Final Fantasy XIV at #4? Sorry, but what was that guy smoking?
I'd rather see Mortal Online on the list than FFXIV, no kidding (and no, before you ask, neither game should be on it).
As for the rest, I don't know, I wouldn't put GW2 at #2, not because it won't sell oodles or because it doesn't have a chance to make that spot, but because we have no idea when it will release in 2012. The game isn't in beta yet and I fully expect any developer to run into problems they didn't think of when thousands of people are running around in their world, leading to delays.
GW2 could very well release really late in 2012, which would mean other games having a strong run through the entirety of 2012 are more deserving of that spot.
Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!
I have no idea what games will be the top 3, or 10. I only know what appeals to me. The only one I'm looking for ward to is GW2, and possibly TERA. The others are more wait and see what develops.
I would love to have Everquest 2 on that list, been playing it since 2004, Now only if SoE would get off its Laurels and frikken advertise, it might have a better client base.
GW1 sold a million copies of the original game within 6 months. That was a game by an unknown company, with no IP, making a low budget non-MMO competing against WoW in its prime. GW2 is a true AAA quality B2P MMO that already has a million or two loyal fans just waiting to spread word of mouth.
ArenaNet understands that they need tons of content because games like WoW have tons of expansion content in the game already just from having come out first. They understand that the game needs to be polished and perfect. It's an extremely innovative game and they really are questioning everything about the genre.
Raiding is only one aspect of it. Sure, a lot of people in WoW have raided or do raid, but they also want the best gear. GW2's philosophy is that they don't want people to have to do that. Will people still want to raid if they don't feel they have to? The game will still have very tough 5 man dungeons and events for people who want an optional challenge.
There's still a lot of misinformation about it, I think. Seems like a lot of people dismiss it because they heard one thing, which may or may not have been true. They are doing a lot of things differently than a normal MMO, but in a lot of ways they might be the most casual friendly MMO ever. That's got to count for something.
They are making a point of not even mentioning anything about the game unless it's already in the game and working. Demos have backed this up. People who hype the game too much and expect Jesus are going to be out of luck, but the people who've done the research and know what to expect won't be disappointed at all.
GW2 will be a very successful game. SWTOR and WoW I'm sure will also be successful, maybe even more successful, but GW2 is going to do extremely well. No question.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it."-Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
I would swear that on 2nd place I read GW2 instead of Rift that belong to 2nd place. Mah, going tomorrow to see my physician for new glasses.
I think it's actually a pretty easy decision to make.
If you like being on a gear progression raiding treadmill, play Rift.
If you like your game to be better than Rift in every other conceivable way, play GW2.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it."-Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
Completely disagree with WoW being anywhere close to the top ten, here's a few "why"s
1. it doesn't matter the number of people you have subbed because in the end it's how fun your game is, just because people try to stay together with their familiar clicks of friends does in no way make a game great and right now that is lterally the only GLUE holding WoW together.
After 7 years some are getting bored of WoW, this is natural. Second half of WotLK and first half of cataclysm have been underwhelming, this is true. But the glue holding WoW together is its strong foundation. This is why Rift has such poor retention. the foundation just isnt there. Rift may do a lot of things right, but when 800k-1 million initially by your game and you have 500k or less playing 4 months later despite a free trial (already), then something is being done wrong.
2. When cata was released it was fresh content but since then it's been one repeat of content after another, same models, same bosses, etc etc. no new profession recipes for the standard professions (including my personal favorite that Ghostcrawler went out of his way to kill dead, Engineering), constantly having to relearn the class due to pvp balancing every couple of weeks, faction rep grinding for hardly anything good items, impersonal dungeon finder, complete nerfing of healers to the point there AREN'T any anymore, all contributed to WoW's loss of my account permanently.
This post is almost all incorrect. Engineering did get new recipes in 4.2. Youve obviously never been in firelands if you think its the same as the vanilla raids (thoguh they have recycled too much overall), there have been no major class changes since cataclysm, if the rep grinding doesnt give you great items then why do you care, that just means you dont have to do it. And nerfing of healers? That just makes absolutely no sense and is not remotely true. the only real truth on this list is impersonal dungeon finder, but I only use it for an extra person in guild groups anyway.
