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"2013 MMO earnings show World of Warcraft needs to switch to free-to-play model"

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  • daltaniousdaltanious Member UncommonPosts: 2,381
    Originally posted by nariusseldon

    http://www.gamezone.com/news/2014/01/21/2013-mmo-earnings-show-world-of-warcraft-needs-to-switch-to-free-to-play-model

    "revenue generated from free-to-play massive multiplayer online (MMO) games increased 45 percent in 2013. The free-to-play games category totaled $2.89 billion in sales in 2013, up from the 1.99 billion in 2012."

    "Subscription-based, or pay-to-play, MMO games meanwhile saw their yearly totals drop 19 percent year-over-year. The pay-to-play category accounted for just $1.2 billion in sales in 2013."

    "Although Blizzard has yet to fully make the jump, they have slowly started to introduce more and more in-game microtransactions. In fact, according to the same report, World of Warcraft generated $213 million in microtransactions in 2013 worldwide. Not bad for a game that turns 10 this year. Will 2013 be the end of the subscription-based World of Warcraft as we know it?"

    Khm... much more people eat cheap, unhealthy junk food at junk vendors .... then those that prefer eating good, quality food. For price of course. Does this make junk food better? Of course not. So wow being f2p will never ever happen. It rapresents very good food for convenient price.

  • sportsfansportsfan Member Posts: 431

    In the LONG run, the subscription model - if sustained - is far better for MMORPG's because of their extreme costs to develop worlds...

    But Blizzard knows this, so they are now going into the free to play market with much BETTER adapted products for free to play.

    Hearthstone is but the first of a long series of games around the Blizzard franchised characters.

    A card game is easy to maintain and produce and so selling a pack of boosters is much more in line with "free to play" stuff.

    So on the one hand WOW will be subscription based for a long long time while they will make other "WOW like" games which will use the free to play model.

     

    And today's fincancial earnings call of ATVI already proved my case.

    I don' care about the subscription numbers, it is the $$$$ that counts and HS is simply the better solution than a free to play WOW, both for players as for Blizzard as for stock holders like me.

  • CecropiaCecropia Member RarePosts: 3,985
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Fdzzaigl

    Purely money-wise, perhaps. But there's also such a thing as fidelity towards your customers.

    I do not believe Blizzard will risk pissing off their fanbase by changing their business model out of the blue.

    You mean selling more in the cash shop, making F2P games, and making part of WoW free is not changing their business model?

    Mr. Seldon, it's strikes me as odd that you have not yet made an appearance in this thread or in this one. They seem to be right up your alley considering your ongoing mission. 

    Why the no show?

    "Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  • JagaridJagarid Member UncommonPosts: 415

    Data in the original post is completely irrelevant without also listing how many Games are in each category.

    How much income was made PER GAME?
    Has there been a decline in p2p vs. f2p games on the market?

    Both of those questions are essential to CORRECTLY interpreting the data that was provided. Without that information OP is just meaningless spin put forth to give the illusion that p2p is less profitable than f2p without actually providing enough data for that conclusion.

    For those who have trouble thinking logically... what I am saying is that if Ten sub based games made 1 billion dollars combined and 100 f2p games made 2 billion dollars combined...the Sub based games are WAY better off, despite having a lower Combined total.

  • JorendoJorendo Member UncommonPosts: 275

    I haven't read all the pages so i might repeating stuff:

    LoL and WoT are no MMO's, people stop thinking that. They are online multiplayer games. Just because many people play them doesn't mean its a MMO otherwise Battlefield and CoD are MMO's too, they can be played online and millions of gamers play them online. It doesn't mean they are MMO's. MMO is Massive Multiplayer Online, meaning many people online at the same time on the same place, LoL and WoT only let a few people be online at the same map. No that lobby does not count for the MMO count. And i know there are some smart#sses out here who have turned 17 now and think they know it better. But a MMO always was a game where many people can play at the same time on the same server and be around many people. CoD, LoL, WoT, WoP, etc are no MMO's, they are popular Online Multiplayer games. Just like CoD isn't a RPG even though you have a sort of leveling system in it or do we call CoD a MMORPG these days seeing its played a lot online and has RPG elements?

