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Originally posted by blueturtle13 Originally posted by Wrender Originally posted by Baleout Originally posted by 4getting2009 The issue is...There wil be drop off just like every other mmo. There are too many other AAA MMOs being released too soon. Rift does not do anything different enough for it to compete in a world with WOW, GW2, and TOR. It just doesn't. It's going to be a foot note, just like AoC, WAR, LOTRO, DDO, Vanguard, Tabula Rasa, CoX, CO, DCUO, FXIV, and AION.
Just wait we will be saying the same about GW2 and TOR after a couple of months being played , people are not just hapy with any games coming out right now and neither of those 2 games will change it.
Lose the WoW mindset ..... As long as this keeps up nobody is gonna be happy with any new MMO. Especially one that is original and innovative. WoW has brainwashed the masses to a certain defined way of playing. I have said it before and will say again, WoW has ruined the fun factor for many MMO players. Especially the people whose first MMO was WoW.
The same thing could be said for those of us who started gaming in MMO's long before WOW. The same inability to be happy with any other mmo is also an issue for UO vets or EQ vets or AC vets or..............Using WOW as the mmo scapegoat is getting a bit too predictable and over used.
Alot of people thought WoW was in a world that did not compete with EQ or AC. Well, WoW punched those 2 in the nuts then pissed on them. I'm sorry but if anything is even going to be close to WoW it will be another Clone.
EQ,AC,UO,WoW those are the type of games that have dominated the market sense MMOs went 3D they just work. Sandbox games don't they flop on there face not because the design of them game was bad, the players make sandbox games bad.
Originally posted by MMO.Maverick I myself don't even dislike sandbox MMO's, I like all kinds of MMORPG's, but I definitely despise the bitter, spiteful and downright hateful mentality a disgruntled and grumpy number of the sandbox crowd is showing continuously on these forums. It's like when you're at party or on a trip and there's this person who can do nothing but complain and whine about everything that he/she can complain about. After a while you start to wish you could drop something strong in their drinks so they'll drop as a log firm asleep or will be as high as a kite and no grinch anymore.
Maverick you are capable of intelligent posting therefore you should not continue to insult yourself by sticking to labelling people who said that "X will fail or X is failing" as haters. In the end you are the one coming off as bitter and spiteful.
The sandbox crowd reacts the same to sandbox games. Most of the people claiming Mortal would fail or Darkfall was going to be a mess or that Earthrise would be a joke were not Themepark Fans hating on the latest Sandbox, they were people who have more than 10 braincells and have spent 4 or more years as MMO users to have a good grasp of what is what.
All these people coming back with "In YOUR opinion" (which is the stupidest thing i see on forums btw) and "The game doesn't suit your playstyle so you claim it will fail" responces are incapable of rational thought. With that reasoning since i am a sandbox lover i am incapable of being able to deduce if a certain Themepark game will be successful or not.... where's the logic in that?
Because sandbox fans or vice versa themepark fans are not MMO players and couldn't possibly make negative predictions about an MMO without some negative hater agenda behind them.
The reality is very simple. The MMO's we've been getting since 2007 can be classified as MEDIOCRE at best when compared to the successful ones. The Subs are there to show it. It's natural that people are becoming more capable of spotting mediocre or bad games or design mistakes in unreleased games and calling them for what they are.
Defiantly a population drop.. The server i play on is still PACKED, but its not shoulder to shoulder like it was 2 weeks ago lol.. Which is good for me as i was tired of waiting in que's to get in on fri+sat nights, and the population is still healthy enough to be able to find people for instances and get quick que's for war fronts.. I'am also in probably the largest guild on Braircliff (100+ ACTIVE people) so it never feels empty..
I'd say a 20% decrease in population isn't far off though.
Currently Playing:Rift + Starcraft II + Gears Of War 3 Beta
I only recently started playing Rift but everytime a rift opens, I get lots of help. The game feels very populated for me and I'm only level 12 now.