3. Most likely what will happen is the Marine Biologist they put in charge along with his Goblin buddies won't see the writing on the wall and will continue to churn out the same old junk and expect the community to just swallow it and keep playing like nothing happened. I hope and pray that the coming of GW2, SWTOR, and a few other choice models will bump WoW's numbers so low that it slaps Ghostcrawler right out of his OCD chair and back to the whales for what he did to destroy the game.
Ghostcrawler didnt destory the game. And it remains to be seen if they adapt to the staleness of their game. they havent had to deal with population loss in their first 6 years, so its time to see how they react to it. But if you think SWToR and GW2 are going to knock WoW off the top spot you are wrong. Arenanet and Bioware would laugh at you for thinking that.
All in all i have yet to see a game that incorporates everything im looking for as a player. Pet taming similar to WoW/PWI combined with a little of AoC's raising of mounts and mounted combat system, GW2/Lotro housing with Lotro/Aion cosmetics, SWTOR storytelling and craft/gathering with humanoid companion system. Why is it it seems that everyone knows what should go into a great mmo but no one is putting together ALL the pieces into one single game?
Because everyone wants different things. You want Lotro housing but after playing eq2 and swg I would almost rather have no housing than lotro's pathetic housing. I dont want a humanoid companion. You list a crafting system no one has seen yet (and the vast majority of crafters preferred SWG to everything else). Everyone's perfect game is different.
"One thing's for sure, ArenaNet and NCsoft have a bonified hit on their hands. "
I think you might mean bona fide ^.^
Interesting list, I agree with most of it apart from Rift being noticeable by its absence. Still, it was pretty spot-on forecast wise in most other ways.
Ihad to laugh about ff14 and apb. Why they were still in the list behond me lol. I had a good laugh at some of the responses asking why lotro was not on the list, and all I can say is its a fare worse game than any on the list.
Oh well the rest of the list was spot on for the most part.
Actually by the end of 2012 Jon Wood will probably be right for the top 4, but the rest is just a mile off the mark. FF XIV will probably be up to scratch by then and will get a console release. SW:TOR is going to be a huge hit for Bioware...there is just so much game there now. GW2, yes, it has massive hype, but it is likely to be a huge hit. I think WoW will have slipped from number one by the end of 2012, but it will still probably have a core fand base and may be free 2 play to keep players while Blizzard move onto Titan.
I'd play a console release with a F2P model. I NEED a console MMO. I hate PC gaming lol. Its more trouble than its worth...consoles are standardized and you tend to know that the software WILL ALWAYS work with its associated hardware.
I disagree with a few things you said, but none so much as:
"But if you think SWToR and GW2 are going to knock WoW off the top spot you are wrong. Arenanet and Bioware would laugh at you for thinking that."
Why would you think that? Arenanet themselves said and in no uncertain terms that they'd beat wow and take the top position. Their boasts were a huge thing for a little bit. Just curious as to why you'd think they'd laugh at soemthing they themselves stated.
The inability to lighten up doesn't make you hardcore.
I disagree with a few things you said, but none so much as:
"But if you think SWToR and GW2 are going to knock WoW off the top spot you are wrong. Arenanet and Bioware would laugh at you for thinking that."
Why would you think that? Arenanet themselves said and in no uncertain terms that they'd beat wow and take the top position. Their boasts were a huge thing for a little bit. Just curious as to why you'd think they'd laugh at soemthing they themselves stated.
Can you link that please where they say that?
According to this video, ArenaNet doesn't consider GW2 to be in competition with WoW at all.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it."-Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
1.ToR at least in the west. People are getting bored of WoW and seeing how ToR is doing some new things unlike WAR RIFT AION ect ect, I think it will stick. 1-2 Million players in by the end of 2012.
2. WoW in the west, For at least another year or two if TOR ends up getting around a million subs I think it will cause a ripple effect in the WoW player base as WoW did when it came out. 1-2 million in the west by the end of 2012
3 eventually 2.GW2, Anet said they would be coming out (or rather I heard it on this forum) an x-pac every six months, I think this is a bad thing to do when trying to retain players. If the first one is any indicator we'll see no real drop off with player bases from other MMOs. .5-1.5 million ACTIVE players by the end of 2012.
456789: does it really matter?
Fact is people (including myself) are leaving WoW and going to play a new MMO and seeing how TOR is right there on the horizon I think it has a better chance then GW2 does when becoming the next top dog in the west.
