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60% of the official community polled think Darkfall will have over 150,000 subscribers, 40% think ov

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  • TheodgrimTheodgrim Des Moines, IAPosts: 535Member

    I assume the poll was shooting for the peak subscription numbers.   Because for launch, that scale is off by like a factor of ten.

    Besides the issues of market share for a hardcore game and other issues brought up, take a look at their forum subs.  They just broke the 50K mark.  Now, I am not sure exactly how long the forums have been up in the current incarnation, but it has been at least 3 years, minimum.  Anyone with insight knows that 50K number is not people, but logins.  Every time they say they are close to beta, folks will create multiple alts so they can sign up multiple times and increase ther chance to be accepted.  And of course, you have the guys that need multiple accounts to argue for/against the game.  Factor in those that got frustrated and moved on.  My guess, is you have 5-10K core fans.

    After the free month, if there are 10-30K subscribers left, I think we have a resounding success.  And if the game is really all that it promises, we could see EvE-like growth over the years.  I cant see it ever breaking 250K, though of course, that is just my opinion.

  • IsaneIsane EnglandPosts: 2,629Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Cereo


    Vanguard promised a 1/3 of what Darkfall does, maybe even less, and it didn't have some of the features and it had bugs at launch and everyone jumped ship to leave it at around 25-50K. People keep saying "if it has half of what it promises it will be awesome". WRONG! If it is missing ONE thing it is supposed to and they don't tell you until you buy it, the game will burn to the ground. That is how Blizzard set the stage, sorry. If you want big numbers, you have to deliver what you promise and have tons of polish.
    This game shows no sign of polish and its impossible it can deliver all it promises. Not to mention its targeting OLD features that people don't want anymore. That has been proven and its time to move on. To the naive "some people don't realize how big the market is for this niche stuff"... just because you and your old time friend from UO still feel this way doesn't mean you have any idea what the numbers are in the marketable pool of people that still want this. EQ and UO were great, but the people that played those games (me being one) have jobs now. We can't dedicate time like that anymore and we don't really want to get griefed anymore and lose all our work.
    And you got one main stream of people left, the people that came on the WoW train. There are millions of them, but I doubt you could pull 1K of them away as they started with WoW and they don't accept any less polish and they hate anything complex or that makes you work hard.



     

    You are simply wrong there is a whole generation of people who know, the feeling of what a real game delivers the current crop of MMOs don't . DF will do just fine.

    You won't loose your skill and the NPCs have plenty of nice armor to loot so re-equiping will be fun and part of the game. The skill progression and retraining has a finite element to it , so once that is done it is off to play real game get out into the world and play with friends and foes.

    And no gold farmers... Sounds good to me "The look at the leet gear will be just one element of the game." But many others will exist as leet features won't have dumbed down gameplay.

    ________________________________________________________
    Sorcery must persist, the future is the Citadel 

  • claudiofmclaudiofm las palmas de GCPosts: 81Member

    1 year = 400.000 or 600.000

    2 year = 600.000 or 2.000.000

    4 year = 10.000.000

    6 year = world player play darkfall 20 o 30 millons

     

     

     

    wow

     

     

  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member

    if that happen i would die of a heart attack

    highly doubt it

  • GerecGerec Raleigh-Durham, NCPosts: 185Member

    I love it how people compare Darkfall to completely different games and say it won't succeed. There is too much stupidity in this thread, so I'll try to handle it in a general way here. I am not saying that DF will or will not be a big hit, or even going to share my thoughts, but people:

     


    • Archlord is not comparable to DF in any way. They are completely different games, and Archlord is not doing well for it's own reasons. Don't even mention Archlord.

    • There is a reason that EVE is consistently at or near the top of the MMORPG.com charts for ratings. I am not trying to say that mmorpg.com represents the market as a whole. All I'm saying is, while you may think that EVE is boring (I do too) there is a dedicated fanbase that very much disagrees with you. Everyone I know who likes EVE, loves it. I think we'll find that if Darkfall launches successfully, a similar fanbase will form.

