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Real Life Investors vs MMORPGs financial expert pannel.

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Comments

  • hobo9766hobo9766 teriit, ALPosts: 454Member

    Norweigian analysts will always be wrong since they are seeing funcom from within a certain degree of national pride. A degree of bias is involved.

  • JasmaJasma IstanbulPosts: 126Member
    Originally posted by hobo9766


    Norweigian analysts will always be wrong since they are seeing funcom from within a certain degree of national pride. A degree of bias is involved.



     

    You can't have read his post. I think he is asking why some people only refer to an outdated negative article from back in Dec, but not to the four positive articles that came out yesterday or whatever. They are all norwegian so... He kind of have a point. I think certain people are using financial rubbish to get to FC now.

    I just came from WAR a couple of weeks back and I'll tell you, AoC is in a remarkable good state compared to Mythics shit. Bleeeehhh... WAR is boring and screwed up!!!

  • MitaraMitara NAPosts: 525Member Uncommon

    The current status of Funcom surely is not good, but there is hope for the future.

    Yes, AoC, did lack contents and its playing fields was limited in size and innovation. The game became unpopular mostly though, because people expected more. When you come from WoW that has been build up by frequently added contents throughout many years, and then you meet a new game with 1/10 of that in contents, the mood has to be disappointment.

    For a newcomer to MMO, AoC is beliieve it or not, an amazing experience, its generally agreed that it is the best looking MMO on the market, and yes, when you are an experience MMO gamer, you go through the contents very fast, but for the newcomer, that isnt so, and it takes a little time before they start to think "where do I go to level up".

    So while AoC steadily becomes better and better, there is no doubt it needs to, to keep even the barely 100K subscriber they have now. But why wouldnt they do what they can?

    Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good. He is working on the comng mmo title The Secret World, so that game does have a chance.

    They are also working on several casual MMO's, which actually is a much much bigger market, than the quality client MMO market is. They chose to use the Unity engine for this, which is a huge scoop, since thats probably the best engine out there right now for casual MMO's and a very fast one to develop in, meaning they just might be ready  to launch their next mmo already in 2009.

    Those two things, would get an investor hopeful, the hiring of Rasmus and the use of the right developing tool, Unity, making them able to launch something in 2009.

  • HamrtimeHamrtime o''fallon, MOPosts: 200Member


    Originally posted by zymurgeist
    There's wrong and then there's wrong. "The stock lost 90% of it's value" is a misleading statement. It was never worth that much.When Funcom was 55 it was way overvalued. The game would have to be an amazing success to justify the stock having been that high. People ran it up on pure speculation. Prior to that it was at about 12. It was worth that. A successful AoC launch would have justified a significant increase. Maybe to 24. AoC had a bad launch the stock fell rapidly. Now the company is undervalued so the stock is slowly drifting upward. That's where the buy recommendations comes from. However it's not worth 12 any more. It's more like 5 or6 and it's not going to have any significant gain until the company finds a way to increase it's revenue stream or gets closer to launching another game. No Funcom isn't going bankrupt. No it's not going to suddenly become an investment that makes people rich overnight. No AoC is not the largest  part of the companies debt, revenue, or operating budget any more. It's just another property like AO.  There are better gaming companies to invest in right now but funcom is a reasonable buy for a small portion of your investment portfolio if you only expect at most a very modest return.
     
    Yes I'm a real life investor. No I'm not a broker or a financial expert or Rodger O. Riney. I'm just a guy with a self managed retirement account.


    WoW.......This kills me.

    #1 The stock lost 93% of its value in 2008. I still dont understand how thats misleading. Doesnt matter if "you think" it was over valued. Facts are facts.

    #2 So if AoC is just like AO (which currently brings in little to no income), where is their revenue coming from? AoC has an est 70,000 subs! There isnt enough income coming into the company to keep it going in its current state.