     

    That said, it seems the numbers shown are including the sales numbers of LoL and WoT's and those kind of free to play games? That would be highly inaccurate for a comparison number. If you wanna compare the income of a subbased game vs a F2P game then you should compare the sales numbers of WoW vs Lord of the Rings Online or one of those many Assian grinder MMO's.

    If we gonna include none MMO's that are F2P then i say they should look at the third group we have, namely buy to play. Buy to play means you have to buy the game once and then you don't have to pay again to play online. Let's see their income, but we gonna count every game sold that way, cause we do that with F2P too, we don't lock it down to one genre, nope we count LoL, facebook games, etc as well so lets see with buy to play how much that earns a year.....With a CoD that sells with insane ammounts and that is just one game.

     

    See numbers don't say a thing when you aren't using them correctly. You want to compare MMO's with subs against F2P you have to do it right and get it right. People need to learn the difference. Because many people play a online game doesn't make it a MMO. Just because many people call a apple a orange, doesn't make the apple a orange.

  • ScotScot Member LegendaryPosts: 22,824

    Just because Nari wants to play WoW for free does not mean it will go F2P.

    Prediction: Not in 2014

    Edit: I think he did a thread like this last year and I predicated then that it would not go F2P for a couple of years? Right so far.

  • Mors.MagneMors.Magne Member UncommonPosts: 1,549

    It depends on how it's done.

     

    I am so profound!  :o)

  • Lord.BachusLord.Bachus Member RarePosts: 9,686

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M

     

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M

     

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    no reason to change their current model .. YET ...

  • AndreasLAndreasL Member UncommonPosts: 5

    i have played WoW since 04/05 on and off along side with conquer onlie thats (f2p)

     

    i have spent atleast 20 times more on the f2p game to be even somewhat competive.

     

    when WoW released the burning crusade they made the choice to (dumb it down) making it easier for casual players and making the game more even for none competive gamers and the very hardcore .01%, if it were to go f2p i can only see that a very little % paying loads more then now trying to be the top and grinding 100s of free players without breaking a sweat, making the wast majority of small spenders rage quit. just my opinion and taken from the reactions of former gaming friends in f2p games that quit due to having no chance. 

  • Pratt2112Pratt2112 Member UncommonPosts: 1,636

    Blizzard gets a guaranteed $15 from every sub-based player in their market, and who knows how much from their other regions, based on the PC cafes, etc. 

    That's guaranteed income from every single player subscribed to their game, every month.

    Why would they want to switch to F2P and turn that into a small percentage of people who are, statistically, likely to pay, with the majority paying very little or nothing.

    Also, saying "well they're already selling other things in their shop, so it's only natural that they go full F2P" is a kind of slippery slope argument. It's tenuous at best.

    There's a world of difference between selling an occasional vanity item, and restructuring their game to make it viable as a cash shop MMO.

    If you read interviews with developers putting out AAA MMOs as Subscription based, they all give similar answers.. from Yoshi-P to the folks with Wildstar, to the folks with ESO, and so on... It's the preferred revenue model if you can make it work with your game. 

    It would be absolutely stupid for Blizzard to switch to a F2P model when they're still doing quite well with a sub model. Even being down to ~7 million players... They're still 6+ mil or so higher than most of their competition. 

    Honestly, articles like this, and some of the comments I'm reading come across as wishful thinking... nothing more.

     

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M 

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    Their sub numbers are up 2.3% (200k) from last quarter. They are down 19% from the previous year at that time. Do you see the problem with using snapshot numbers to draw a conclusion that trending data better supports?

    Their adjusted revenue is also down heavily from the previous year.

    No game last forever. Sooner or later WoW is going to go f2p .. they are already more and more into cash shop stuff.