    • WoW, Warhammer and LoTRO are also not comparable to Darkfall. Warhammer is similar with a PvP focus, but it is a very different game. The art direction is cartoony, it is class and level based, etc etc etc.

    • Darkfall's potential fanbase far exceeds just former players of UO, Shadowbane, and whatever other titles you want to throw in. I never played UO in it's prime (only well after), never played Shadowbane, Horizons, Dark and Light, etc etc. I know many people like me, who were introduced to MMOs largely through EQ, DAoC, and other games. There is a sizeable market of people like me who are bored of class/level games with the same rehashed "features" and nothing new.

    If Darkfall launches successfully, it will have a decent player base probably comparable to EVE.

  • ZorvanZorvan nowhere, CAPosts: 8,912Member
    Originally posted by claudiofm


    you are the ignorant 
    time the time
     
    we see in summer sales , the 2009
     
    player wow+player aoc+player war+playaer casual+player other
     
    easy 500.000 1 year or 750.000
     
    Darkfall is the most anticipated game by players

    1st: I have no idea what wow/aoc/war/casual players have to do with how many subs DF will have.

     

    2nd: outside of a few forums, noone knows or cares about Darkfall. Most anticipated game? Even Hello Kitty Online has more followers.

  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member

    you think zorvan they have more active followers thats it

    most are lil kids

  • mike470mike470 General Correspondent -unknown-Posts: 2,396Member

    This just shows how ignorant the DF community is.  People really think an indy game, without any proof of anything an no U.S. punlisher will reach 750,000 subs in the first year?  Not even a possiblity!  WAR will hardly (if at all) hit those numbers, and it has a MUCH bigger following than Darkfall.

     

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  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member

    i dont think so i think 250k at max.. but more likly 50-100k it just really depends..

  • RoinRoin Baltimore, MDPosts: 2,927Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Xxeon


    you think zorvan they have more active followers thats it
    most are lil kids

     

    You pull that one from your crystal ball? Or do you actually know everyone that plays every MMORPG, thereby allowing you to know how old they are?  Xxeon we appreciate your "zeal" when it comes to DarkFall Online.  I just want to drop this one bit of knowledge on you though.   Sometimes it's better to keep your mouth shut, and let people believe you to be a fool.  Then to open your mouth, and remove all doubt.

    In War - Victory.
    In Peace - Vigilance.
    In Death - Sacrifice.

  • ddevddev AthensPosts: 165Member

     One can easily forecast the numbers of subscribers by just looking those who voted: 280 individuals voted -potential customers- if the game ever launches. So, how many will play this in the end? anything around 500-5000

  • Zaxx99Zaxx99 Somewhere IN, INPosts: 1,761Member

    IF it releases.. and that's a HUGE "if"...

    It will have about as many followers as "Dark and Light" has now.

    Broken game.. Broken population.

    This game will be lucky as hell to sell 10,000 copies it's first three months after release.

    And if it's a total broken piece of shit like I almost guarantee you that it will be, it will quickly dwindle from there.

    First, it has to actually release.

    People talking of this game getting 500,000 subscribers, or even 100,000 for that matter, seriously need to be placed in a mental ward and have their head examined.

    This game has "FAIL" written all over it. Sorry fans of this game. Those of us that have lived through games like "Mourning" and "Dark and Light" have been down this very same block before. This is no different. In fact, Dark and Light showed about twice as much promise in my opinion of being a decent game as Darkfall has ever shown.

    Again, whatever you fans do.. PLEASE.. do NOT give this company money before this game launches. They WILL ask for pre-order money. Almost guaranteed. I know, I know. They or Tasos has promised that wouldn't happen. And I promise you that it will. We shall see whos promise is broken here. Watch and learn, just heed my warning and don't be so quick to give them your credit card. I don't care what they offer you as in incentive to preorder this shit. I don't care if they offer you 2 weeks to level and play before anyone else plays and they offer you a +100 sword of vanquishing and an inviso suit of diamond plate armor. Don't do it! ..For your own sake.


