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retention predictions

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  • GrummusGrummus Member UncommonPosts: 151
    Originally posted by alexhpy98721
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    VGChartz shows 157k preorders for TESO in the USA.  Comparatively, from Dec 10, 2011, with an equal time remaining before release, SWTOR had 620k preorders in the USA.

     

    http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/41721/USA/

     

    Unscientifically double that for worldwide preorder totals, since EU numbers seem to resemble USA, in past trending.  Add the number back in again for day-1 retail sales.

     

    So ... ~500k game units will sell.  That seems low, actually.  If it works out that way, I expect to never hear official sales results.

     

    Which by OP's numbers would mean 60k player retention.  hmm.....

     

    ps:   PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go.  The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.

     

     

    Wow you are right if they are even remotely accurate it makes sense why we keep seeing all the messages like "preorder before its too late" and bla bla... those messages worried me but i was unsure if its just a bad marketing team or desperation.

    Well, i bought it anyway even if it goes F2P as long as the game is good and i can get everything via the sub fee without trying to make me buy shit in the cash shop i`ll stay.

     

    EDIT: AOC dropped because they had NO content at endgame + it was not playable at launch....

    ESO seems to be stable, even if its because of not many people buying it.

    A large part of AOC's problem was the mob/level scaling they added to combat the Asianswarm, and the fact that 1-20 was so good that everything afterwards was just one giant disappointment. It ruined the "Tone" of the game and turned people off. It's like the world's best cheeseburger, for three bites; then the next half is cat feces.

  • ShaighShaigh Member EpicPosts: 2,142
    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    The fact is that Bethesda, much like CCP, will only report sales and subscription numbers in the ascendency as they are a privately held company. That is to say that they aren't going to talk about that information unless they have an angle to play. Look at how ArenaNet have been coy with ongoing GW2 numbers, yet were perfectly happy to shout about their "best selling MMO of all time" when it was true.

    NCsoft shows quarterly revenue for guild wars 2.

    Iselin: And the next person who says "but it's a business, they need to make money" can just go fuck yourself.
  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919
    Originally posted by Soki123
    Originally posted by Abardomas

    I'm sticking with my original prediction of at least 10 million active players by Jan. 1st 2015.

    This is even funnier then 12 mil copies sold.

    No, no, no much funnier was the pre-launch thread in which Knotwood told us there would be 20M subs by year end suggesting 30-50M sales as an absolute minimum.

    As far as the vgchartz number goes - as always its a guess. That said I haven't seen anything that suggests the game is flying off the shelves - but with digital sales ...????

    Will be interesting to see how Zenimax approach the console launch - especially given the installed user base.

  • MoLoK_MoLoK_ Member UncommonPosts: 307
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi

    I'm using data from skyrim sales, adjustment made to people who who wopuld never pay for a subscription and the adjustement of mmorpg players.

     

    12million boxes /digital sales a good estimate if you look at skyrim sales and the ES franchise as a whole.

    Vgchartz shows current number of preorder on PC at 157, 288.

    What doyou think will cause a such huge jump in sales that it will end up selling 12 million? even consoles can't help reach that number.

    Skyrim is a single player game with no sub attached to it. Stop comparing it with ESO.

     

    How did Vgchartz come up with that number?

     

    10k preorders for mars only. Thats BS :D

    LOL and vgchartz says you can preorder ESO on Steam :D

    Hehe http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/41595/USA/

    vgchartz claims ESO had sold 50k in november 2013!

     

    THAT SITE IS JUST GUESSING.

  • RosenthorneRosenthorne Member UncommonPosts: 94

    Funny..I looked up the site and got this:

    "The Elder Scrolls Online

    Global Total as of 22nd Mar 2014 (units): N/A "

    Me thinks a site was told to remove their BS numbers from their page!

    image
  • LisaFlexy22LisaFlexy22 Member UncommonPosts: 450

    There is no way the 150k pre-order number is correct, not a chance in hell.  I see it having SWTOR like numbers.  Initial sales around 2 million, and subs dipping down over the course of 6 months to a year resting around 500k

  • LisaFlexy22LisaFlexy22 Member UncommonPosts: 450
    Originally posted by DocBrody

    this game history reminds me so much of swtor..

     

    tons of voiceovers...

    first level 50 on day 1...

    starting as subscription plus box MMO...

    LOL - yeah, this game history reminds me so much of Vanguard

     

    lots of quests.....

    People talking in chat....

    items to loot...

    started as a subscription mmo...

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