I disagree with a few things you said, but none so much as:
"But if you think SWToR and GW2 are going to knock WoW off the top spot you are wrong. Arenanet and Bioware would laugh at you for thinking that."
Why would you think that? Arenanet themselves said and in no uncertain terms that they'd beat wow and take the top position. Their boasts were a huge thing for a little bit. Just curious as to why you'd think they'd laugh at soemthing they themselves stated.
Can you link that please where they say that?
According to this video, ArenaNet doesn't consider GW2 to be in competition with WoW at all.
I read it in passing from a link they posted on their facebook page during an interview. I didn't think I'd need the link at the time and closed out. It was a few months ago, I believe it was on their website during an interview, they mentioned that second was for losers and it was mentioned as quite ballsy at the time. It was also in the same interview as a huge feature list. At the moment I don't have time to hunt down a link, but I will look a bit later.
The inability to lighten up doesn't make you hardcore.
I have a problem with "Secret World". It uses the same engine AoC uses and that engine is flawed. It doesn't fully use SMP and needs a super-PC in order to over-power its bad design. Framerates swing all over the place as you stutter through the game ... unless like I said, you have a super PC to play it on or setting the settings to "fugly".
GW2 has already failed. Yes, it may very well be a great game but when hype meets reality, the shock difference will send people packing. Sadly, they will be runing from what is probably a great game.
STO is done. Stick a fork in them.
WoW will reinvent itself again and still reign as the King. We will see what the next Blizz MMO has to offer.
ToR will be the MMO everyone who isn't a WoW fanboi will play. It will do very well and is the only one out of the bunch that could actually take down WoW.
I disagree with a few things you said, but none so much as:
"But if you think SWToR and GW2 are going to knock WoW off the top spot you are wrong. Arenanet and Bioware would laugh at you for thinking that."
Why would you think that? Arenanet themselves said and in no uncertain terms that they'd beat wow and take the top position. Their boasts were a huge thing for a little bit. Just curious as to why you'd think they'd laugh at soemthing they themselves stated.
Can you link that please where they say that?
According to this video, ArenaNet doesn't consider GW2 to be in competition with WoW at all.
I read it in passing from a link they posted on their facebook page during an interview. I didn't think I'd need the link at the time and closed out. It was a few months ago, I believe it was on their website during an interview, they mentioned that second was for losers and it was mentioned as quite ballsy at the time. It was also in the same interview as a huge feature list. At the moment I don't have time to hunt down a link, but I will look a bit later.
Honestly, I think both quotes are right. GW2 being B2P doesn't have to compete with WoW for their subs, and it can also be the highest quality MMO ever produced. If anything, it's refreshing that a company can have its sights set on #1 instead of just being content with the scraps from WoW's table. It doesn't mean the game will be a failure if it isn't the number 1 selling game. I'm sure it will do extremely well based on quality and B2P regardless of how other games sell.
Originally posted by Malkosha
GW2 has already failed. Yes, it may very well be a great game but when hype meets reality, the shock difference will send people packing. Sadly, they will be runing from what is probably a great game.
I can’t say for sure when we’ll release more information on that, only that all the information we release, we try to make sure that what we’re talking about is in the game, it’s working, and it does the things that we want it to do before we come out and we talk about it. I think this day and age MMO gamers have been made sort of jaded by MMO developers, where they hear all these great things that people want to do, and for whatever reason, oftentimes they don’t have time to do all of it. The things that people say they’re going to do, they don’t end up being able to do as well as they wanted to, or they don’t end up being able to do at all, and we don’t want to be the kind of company that does that.
There are things we still haven't seen in demos, but everything we have seen agrees with everything they've ever said. I have faith that the new things they're going to show this week at Gamescom (races, zones, bosses, PVP) will also meet expectations. If people are setting unrealistic expectations for the game, it won't live up to the hype (no game will), but if you've been following it closely and know what to expect, I doubt you'll be disappointed in the final product.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it."-Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
Comments
City of Heroes will become free to play soon, so there's still a chance the superhero MMO genre will have some success in 2012.
Final Fantasy XIV at #4? Sorry, but what was that guy smoking?
I'd rather see Mortal Online on the list than FFXIV, no kidding (and no, before you ask, neither game should be on it).
