Citing bad sales, will ESO survive with console sales?

Karteli

ESO had some bad vibes from Forbes, even before launch, with a whopping $200 million budget:

 

Predicting the Biggest Video Game Disaster of 2014: The Elder Scrolls Online

January 02, 2014

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

 

excerpt:

I’m not sure if it’s arrogance, the idea that people love the Elder Scrolls so much they’ll pay $60 for a box copy and $180 a year to play TESO, but it’s bad business sense at the very least. It’s not only subscription fees that are becoming out of fashion, but the very concept of huge budget, AAA MMOs in general. I thought SWTOR was the final object lesson any other studio would need to scale back whatever future plans they had for their own expensive MMO attempts, but it appears that lesson didn’t sink in for TESO, and they may end up paying the price for it.

 

OK, ESO didn't do so well with PC sales, so Forbes is right.

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=Elder+scrolls+online

(numbers in millions)

Pos	Game	Platform	Year	Genre	Publisher	North America	Europe	Japan	Rest of World	Global
1	The Elder Scrolls Online	PC	2014	Action	Bethesda Softworks	0.14	0.09	0.00	0.03	0.25
2	The Elder Scrolls Online	OSX	2014	Action	Bethesda Softworks	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
3	The Elder Scrolls Online	XOne	2014	Action	Bethesda Softworks	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
4	The Elder Scrolls Online	PS4	2014	Action	Bethesda Softworks	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total						0.14	0.09	0.00	0.03	0.25

 

 

What about console pre-orders? (http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/)

 

 

Pos	Game	Weeks to Launch	Weekly Change	Total

13

The Elder Scrolls Online (XOne) Bethesda Softworks, Action

12

3,139

70,117

14

The Elder Scrolls Online (PS4) Bethesda Softworks, Action

12

2,668

60,936

 

 

As VGChartz has shown, and from their by-kaws, preorders do only include North American sales, but their numbers also reflect digitial sales now.  So double those preorder numbers and you get a round-about number for global sales. (EU sales are roughly equvalent to USA.)

 

 

Call them estimates, but they seem to be pretty much spot on.  (ex 270k sales or 280k sales .. who cares, it's not 4 million).

 

 

ESO must survive with console sales, from here forward, IMO.  Will they?

 

Lord.Bachus

Those numbers are not taking intoo account the digital sales

 

Most (almost all) people bought digital copies...

 

On top of that, we have allways known that ESO aims fully at the console market and that the PC market is only a aftertought and an open world testing environment.

 

 

 

On top of that... Forbes is still trying to proof their point.....  Its not objective journalisme, if you try everything to proof your PoV...

SpottyGekko

Oh noes, some people on teh interwebz says that ESO will not survive !

 

Even though I'm really enjoying the game, I should stop playing immediately because the game is going to die... at some unspecified time in the future...

 

grapevine

I'd call them something, but it wouldn't be that this is remotely accurate.   Just incomplete stats.

 

No point guessing and I'd dare say there will be something official soon, either way.

Squishydew

I know quite a few people and i know literally no one that still purchases physical copies of PC games.

Digital sales could be 10 times as much as boxed copy sales for all i know.

 

I don't really care for ESO personally, but It seems to do pretty well from what i hear, read and see.

paparios

Worse than sales (i don't know so i dont comment the number) is that ppl loosing their interest for the game fast. If you see xfire + raptr numbers (not as total subs, but the trend of those who play the game) you will see a fast drop in every day playing hours. i have never seen so radical drop in a newly launched game ever again. I don't care if the game is good or bad but the decline in numbers is huge.

Maelwydd

Originally posted by paparios
Worse than sales (i don't know so i dont comment the number) is that ppl loosing their interest for the game fast. If you see xfire + raptr numbers (not as total subs, but the trend of those who play the game) you will see a fast drop in every day playing hours. i have never seen so radical drop in a newly launched game ever again. I don't care if the game is good or bad but the decline in numbers is huge.

Do many people use xfire or raptr (to be honest never heard of raptr)? Does an average gamer use them? I guess the kind of person to use these things (not really sure what they actually are) is not to be classed as a normal gamer.

Distopia

At this point I"ve seen it enough to know exactly what's going to go down, it doesn't matter what happens unless they're giving it away completely free or have 10 million subs, they're never doing anything right. IF it does go F2P we'll still see these threads, doesn't matter how many are playing, they'll still be doing it wrong. Hence why I typically give little thought on the subject at hand as it applies here. the powers of speculation...there's no point in arguing about the hypothetical.

Karteli

It's OK.  I know you all just want to repeat what everyone else says about digital sales. But they are included.  You can read VGChartz's manifest and you can evaluate the final numbers when they were updated.

 

You can also observe Xfire if you are in denial. 

 

#23?  And SWTOR is #15,,,, call conspiracy all you wish (http://www.xfire.com/games) .. but ESO PC sales were not so hot.

