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  • OtakunOtakun Member UncommonPosts: 874
    Anyone who believes that ESO wasn't going to sell well and do well in the first couple months is kidding themselves. The game will sell and bring in subs on name alone. Most people I know plan to play the game even though they have problems with it since there is nothing out right now to distract them from it. Most likely most people will play ESO till Wildstar then there will be sub drops for people interested in that game and the others will just sit on ESO till something else pops up to take their interest away. 
  • keithiankeithian Member UncommonPosts: 3,191
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Anyone who believes that ESO wasn't going to sell well and do well in the first couple months is kidding themselves. The game will sell and bring in subs on name alone. Most people I know plan to play the game even though they have problems with it since there is nothing out right now to distract them from it. Most likely most people will play ESO till Wildstar then there will be sub drops for people interested in that game and the others will just sit on ESO till something else pops up to take their interest away. 

    I agree generally what you said about initial sales and declining subs which happens to every game as other new releases occur and as the 'newness' wears off, what I don't at all agree with is the comment that 'MOST" will flock to Wildstar since I think the target market for Wildstar is somewhat different. Even if they did, once they realize how that game isn't all that it is being hyped up to be, they will migrate back...but that is just my opinion. For ESO, the question will be whether they can deliver new content within the 4-6 week windows they are targeting. If that statement ends up to be bogus and they wait too long like SWTOR did to release new content, then the game will go free to play like every other game that releases new content too slowly.

    There Is Always Hope!

  • ThomasN7ThomasN7 87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690
    It will sell well for the first 3 months but after that my prediction is people will come to their senses and realize how it isn't anything special for the long term. Good for 2-3 months and people will want to look elsewhere. At least that is my opinion.
    30
  • keithiankeithian Member UncommonPosts: 3,191
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    It will sell well for the first 3 months but after that my prediction is people will come to their senses and realize how it isn't anything special for the long term. Good for 2-3 months and people will want to look elsewhere. At least that is my opinion.

    maybe you are questing with the wrong people so thats why it doesn't feel special. Perhaps if you quested with me you'll feel like the game is very special lol.

    There Is Always Hope!

  • jimbobfurleyjimbobfurley Member UncommonPosts: 104
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    It will sell well for the first 3 months but after that my prediction is people will come to their senses and realize how it isn't anything special for the long term. Good for 2-3 months and people will want to look elsewhere. At least that is my opinion.

    .... and thus, all this hype will be for naught.

    image
  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Anyone who believes that ESO wasn't going to sell well and do well in the first couple months is kidding themselves. The game will sell and bring in subs on name alone. Most people I know plan to play the game even though they have problems with it since there is nothing out right now to distract them from it. Most likely most people will play ESO till Wildstar then there will be sub drops for people interested in that game and the others will just sit on ESO till something else pops up to take their interest away. 

    You're describing the general behavior of the vast majority of MMO players... that's why I get such a kick out those who don't get it (not referring to you) and think they're being brilliant when they predict a sub drop after 3 months,

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • DrakynnDrakynn Member Posts: 2,030

    These are positive signs for ESO for sure but they onyl used a very small sampling from what i see that may not remain true in the larger picture.Selling out in Australia on physical companies is positive but we have no idea how many physical copies they were allotted.

    ESO will undoubtedly sell well in preorder and launch just based on the IP,anyone saying different never learnt from Warhammer Online,Age of Conan,SW:TOR and hell WOW itself.Whether it will continue to sell well and hold subscriptions  past a couple months is unknowable at this stage but yes the past few years suggest it'll follow the same path as those that came before bar WoW.But we could be surprised.This goes for Wildstar as well.

  • rodarinrodarin Member EpicPosts: 2,611
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Anyone who believes that ESO wasn't going to sell well and do well in the first couple months is kidding themselves. The game will sell and bring in subs on name alone. Most people I know plan to play the game even though they have problems with it since there is nothing out right now to distract them from it. Most likely most people will play ESO till Wildstar then there will be sub drops for people interested in that game and the others will just sit on ESO till something else pops up to take their interest away. 

    You're describing the general behavior of the vast majority of MMO players... that's why I get such a kick out those who don't get it (not referring to you) and think they're being brilliant when they predict a sub drop after 3 months,

    thats the problem unitl everyone stops buying into the hype it will continue and get worse.