    Can you explain why they lost 38,000,000 u.s. in 2008? Or how about the 23,000,000 in the 4th quarter alone. Its simple math really. There isnt enough revenue coming in from AoC to support the company.

    They have 39,000,000 in cash at the end of 2008. If they lost 7,000,000 in Jan and Feb like they did in the months in the 4th q then they are down to around 25,000,000. How long will the company last with little cash and all the debt they have????? Not long.

  • Darth_OsorDarth_Osor Mt Laurel, NJPosts: 1,089Member

    I'd like to point out that many people actually bought Enron stock after it bottomed out thinking it would rebound.  Just sayin'.

  • _Shadowmage_Shadowmage MelbournePosts: 1,459Member


    Originally posted by Mitara
    Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good. He is working on the comng mmo title The Secret World, so that game does have a chance.

    They are also working on several casual MMO's, which actually is a much much bigger market, than the quality client MMO market is. They chose to use the Unity engine for this, which is a huge scoop, since thats probably the best engine out there right now for casual MMO's and a very fast one to develop in, meaning they just might be ready  to launch their next mmo already in 2009.

    Those two things, would get an investor hopeful, the hiring of Rasmus and the use of the right developing tool, Unity, making them able to launch something in 2009.

    Wow - just wow. Can I have what you are smoking.

    Now I dont claim to know everyone who is anyone in game development, so I googled your genius developer. The highest rated (and only link) for this genius - is the very thread I am posting in.

    As for your claim that they scooped the best engine out there - Unity's claim to fame for being a great engine is that Funcom are using it.


    When Funcom, makers of Anarchy Online and Age of Conan, decide to use Unity for their upcoming browser based MMO project, you know it has to be good.


    Thats a catch 22. Funcom must be in a good position as they are using the best engine - which is the best engine because funcom are using it!

    Darn - why wont my stockbroker answer the phone - I want to sell my house and buy funcom shares. It must be a great investment since the 4 leading stock broking companies in the world say its a great buy. /sarcasm
  • Bill_pullBill_pull Nox, TNPosts: 20Member
    Originally posted by _Shadowmage


     

    Originally posted by Mitara

    Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good. He is working on the comng mmo title The Secret World, so that game does have a chance.



    They are also working on several casual MMO's, which actually is a much much bigger market, than the quality client MMO market is. They chose to use the Unity engine for this, which is a huge scoop, since thats probably the best engine out there right now for casual MMO's and a very fast one to develop in, meaning they just might be ready  to launch their next mmo already in 2009.



    Those two things, would get an investor hopeful, the hiring of Rasmus and the use of the right developing tool, Unity, making them able to launch something in 2009.


    Wow - just wow. Can I have what you are smoking.



    Now I dont claim to know everyone who is anyone in game development, so I googled your genius developer. The highest rated (and only link) for this genius - is the very thread I am posting in.



    As for your claim that they scooped the best engine out there - Unity's claim to fame for being a great engine is that Funcom are using it.

     

     



    When Funcom, makers of Anarchy Online and Age of Conan, decide to use Unity for their upcoming browser based MMO project, you know it has to be good.




    Thats a catch 22. Funcom must be in a good position as they are using the best engine - which is the best engine because funcom are using it!



    Darn - why wont my stockbroker answer the phone - I want to sell my house and buy funcom shares. It must be a great investment since the 4 leading stock broking companies in the world say its a great buy. /sarcasm

     



     

    So from what I'm reading in this thread, the fans here aren't really fans of AOC anymore(since it sounds like they all agree it has plummeting subscribers), instead they are trying to prop up 'funcom' the company now.

  • AssasinatedAssasinated Montgomery, ALPosts: 31Member
    Originally posted by Bill_pull

    Originally posted by _Shadowmage


     

    Originally posted by Mitara

    Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good. He is working on the comng mmo title The Secret World, so that game does have a chance.



    They are also working on several casual MMO's, which actually is a much much bigger market, than the quality client MMO market is. They chose to use the Unity engine for this, which is a huge scoop, since thats probably the best engine out there right now for casual MMO's and a very fast one to develop in, meaning they just might be ready  to launch their next mmo already in 2009.



