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Smedly predicts ESO will be successfu and have ALOT of players.

KnotwoodKnotwood Missoula, MTPosts: 1,103Member

I almost missed this one, but the article on MMORPG front page the other day talked about Smedly's comment on sandboxs.   What I found inside it made my jaw drop....

 

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/952/feature/8220/Smedley-the-Sandbox-and-Online-Society.html

 

http://smedsblog.com/2014/02/11/the-sandbox-mmo/comment-page-2/

 

To make a long story short, he talks about how sandboxs are the future because people blow threw content faster then a company can make content for it.    He mentions SWTOR as having ran out of content too fast and players left, and he predicts this will eventually happen to ESO also.

 

 

This is where Smed predicts ESO success well into the future because Zennimax has huge pockets and plans to provide content well into the future before any of us run out of it.

 

"Don’t get me wrong.. someone with deep pockets can still pull it off." - Smed 

 

Then goes on to predict that TESO will end like SWTOR because of people going thorough content too fast. 

 

"TESO looks like it’s going to follow the content model and it’s going to have a lot of players. I’m willing to bet that it hits the same problem that  SWTOR did. Just not enough to do."     - Smed

 

 

I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 4-6 weeks.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

 

His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

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Comments

  • TimothyTierlessTimothyTierless Columnist M, ORPosts: 2,163Member Uncommon

    I think it will, for 3 months. By 6 it will be decreased a lot. 1 year, FTP. Its not bad, just not going to line up with Elder Scrolls level of expectations. People forget hoe incredible the single player games are. Hard for any MMO to match them.

  • osc8rosc8r SydPosts: 687Member
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 3 months I think was announced.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

    His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

    You think zenimax has as deep pockets as EA?

    And there's nothing i've seen in ESO that i would classify as next gen.

    But like you said, time will tell whether he is right or wrong. I predict it will be just like SWTOR, only on a smaller scale.

  • ZandilZandil templestowePosts: 234Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by osc8r
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 3 months I think was announced.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

    His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

    You think zenimax has as deep pockets as EA?

    And there's nothing i've seen in ESO that i would classify as next gen.

    But like you said, time will tell whether he is right or wrong. I predict it will be just like SWTOR, only on a smaller scale.

    EA has deeper pockets but you need a crowbar to get into them 

    image
  • KnotwoodKnotwood Missoula, MTPosts: 1,103Member
    I also think if ESO ever looks like it will run out of content, Zennimax could actually add MOD's to the game with their phasing technology and that would probably seal the deal for this games future for atleast 10 years.
  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member

    So, Smedley called TESO a successful failure? ... love those friendly politics going on.

     

    BTW, EA has deep pockets too, so throwing money / people at the problem has diminishing rewards, as they eventually found out.

     

    All it takes is a round or 2 of layoffs, and there goes frequent content updates / fixes.  The later portion of 2014 will really make TESO's future much clearer, however it ends up.  Who knows, the 2014 Christmas season could be a boon to this game if it goes well, seeing as there will be many watching from the sidelines.

     

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • WarjinWarjin Harrisburg, PAPosts: 1,215Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    I almost missed this one, but the article on MMORPG front page the other day talked about Smedly's comment on sandboxs.   What I found inside it made my jaw drop....

     

    http://smedsblog.com/2014/02/11/the-sandbox-mmo/comment-page-2/

     

    To make a long story short, he talks about how sandboxs are the future because people blow threw content faster then a company can make content for it.    He mentions SWTOR as having ran out of content too fast and players left, and he predicts this will eventually happen to ESO also.

     

     

    This is where Smed predicts ESO success well into the future because Zennimax has huge pockets and plans to provide content well into the future before any of us run out of it.

     

    "Don’t get me wrong.. someone with deep pockets can still pull it off." - Smed 

     

    Then goes on to predict that TESO will end like SWTOR because of people going thorough content too fast. 

     

    "TESO looks like it’s going to follow the content model and it’s going to have a lot of players. I’m willing to bet that it hits the same problem that  SWTOR did. Just not enough to do."     - Smed

     

     

    I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 3 months I think was announced.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

     

    His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

    He is wrong about Swtor, the reason Swtor tanked was due to it's crappy engine, Ilum couldn't do what it was made to do, pretty much keep people busy with large scale pvp while they pump out pve content, in MMO's with a PvP/PvE play model they need PvP as a place holder to keep players happy until more content can be pumped out, proof of this is WoW.

    ESO will not fall like Swtor because ESO's game engine can handle large scale pvp keeping players happy in between content unlike Swtor.

    ESO will do fine IMO, this game has a strong engine that can handle large scale pvp, rich with lore and deep pve content, a deeper then average crafting system that will also time sink players in between content, the key for MMO's is to learn how to create interesting fillers to keep players busy, and large scale pvp will do just that, crafting will also help that.