 

That source will never give an exact number of players but it is useful for trending.  And ESO is trending low.

 

Zenimax never gave numbers?  I wonder why?

 

All I'm saying is that the console sales will be better .. maybe?

Gorilla

I think that on the whole the console crowd are less forgiving. I'm talking bugs and other irritants. A lot depends on how they deal with those. At the moment there really are way too many fatal ones (for Xenimax). They are fixing your bank being trashed and skill points being lost in this patch though in the past it has taken more than one go (mail dupes, NPCs not spawning, other quest blockers). The one that worries me is the weapon switch not working or having a random delay, skills not firing or lagging, ultimate draining with no effect etc. I think there are fundamental issues that will take big architectural changes to fix. It's far worse than SWTOR in this regard (combat fluidity) and that suffered because of it. It is enjoyable and frustrating as f*ck almost in equal measure.

paparios

Originally posted by Maelwydd

Originally posted by paparios
Worse than sales (i don't know so i dont comment the number) is that ppl loosing their interest for the game fast. If you see xfire + raptr numbers (not as total subs, but the trend of those who play the game) you will see a fast drop in every day playing hours. i have never seen so radical drop in a newly launched game ever again. I don't care if the game is good or bad but the decline in numbers is huge.

Do many people use xfire or raptr (to be honest never heard of raptr)? Does an average gamer use them? I guess the kind of person to use these things (not really sure what they actually are) is not to be classed as a normal gamer.

 

Raptr tracks maybe more than 30m ppls playing hours.

Anyway i m not saying those programs shows anyhting about total numbers or subs in a game, but the trend of those who already play it and use these programs. The numbers shows a radical decline of their interest in every days playing hours. About total numbers & subs we can only be sure if ZEN announce them, but the trend of the ppl can be shown from these programs.

MamasGun

Hm, this is an interesting post- thank you!  I literally just read this article yesterday:

http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/09/console-crisis/

Basically, it outlines the decline of console sales, from XBone/P$4/Wii-U to earlier GC/Xbox/PS2.  Granted most of these are still freshly released, and this is an online article, so your mileage may vary in your agreement with it. 

The long and veiny of it (heh) is that, because of the decline in the economy, and the lack of variety of decent games per system+their ever increasing price for both development and distribution, the consoles aren't selling (at least) as qucikly as they used to.  PC/Mobile gaming is up, due to the ease of access and increased development for these platforms.  

I, personally, think ESO might have a better chance on consoles.  Simply because there are some people that are strictly Console Gamers, and that's just how they know ESO.  I also believe that whilst it may increase with consoles, honestly- I feel the ones remaining in ESO, if it lasts for years, will be PC people.  I could be wrong, it's my speculation, but I know how dedicated PC people are- that's why there are SO many mods for SO many old games....

As with anything, only time will tell, and it will be interesting to sit back and watch in the meantime.

Off Topic: Spirit Science?  Thought I was the only one into that... really interesting stuff.

BetaBlocka

Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

Those numbers are not taking intoo account the digital sales

 

Most (almost all) people bought digital copies...

 

On top of that, we have allways known that ESO aims fully at the console market and that the PC market is only a aftertought and an open world testing environment.

 

 

 

On top of that... Forbes is still trying to proof their point.....  Its not objective journalisme, if you try everything to proof your PoV...

As I understand it, VGZ now does include digital sales as well as physical sales, which is also stated in the OP. Appreciate that may have been an edit you did not see when reading the OP though

grapevine

The problem is you are trying too hard to have a negative view and its obvious.  You are clearly on the hunt to find anything.  Seriously why bother?  XFire is hardly used and the stats are based on vastly incomplete data.

 

The game may have sold badly and it may not have.  However please don't try to come across as one way or another being fact, as you (and everyone else) doesn't know.

paparios

Originally posted by grapevine

The problem is you are trying too hard to have a negative view and its obvious.  You are clearly on the hunt to find anything.  Seriously why bother?  XFire is hardly used and the stats are based on vastly incomplete data.

 

The game may have sold badly and it may not have.  However please don't try to come across as one way or another being fact, as you (and everyone else) doesn't know.

Raptr tracks maybe more than 30m ppls playing hours.

Anyway those programs may not show anyhting about total numbers or subs in a game, but the trend of those who already play it and use these programs. The numbers shows a radical decline of their interest in every days playing hours. About total numbers & subs we can only be sure if ZEN announce them, but the trend of the ppl can be shown from these programs.

keithian

[mod edit] All I know is that the two guilds I am in continue to rapidly increase in size with most active on a daily basis. That is more telling than these partial picture numbers that mean very little.

amber-r

The VGchartz numbers are based on 1 single days sales.

 

ESO came out on the 4th and those sales are listed on the 5th.

paparios

Originally posted by amber-r

The VGchartz numbers are based on 1 single days sales.

 

ESO came out on the 4th and those sales are listed on the 5th.

