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EA to report Q4 figures on May 12th. What's your guess on Sub numbers in WAR ?

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Comments

  • RaztorRaztor rfsfPosts: 670Member
    Originally posted by Zorndorf


    Look at the graphics
    http://www.xfire.com/games/who/Warhammer_Online_Age_of_Reckoning/
    Now before rolling in that the 200.000 western Xfire players don't represent anything. .... it is online and a service that tracks 24/24 hours.
    ---------------
    Now the graph itself is NOT the interesting thing, it is the numbers of PEOPLE logged in using Xfire. At the end of Sep it was between 12K (week) and 15 K (weekend). We NOW know this stood for 750K to 800K players in War (source: EA)
    At Christmas this figure was 5.5K to 6K. We NOW know this stood for 300K "subscriptions" (counting in the new copies sold at XMas).
    NOW we see 3K to 3.3K of players. As the Xfire figures are rather trustworthy in having a consistent measure IF there isn't an XFire promotion going on (like the AOC promotion between 1 - 16 April)...
    It shows that NOW the number of total players would be in the order of 200K players at the most.
    ------------------
    So a prediction: EA will be talking of "number of accounts/players" again - including the TRIAL accounts of March as they can't afford to talk about 200K subscriptions/active players. Another press release stating 40% loss in subscriptions would be devestating to their game.
    ----------->
     As long as Xfire itself doesn't use "promotions", the interaction between games is also rather accurate (as 200.000 XFire players is indeed a large base). Last year it was reported LotrO had 175K subs. It is exactly in the same order as War right now. Also the ratio of players between Wow and War is at a 30/1 ratio right now. If Wow is about 5 million western subs, just divide 5 million by 30 ... and you get again the same 170K players.

    So Xfire is rather accurate to see the number of players in an online game.

     

    Nice and clear post. Pretty much sums what I was going to say. I'd be highly surprised if it's over the 180k mark in US/Europe. With the release of the Korean and Rusian versions it'll be over 200k so I guess that's the numbers EA will use.

  • SortranSortran Kansas City, MOPosts: 148Member
    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Sortran


    I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.



     

    you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.



     

    Pheace beat me to the rebuttal. Nice try though.  Numbers can be played many ways and still be true. So apparently you know very little on what is classified as accurate number reporting on the reports that go out to stockholders.

    Playing: Not much actively.
    Games played: to many to list, been playing MMO's since 2001
    --------------------------

  • KordeshKordesh P, NJPosts: 1,715Member
    Originally posted by Sortran

    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Sortran


    I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.



     

    you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.



     

    Pheace beat me to the rebuttal. Nice try though.  Numbers can be played many ways and still be true. So apparently you know very little on what is classified as accurate number reporting on the reports that go out to stockholders.

    Oh please. Since when have companies been ethical about anything in the past several decades? Including trial accounts and other things to fluff the numbers is EXACTLY what they would do. If they were pressed for specifics they would obviously need to give them up, but you can be damn sure they're going to try and make things look as rosey as possible. 

    Bans a perma, but so are sigs in necro posts.

    EAT ME MMORPG.com!

  • merruamerrua limerickPosts: 12Member

     

    Its a pity about War, I liked somethings about the game, but got bored before I finished the free month when you buy the game.

    What some people have said might be right, when they doubled the xps needed to level they killed it a bit. If my level 16 character was level 32 I might have been still interested for the last week. 

     

  • srsh12345srsh12345 New York, NYPosts: 61Member

    I honestly don't see EA publishing this number without fudging it a little.  

     

    Like counting people who have unsubcribed but their acc't hasn't expired, counting trial accounts, etc.  However, I don't fault them because I believe all MMO do this.  It's in every MMO best interest to show higher numbers so that potential new players don't feel like they're joining a dying game.

     

    My guess is that there's 200-250,000 active players.  I believe they'll report close to 450,000

  • Tyvolus1Tyvolus1 Charlotte, NCPosts: 815Member
    Originally posted by Pheace

    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Sortran


    I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.



     

    you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

     

    I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.

     

    Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.

     

    In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".

     

    Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.

    IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC.  I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can.  This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it.  And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint.  Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them.  They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.

     

  • oddjobs74oddjobs74 tampa, FLPosts: 526Member
    Originally posted by popinjay


     

    Originally posted by Deewe
     
    OP, really who cares?



     

     

    At last count?

     



    406 people, including you.

     



     

    pwned!

  • PheacePheace LeidenPosts: 2,408Member
    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Pheace

    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Sortran


    I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.



     

    you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

     

    I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.

     

    Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.

     

    In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".

     

    Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.

    IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC.  I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can.  This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it.  And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint.  Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them.  They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.