    - Zaxx

    image

  • QarkQark zagrebPosts: 234Member

    this issue should be approached from seveal sides:

    A - If game dont get released > vaporware

    B - if game do release but developers dont implement all features promised but they are written on box:

    - in this scenario game would start with maybe 100 000 players, but since developers are slow and they lack of comunication game would flop with maybe 20 000 - 30 000 players



    C - game get released but without all features and players know that:

    - again it would start with less numbers, maybe like 50 000 leaving only hardcore players at end



    D - game get released with all features:

    - that would be best possible scenario, wih 100 000 sold games at start and in next 6-8 months maybe 50 000 more

    Best possible scenario what is (im sure) only imagination is to make DX9 game with nice GFX and all promised fatures, great customer support and updates coming frequently...that would get Darkfall to 250 000 player base, and maybe more!

    -------------------->
    Would you like some cheese with that whine?

  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member
    Originally posted by zaxtor99


    IF it releases.. and that's a HUGE "if"...
    It will have about as many followers as "Dark and Light" has now.
    Broken game.. Broken population.
    This game will be lucky as hell to sell 10,000 copies it's first three months after release.
    And if it's a total broken piece of shit like I almost guarantee you that it will be, it will quickly dwindle from there.
    First, it has to actually release.
    People talking of this game getting 500,000 subscribers, or even 100,000 for that matter, seriously need to be placed in a mental ward and have their head examined.
    This game has "FAIL" written all over it. Sorry fans of this game. Those of us that have lived through games like "Mourning" and "Dark and Light" have been down this very same block before. This is no different. In fact, Dark and Light showed about twice as much promise in my opinion of being a decent game as Darkfall has ever shown.
    Again, whatever you fans do.. PLEASE.. do NOT give this company money before this game launches. They WILL ask for pre-order money. Almost guaranteed. I know, I know. They or Tasos has promised that wouldn't happen. And I promise you that it will. We shall see whos promise is broken here. Watch and learn, just heed my warning and don't be so quick to give them your credit card. I don't care what they offer you as in incentive to preorder this shit. I don't care if they offer you 2 weeks to level and play before anyone else plays and they offer you a +100 sword of vanquishing and an inviso suit of diamond plate armor. Don't do it! ..For your own sake.


    - Zaxx



     

    there not going to ask for anymoney.. how many times do we have to tell you.

    if they do then im going to question them...

  • QarkQark zagrebPosts: 234Member

    why dont they comunicate more with their fanbase?

    I didnt see one post in main Darkfall forum from developers except in "news" department.

    why they want to "hide" everything? i know they want to present perfect finishd game but they for sure by now must have more polished parts of that world...

    -------------------->
    Would you like some cheese with that whine?

  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member
    Originally posted by Qark


    why dont they comunicate more with their fanbase?
    I didnt see one post in main Darkfall forum from developers except in "news" department.
    why they want to "hide" everything? i know they want to present perfect finishd game but they for sure by now must have more polished parts of that world...



     

    they use to and they would always say beta they had to put a stop to it when they merged with aventurine ..

  • ArtermisArtermis CarlislePosts: 172Member
    Originally posted by Xxeon

    Originally posted by Qark


    why dont they comunicate more with their fanbase?
    I didnt see one post in main Darkfall forum from developers except in "news" department.
    why they want to "hide" everything? i know they want to present perfect finishd game but they for sure by now must have more polished parts of that world...



     

    they use to and they would always say beta they had to put a stop to it when they formed a new company and called it aventurine, and let razorwax to bankrupcy ..

    Fixed your reply.

  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member
    Originally posted by Artermis

    Originally posted by Xxeon

    Originally posted by Qark


    why dont they comunicate more with their fanbase?
    I didnt see one post in main Darkfall forum from developers except in "news" department.
    why they want to "hide" everything? i know they want to present perfect finishd game but they for sure by now must have more polished parts of that world...



     

    they use to and they would always say beta they had to put a stop to it when they formed a new company and called it aventurine, and let razorwax to bankrupcy ..

    Fixed your reply.