Well, it's curious that no one pointed out that, according to the OP's XFire, WoW dropped for the first time in many many months from 1st to 2nd place http://www.xfire.com/games/wow/World_of_Warcraft/
Call of Duty 4 is now on top. It seems that it isnt Rift the one loosing the highes number of ppl after all =P
Originally posted by RajCaj Originally posted by kingtommyboy Originally posted by Palebane I can't help but wonder how many subs dropped after the first month of WoW. Thankfully we were not all so obsessed by sub numbers back then.
I'm not sure if wow ever had a drop in sub numbers And indeed, this obsession for sub numbers makes no sense at all!
WOW didn't have a simillar drop as these other games because WOW was first to market with a super polished linear themepark ride w/ no height limit. Come one, come all....something for everyone type of mold that has become the standard all the major publishers are reaching for.
The reason games like Warhammer, Aion, and Rift (all excellent games by the way) have the huge drop in subs is because its the same trick pony that you've already invested countless hours and dollars already in WOW. After the newness of the graphics and the thinly vieled gimmicks wear off......you wonder why your running another kill quest (for the 1000th time) to get this toon to lvl 40, when you could just log in your level capped character in WOW and jump right into endgame with all your pals you made over the last several years.
The reason there is such an obssession with sub numbers now is because Electronic Arts, NCSoft, BioWare, Sony, and Square Enix are looking at the sub numbers. They haven't touched a single sandobx MMO game in the last 5+ years because they have been creating games to go after that big ole 12,000,000 subscriber pie.
Before WOW, I think Ever Quest topped out at 1 million subs. Before that, Ultima Online held the Guiness Book of World Records title for most number of subs for a MMORPG at 200,000. No one was looking at the MMORPG genere at that time....or paying attention to subs.
Now that Blizzard has proved that you can tap into a larger section of the overall gamer market (casual gamers) and make away like bandits with this monthly fee + box sale pricing model.....all the AAA Publishers have stuck their big toe in the mix, and most have failed.
Yes because NCSoft clearly is a prime example of a company that is just "trying to chase after WoWs success". The company that actually brought, nearly half of these Millions of gamers, nowadays copy cats like WoW are constantly bragging about today, into the MMORPG genre in first place, either because NCSofts games have BEEN copied by Eastern and even some western publisher for +10 years or did draw them in themself with their major gametitles before WoW even existed. They are the least MMO publisher and developer on this planet, who has the need to "run after WoWs success" or even "copy WoWs ideas" because they are both dwarfing WoW in the East financially with their individual MMO title and WoW hardly could teach them anything new anymore aside from some marketing schemes.
Within the past 2 majorly successfull years of Aion NCSoft only once officially bragged about their sales in public PR, the boxsales of their western release. And thats only happend for the gamer who have been eager to know it solely, because WoW and no one else brought in all the subscribernumbers (no matter how) PR hype. All other known data has been eagerly gatherd by players, from subsidary sources or hidding inside shareholder reports..
No matter what ignorant and closeminded WoW fanbots frequently repeat to keep up the "All devs just try to clone WoW because that makes my game sound greater than it is!!!"-myth: Aion never was a copy, nor a clone attempt of WoW and would have been the pretty much the same game without WoW (nothing hard to achieve as WoW fans allways attempt to make it appear, because WoW just copied from the spectrum games that Aion also had its actual roots in or even personal experience from), except for some cosmetical UI and controll changes and more emphasis on contents like loredriven content demanded by the player of more important growing offshore target audiences like the West and for no other reason than the demand of it to be implemented, which isnt solely related to WoW, but on the history of western gamer used to games like EQ or AC.
Originally posted by Sukiyaki Originally posted by RajCaj Originally posted by kingtommyboy Originally posted by Palebane I can't help but wonder how many subs dropped after the first month of WoW. Thankfully we were not all so obsessed by sub numbers back then.
As a westerner I could give a crap about NCSoft. In all honesty, all competitors learn from one another and use there wares. This is evident within activision-blizzard and ncsoft.
I have been playing half as much since the 1.1 patch. It had a lot of senseless and enthusiasm crushing changes.
Originally posted by Blaad I have been playing half as much since the 1.1 patch. It had a lot of senseless and enthusiasm crushing changes.