     

     

    Haha, that completely went over your head didn't it? Do you need someone to translate what I said to you? Did you understand a single word I said? I didn't say they lied, I said they didn't need to. Reread what I said because you obviously didn't grasp it at all, which just makes yourself look like a fool for building an argument on something I didn't say :)  

     

    Love your baseless defensive rant though, very true to form, attack the messenger on something he didn't say rather than argue the point he did  ;)

    image

  • DistasteDistaste Lancaster, PAPosts: 667Member

    I doubt they will even release numbers. I mean Mark didn't even sound sure they would make the earnings call when they announced 300k so now with them being lower I doubt they will announce them. Especially since SWTOR is an MMO which is a major investment. Just because the one MMO didn't do well doesn't mean SWTOR won't so no point in bringing negativity to the MMO portion of quarter.

    Just so people get their facts straight.



    Dec 31st- 300k Subs

    March 11th- 63 servers were shutdown

    Google Trends and Xfire have had Warhammer Online on a downward trend the entire time with only small bursts of increased activity.

    Mythic has also given out 10 day free trials to old and new players to try and generate subs. They have also added exclusive refer a friend items like the Manticore and gryphon mounts.

    The Russian version only has 2 servers.

     

    All signs point to not doing well. So it would be a million to one shot for them to be over 300k subs. Heck most people thought the game was sub 100k in Feb. My bet is on 150k-200k just by using the difference of players on Xfire at Xmas and now. Sure xfire isn't that reliable but we will see.

  • PheacePheace LeidenPosts: 2,408Member

    One thing I've noticed about MJ talking about EA quarter results and WAR's sub numbers. MJ himself seems to have squat all to do with whether they are in there or not. It's basically up to EA. To be honest, if they had actually worried about the impact of sub numbers on games I don't think they would have posted last quarters sub numbers to begin with. Just doesn't seem to matter much to EA.

     

     

    image

  • TheHavokTheHavok San Jose, CAPosts: 2,398Member Uncommon

    Im going to say, around 200k.  The game in dwindling...not expanding, I think thats clear to all the MMORPG community.  I wont even get into the reasons why.

    Warhammer: A needed success to show our mmorpg community that....well...our community maybe dying?  LOL okay, MJ....time for bedtime.

  • spaceno37spaceno37 Houston, TXPosts: 3Member

    I was one of those 10 free trail accounts for April.  I didn't make it 10 days.

    The game just wasn't fun.  Sorry, graphics were only ok for me.  Game play was laggy/jerky (Like using arrows).  While they gave a lot of information it just seemed overload somewhat.

    I played DoAC, Everquest I&II, WOW, Eve Online, and others.  

     

    There just seemed to be something missing.  No fear factor of dying (got to level 9 didn't die). 

     

    Spaceno

  • LrdHadesLrdHades atlanta, GAPosts: 163Member

    There's a few things you have to keep in mind.

     

    1. War expanding worldwide

    The released in some new regions, so Q1 may see a world wide subscriber uptick. So it may not be until Q2 or later before we see those numbers wash out. This game had over a 50% churn rate, so most people who pick it up don't stick around.

     

    2. Free Trials

    This too has seen an uptick due to recent marketing efforts.  We'll see if EA announces active subscribers or active players.  Technically though they could try to make free trial accounts out to be subscribers in order to pad the numbers.

     

    Either way there isn't any decent game out there. If people like PVE then they're in WoW or another PVE game.  If they like PVP they are on EVE, WoW-PVP Servers, War, AOC, and a handful of others. All of them pretty much play alike.

    I think the market will remain like it is now until major releases come out in 2010 or 2011.

     

     

  • Tyvolus1Tyvolus1 Charlotte, NCPosts: 815Member
    Originally posted by Pheace

    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Pheace

    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Sortran


    I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.



     

    you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

     

    I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.

     

    Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.

     

    In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".

     

    Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.

    IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC.  I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can.  This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it.  And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint.  Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them.  They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.

     

     

    Haha, that completely went over your head didn't it? Do you need someone to translate what I said to you? Did you understand a single word I said? I didn't say they lied, I said they didn't need to. Reread what I said because you obviously didn't grasp it at all, which just makes yourself look like a fool for building an argument on something I didn't say :)  

     

    Love your baseless defensive rant though, very true to form, attack the messenger on something he didn't say rather than argue the point he did  ;)

    "IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC."

     

    This is what I wrote in response to your mindless ramblings which all but tried to convince people that EA is attempting to mislead people in their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  You run on about how they are trying to manipulate their subs they provide in a report they filed.  You should try not to speak out of both sides of your mouth, especially in the same thread.  Either way, we can argue semantics all day, but everyone here knows which one of us is the smart one, and it isnt the guy with the picture of "fluffy" for his avatar.

  • PheacePheace LeidenPosts: 2,408Member
    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Pheace

    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Pheace

    Originally posted by Tyvolus1

    Originally posted by Sortran


    I guessed at 200-300k, probably around 250k though I doubt EA will give anything more then what they consider a rough estimate to avoid any conflict with stock holders. Judging by my former ingame guild (before I moved to greener pastures) Pop Jumped a lot with the trial accounts, but they say it has leveled off and maybe dipping a bit. Will be interesting to see.



     

    you apparently know very little of the legal requirements of public companies to provide accurate and true information regarding their business operations.  But, nice try.

