Too many people are addicted to it and will only leave kicking and screaming when Blizzard finally closes down the servers in 20 years time . What it will do I think is inflict a mortal blow from which WoW will never recover .
I expect to see massive trolling on the part of Warcraft players as the fear sets in early next year and the realisation that their beloved game is sliding in popularity . What I have to say to them is DONT PANIC WoW will survive and you'll still be able to enjoy it even if there are less servers . Those that remain will be well populated still . Its games like RIFT that have far more to lose which is doing well now but I can see it being decimated when StarWars is released ..
My hope is that strong competition from another game will make Blizzard sit up and take notice and listen . They've had it easy for too long and a virtual monopoly in any market is always bad .
I predict StarWars will settle at around 4-6 million players by the end of its first year . (if its any good)
Editted the OP to elaborate on the lack of a "good success" inbetween "huge" and "mediocre" with the following bit:
Based on feedback received, I agree that the poll is kind of lacking a "good success" option. But that is kind of how I intended the "mediocre success" option.
As in: it can still be a succesfull, highly profitable game, even when there isn't much evidence in a year from now that it will ever be able to directly compete with WOW in sub numbers.
Of course it is naive to think that any mmorpg can reach WOW's sub numbers in just a year, WOW needed the good part of a decade and a lot of porting to other languages and regions for that: The "huge success" option is meant to reflect the option that Swtor is really having the prospect of becoming WOW sized by still growing in sub numbers at a very high rate in a year from now as well as having a very high sub retention.
I agree that "mediocre" is probably a bit badly chosen but I can't edit the poll options anymore.
Keep in mind, vgchartz doesn't keep all preorder statistics - only the retailers that allow them access to that info.
EDIT - I should note that Bioware has explicitly stated that they are limiting pre-orders on purpose. That limit has not been reached yet. Apparently, they are trying to stagger launch to ensure for a smooth operation.
I think in all honesty this game has the potential to be the "next big thing."
Pony, remember I said this so when/if I am right or wrong you can mock me or heap praise upon me.
It's really hard to say for certain without having actually played the game, but from what I have seen and heard and read and what I have seen that I shouldn't have seen...
The only real question I see is:
Are the legions of WoW fans ready/willing to leave WoW behind and migrate to TOR?
This is why it's an important question:
1. Many/most MMO gamers are excited for TOR or are at least curious enough to try it/follow it/read up on it.
2. Many non-MMO gamers are excited for TOR due to being KOTOR/RPG/Bioware/Star Wars fans. (just like pre-WoW)
3. WoW has really stagnated and for the first time is somewhat on the decline, and is 7 years old now.
TOR will be a successful game regardless, but your "average Joe" MMO gamer will likely not subscribe to more then one MMORPG at a time - and I'm considering your "average Joe" MMO gamer to likely be a former/current WoW player.
So for TOR to move from "successful" to "freaking huge" it's going to require them to draw in the WoW crowd and keep their retention long term.
Does it have that power?
Time will tell... The Force is strong with this one...
Do not underestimate the power of the Fantasy, or their predecessors fate will suffer they!
Or something. ... No really. I know a handful who just for the sake of don't play Sci-Fi. If TOR can win them over just because it is so good? In constant movement the future is.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Keep in mind, vgchartz doesn't keep all preorder statistics - only the retailers that allow them access to that info.
I've not preordered because I'm away over Christmas and there will be many like me that will want to get the holidays out the way before we settle down to play it early in the new year . Its already beating Vanilla Warcraft in pre-order numbers then by the sounds of it ?
I have a bad feeling about this (for the inhabitants of Azeroth) lol
Bottom line is, the game is decent. Nothing that makes me go "wow" though. It'll have a ridiculous number of players at start and will lose half of those after 3-6 months. Such is the state of current MMO's.
If people are expecting millions of subs and climbing after those 6 months, it's not going to happen and i don't think it's ever going to happen again.
The game offers a very well made product of the theme park genre, with enough innovations to make it feel very unique on it's own kind.
Add to that all the posibilities the game has for expansions in every direction. Space combat and a bit more sandboxy experience from the top of my mind (that is the 2 more desired by players).
I hate to say it, but I think that no game will ever reach the "11M+" subs WoW had because WoW was the comercial item that put the MMO genre on the map (imho), it was "the first of the new generation of themepark mmo" (i know there were DAoC and EQ and others before it, but you know what I mean). That being said, i do see something above the 5M subs in the future.
on the simple fact that theres more mmo players than ever before in history
Perhaps, but I think that will be a small percentage. In relative terms, if you have 1 million preorders, and 10,000 decide to cancel their preorder based off of a few days of early access gameplay, that is still a considerable success.