    Those two things, would get an investor hopeful, the hiring of Rasmus and the use of the right developing tool, Unity, making them able to launch something in 2009.


    Wow - just wow. Can I have what you are smoking.



    Now I dont claim to know everyone who is anyone in game development, so I googled your genius developer. The highest rated (and only link) for this genius - is the very thread I am posting in.



    As for your claim that they scooped the best engine out there - Unity's claim to fame for being a great engine is that Funcom are using it.

     

     



    When Funcom, makers of Anarchy Online and Age of Conan, decide to use Unity for their upcoming browser based MMO project, you know it has to be good.




    Thats a catch 22. Funcom must be in a good position as they are using the best engine - which is the best engine because funcom are using it!



    Darn - why wont my stockbroker answer the phone - I want to sell my house and buy funcom shares. It must be a great investment since the 4 leading stock broking companies in the world say its a great buy. /sarcasm

     



     

    So from what I'm reading in this thread, the fans here aren't really fans of AOC anymore(since it sounds like they all agree it has plummeting subscribers), instead they are trying to prop up 'funcom' the company now.



     

    I don't think anyone have talked about subscription in this thread till your post, so it's a bit off topic. My question was, what are the Real Life Investors and Analysts doing wrong since they have absolute opposite opinion polarity compared to some of the finacial experts here in MMORPG. Or visa versa, what are our mmorpg finance people doing wrong? Nobody have really answered this still. I am thoroughly disapointed in our own peoples ability to answer spot on this question. You all answer, well FC went down a bunch last year and that's the end of the reflection really. It is irrelevant how much it went down last year, I wonder why some people think it now will go a bunch up after it already have gone up >50% this year (I think statements as FC will double can be called a bunch).

    This is last time I try to bring the thread back on topic, as this is really not that important. But I am baffled over your ability to read, comprehend and answer rather well defined questions? It's up to you guys to speak a bit about whats going on NOW and not last year.

  • UnfinishedUnfinished Kailua, HIPosts: 881Member
    Originally posted by Assasinated



     
    I don't think anyone have talked about subscription in this thread till your post, so it's a bit off topic. My question was, what are the Real Life Investors and Analysts doing wrong since they have absolute opposite opinion polarity compared to some of the finacial experts here in MMORPG. Or visa versa, what are our mmorpg finance people doing wrong? Nobody have really answered this still. I am thoroughly disapointed in our own peoples ability to answer spot on this question. You all answer, well FC went down a bunch last year and that's the end of the reflection really. It is irrelevant how much it went down last year, I wonder why some people think it now will go a bunch up after it already have gone up >50% this year (I think statements as FC will double can be called a bunch).
    This is last time I try to bring the thread back on topic, as this is really not that important. But I am baffled over your ability to read, comprehend and answer rather well defined questions? It's up to you guys to speak a bit about whats going on NOW and not last year.

     

    You found 3-4 people suggesting FC as a choice TO BUY AS A PENNY STOCK *  (i.e.low buy-in,  high risk), how many analysts do you think there are working world wide?  50,000, 100,000, 300,000 ? You found a couple people who are saying "Hey if your looking for a big gamble why not try out FunCom."

    It seems like your question has more to do with your limited knowledge of how stocks and the market work, if you spend the time educating yourself on the subject I think the answer will become self evident. You will not find a single legitimate Analyst in the world telling you to build your portfolio around Penny Stocks.

    * From Wikipedia "Penny Stock - High-risk investments These risks include limited liquidity, lack of financial reporting, and fraud. Legitimate information on penny stock companies can be difficult to find and a stock can be easily manipulated"

  • Bill_pullBill_pull Nox, TNPosts: 20Member

    The total amount of Funcom shares that traded hands today was $15,000 USD.   Some guy down my street bought a new car, and it was a bigger change in money than an entire day of Funcom stock trades.   This stock is so far off the radar of EVERYONE, that I don't think anyone but someone living next to Funcom HQ's even knows it's a publicly traded company.