    Again lets take king WoW, this game created many fillers for players ,PvP BG, Arenas, Mini pet battles, Achi, and all the little things that keep players busy, if ESO can start to add those little things on top of the large scale PVP then they are set for years to come.

  • osc8rosc8r SydPosts: 687Member
    Originally posted by MyBoot
    Originally posted by osc8r
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 3 months I think was announced.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

    His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

    You think zenimax has as deep pockets as EA?

    And there's nothing i've seen in ESO that i would classify as next gen.

    But like you said, time will tell whether he is right or wrong. I predict it will be just like SWTOR, only on a smaller scale.

    EA has deeper pockets but you need a crowbar to get into them 

    SWTOR "took about six years to create with “800 people on four continents” working on it, a $200 million budget seems quite modest."

    But yeah, you're right, EA would probably much rather be buying out their competition than spending money on adding more content to existing games.

     

    Originally posted by Warjin

    He is wrong about Swtor, the reason Swtor tanked was due to it's crappy engine, Ilum couldn't do what it was made to do, pretty much keep people busy with large scale pvp

    Ilum was the biggest failed attempt at a PVP zone that i've seen... what was there to do? Play musical chairs with some mindless objectives that just fall to the biggest zerg, and click on boxes in the middle?

    Crappy engine was the worst of their worries in Ilum... more like crappy design.

    Even though i despise PVP instances/minigames, at least they had a little more depth than most MMO's "stand in circle" garbage.

    But yeah, endgame got boring quickly, and was just another gear grind.

  • TelondarielTelondariel Ottawa, ONPosts: 1,001Member
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    Smed's blathering..

    Coming from a 14 year vet of EQ, I will happily be making the transition from Smed and Dave Georgeson's Brave New World of EQ to support ESO.  I do not like their FreeRealms Minecraft, and anticipate much of the same for their FreeRealmsEQNext.  A highly monetized Cash Shop-centric business model is not something I will support.  IMHO, they've trashed the EverQuest IP.

     

    So, he should be critical of ESO.  For he and Dave, it's a legitimate threat.  A lot of their customer's will be making it their new home.

    image
  • keithiankeithian Los Angeles, CAPosts: 3,044Member Uncommon

    I've said all along that if they keep to what they said, content updates every 4-6 weeks, then the game will do just fine, especially since we already know they are working on some goodies with a team of developers focused specifically on post launch for quite some time. The updates of TOR were too little too late, but Im glad that game seems to be holding a solid player base.

    ESO Post-Launch Updates - New Content, Guilds and Many More

    The game will have a lot of interesting features right from the start but post-launch content is also very important for an MMO project. New patches and updates make gemeplay interesting and stimulate players to play and return into the game. Will there be new content, new quests skills and other stuff after the release of Elder Scrolls Online? I am going to summarize all information we have in this article.

    Developers have a schedule of post-launch updates. And they say that the frequency of updates will be high. They have already started to work at new content to provide player with updates without delays. The game is in beta and not released but they are working at post launch content. On my opinion it is great. That means they understand the importance of such updates.

    How big will the updates be?

    ESO will be released in 2014 and a lot of work has been done. But post-release content also is a big part of the plans in the future of the game. The game will be released with a lot of space for updates. There will be enough territories for future expansions and ZeniMax promised to add a lot of new content. We will see huge updates with new provinces and zones. I am sure there will be new dungeons and PvP features.

    image

    Developers had chosen Monthly subscription model because of several reasons. One of the reasons is because Subscription can help to fund post-release content better. That means ZeniMax have serious plans about future game expansions.

    Will they focus on PvP or PvE updates?

    As far as I know devs are going to add new content for each group in every update. Each new patch will contain new content for both PvP and PvE oriented players. On my opinion such decision is fair.

    What update is the first in queue?

    There are several primary candidates. As you probably know Elder Scrolls Online will be launched without Thieves Guild and Dark brotherhood. Only Fighters Guild and Mages Guild will be available.

    Developers are going to add Thieves Guild in one of the first updates. One of the early patches will be focused on Thieves guild and will bring justice system into the game. There will also be new quests and new skill line associated with that. Many ESO fans will like pickpocketing and other new features.

    It is difficult to say what will be added first: Dark Brotherhood or Thieves Guild. On my opinion Thieves Guild will be launched earlier because it contains essential features that all TES fans want to see.

    Can players influence future patches?

    As you probably know ESO team is always listening to players. They are reading fansite forums, blogs in order to find out what players wish to see in the game. Brian Wheeler confirmed that they are paying a lot of attention to the community desires. It doesn’t mean that if you request a machine gun they will add it. No, they are listening to general opinions about the game. If players request more skill lines or more classes they can add it.

    There Is Always Hope!

