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Here is a few statements I would like to talk about from this article:
1): "If you’re reading this, you’re probably one of the 5 million people that have registered for the ESO beta, and likely participated in one of our large beta tests."
My thoughts: That is a HUGE number of registerd beta testers, if even a fraction of them buy the game, were seeing going to see at least 5 million starting. I don't recall a game in history with this many registered beta testers. The testers numbers tend to be lower then the people who buy a game, so How many do you think are going to buy the game, if were seeing that many testers alone?
2): "Based on the existing number of our beta signups and because we anticipate that the ESO community will continue to grow after launch, we plan to add capacity to keep up with demand in both our North American and European datacenters."
My thoughts: They looked at those beta numbers and expect it to grow even larger at launch. I'm saying 10 million in the first year easily after seeing those beta registration numbers.
3): And just to be fully prepared, we are adding overflow servers in the event we get even more players on day one than we are now forecasting.
My thoughts: They have a plan to make sure there is overflow servers for millions more on day one if there is too many people. Something I think future games are going to need considering the larger number of gamers we are starting to see.
4): If player demand overwhelms our planned capacity and a queue has to be formed, we will offer waiting players the option to begin playing right away on an overflow server.
My thoughts: They are doing this part right. people don't want to wait in ques, so this is a great option. Everything you get on an overflow server will allow you to bring back to the megaservers. Only problem is you will not have a friend list because its not hooked up to the main database.
5): And as many of you have asked, the answer is yes to one additional benefit – we will offer various subscription discount packs beginning on April 4.
My thoughts: I sure hope they offer a lifetime... This game is going to be around for a very long time.
So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.
Update: Please Read Before Posting!
How did I come up with this number? Heres how...
I took an equation of the entire market of ESO, Like WoW's Asian market, ESO has a Single player market that is 20 million that it can market to, instead of marketing to asia, it only has to market to its single player base. It will not have to try to steal subs from the MMO market, it will bring in subs from the Single Player market. Thus the Skyrim single player featuers you see in ESO.
I took the market of ESO, which is...
ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:
2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game.
2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.
17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.
The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.
The fact that 4 million Morrowind copies sold.
X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)
X millions migrating to ESO from other gaems.
How well the retention rate you think this company can sustain with its updates and content expansions. Also considering its retention rate with its Single Player base as their first MMO ever. MMO player retention + ES fan player base retention.
Amount of global advertisement. Will they run an advertisement campaign the size of WoW's with celebs, ect. world wide.
10 million subs by the end of the year
and then used this data to make this conclusion...
I'm looking at 2-3 million MMO players, and around 3-4 million Elder Scrolls single player fans (based off of the morrowind and oblivion player base) to start with. With PC and Consoles. Over the course of the year, we'll see 5 million more Single players who love ES, and MMO players looking to play a new game, will join ESO on consoles and PC easily.
Its really that simple.
Zenimax only has to do three things...
1. Keep the retention rate high with the high amount of content updates they promised. Keep the game looking modernized with updates to graphics, and continue to also modernize the game systems. Expand on quality of life of game and add housing. Maybe add a PVE Cyrodiil for an expansion.
2. Advertise heavily to their Skyrim single player base over this year, using celebs and any other social outlets. Like they did with the trailer they had, and the celebs voice overs, ect.
3. Keep making the game more and more like Skyrim to please more of its single player base. Something they have already been working on, with adding more interactable objects in the world then previous beta tests.