    Penny stocks are notorious for volatility..  One buy order can send the stock up 20%.   A few hours later a sell order sends it back down 20%.  Do you know that pension funds, mutual funds and banks are forbidden to even buy junk stocks?  Do you know why?  Because it isn't considered investing.. it's more like flipping a coin.    Don't believe me?  Ask the 'insider' who bought the stock 6 months ago at $15

  • AssasinatedAssasinated Montgomery, ALPosts: 31Member

    Unfinished, you are just rude as if you feel I am picking a fight. Well I am not. Look, it's just a few hours since I made the post above. I can still remember what is says, it says 4 analysts (not less) and I copied the text to you as a proof (you refer to this as 2-3  analysts). Also the text says very clearly that some of them indeed made FunCom part of their portefolio. Now if you gonna be angry and rude because I point out that you and the other experts consistently don't talk about the topic, then so be it. I'm not gonna join you in the fight you are trying to pick here. Why are you getting angry?

    Bill, i did not get your point.

    MMORPG, unless somebody else that have something usefull to say stops by, I suggest you just close this thread. I give up trying to get something usefull out of this.

  • _Shadowmage_Shadowmage MelbournePosts: 1,459Member

    I suggest you stop getting annoyed at people trying to answer your question.

    Also you found four analysts that recommend the stock. Big deal - do any of them say why they recommend the stock? The one of your links I checked didnt say why they thought it was a good investment. So perhaps you should be asking them why they think its so good - instead of asking us why we think they are wrong.

    The article from Reuters doesnt sound favorable


    Shares in Norwegian computer game maker Funcom (FUNCOM.OL) fall 10.4 percent after it takes impairment charges of $22.8 million in the fourth-quarter, mainly to reflect lower revenues than anticipated from the online computer game 'Age of Conan'.

    Analyst Fredrik Thoresen at DnB NOR Markets says comments from Funcom suggest interest in the game is levelling off.



    http://uk.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUKLN44961520090223?sp=true

    Or try this one
    http://www.digitallook.com/companyresearch/1204559/Funcom/share_prices.html

    They could only find two brokers who would comment on the stock - and both are neutral.

    http://cincinnati.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/othercities/triangle/stories/2009/02/23/daily20.html which says they lost 58cents for every share issued in the 4th qtr, their Chief Finance Officer left etc. Sound real promising.

    http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=FUNCOM.OL yet another link that shows no brokers recommending buying this stock.

    So perhaps its a bit of a national pride thing.

  • MitaraMitara NAPosts: 525Member Uncommon

    I supplyed you with 2 reasons I have been given by current investors, only to see people like Shadowmage, curring my post down. I do understand, its very clear from the wording shadowmage is using, that he is on some kind of crusade against Funcom. I cant blame him for not liking Funcom, I dont like them much either. I can blame him for not being serious...

  • UnfinishedUnfinished Kailua, HIPosts: 881Member
    Originally posted by Assasinated


    Unfinished, you are just rude as if you feel I am picking a fight. Well I am not. Look, it's just a few hours since I made the post above. I can still remember what is says, it says 4 analysts (not less) and I copied the text to you as a proof (you refer to this as 2-3  analysts). Also the text says very clearly that some of them indeed made FunCom part of their portefolio. Now if you gonna be angry and rude because I point out that you and the other experts consistently don't talk about the topic, then so be it. I'm not gonna join you in the fight you are trying to pick here. Why are you getting angry?
    Bill, i did not get your point.
    MMORPG, unless somebody else that have something usefull to say stops by, I suggest you just close this thread. I give up trying to get something usefull out of this.

     

    On the internet, the angry tone of voice you are claiming to hear is your own imagination.