  • ace80kace80k Lorton, VAPosts: 151Member Uncommon

    Unlike Swtor, ESO will also be released on the PS4 AND Xbox One. Imo that will be huge for Zenimax's success.The console crowd is much less intelligent compared to the PC crowd. To them it will truly be a multi-player Skyrim..which is a good thing (to most). Let's not forget the majority of console players are casual, so they'll be going through storyline content for a longer period of time compared to the more seasoned MMO PC crowd. So, if Zenimax is able to push out quality content on a consistent basis, that could be enough to keep gamers on all platforms happy.

    The subscription is a problem though imo. With quality F2P MMO's coming in the future, you have to wonder what player retention will be like later down the road. Seems to me Zenimax wants to milk as much money out of players as possible, for the first few months before switching over to the inevitable F2P model.

  • GrahlGrahl San Diego, CAPosts: 23Member
    I think Smed is right personally.  There are people that play 80-100 hours per week...no way game developers can keep up with how much content people can do.  PvP works for some people, if that's all there is though, a lot of people won't stay.  PvE games that work for me are ones where there are a large number of classes/alt characters to play...so games like DDO, Marvel Heroes, etc.  Just leveling all the different characters takes many hundreds of hours, so it takes a while before I start caring about endgame.  Gives the devs more time to put out content.  Of course, there's always those people that only play 1 character, no amount of content is ever going to make them happy if they are playing 80 hours a week on 1 character.  Can't please everyone I guess.
  • MMOExposedMMOExposed lalal land, DCPosts: 6,258Member Uncommon
    I want to save this thread for later. this will be an interesting thread in a few months.

    image

  • tristanryantristanryan Elkton, VAPosts: 233Member
    Originally posted by Telondariel
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    Smed's blathering..

    Coming from a 14 year vet of EQ, I will happily be making the transition from Smed and Dave Georgeson's Brave New World of EQ to support ESO.  I do not like their FreeRealms Minecraft,, and anticipate much of the same for their FreeRealmsEQNext.  A highly monetized Cash Shop-centric business model is not something I will support.  IMHO, they've trashed the EverQuest IP.

     

    So, he should be critical of ESO.  For he and Dave, it's a legitimate threat.  A lot of their customer's will be making it their new home.

     

    I'm a long time vet of EQ/EQ2 as well. And damn near any other MMO released in a long, long time. And i have never, ever enjoyed Minecraft. My sons play it, i do not.

    But i just have to say, Everquest Next; Landmark is an amazing piece of work, and its so well done, i have higher hopes for Everquest Next than any true "game changer" in a long time, purely because of EQN;L. Its going to be big. It was worth every penny i paid to "test" this game. Still having a blast. I doubt very highly it will be P2W, and there is no proof of that. Even interacting with SOE Devs recently you can even tell they KNOW what they have is special.

    I fully support EQNL. If you call it just a building game you need to spend 10 seconds and google the plans they have for it. Sandbox. PvE. PvP. Exploration. Player Economy. Here ill provide a link; give me a sec.

    https://www.eqnlandmark.com/home

    https://forums.station.sony.com/eqnlandmark/index.php?threads/eqnl-roadmap.18810/

     

  • AlBQuirkyAlBQuirky Sioux City, IAPosts: 3,828Member

    What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

    Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

    - Al

    Personally the only modern MMORPG trend that annoys me is the idea that MMOs need to be designed in a way to attract people who don't actually like MMOs. Which to me makes about as much sense as someone trying to figure out a way to get vegetarians to eat at their steakhouse.
    - FARGIN_WAR

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,284Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Knotwood

    His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

    Next gen image

  • greenreengreenreen Punchoo, AKPosts: 2,101Member Uncommon

    Everytime I hear the SWTOR ESO comparison I can't help but think of the human factor.

    Elder Scrolls hasn't had a game that ticked off their fans. When I think about the way people talk about how SWG was spoiled it reminds me that the comparisons for reception are not the same. It's like that family member that borrows money. The first few times you loan it to them but the third time or so that they haven't paid you back you remember that and call them on it. They didn't make a lot of ppl happy with SWG then eventually shut it down and made more unhappy.

    The two games don't seem to me to have the same player sentiment going on. I know a couple who was really ticked off about SWG and they never said that they were playing SWTOR so people do remember past games.

    Plus SOE has ticked lots of people off lots of ways because they carry multiple games, whether it was not fixing Vanguard or cold receptions for the Station Pass offerings. In comparison this company has not had the history with MMO gamers - this is one of their first ventures so they don't have all the stigma attached to them.

    What they do have following them is a core group of fans who sometimes hold lore against them and stand on principles of it but when you write the lore, you can adjust that however you need to. Then there are the unrealistic people who think an MMO will play just like a single player but they just need time to understand the way it works with more people around. They will either adapt to seeing others do the same quest or not stick around. But neither of these groups have any hatred from previous games or company decisions that I've heard about like SOE does.

