I used to be really into WoW and then with the last couple of expansions, I headed towards the casual group, partly because real life stuff is busy and partly because the game didn't grip me.
You'd have to be a very narrow-minded Blizzard exec to not figure out where it's all going wrong as people are quick to point out the WoW failings and many are aligned with the issues.
So, will Blizzard take things back a few notches with Legions, to a time and type of game that people enjoyed more or are they just doing their thing, milking the cow until it's dead?
If Legions isn't the big improvement on things that the game needs, then I think the number of subscriptions will be decimated to the point they'll end up going F2P and rely on the cash shop to fund their mini patches.
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I have a hard time seeing them going through the cost of adapting WoW for free to play... Unless they go really free to play.. as in no sub bt no cash shop.. But i find that very unlikely.
As for content. You do not pull in new players by being convoluted just for the sake of being convoluted. What we take for granted are actually fairly complex mechanics.
This have been a good conversation
I had fun once, it was terrible.
However, I do like the speed of the new content being pushed out. That I will disagree with. Legion may just make me resub.
It's easier to adjust the wings of an aircraft when it's slightly off course than it is to recover a vertical dive. I would expect Blizzard to be working hard to recover those numbers before it's a huge mess because it would probably have to reduce costs massively if the subs were not coming in i.e. layoff staff, sell IT equipment etc - better to just keep and recover the customers before it gets to that stage, which was my point really.
And there number just going get lower lower but still have more player then any mmo still for very long time.
But one thing I'm am seeing the same people that was trying sell people WoD are doing again with Legion, on how good going to be just get you to buy the game.
They're fix right now is the next expansion. They knew Illidan is immensely popular. Incorporating the Demon Hunter class is going to draw back an exponential amount of individuals. As simple as it seems, that factor alone in the expansion will help drastically.
For one, it's polly going to lure me back and I'm a hard customer to sell to at this point with this game. I was playing it back in beta.
All the other features coming in the next expansion are just added fluff that I'm actually intrigued by as well. (ie; artifact weapons with customization).
This have been a good conversation
Given the game flops again in legion, most likely the subscription numbers would only slide down further, with a huge disappointment like WoD it could be likely we see numbers drop to 2-3 million. It has a larger team working on it then before, purposely from what we have found out in order to pump out the horrible yearly expansions to rake in more cash from the individual player. While a drop of subs can be made up for in some part by more up front cash being charged, eventually those declining subscriptions will hurt the company with the rapid release of expansions not providing as much money as having better quality and more subscribers steadily paying into the game.
If the game doesn't provide a good expansion in legion, there is a good chance we will see more nickle and diming from blizzard while providing less service in exchange. It won't kill the MMo, but it will for sure diminish the experience and make it difficult for the game to garnish anywhere near the hype it had before. People came back for WoD to give it a chance only to be burned, most people aren't willing to get burnt again. The more blizzard pushes WoW in the wrong direction, the worst off the game will be and the more difficult it will be for wow to ever be as profitable or have as high of a population then it had ever again.
I'm willing to bet for the latter.
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I think that there are a lot of misleading assumptions here. First of all, WoW subscriptions reached a peak as high as any expansions since WotLK, in WoD. Prior to that, subs still hit 10 million during their peak (for Cata and Panda). For that matter, Panda actually surpassed the 10.2 million subs of Cata for a time.
It's not so much that people are losing all faith in WoW. People still want to play WoW, but it's no longer the ONLY game they play. Sub numbers fall off as people cycle in and out of games. That, coupled with gameplay changes that many felt were game-breaking like trivializing professions, adding in the garrisons, removing the skill tree, etc. Fact is, though, it's still one of the most compelling stories.
Also, you're eluding to a slippery slope, but it's sub numbers have never been less than double that of their next closest competitor and probably no less than 10 times that of the #3 subscription game. I'm really sorry, but that's kind of like saying that Wal-Mart is in trouble because they're getting a bad reputation for these "People of Walmart" so they are surely going to lose tons of customers.
Another problem with the whole subscriber theory is "Where the hell do these subscribers go?" The number of MMORPG gamers isn't growing THAT substantially that between each WoW expansion there are like 3 million or more new MMORPG, sub, gamers. No other game is, suddenly, seeing increases of millions of users. No, these are people returning to WoW again and again. Staying and playing through and then leaving again and probably playing other games. The fact that they can't keep people entertained long enough is definitely an issue, but it's not bad considering they have 10 million+ subscribers in each of their past 4 expansions. That's JUST about as good as it gets. The biggest problem WoW has right now is making their content compelling enough to have people stick around between expansions. THAT is a problem I'd love to have as an MMORPG developer.
Crazkanuk
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Anyways I see the game getting worse with Legions, not better. It will be the most rushed expansion in WoW history when they see how many more will unsub in the upcoming months. It already feels rushed with Demon Hunters having 2 specs and 1 race allowed. Endgame will be underdeveloped and players will be even more unforgiving with Blizzard then before.
As many have predicted the WoW killer will be WoW itself.
Guess that is why people are leaving cause the Hellfire raids have one shots and death to fire if you stand in it....but lets go back to bashing WoW without knowing the game.
I had fun once, it was terrible.
Even if Blizzard had the slightest idea about how to make a good xpack, WoW couldn't be saved by just one.
Just look at WoW this way:
The game has essentially become reliant on a core 3-4 million players actively playing the game and purchasing microtransactions, in addition to the 3-4 million that will flock back in for every expansion and pay for anywhere from 1-4 months of subscription time. They not only buy the expansion, but they usually end up paying for a month for the big x.0 patch and the first month of the expansion. Right there is 80$ from that customer. They speed up expansion development to the point where it is roughly every year and that subscription starts to matter less and less. Not that WoW will go F2P, it won't. It is just that now the way they get income is far different then it was when they first started to lose traction after Wrath.
Not to mention that paying for just a month of the expansion won't get you all the expansion content anymore. In order to raid they have time gated the raids to the point where you have to pay an additional month.