    Did you even bother to read the link to Wiki on what a Penny Stock is? You claimed to want help understanding, many here have tried, and you keep saying you still don't understand. I don't know what more we can do to try to help.

    If you are going to take offense to every answer in life that you don't want to hear, you are in for a rough road.

  • Litigator_ABLitigator_AB Edmonton, ABPosts: 311Member
    Originally posted by Assasinated


    Unfinished, you are just rude as if you feel I am picking a fight. Well I am not. Look, it's just a few hours since I made the post above. I can still remember what is says, it says 4 analysts (not less) and I copied the text to you as a proof (you refer to this as 2-3  analysts). Also the text says very clearly that some of them indeed made FunCom part of their portefolio. Now if you gonna be angry and rude because I point out that you and the other experts consistently don't talk about the topic, then so be it. I'm not gonna join you in the fight you are trying to pick here. Why are you getting angry?
    Bill, i did not get your point.
    MMORPG, unless somebody else that have something usefull to say stops by, I suggest you just close this thread. I give up trying to get something usefull out of this.

     

    If they made Funcom part of their portfolio they are poor investors.  Any long-term return on Funcom is a gamble based on a company that has never produced a successful MMO and had its revenue drop around 60% last quarter. 

    The MMORPG model is built on a liberal supply of credit cards.  Due to the constriction in discretionary credit that is going to happen over the next year, that is going to affect EVERY mmo.  And MMO's that are underwater (meaning losing money) are the ones in the most vulnerable position. 

    Many companies can get away with 100,000 subscriptions and be golden.  Perhaps Funcom can too if it fires 250 of its employees.  But that type of contraction will crush the stock value and because Funcom is public they wont do it.

    Instead they are going to chase their tail with the world's most God awful idea for an MMO: "The Secret World".  It is probably the worst MMO idea out there and has about the same chance of success as "Imperator" did.  

    So the course of events will go something like this:  They are going to continue to support AoC and they are going to develop "The Secret World".  The Secret World, due to funding issues, will be released early in late 2010 and due to no money for advertising (and a retarded concept) will fall flat on its face.  Funcom's only decent IP (AoC for sure, and Dreamfall and AO at nominal prices) will be bought up as Funcom goes under. 

    If it wasn't real life it would actually be funny.  As it stands it is sad and any investor who thinks AoC is going to grow obviously never played it.  Successful MMOs all have a hardcore playerbase (not fanbois) and AoC has none.  There is nothing to do in the game other than flutter around with no purpose and no goals.  Sure Funcom can keep AoC open and develop it with its bankroll, but every dollar it spends now has diminishing returns and works towards Funcom's earlier demise.

  • _Shadowmage_Shadowmage MelbournePosts: 1,459Member


    Originally posted by Mitara
    I supplyed you with 2 reasons I have been given by current investors, only to see people like Shadowmage, curring my post down. I do understand, its very clear from the wording shadowmage is using, that he is on some kind of crusade against Funcom. I cant blame him for not liking Funcom, I dont like them much either. I can blame him for not being serious...

    cry me a river. Instead of claiming to be the victim of a crusade, how about posting some links to back up the unfounded assertions you made in your post.

    Here I will remind you
    Funcom has new things up the sleeve as well. They recently hired a genious game designer (Rasmus Hahr), a bit of a scoop for Funcom, since he is really good.



    How about a link to anything this so-called genius developer has done? Again I googled him and the only two entries I could find that mention him - are both from you on this forum. So forgive me if I dont accept your word that some total unknown is a genius.

    And the unity engine - Yes its been used on some games. That hardly makes it the best engine. Perhaps you could post some links to articles about the Unity engine that back up your assertion.

    And again - you claim Funcom has something up their sleeve as they are using an engine (Unity) which says it must be good because funcom are using it. Thats a circular argument (catch 22). THe one doesnt prove the other.

    So no crusade. I read your post, then rather than accepting what a complete stranger posted as the truth - I did some research. Then I debunked your post.
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