     

    I'd love for you to read to me their first EQ quarterly report after WAR's release and tell me "exactly" what it meant for WAR. Because there were countless different descriptions of what it "could" have meant.

     

    Yes they have an obligation not to lie if they state something in a clear manner. There's no obligation to do that though. They can simply say they have "450k people playing WAR today!" and that would not be a lie on their part even though it might include 150k trials for all we know.

     

    In other words, even though they may not lie about numbers in the report they also may not be an accurate representation of what most of us would call "Subscribers".  More often they will use "players" actually which is a totally undefined legal term which you can't easily lie about since there's hardly any way to use it "wrong".

     

    Their last report however was a very clearcut "this is where we stand" which I applaud them for, didn't expect them(or any company that has to show a decline) to do that.

    IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC.  I do not work for EA and am in no way responsible for their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  Take it up with the appropriate parties if you feel you can make a case...Somehow I doubt you can.  This is one of those cases of put up or shut up. -- Serious accusations my friend, go ahead and prove it.  And not to me, take it to the SEC and file a complaint.  Just be sure to have some facts, telling them you are a wow fanboi and dont like WAR wont help your case much to them.  They may get a good chuckle at your expense -- something I am known to enjoy as well.

     

     

    Haha, that completely went over your head didn't it? Do you need someone to translate what I said to you? Did you understand a single word I said? I didn't say they lied, I said they didn't need to. Reread what I said because you obviously didn't grasp it at all, which just makes yourself look like a fool for building an argument on something I didn't say :)  

     

    Love your baseless defensive rant though, very true to form, attack the messenger on something he didn't say rather than argue the point he did  ;)

    "IF EA, did in fact lie, mislead and/or produce false information pertaining to its quarterly and/or annual filings, I strongly suggest you take that up with the SEC."

     

    This is what I wrote in response to your mindless ramblings which all but tried to convince people that EA is attempting to mislead people in their quarterly and/or yearly filings.  You run on about how they are trying to manipulate their subs they provide in a report they filed.  You should try not to speak out of both sides of your mouth, especially in the same thread.  Either way, we can argue semantics all day, but everyone here knows which one of us is the smart one, and it isnt the guy with the picture of "fluffy" for his avatar.

     

    Considering you're the one that tried to make it sound like companies only provide "accurate and true information" and you didn't even manage to bring up a single argument to my reply to that. Yes I 'm pretty sure people know who's the one in the wrong here.

     

    If you hadn't noticed, I already claimed "what you said" was based on your own misconceptions, yet you continue to somehow take them for truth after having been made to bend over already. But go right ahead and keep insulting people though and making up stuff, it's very true to form ;)

    image

  • skepticalskeptical cleveland, OHPosts: 357Member

    Well i tried the 10 day reactivation deal. This game is a disaster. They have added several things but the core of the game has not changed at all. It seems to just be a continuous rehash of mush. I have no idea what the total popualtion is but on the NA servers it's really low it seems despite the fact that they have basically merged servers 10 to 1 now. Some NA servers barely break out of low population even in prime time. During off peak hours it's virtually a wasteland. Unless 250k of the 300k are EU players there is no chance this game has 300k subs now. I  would be surprised if they had more than 100k in NA. Servers continue to lose players and some have become very unbalanced making the problem worse.

     

    They still haven't fixed many of the problems they had in beta yet they try to keep spitting out new classes live events and other stuff to keep people playing but unfortunately most of it is plagued with bugs and broken like the rest of the game. It's a shame that mythic has let this game fail so badly but I guess they are broke anyway so it's hard to put resources into something when your losing money already.

  • popinjaypopinjay Northeast, PAPosts: 6,539Member


    Originally posted by Zorndorf

    There is an odd thing going on these days.
    Warhammer is now being promoted through Xfire ... (by giving it free speech and access to the trials).


    Who's doing that, Zorn?

    I didn't see a promotion through Xfire by Mythic recently. Could you link that?

  • lttexxanlttexxan levelland, TXPosts: 419Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Volatility


    What is your guess on WAR sub numbers for Q1 to be reported on May 12. Reminder: The last guidance (Q4) was 300.000 in their Q3 earnings report. This was just after Christmas sales. Do you think numbers have improved or have gotten worse ? please vote
    I know, it is still three weeks till then, but I think starting the poll now gives more people the chance to participate.
     



     

    3?....17?.....4768590432?.....1/2 ?

    It's better to lurk in forums and be thought a fool...than to endlessly "Quote" and remove all doubts.

  • MiklosanMiklosan turkuPosts: 176Member

    War is below 200k active players! (I'm NOT one of them)

     

    But they will probably show a number of 350-400k. Free trials etc. included.

     

     

  • CyberWizCyberWiz AntwerpPosts: 950Member Uncommon

    Either way, I recently came back to WAR and loving it, they made ALOT of improvements and medium servers have an active population.

    If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site :
    http://mmodata.blogspot.be/
    Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online

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