 

+ pre orders

MamasGun

Originally posted by keithian
[mod edit]  All I know is that the two guilds I am in continue to rapidly increase in size with most active on a daily basis. That is more telling than these partial picture numbers that mean very little.

I will say, I agree with you.  If you, and anyone else, is enjoying a game (any game), the sales figures really shouldn't matter.  I mean, that's why we play games, right?  For the fun, not the popularity? 

I don't think ESO will flop.  I also don't feel like it will overtake, say, WoW or SWTOR.  It will find it's crowd- it already exists.

Reizla

Originally posted by paparios

Originally posted by amber-r

The VGchartz numbers are based on 1 single days sales.

 

ESO came out on the 4th and those sales are listed on the 5th.

 

+ pre orders

VGChartz is not listing pre-orders. I checked on Wildstar and that's still ZERO sales. If VGchartz included pre-orders then Whildstar should have shown numbers by now...

Karteli

Originally posted by amber-r

The VGchartz numbers are based on 1 single days sales.

 

ESO came out on the 4th and those sales are listed on the 5th.

They are to date.

 

Unless, of course, you think all these Super Mario Bros games sold just today also?

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=super+mario

 

Dang Super Mario Bros 3 sold 17 million copies today?

 

ps - yeah you can type stuff in the search bar to find old sales.

Reizla

Originally posted by Karteli

excerpt:

I’m not sure if it’s arrogance, the idea that people love the Elder Scrolls so much they’ll pay $60 for a box copy and $180 a year to play TESO, but it’s bad business sense at the very least. It’s not only subscription fees that are becoming out of fashion, but the very concept of huge budget, AAA MMOs in general. I thought SWTOR was the final object lesson any other studio would need to scale back whatever future plans they had for their own expensive MMO attempts, but it appears that lesson didn’t sink in for TESO, and they may end up paying the price for it

Following the logic of Frobes' excerpt also means that FFXIV:ARR would fail (which it didn't), Wildstar will fail and WoW will fail this year as well

grapevine

Originally posted by paparios

Originally posted by grapevine

The problem is you are trying too hard to have a negative view and its obvious.  You are clearly on the hunt to find anything.  Seriously why bother?  XFire is hardly used and the stats are based on vastly incomplete data.

 

The game may have sold badly and it may not have.  However please don't try to come across as one way or another being fact, as you (and everyone else) doesn't know.

Raptr tracks maybe more than 30m ppls playing hours.

Anyway those programs may not show anyhting about total numbers or subs in a game, but the trend of those who already play it and use these programs. The numbers shows a radical decline of their interest in every days playing hours. About total numbers & subs we can only be sure if ZEN announce them, but the trend of the ppl can be shown from these programs.

Quite amazing as I've yet to come across anyone who actually uses them kind of tools, in 18 years of  online gaming.  I installed XFire once, to check it out.  Doesn't mean I use it.   Like most, I'm not interested in being "tracked".   From what I can tell they attract a certain mind set, so there tends to be a common trend no matter the game.

amber-r

Originally posted by Karteli

Originally posted by amber-r

The VGchartz numbers are based on 1 single days sales.

 

ESO came out on the 4th and those sales are listed on the 5th.

They are to date.

 

Unless, of course, you think all these Super Mario Bros games sold just today also?

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=super+mario

 

Dang Super Mario Bros 3 sold 17 million copies today?

 

ps - yeah you can type stuff in the search bar to find old sales.

Come back next week when they have updated sales figures, at least then we can say your data is a little more fair.

 

Vgchartz is not the powerhouse of data gathering you seem to think it is, if you want to appear fair then you take the weeks figures and not 1 day.  I can show you things on vgchartz that skew data wildly.

 

It's fine to make this topic but you should of waited till next week when the actual weeks figures were out.

Karteli

Originally posted by Reizla

Originally posted by paparios

Originally posted by amber-r

The VGchartz numbers are based on 1 single days sales.

 

ESO came out on the 4th and those sales are listed on the 5th.

 

+ pre orders

VGChartz is not listing pre-orders. I checked on Wildstar and that's still ZERO sales. If VGchartz included pre-orders then Whildstar should have shown numbers by now...

Sorry, Wildstar does not have a significant enough of preorders to be recognized.

 

The preorder page would be the only site that would show it, if it has a high enough rating.  Searching would only inquire about units sold, which of course is ZERO since it has not released.  You would have to wait until it finally gets popular enough (or convince VGChartz to show slots 31-100, and not just the top 30).

azzamasin

Originally posted by SpottyGekko

Oh noes, some people on teh interwebz says that ESO will not survive !

 

Even though I'm really enjoying the game, I should stop playing immediately because the game is going to die... at some unspecified time in the future...

 

Not going to die, most MMO's don't do that.  But it does look painfully obvious they will not be able to sustain their workforce and recoup the development costs on such meager numbers.  A transition to F2P is the next solution and if anything this looks like it will be much sooner then later.