Apparently, I just tried to read a thread created with a title similar to this...yet it was deleted. Whats been changed?
Originally posted by kingtommyboy So what, this happens with almost every mmo. I'm sure this game will stay were it is now.
No. Games that succeed do not lose subs. They gain subs. From the looks of things my 6 month prediction for Rift to die may end up being sooner. They just adjusted how the servers show up on the login screen. If they kept it the same way as launch it would show over half their servers as "low" population.
The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Well, as a point of note, it's 2:30 am on a Thursday mornign (or in my mind still wednesday night) and every server is medium except for one pvp server which is high.
doesn't feel unpopulated to me.
i will say that there are some areas that are set up in such a way that they are just a pain in the nect to get around. That "grand canyon" looking area on the defiant side just does't feel right.
Originally posted by -Zeno- Originally posted by kingtommyboy So what, this happens with almost every mmo. I'm sure this game will stay were it is now.
LOTRO - Lost subs and even laid off workers within it's first year. Sold only 172k copies in it's first QUARTER (lol)
AION - Shut down and merged servers
Age of Conan and Warhammer Online - Both bleed subs like crazy, yet are still going.
All still here to this day, some even after 4+ years. Calling Rift dead after 6 months, especially for a game more fleshed out, stable and polished than the other games listed were at launch is... silly.
No MMO has EVER gained subs after launch...heck even WoW's sales in it's first 10 weeks kept going DOWN (check the stats here...(http://simple-n-complex.blogspot.com/2011/04/spectating-riftis-that-decline-in-your.html). Any game needs time to grow and flourish. Development and word of mouth as well as good reviews all help.
Rift is not dead and will not be dead for a long time.
Originally posted by ranknvile Originally posted by -Zeno- Originally posted by kingtommyboy So what, this happens with almost every mmo. I'm sure this game will stay were it is now.
WoW certainly gained subs following release. EVE online went from 35k, to what it is now. In fact there's quite a few MMOs that have seen increased subs, just not those of recent release.
Rift however is far from dead. Its seen a fall off, as one would expect, but it still extremely healthy and the drop off hasn't been that great. There are however a lot of bored level 50s already, and many who don't like the direction Trion seem to be taking it.
Originally posted by ranknvile LOTRO - Lost subs and even laid off workers within it's first year. Sold only 172k copies in it's first QUARTER (lol) AION - Shut down and merged servers Age of Conan and Warhammer Online - Both bleed subs like crazy, yet are still going. All still here to this day, some even after 4+ years. Calling Rift dead after 6 months, especially for a game more fleshed out, stable and polished than the other games listed were at launch is... silly. No MMO has EVER gained subs after launch...heck even WoW's sales in it's first 10 weeks kept going DOWN (check the stats here...(http://simple-n-complex.blogspot.com/2011/04/spectating-riftis-that-decline-in-your.html). Any game needs time to grow and flourish. Development and word of mouth as well as good reviews all help. Rift is not dead and will not be dead for a long time.
You should really checkout a more reputable source. LOTRO gained subs from 2007 - 2009, but did not have the huge box sale numbers the first month.
Looking at the different games all games with huge box sales the first month experience considerable losses to their population. I think Rift has a better chance to succed than than AoC, War, and Aion, but the game doesn't have anything to hook players long term.
Odd. So basicly what you are saying is that almost all MMO's have failed. Its fairly public information on what the industry retention rate is. As well as looking around at all the MMO's that are live *dramatic pause* just goes back to your claiming that almost all MMO's have failed... Yet they somehow have been around for years making money.
quote repeated "Games that succeed do not lose subs." response: yes they do.
My Rift account had the big ol' "cancel" button pushed. That doesn't mean the game failed. They had more sales than they ever expected and what subscribers they actually retain... will more than likely fit into their company prediction of expected subscribers.
What does that mean? success.
ironic I know.
most mmo's HAVE failed. at least the modern ones not the ones spawning into a virgin market.
(I dont mean a bazaar where they sell virgins).