     

  • FinalFikusFinalFikus Member Posts: 906

    Franchises make more and more money if you continue to develop them.

    Rockstar says hi again.

    The 100 million they'll make off micro sales next year im sure will be counted in your numbers.

    The 3 billion or so they make off of a world sim w/ game and the franchise will be ignored as usual im sure too.

     

    "If the Damned gave you a roadmap, then you'd know just where to go"

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by Torvaldr

    They could, like you point out, go reactionary if their xpac doesn't do well or retention doesn't stay as projected after the drop off. I think if Blizzard is smart they would be assertive in how they handle that instead of waiting for bad numbers.

    And it failed in Cata with the ultimate highlight...the Dragon Soul raid.

     

    Rule #1 in gaming: don't tell gamers how to play.

    Rule #2 in gaming: game balance is essential. FoTM model Blizzard uses to "balance" is a nut game.

    Rule #3 in gaming: observe how the game is played from the trenches, not the all-stars. Tunnel vision is how games die.

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M 

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    Their sub numbers are up 2.3% (200k) from last quarter. They are down 19% from the previous year at that time. Do you see the problem with using snapshot numbers to draw a conclusion that trending data better supports?

    Their adjusted revenue is also down heavily from the previous year.

    No game last forever. Sooner or later WoW is going to go f2p .. they are already more and more into cash shop stuff.

     

    WoW was not built with F2P in mind. The devs clearly said that, but you keep harping on it will go F2P. That's wishful thinking, not factual. Especially after the Diablo II AH backlash, they learned it's player base enjoys the earlier buy-the-box or P2P models.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M 

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    Their sub numbers are up 2.3% (200k) from last quarter. They are down 19% from the previous year at that time. Do you see the problem with using snapshot numbers to draw a conclusion that trending data better supports?

    Their adjusted revenue is also down heavily from the previous year.

    No game last forever. Sooner or later WoW is going to go f2p .. they are already more and more into cash shop stuff.

     

    WoW was not built with F2P in mind. The devs clearly said that, but you keep harping on it will go F2P. That's wishful thinking, not factual. Especially after the Diablo II AH backlash, they learned it's player base enjoys the earlier buy-the-box or P2P models.

    LOTRO is not built with f2p in mind. DDO is not build with f2p in mind. TOR is not build with f2p in mind .. the list goes on and on. What happened?

    Fact .. blizz is talking about expanding the cash shop. Fact ... wow is now f2p up to L20. Fact ... wow is making a lot in cash shop.

     

  • thinktank001thinktank001 Member UncommonPosts: 2,144
    Originally posted by azmundai

     


    Originally posted by askdaboss
    The "article" (if it can be called that, more like a "blog post" written hastily on the kitchen table at breakfast) is absolutely horrible.

     

    It starts with a bold claim in the title "Blizzard MUST switch to free to play", so one can imagine that there will be data to support this. But aside from stating that WoW is still the most financially successful game - not what it once was, mind you - there is nothing.

    Then of course - as the (lazy) blog poster (can't call him "author" really) realises there is nothing in this article - to conclude their piece of junk, our now-not-so-courageous-blog-poster wets himself and rewrites the title of the article as a question - because there is nothing but speculation in this horrible collage of word. A question not even asked properly, as someone pointed out, it is 2014 already.

     

    [mod edit]

     

    welcome to mmorp.
    have you not met nariusseldon yet?

     

    I suspect it is probably his own blog.  

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M 

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    Their sub numbers are up 2.3% (200k) from last quarter. They are down 19% from the previous year at that time. Do you see the problem with using snapshot numbers to draw a conclusion that trending data better supports?

    Their adjusted revenue is also down heavily from the previous year.

    No game last forever. Sooner or later WoW is going to go f2p .. they are already more and more into cash shop stuff.

     

    WoW was not built with F2P in mind. The devs clearly said that, but you keep harping on it will go F2P. That's wishful thinking, not factual. Especially after the Diablo II AH backlash, they learned it's player base enjoys the earlier buy-the-box or P2P models.

