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(2 Steps Guide) How to Predict the Max Possible Subscription Numbers for upcoming MMO
MMOExposed
Member RarePosts: 7,387
If you remember, I made a thread discussing the niche groups of the MMORPG genre.
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/282112/page/1
Well. Here is how to predict the Max Possible Subs Numbers a upcoming MMO can get, before it even comes out.
1) Start at WoW's total Subs (11.5 Million right now)
2) Divide by 2 for each niche group the game fits in, listed on the link above.
3) End Result is the max possible subs that game will have. (Things such as Bugs and Fail Hype, lower it down even feather, but these steps are for predicting the max Possible Sub numbers.)
Try it
Note: Charts change, as WoW Numbers rise each year. Which is why first step is important.
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
Comments
It doesn't work.
Xsyon only has one competitior; Wurm Online, and if you divide 11.5 mil by 4 you get a number that Xsyon is never going to see.
Writer / Musician / Game Designer
Now Playing: Skyrim, Wurm Online, Tropico 4
Waiting On: GW2, TSW, Archeage, The Rapture
Most games don't break the 1mil mark. Very few games that aren't WoW, actually have.
So, by this inaccurate thread, 99% of the MMOs on the market fit at least 12 of your 15 niche groups, just by that tiny bit of info alone.
A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15.
Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.
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I think he mean 11.5/(2^15).
you start at 11.5m and keep dividing by 2 15 times
yes this is what I meant.
Try it. It works
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
Writer / Musician / Game Designer
Now Playing: Skyrim, Wurm Online, Tropico 4
Waiting On: GW2, TSW, Archeage, The Rapture
Heh. I'm sorry, I'm usually using tea leaves and weather patterns to predict the max sub numbers.
That is, whenever my crystal ball is still out of juice; I usually need to make a trip to Hogwarts to recharge it.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.
w/e not the point.
Cyphers and twrule hit the nail on the head.
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LOL ok so what happens to all the people not playing WoW (which has no where near 11.5 million players anymore) and people simply not playing MMOs until the new one they want is out?
Yeah great formula.
oh really?
/roll eyes jk lol
But still it works 99% of the time.
Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
Hi
Hi
Hi
Blizzard last Sub Number statement was when they were dicussion the issues they having in China.
They stated WoW only grew by a small percentage compared to TBC because of the Prevention of WoTLK X-pac in China.
(Guess you didnt know, but China players still can play TBC from their server)
Blizzard stated that WoW Subs are 11.5 Million in Late 2009
So Cya, whine elsewhere
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
hmm how do your formula fit with facebook games
LOL you didnt mention anything about the other part of my comment because you know your a troll WoW fanboy.
Late 2009 isnt 2010. That 11.5 mil figure is way old dude. You link something that says otherwise.
why do we have to do the work. You start out the thread.
Take some of the most popular MMO on the market now and show us if your formula is accurate.
And tell us your perdiction on upcoming MMO's because I surely won't take my time to prove how inaccurate your sily formula is.
Also, where's the proof for this algorithm? Any mathematical induction done? What about edge cases? Does this follow more from Topus Theory or it doesn't violate Godel's Incompleteness Theorem?
Something tells me you haven't done the amount of necessary statistical testing to back up that claim.
There's no way that this formula could act as a decent prediction model at all. There are too many variables unaccounted for, and the assumptions it's based on are convoluted at best. How would you even know if the results were accurate, nevermind that one of your factors (the niche one) is based on opinion?
Try it if you dont believe it.
Use a current game like DF or MO
something like that.
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
Actually the formula works quite well. It's the part where he says "max" possible subscription number.
the important words is "max". The reality is the actual subscriber number usually come out much lower than the formula outcome.
For example the formula might come out with a max subscription number of 700k, when all the games that fit into that subgeneral dont' break 300k. The main point is the upper bound is so high so offcourse it's not breakable.
Social games dont' fit the catergory though, games like club penguins or second life break that formula.
You're missing the point. I don't need to try it because it makes no sense.
isnt that 3 steps?
and there will be a new MMO that beats WoW, Its not going to rain king forever. So ur math is flawed by having people base there numbers off WoW.
That's kinda dumb, because every game is bound to come *under* that projection.
Writer / Musician / Game Designer
Now Playing: Skyrim, Wurm Online, Tropico 4
Waiting On: GW2, TSW, Archeage, The Rapture
Yes, sometimes I even use the crystal ball to hit nails into the wall when I can't find the hammer. It's a very sturdy crystal ball.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Good point. Actually I think that Farmville should be used as point of reference since that MMO game has the most players.
Additional questions could be added like
'Does the game have leveling progression?' and
'Is the endgame focused upon endless raiding and gear grinding?'
But, I'm not the OP, so I will leave it up to him what fuzzy logic and base should be used for the golden formula.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Well thats my point.
WoW is the only game that doesnt fit these niche groups, yet is also happen to be the only MMO with 11.5 Million subs
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
Yeah, because WoW doesn't have loading screens between zones and doesn't force you to group to get any sort of decent gear in the endgame. (WoW is an endgame centric game)
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