As for the rest, I don't know, I wouldn't put GW2 at #2, not because it won't sell oodles or because it doesn't have a chance to make that spot, but because we have no idea when it will release in 2012. The game isn't in beta yet and I fully expect any developer to run into problems they didn't think of when thousands of people are running around in their world, leading to delays.
GW2 could very well release really late in 2012, which would mean other games having a strong run through the entirety of 2012 are more deserving of that spot.
Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!
I have no idea what games will be the top 3, or 10. I only know what appeals to me. The only one I'm looking for ward to is GW2, and possibly TERA. The others are more wait and see what develops.
I would love to have Everquest 2 on that list, been playing it since 2004, Now only if SoE would get off its Laurels and frikken advertise, it might have a better client base.
"a quickly changing industry landscape" ??
really?
Well, perhaps the change is the steady stream of F2P's, else it seems rather stagnant to me.
Norden
Lol really?
WoD which won't be released in 2012 which author admits? Eve ? I wonder how much CCP payed for it...
Besides APB , STO? for crying out loud really...
No way any of above will DOMINATE market in 2012.
Imho really totally biased and missed list.
But well it is advertaisment , mmorpg.com lives from this so I should not be shocked.
Rift should be on that list rather than some of those other games ..
"When it comes to GW2 any game is fair game"
GW1 sold a million copies of the original game within 6 months. That was a game by an unknown company, with no IP, making a low budget non-MMO competing against WoW in its prime. GW2 is a true AAA quality B2P MMO that already has a million or two loyal fans just waiting to spread word of mouth.
ArenaNet understands that they need tons of content because games like WoW have tons of expansion content in the game already just from having come out first. They understand that the game needs to be polished and perfect. It's an extremely innovative game and they really are questioning everything about the genre.
Raiding is only one aspect of it. Sure, a lot of people in WoW have raided or do raid, but they also want the best gear. GW2's philosophy is that they don't want people to have to do that. Will people still want to raid if they don't feel they have to? The game will still have very tough 5 man dungeons and events for people who want an optional challenge.
There's still a lot of misinformation about it, I think. Seems like a lot of people dismiss it because they heard one thing, which may or may not have been true. They are doing a lot of things differently than a normal MMO, but in a lot of ways they might be the most casual friendly MMO ever. That's got to count for something.
They are making a point of not even mentioning anything about the game unless it's already in the game and working. Demos have backed this up. People who hype the game too much and expect Jesus are going to be out of luck, but the people who've done the research and know what to expect won't be disappointed at all.
GW2 will be a very successful game. SWTOR and WoW I'm sure will also be successful, maybe even more successful, but GW2 is going to do extremely well. No question.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it." -Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
I would swear that on 2nd place I read GW2 instead of Rift that belong to 2nd place. Mah, going tomorrow to see my physician for new glasses.
But on the other hand ... more plausible explanation would be guy has smoked something very bad.
I think it's actually a pretty easy decision to make.
If you like being on a gear progression raiding treadmill, play Rift.
If you like your game to be better than Rift in every other conceivable way, play GW2.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it." -Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
And if you like the gear progression raiding treadmill, WoW does it better than Rift
"One thing's for sure, ArenaNet and NCsoft have a bonified hit on their hands. "
I think you might mean bona fide ^.^
Interesting list, I agree with most of it apart from Rift being noticeable by its absence. Still, it was pretty spot-on forecast wise in most other ways.
Ihad to laugh about ff14 and apb. Why they were still in the list behond me lol. I had a good laugh at some of the responses asking why lotro was not on the list, and all I can say is its a fare worse game than any on the list.
Oh well the rest of the list was spot on for the most part.
I'd play a console release with a F2P model. I NEED a console MMO. I hate PC gaming lol. Its more trouble than its worth...consoles are standardized and you tend to know that the software WILL ALWAYS work with its associated hardware.
I disagree with a few things you said, but none so much as:
"But if you think SWToR and GW2 are going to knock WoW off the top spot you are wrong. Arenanet and Bioware would laugh at you for thinking that."
Why would you think that? Arenanet themselves said and in no uncertain terms that they'd beat wow and take the top position. Their boasts were a huge thing for a little bit. Just curious as to why you'd think they'd laugh at soemthing they themselves stated.