    LOTRO is not built with f2p in mind. DDO is not build with f2p in mind. TOR is not build with f2p in mind .. the list goes on and on. What happened?

    Fact .. blizz is talking about expanding the cash shop. Fact ... wow is now f2p up to L20. Fact ... wow is making a lot in cash shop.

     

    Did those devs explicitly state so, or is that your belief because they weren't released as a F2P?

     

    Because there's a difference, as we don't know otherwise they were indeed made ready to switch.

     

    WoW was released, with engine in tow, in a time before F2P games existed. Not afterwards when LotRO; DDO and SWTOR were released (especially SWTOR).

     

    The mess seen in WoW with tacking on PvP after the effect, shows the problems of introducing a different design into an existing game. Blizzard is v-e-r-y reluctant in changing their formula, and rightly so, because if it's not means tested, they could lose the farm. For all we do know this is happening now, as the MMO market is pretty stagnant and seems to be repeating history...

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWiGnG59LqY

  • Gobstopper3DGobstopper3D Member RarePosts: 965
    I don't think they will ever put WoW on life support (F2P).  I think they will close the servers before that ever happens.

    I'm not an IT Specialist, Game Developer, or Clairvoyant in real life, but like others on here, I play one on the internet.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M 

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    Their sub numbers are up 2.3% (200k) from last quarter. They are down 19% from the previous year at that time. Do you see the problem with using snapshot numbers to draw a conclusion that trending data better supports?

    Their adjusted revenue is also down heavily from the previous year.

    No game last forever. Sooner or later WoW is going to go f2p .. they are already more and more into cash shop stuff.

     

    WoW was not built with F2P in mind. The devs clearly said that, but you keep harping on it will go F2P. That's wishful thinking, not factual. Especially after the Diablo II AH backlash, they learned it's player base enjoys the earlier buy-the-box or P2P models.

    LOTRO is not built with f2p in mind. DDO is not build with f2p in mind. TOR is not build with f2p in mind .. the list goes on and on. What happened?

    Fact .. blizz is talking about expanding the cash shop. Fact ... wow is now f2p up to L20. Fact ... wow is making a lot in cash shop.

     

    Did those devs explicitly state so, or is that your belief because they weren't released as a F2P?

    WoW was released, with engine in tow, in a time before F2P games existed. Not afterwards when LotRO; DDO and SWTOR were released (especially SWTOR).

     

    LOTRO and DDO were built in those before-f2p times. In fact, how about EQ2? That is even BEFORE WoW. How about EQ1? How about Anarchy Online?

    There are plenty of examples of MMOs build before the time of f2p and turned F2P.

     

  • Gobstopper3DGobstopper3D Member RarePosts: 965
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M 

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    Their sub numbers are up 2.3% (200k) from last quarter. They are down 19% from the previous year at that time. Do you see the problem with using snapshot numbers to draw a conclusion that trending data better supports?

    Their adjusted revenue is also down heavily from the previous year.

    No game last forever. Sooner or later WoW is going to go f2p .. they are already more and more into cash shop stuff.

     

    WoW was not built with F2P in mind. The devs clearly said that, but you keep harping on it will go F2P. That's wishful thinking, not factual. Especially after the Diablo II AH backlash, they learned it's player base enjoys the earlier buy-the-box or P2P models.

    LOTRO is not built with f2p in mind. DDO is not build with f2p in mind. TOR is not build with f2p in mind .. the list goes on and on. What happened?

    Fact .. blizz is talking about expanding the cash shop. Fact ... wow is now f2p up to L20. Fact ... wow is making a lot in cash shop.

     

    Did those devs explicitly state so, or is that your belief because they weren't released as a F2P?

    WoW was released, with engine in tow, in a time before F2P games existed. Not afterwards when LotRO; DDO and SWTOR were released (especially SWTOR).