Regarding SWTOR at launch, one thing to keep in mind is that it is still only 12 months to launch and they have yet to fully roll out their advertising. No TV slots, etc. So unless, they feel that they can reach their preorder limit well in advance of launch day, we can safely expect their to be an even bigger marketing campaign.
You don't spend a ton of money making a game only to forget your marketing ahead of the biggest shopping season of the year.
TOR, GW2, Archeage............ One of them will do well lol. Im starting to swing more towards archeage as long as its not a f2p cash shop bs game near the release. But I will play TOR, think it will do well. WOW can keep its immature pimple faced pre-teens. Long as the community for TOR are good ill be happy with regular added content of course.
I dont even see how or why WOW is so popular, it sucked and the nerdraged kiddies made for a horrible community.
on the simple fact that theres more mmo players than ever before in history
Perhaps, but I think that will be a small percentage. In relative terms, if you have 1 million preorders, and 10,000 decide to cancel their preorder based off of a few days of early access gameplay, that is still a considerable success.
Regarding SWTOR at launch, one thing to keep in mind is that it is still only 12 months to launch and they have yet to fully roll out their advertising. No TV slots, etc. So unless, they feel that they can reach their preorder limit well in advance of launch day, we can safely expect their to be an even bigger marketing campaign.
You don't spend a ton of money making a game only to forget your marketing ahead of the biggest shopping season of the year.
I bet you intended "weeks"
Anyway, I am curious about their advertising strategy. The more popularity the better I suppose, from their point of view, but it would be kind of painful to see a very expensive, media wide campaign end up in flooded servers with queue's and crashes at launch. (Start up issues like that are hard to rule out entirely). Perhaps they opt to thow money at advertising after launch and try to grow more steadily instead; a bit like WOW grew over the years.
on the simple fact that theres more mmo players than ever before in history
Perhaps, but I think that will be a small percentage. In relative terms, if you have 1 million preorders, and 10,000 decide to cancel their preorder based off of a few days of early access gameplay, that is still a considerable success.
Regarding SWTOR at launch, one thing to keep in mind is that it is still only 12 months to launch and they have yet to fully roll out their advertising. No TV slots, etc. So unless, they feel that they can reach their preorder limit well in advance of launch day, we can safely expect their to be an even bigger marketing campaign.
You don't spend a ton of money making a game only to forget your marketing ahead of the biggest shopping season of the year.
I bet you intended "weeks"
Anyway, I am curious about their advertising strategy. The more popularity the better I suppose, from their point of view, but it would be kind of painful to see a very expensive, media wide campaign end up in flooded servers with queue's and crashes at launch. (Start up issues like that are hard to rule out entirely). Perhaps they opt to thow money at advertising after launch and try to grow more steadily instead; a bit like WOW grew over the years.
Thanks for catching that. Meant weeks.
I don't know about their preorder limit as it coincides with their advertising either. Two ideas:
1. Make it limited to ensure a stable launch, add people as fast as possible after that. This way you generate the envy from players that don't have the game yet, making the game even better in their minds. A viral campaign based off of scarcity I suppose.
2. The whole preorder limit is the marketing campaign, making people believe that their will be scarcity and therefore driving up preorders as much as possible. Preorder limit is never reached because there really wasn't one to begin with.
It will never kill WoW. And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.
SWTOR isn't inovative. It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.
Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.
It will never kill WoW. And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.
SWTOR isn't inovative. It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.
Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.
And which "innovative" game has been so successful in the past?
It will never kill WoW. And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.
SWTOR isn't inovative. It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.
Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.
I really don't believe they are trying to kill WoW. Why would they try and kill the game that they have modeled their game after? I think it has been proven already that you can not kill WoW with a game that plays like WoW. BW and EA are just trying to do what Trion did with Rift. Cash in on the huge success that is WoW. Why be innovative when innovative is risky?
I think the people that are blindly devoted to this game are just as bad as the haters. Different sides oif the same coin. This game is what it is. There is not any kind of ground breaking or innovative thing going on here. Im not saying that is bad .. it just is what it is. If you like Star Wars and like WoW this game is for you.
Comments
I voted Mediocre. I don't think it will have WOW's sucess, but I think it will do better than all others that have come out after it. I think it will at least keep a million subs on average.
In Bioware we trust!
Sorry to burst your bubble, but solo ability is now deemed an essential part of the MMO experience. MMOs still offer plenty of group and raid content, so I'm not sure why you define one that has solo content as not being a "True" MMO. Bioware knows exactly what they're doing and they know exactly what a MMO is and what it entails. These guys have been and currently are professionals in their field and have done nothing to deserve being labeled as clueless.
I have played it and am ecstatic that I preordered the collectors edition!