    To me, this guy should dream of being in the position ESO is because they don't have years of ppl mad at them so comparing the two offerings is laughable.

    If this guy thinks I don't play SWTOR because it doesn't have enough content, he's completely wrong. I didn't like SWTOR because a movie studio was behind it and I know they blow budgets and only care about graphics, the amount of end-game content had nothing to do with it. Plus it was a space game and I have pictures of real space, my desktop is a picture from space. I want to see a different sort of fantasy land. The other reason I don't play SOE games - they are all F2P. They have a reputation now for me, see their name, know it's not going to be sub, turn around and go elsewhere.

  • laokokolaokoko TaipeiPosts: 2,003Member
    I think he should do a better job at his own game before talking smack about other games.
  • MikeBMikeB MMORPG.com Community Manager Queens, NYPosts: 5,724Administrator Uncommon

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but no developer can keep up with the content needs of a themepark game. The same will be true for ESO and for WildStar. The way these games work out is to have other compelling reasons to continue playing aside from just consuming content. For ESO, this likely rests on Cyrodiil. For WS, possibly super tough endgame content and maybe PvP offerings in Warplots and such. Keep in mind that even these are potentially big 'ifs', especially with a subscription tacked on.

    SOE's refocusing to sandbox games has to do with the fact that systems keep players engaged for far longer than new content does.  If you continue to see themeparks, they're more likely to be 'sandparks' like ArcheAge or EQ Next. Games with a focus on systems, but with some level of developer created content layered on top.

    SWTOR's inability to keep up with content consumption wasn't for a lack of resources. They had an insanely huge team (both pre and post launch) and a huge budget. They simply underestimated how long it would take for people to churn through the content they made. I think they pegged it at three months when it was more like a month or a month and a half.

    I'll be playing ESO come launch, but I have no delusions about what 30 days later will look like for people who are primarily interested in consuming content. For anyone not captivated by Cyrodiil, I'm expecting a whole lot of, "Finished 50++! What do I do now?!" posts unless Adventure Zones end up being compelling enough to pad that out a bit.

    Michael "MikeB" Bitton
    Community Manager
    Twitter: @eMikeB

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,284Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by AlBQuirky

    What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

    Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

    He said it was going to do a swtor, sell a lot and lose a lot due to lack of content. 

  • osc8rosc8r SydPosts: 687Member
    Originally posted by AlBQuirky

    What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

    Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

    FYI, Smedley doesn't work for Zenimax, so ESO isn't his game but one of his competitors. And yes, there are plenty of business's out their that aren't afraid to slag off their competition... though in this case i'd say he's just making a educated guess/prediction.

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,284Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by osc8r
    Originally posted by AlBQuirky

    What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

    Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

    FYI, Smedley doesn't work for Zenimax, so ESO isn't his game but one of his competitors. And yes, there are plenty of business's out their that aren't afraid to slag off their competition.

    He also said that it would do a swtor, sell a lot, lose a lot.

     

    The thread title is very misleading. A half truth.

  • DraemosDraemos Antartica, AKPosts: 1,469Member
    RvR is extremely well done and will give a lot of reprieve for gaps between content releases. 
  • GuyClinchGuyClinch Sunnyvale, CAPosts: 485Member

    No developer can make content fast enough to keep up with theme park addicts. This is absolutely true. The second part of the statement is that no 'real' sandbox game has content interesting enough to attract the wide following that theme parks do.

    WoW has 7.8 million accounts - Eve has 500k. Its true that most of those WoW players haven't been there since Vanilla and even if they haven't been there they are playing regularly. But they draw of a good theme park game is much stronger then a real sandbox game.

    With sandbox you have to make your own fun. With a themepark game - its right there for the taking. People want to be entertained - not have a second career as a game designer.

  • greenreengreenreen Punchoo, AKPosts: 2,101Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by GuyClinch

    No developer can make content fast enough to keep up with theme park addicts. This is absolutely true. The second part of the statement is that no 'real' sandbox game has content interesting enough to attract the wide following that theme parks do.

    ,,,snip

    True, that's why ppl came up with that content locust term. They devour then move on.

    I think that's why a lot of us keep suggesting housing to them as a future thing. It gives you more sandbox to play inside and any stuff you get roaming around you have ownership somewhere to dump it.

    I wondered when I saw "trophy" on a fish if that was a pre-cursor in planning but it's probably not related but knowing they've made a category for trophies is a good start.

    They've also got hundreds of books for people to collect. Get bored, read a story you collected, maybe it will alert your spidey senses to something to find.

  • reeereeereeereee Posts: 1,206Member Uncommon
    As I understand it there is no distinction between PvP gear and PvE gear, which will make traditional progression style raiding impossible with out the PvPers freaking out because the best PvP gear is only available from PvE, and since it's shaping up to be a PvP centric game that seems unlikely.
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