Originally posted by grapevine Originally posted by ranknvile Originally posted by -Zeno- Originally posted by kingtommyboy So what, this happens with almost every mmo. I'm sure this game will stay were it is now.
I think you misunderstand. Each game would have initial losses as time went on. Happened to all MMO's. Players either did not like the game immediately or did not want to sub. As time progressed they eventually sold BIG (WoW) or kept falling over (WAR). But, saying within the first 30 days they are "losing" subs either based on sales or a tracking service is not going to give all the data.
What I am saying is using the first 30 days to call the death of a game because servers have lightened their load is ludicrous is all.
Now, if we come back in 6 months and the servers have been merged down to 6-12 shards and the game is selling in bargain bins for 9.99...then maybe you can say something.
Of course, LOTRO, AoC and other MMO's have also done this, and still run.
Originally posted by ranknvile Originally posted by grapevine Originally posted by ranknvile
As a general rule that is correct, at least for recent releases. A 30 day drop off is to be expected, as are 60 and 90 day ones. It usually between 40 - 60% over three months, then they equalise or nose dive. However don't confuse turn around with drop off. Not all MMOs have seen declining subs, at least short term. Many have however seen a high turn over of players.
Rift at this stage seems to be doing better than most. **EDIT TO ADD** Long term I don't think it will however do well. GW2 and SW:TOR are going to impact the market "big time", even if for a short while. With many seeing Rift as little more than a filler MMO. Rift is also little different from WoW, in fact I'd go as far as saying it a dumping ground for those that struggled with Cataclysm (as Rift is easier), or exhausted its content. Blizzard could kill Rift's popularity with a single content patch.
Well, at least we can get one thing out of the way.
Rift will never match WoW numbers...and I expect NO MMO ever will.
If players can get over that intital hump and live with that fact, they might actually enjoy the game instead of armchair analyzing the data to see if the next big MMO is a failure.
WoW and EQ both gained subs the 2nd month, they did not have a falling off period. Both games suffered heavily in the 1st month from not having enough servers or strong enough infrastructure, basically they couldn't meet the demand there was for the game which is why with time they only increased population.
They are also the only two games that have substantially grown the genre population so far, though I expect TOR will even though I doubt it will be a very good game.
Originally posted by Lille7 So it basicly follows the trend of every MMO, no surprise there. Hopefully they will keep enough players to keep going.
This is the most reasonable, sensible post in this thread.
Coming with WoW as some kind of standard to compare with is just flawed reasoning. They just got everything right and got lucky timing, kinda like Microsoft did with Windows. Not gonna happen again for next 10-20 years.
GW2 or TOR will fail same as Rift does if You'll compare them with WoW and just like Rift they will succeed if You ignore WoW and look at other MMO. It's just hype atm, in reality we'll see queues, bugs, unbalanced classes and lots of rage and drop in subs after 30 free days or in case of GW2 after doing all content which will be more or less same time.
Originally posted by Yamota XFire shows a 20% drop of played hours compared to the peak one month ago. So as predicted this latest "great" game is starting to lose ground. How much you wanna bet that by next month it will be at 50% of peak?
I'm sure the overall population is still very healthy, but they need to merge servers and allow character transfers NOW. They added a ton of servers after launch to accommodate the initial rush of players. But now that that has dropped off, they need to bring down the number of servers so there aren't so many people stuck on desolate servers faced with re-rolling on more populated servers.
Originally posted by boojiboy Originally posted by Yamota XFire shows a 20% drop of played hours compared to the peak one month ago. So as predicted this latest "great" game is starting to lose ground. How much you wanna bet that by next month it will be at 50% of peak?
Perhaps. But as I said in another thread, Last "night" or rather 'early morning' at 2:30 am all the servers were at medium except for one pvp server which was full.
I just got off of playing at 2pm during a week day and was pretty much doing rifts with a small group. Finished three up solo and then decided to break for lunch.
The game seems pretty healthy to me. There are a few areas that don't seem conducive to healthy activity such as that grand canyon looking area on the defiant side. I had a pretty large lull of activity there for several reasons. but I just got past that and thigns have picked up.