Playing: varies every day it seems.
My opinion is thus, it will have a steady incline in population... more than we've seen in any MMO for years. It will not get to WoW numbes, because you're missing a large subset of WoW subscribers.. but it will have the largest populations since WoW.
Only the ultra hardcore PvE content players will likely get tired of the game in the first 6 months. The major, casual fanbase will stay. BioWare will release a few changes and new content not too long after release.. withing 3 - 6 months, with a major first year update that will expand the content generously.
Other games will come out, and people will divert from SWTOR for a bit.... but SWTOR will not drop too sharply. The time people have between now and the next launch will have them attached to their characters, and the universe. Those that leave. Will return.
On the other hand, a sizeable portion of SW fans are not MMO players (yet).
Pretty much up to Bio how good they are at marketing and new gamer creation.
Any guesses as to the effect of either question long-term are just that, soothsaying.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
I think it will have a very successful launch, sell millions of boxes, and then slowly shrink over time like as most people come to the realization that the gameplay isn't much different from WoW's after the novelty of fully voiced storyline wears off... and content runs out and leaves people in the same old endgame grind that's been around for years. It's the same fate as Rift, which don't get me wrong, Rift is a solid game, it's just nothing we haven't all seen before.
I also have a feeling that once they release in Asia, this type of gameplay will have a huge following there. It will be new and interesting to them and market analysts for that region have stated over and over again that Asian gamers are bursting at the seams for more casual oriented games, that they are tired of the typical Asian grinders.
Even if that scenario were true, I for one would rather do the same old, same old in a new setting, than go back to WoW or any of the other games that I have played for years. I doubt very seriously that I would be the only person with the same sentiment, if that was how things played out and I do not think it will.
Ok my bets is that it will between 1-3 million players by the end of January . Beyond that its very much a case of what the end games like how polished and addictive it is . If it is the game we hope it is then given it is the largest franchise on the planet we really could see another game on the scale of success of Warcraft in its first couple of years . But you have to remember WoW didn't have 12 million players overnight . When I joined the game it was around 5-6 months old and had something like 3-4 million players . I personally think StarWars wont ever reach the 12 million mark but once its released neither will Warcraft ever again and will most likly see huge losses in subscriptions . (not only WoW though most games will be hit).
We have all been here before only to see games we hoped would be WoWkillers fail badly . There proberbly will never be a definative WoWkiller. Too many people are addicted to it and will only leave kicking and screaming when Blizzard finally closes down the servers in 20 years time . What it will do I think is inflict a mortal blow from which WoW will never recover .
I expect to see massive trolling on the part of Warcraft players as the fear sets in early next year and the realisation that their beloved game is sliding in popularity . What I have to say to them is DONT PANIC WoW will survive and you'll still be able to enjoy it even if there are less servers . Those that remain will be well populated still . Its games like RIFT that have far more to lose which is doing well now but I can see it being decimated when StarWars is released ..
My hope is that strong competition from another game will make Blizzard sit up and take notice and listen . They've had it easy for too long and a virtual monopoly in any market is always bad .
I predict StarWars will settle at around 4-6 million players by the end of its first year . (if its any good)
Editted the OP to elaborate on the lack of a "good success" inbetween "huge" and "mediocre" with the following bit:
Based on feedback received, I agree that the poll is kind of lacking a "good success" option. But that is kind of how I intended the "mediocre success" option.
As in: it can still be a succesfull, highly profitable game, even when there isn't much evidence in a year from now that it will ever be able to directly compete with WOW in sub numbers.
Of course it is naive to think that any mmorpg can reach WOW's sub numbers in just a year, WOW needed the good part of a decade and a lot of porting to other languages and regions for that: The "huge success" option is meant to reflect the option that Swtor is really having the prospect of becoming WOW sized by still growing in sub numbers at a very high rate in a year from now as well as having a very high sub retention.
I agree that "mediocre" is probably a bit badly chosen but I can't edit the poll options anymore.
I hope that explains.
My brand new bloggity blog.
even wow took 4 months to hit 1.5 million
http://www.gamershell.com/companies/blizzard_entertainment/219363.html
EQ2 fan sites
With 12 weeks to go, they are already on a trajectory to get over a million retail sales.
http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders.php
Keep in mind, vgchartz doesn't keep all preorder statistics - only the retailers that allow them access to that info.
EDIT - I should note that Bioware has explicitly stated that they are limiting pre-orders on purpose. That limit has not been reached yet. Apparently, they are trying to stagger launch to ensure for a smooth operation.
Do not underestimate the power of the Fantasy, or their predecessors fate will suffer they!