     

    well i wasnt even talking about that. it was a merge and thats final. no reason to have 2 buildings when 1 isnt doing anything. because they MERGED.

    Razorwax moved to greece aventurine was already formed. by tasos and another guy that was not part of razorwax.  Then they decided to merge.  everything was beign done at aventurine. Why keep razorwax open it was a money sink.

     when razorwax went bankrupt Aventurine bought there stocks for cheap. this was already explained

  • knowomknowom Buxton, MEPosts: 194Member Uncommon

    evidence of proof please... procecution rests RIP Darkfall

  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member

    no razorwax wasnt working on darkfall since like 2003. its been aventurine since. no clue why they kept razorwax running until 2006 : /.

    all well your going to regret that

  • PolarizationPolarization LondonPosts: 1,410Member
    Originally posted by FischerBlack

    Originally posted by Brezjnev

    Originally posted by Trogg13


    i agree those numbers are a bit unrealistic, especially as the percentages reported in your subject add to 125%...
     
    DF devs have said they plan to start with a small number of servers and grow from there, which is IMO the smart way to go. if done well, and not too hardcore, i could see DF getting 250K subscribers over a year or 2.
     
    DF fans may be optimistic, but DF trolls are flat-out stupid.

     

    60% of the official community polled think Darkfall will have over 150,000 subscribers, 40% think over 250,000 and 25% think it will be over 750,000.

     

    If 25% think it'll be over 750k, then those 25% think it will also be over 250k, added up with those that think it will be between 250k and 750k that makes ~40% who think it will be over 250k. The one who is wrong here is you, not the OP: Think twice before you go around calling other people stupid, certainly if you have such bad math skills.

    I was just about to post the same thing, well said.

    In regards to the polled subscription numbers themselves, I agree with the sentiment here that they are extremely unrealistic. If DF manages to have close to 100,000 subs 12 months after launch it will have 'hit it out of the park' so to speak.

    750,000 is rediculous tbh




    Unfortunately this person, behind yet another one week wonder account was also attacking me personally for spelling mistakes whilst making spelling mistakes themselves in another thread.

    And now their attacking my statistics whilst demonstrating they don’t understand basic statistics or even have basic reading comprehension themselves, oh well seems some people are just so desperate to attack anyone who they perceive as being critical of their beloved they appear to lose control of all their faculty’s.

    Its all rather desperate and sad, but we need people like this for the sh*ts and giggles.

    But like Gold Member said in Austin Powers in reference to this thread , “oh yeah that ones a keeper”, this will probably be bumped in 5 months time, and I wonder who will have egg on their face, and I wonder how many of the supporters and defenders will still be posting with the same accounts or posting at all if their extremely optimistic expectations are not fulfilled entirely if at all.

  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member

    will you still be around?

  • winterwinter El Paso, TXPosts: 2,276Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Trogg13

    Originally posted by hakubylicks



    Gurantee you 100% that Darkfall is no where even remotely near the quality Archlord is.

     

    For once i agree with you, Darkfall is 100x better.



     

     I'd believe you a bit more if you had ever played the game rather then just coming up with these statements without ever having seen the game play let alone played it yourself.

  • XxeonXxeon fgf, IAPosts: 559Member

    archlod is still crap dont know how df will be

  • PolarizationPolarization LondonPosts: 1,410Member
    Originally posted by Xxeon


    no clue why they kept razorwax running until 2006 : /.




    It might have had something to do with the auditor for Razorwax noting illegal loans to shareholder, the general manager, board member or other twice as well as other auditing irregularities.

    And/or something to do with Razorwax’s publicly stated business being bingo/ online gambling /sweep stakes.

    And/or something to do with Jade El Mehdawi becoming a 50% shareholder in Razorwax.

    And/or something to do with some of the original owners of Razorwax and developers of Darkfall being involved in starting a new company called Aventurine and leaving Norway and their original investors with nothing.

    And/or Razorwax never producing or achieving anything as a company except for attracting investment, debts, numerous changes of the board of directors and then bankruptcy in 2006.

This discussion has been closed.