     

    LOTRO and DDO were built in those before-f2p times. In fact, how about EQ2? That is even BEFORE WoW. How about EQ1? How about Anarchy Online?

    There are plenty of examples of MMOs build before the time of f2p and turned F2P.

     

    Those games are WoW and never will be.  As much as you may want it to, I don't think it will ever happen.  Only time will tell.

    I'm not an IT Specialist, Game Developer, or Clairvoyant in real life, but like others on here, I play one on the internet.

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

    The number of paying subscribed wow customers raise with 200k since last summer.... From 7.6M to 7.8M 

    no reason to change their current model i would say...

    Their sub numbers are up 2.3% (200k) from last quarter. They are down 19% from the previous year at that time. Do you see the problem with using snapshot numbers to draw a conclusion that trending data better supports?

    Their adjusted revenue is also down heavily from the previous year.

    No game last forever. Sooner or later WoW is going to go f2p .. they are already more and more into cash shop stuff.

     

    WoW was not built with F2P in mind. The devs clearly said that, but you keep harping on it will go F2P. That's wishful thinking, not factual. Especially after the Diablo II AH backlash, they learned it's player base enjoys the earlier buy-the-box or P2P models.

    LOTRO is not built with f2p in mind. DDO is not build with f2p in mind. TOR is not build with f2p in mind .. the list goes on and on. What happened?

    Fact .. blizz is talking about expanding the cash shop. Fact ... wow is now f2p up to L20. Fact ... wow is making a lot in cash shop.

     

    Did those devs explicitly state so, or is that your belief because they weren't released as a F2P?

    WoW was released, with engine in tow, in a time before F2P games existed. Not afterwards when LotRO; DDO and SWTOR were released (especially SWTOR).

     

    LOTRO and DDO were built in those before-f2p times. In fact, how about EQ2? That is even BEFORE WoW. How about EQ1? How about Anarchy Online?

    There are plenty of examples of MMOs build before the time of f2p and turned F2P.

     

    SOE chose to change it all in 2008, as they had nothing to lose at that point. Same as Turbine's LoTRO and DDO. It's change or simply close shop time.

     

    Blizzard has everything to lose if they change their pay formula, mid-stream, without means testing.

     

    Is F2P a passing fad, for example, is a question that seeks a real answer...not just 2 years worth of data behind a paywall of at least $4,000.

  • AdamantineAdamantine Member RarePosts: 5,085

    I'm not exactly sympathetic to Blizzard, and I dont give a damn about WoW, but purely from a business perspective they would be really stupid if they would switch to F2P with WoW.

    The core of any business is first keeping your customers, not first hunting after customers of other companies. Full F2P conversion will alienate a lot of the people who still play WoW, and if it will even only just attract enough F2P player to just compensate your losses from the established playerbase is doubtful, let alone that these new players would actually generate more monetary income.

    What Blizzard could do is of course create separate games that are published under a different company name, thus not hurting the established name of Blizzard themselves.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris

     

    Blizzard has everything to lose if they change their pay formula, mid-stream, without means testing.

     

    Is F2P a passing fad, for example, is a question that seeks a real answer...not just 2 years worth of data behind a paywall of at least $4,000.

    "without means testing" .. is that why they are expanding the cash shop and making $200M there?

    If you by "passing fad", you mean "a growing market", then you will be correct.

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris

     

    Blizzard has everything to lose if they change their pay formula, mid-stream, without means testing.

     

    Is F2P a passing fad, for example, is a question that seeks a real answer...not just 2 years worth of data behind a paywall of at least $4,000.

    "without means testing" .. is that why they are expanding the cash shop and making $200M there?

    If you by "passing fad", you mean "a growing market", then you will be correct.

    We've seen the rise and fall of "a growing market" before, Nari.

     

    Willing to stake a claim on it 4 years from now on "freebie" data, instead?

     

    I would think multi-million dollar venues would want to means test the market more, as Blizzard found out in their China survey after MoP didn't appeal to that local market.

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