Or something. ... No really. I know a handful who just for the sake of don't play Sci-Fi. If TOR can win them over just because it is so good? In constant movement the future is.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
I've not preordered because I'm away over Christmas and there will be many like me that will want to get the holidays out the way before we settle down to play it early in the new year . Its already beating Vanilla Warcraft in pre-order numbers then by the sounds of it ?
I have a bad feeling about this (for the inhabitants of Azeroth) lol
there are some people buying the preorders just to try the game
- and will cancel the preorder if they dont like what they see
for Age of Conan, CE was sold out prelaunch
but once people saw the game in early access most of those were cancelled/returned
http://www.funcom.com/news/age_of_conan_collectors_edition_completely_sold_out
I think SWTOR will do better than WOW launch,
on the simple fact that theres more mmo players than ever before in history
EQ2 fan sites
Bottom line is, the game is decent. Nothing that makes me go "wow" though. It'll have a ridiculous number of players at start and will lose half of those after 3-6 months. Such is the state of current MMO's.
If people are expecting millions of subs and climbing after those 6 months, it's not going to happen and i don't think it's ever going to happen again.
I'm a believer of the Huge Success.
The game offers a very well made product of the theme park genre, with enough innovations to make it feel very unique on it's own kind.
Add to that all the posibilities the game has for expansions in every direction. Space combat and a bit more sandboxy experience from the top of my mind (that is the 2 more desired by players).
I hate to say it, but I think that no game will ever reach the "11M+" subs WoW had because WoW was the comercial item that put the MMO genre on the map (imho), it was "the first of the new generation of themepark mmo" (i know there were DAoC and EQ and others before it, but you know what I mean). That being said, i do see something above the 5M subs in the future.
Perhaps, but I think that will be a small percentage. In relative terms, if you have 1 million preorders, and 10,000 decide to cancel their preorder based off of a few days of early access gameplay, that is still a considerable success.
Regarding SWTOR at launch, one thing to keep in mind is that it is still only 12 months to launch and they have yet to fully roll out their advertising. No TV slots, etc. So unless, they feel that they can reach their preorder limit well in advance of launch day, we can safely expect their to be an even bigger marketing campaign.
You don't spend a ton of money making a game only to forget your marketing ahead of the biggest shopping season of the year.
TOR, GW2, Archeage............ One of them will do well lol. Im starting to swing more towards archeage as long as its not a f2p cash shop bs game near the release. But I will play TOR, think it will do well. WOW can keep its immature pimple faced pre-teens. Long as the community for TOR are good ill be happy with regular added content of course.
I dont even see how or why WOW is so popular, it sucked and the nerdraged kiddies made for a horrible community.
I bet you intended "weeks"
Anyway, I am curious about their advertising strategy. The more popularity the better I suppose, from their point of view, but it would be kind of painful to see a very expensive, media wide campaign end up in flooded servers with queue's and crashes at launch. (Start up issues like that are hard to rule out entirely). Perhaps they opt to thow money at advertising after launch and try to grow more steadily instead; a bit like WOW grew over the years.
My brand new bloggity blog.
Thanks for catching that. Meant weeks.
I don't know about their preorder limit as it coincides with their advertising either. Two ideas:
1. Make it limited to ensure a stable launch, add people as fast as possible after that. This way you generate the envy from players that don't have the game yet, making the game even better in their minds. A viral campaign based off of scarcity I suppose.
2. The whole preorder limit is the marketing campaign, making people believe that their will be scarcity and therefore driving up preorders as much as possible. Preorder limit is never reached because there really wasn't one to begin with.
It might be a "little succes" I would say.
It will never kill WoW. And I bet that around ~40%-50% of the peopele will stop playing after 1-3 months.
SWTOR isn't inovative. It's for the "Real fan" of star wars, period. And too many people think of themself beeing real fan of the serie, when they aren't.
Most people talking about SWTOR and "hoping" for a huge succes are more WoW haters than Star wars fan, which will not end-up well for the game. So I would say SWTOR will be a Aion/Rift/Insert high-hype game that aren't that good in end and were overhyped.
And which "innovative" game has been so successful in the past?
It has broken pre-order records so your right, it is over-hyped.
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I really don't believe they are trying to kill WoW. Why would they try and kill the game that they have modeled their game after? I think it has been proven already that you can not kill WoW with a game that plays like WoW. BW and EA are just trying to do what Trion did with Rift. Cash in on the huge success that is WoW. Why be innovative when innovative is risky?
I think the people that are blindly devoted to this game are just as bad as the haters. Different sides oif the same coin. This game is what it is. There is not any kind of ground breaking or innovative thing going on here. Im not saying that is bad .. it just is what it is. If you like Star Wars and like WoW this game is for you.