The inability to lighten up doesn't make you hardcore.
Something*
Can't edit to fix the punctuation errors.
The inability to lighten up doesn't make you hardcore.
Can you link that please where they say that?
According to this video, ArenaNet doesn't consider GW2 to be in competition with WoW at all.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_profilepage&v=6xoKixTkm1I#t=80s
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it." -Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007
Player Base wise:
1.ToR at least in the west. People are getting bored of WoW and seeing how ToR is doing some new things unlike WAR RIFT AION ect ect, I think it will stick. 1-2 Million players in by the end of 2012.
2. WoW in the west, For at least another year or two if TOR ends up getting around a million subs I think it will cause a ripple effect in the WoW player base as WoW did when it came out. 1-2 million in the west by the end of 2012
3 eventually 2.GW2, Anet said they would be coming out (or rather I heard it on this forum) an x-pac every six months, I think this is a bad thing to do when trying to retain players. If the first one is any indicator we'll see no real drop off with player bases from other MMOs. .5-1.5 million ACTIVE players by the end of 2012.
456789: does it really matter?
Fact is people (including myself) are leaving WoW and going to play a new MMO and seeing how TOR is right there on the horizon I think it has a better chance then GW2 does when becoming the next top dog in the west.
I read it in passing from a link they posted on their facebook page during an interview. I didn't think I'd need the link at the time and closed out. It was a few months ago, I believe it was on their website during an interview, they mentioned that second was for losers and it was mentioned as quite ballsy at the time. It was also in the same interview as a huge feature list. At the moment I don't have time to hunt down a link, but I will look a bit later.
The inability to lighten up doesn't make you hardcore.
1. wow
2. tor
3. tera
4. gw2
5. eve
6. secret world
7. archage
8. aion
9. eq2
10. aoc
I have a problem with "Secret World". It uses the same engine AoC uses and that engine is flawed. It doesn't fully use SMP and needs a super-PC in order to over-power its bad design. Framerates swing all over the place as you stutter through the game ... unless like I said, you have a super PC to play it on or setting the settings to "fugly".
GW2 has already failed. Yes, it may very well be a great game but when hype meets reality, the shock difference will send people packing. Sadly, they will be runing from what is probably a great game.
STO is done. Stick a fork in them.
WoW will reinvent itself again and still reign as the King. We will see what the next Blizz MMO has to offer.
ToR will be the MMO everyone who isn't a WoW fanboi will play. It will do very well and is the only one out of the bunch that could actually take down WoW.
Just my opinion of course ....
1. archage
2. -
3. -
4. -
5. -
6. -
7. -
8. -
9. -
10. shadowbane
I think I found it. http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-03-23-guild-wars-2-hands-on
Honestly, I think both quotes are right. GW2 being B2P doesn't have to compete with WoW for their subs, and it can also be the highest quality MMO ever produced. If anything, it's refreshing that a company can have its sights set on #1 instead of just being content with the scraps from WoW's table. It doesn't mean the game will be a failure if it isn't the number 1 selling game. I'm sure it will do extremely well based on quality and B2P regardless of how other games sell.
Here's a quote from Colin Johanson, lead content designer for GW2, in an interview with MMORPG.com
I can’t say for sure when we’ll release more information on that, only that all the information we release, we try to make sure that what we’re talking about is in the game, it’s working, and it does the things that we want it to do before we come out and we talk about it. I think this day and age MMO gamers have been made sort of jaded by MMO developers, where they hear all these great things that people want to do, and for whatever reason, oftentimes they don’t have time to do all of it. The things that people say they’re going to do, they don’t end up being able to do as well as they wanted to, or they don’t end up being able to do at all, and we don’t want to be the kind of company that does that.
There are things we still haven't seen in demos, but everything we have seen agrees with everything they've ever said. I have faith that the new things they're going to show this week at Gamescom (races, zones, bosses, PVP) will also meet expectations. If people are setting unrealistic expectations for the game, it won't live up to the hype (no game will), but if you've been following it closely and know what to expect, I doubt you'll be disappointed in the final product.
"Gamers will no longer buy the argument that every MMO requires a subscription fee to offset server and bandwidth costs. It's not true you know it, and they know it." -Jeff Strain, co-founder of ArenaNet, 2007