     

    How many bad games do we need on the market? Each new one saturates it even more and each one that does what this one does continues the precedent.

     

    The problem is people cant talk about the game and bascially anything they say will be opinion anyway. So others wont care. Until ti then becomes their opinion as well. Rightnow we have been focused on stuff that isnt opinion (for the most part) and can be talked about. The pay gate and pre order gate they have put in already.

     

    But the reasons people are giving is also why Zenimax is doing it, they know they have a turd, and even if they didnt they know sub numbers will drop, thats why theyre grabbing their cash up front.

     

    Like I said the next hoe to drop will be the sub prices those will really give us more information, If a yearly sub is less than 120 bux buyer beware. Sure the cheaper the better right? Not always. If its less than 99.99 then really be leery. I suspect they will have some sort of 'founders' pricing and offer that for maybe 89.99 and a 'regular' year will be the standrard 199.99 sort of thing. Once again putting it behind a wall, which isnt unheard of but just another marketing tool to separate more money from people up front. So before the game is released if my prediction is true a CE buyer who got a year sub will have spent 170 bux up front for a game they know little to nothing about. It doesnt take many of those types, and there will be plenty to equal a few guys who might come in and spend a lot in a cash shop. Now that doesnt mean it is good for the game or guarantees the game will be good it just means that Zenimax made a lot of money up front.

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    Originally posted by rodarin
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Anyone who believes that ESO wasn't going to sell well and do well in the first couple months is kidding themselves. The game will sell and bring in subs on name alone. Most people I know plan to play the game even though they have problems with it since there is nothing out right now to distract them from it. Most likely most people will play ESO till Wildstar then there will be sub drops for people interested in that game and the others will just sit on ESO till something else pops up to take their interest away. 

    You're describing the general behavior of the vast majority of MMO players... that's why I get such a kick out those who don't get it (not referring to you) and think they're being brilliant when they predict a sub drop after 3 months,

    thats the problem unitl everyone stops buying into the hype it will continue and get worse.

     

    How many bad games do we need on the market? Each new one saturates it even more and each one that does what this one does continues the precedent.

     

    The problem is people cant talk about the game and bascially anything they say will be opinion anyway. So others wont care. Until ti then becomes their opinion as well. Rightnow we have been focused on stuff that isnt opinion (for the most part) and can be talked about. The pay gate and pre order gate they have put in already.

     

    But the reasons people are giving is also why Zenimax is doing it, they know they have a turd, and even if they didnt they know sub numbers will drop, thats why theyre grabbing their cash up front.

     

    Like I said the next hoe to drop will be the sub prices those will really give us more information, If a yearly sub is less than 120 bux buyer beware. Sure the cheaper the better right? Not always. If its less than 99.99 then really be leery. I suspect they will have some sort of 'founders' pricing and offer that for maybe 89.99 and a 'regular' year will be the standrard 199.99 sort of thing. Once again putting it behind a wall, which isnt unheard of but just another marketing tool to separate more money from people up front. So before the game is released if my prediction is true a CE buyer who got a year sub will have spent 170 bux up front for a game they know little to nothing about. It doesnt take many of those types, and there will be plenty to equal a few guys who might come in and spend a lot in a cash shop. Now that doesnt mean it is good for the game or guarantees the game will be good it just means that Zenimax made a lot of money up front.

     Was there something in response to my post that you meant to say before you took off in your usual tangent?

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • asrlohzasrlohz Member Posts: 645
    Originally posted by ThomasN7
    It will sell well for the first 3 months but after that my prediction is people will come to their senses and realize how it isn't anything special for the long term. Good for 2-3 months and people will want to look elsewhere. At least that is my opinion.

    That's not a prediction mate, that's induction. The lesser form of deduction. It's essentially how children learn that the stove is hot because every time they've touched it, it has been hot.

     

    Albeit, that won't mean that it constantly is hot. So when you tell everyone that you predicted that the game would "fail" in a couple of months, remember that you just made a inductive guess. An uneducated one at that.

    image
  • Crazy_StickCrazy_Stick Member Posts: 1,059
    In fairness, a lot of these folks bought in blind and once the NDA lifts so they can see the reality of it they might waffle. Are people eligible for a refund on these preorders or is that going to be the source of a big stink like with other games in recent years?
  • rodarinrodarin Member EpicPosts: 2,611
    Originally posted by Iselin
     

     Was there something in response to my post that you meant to say before you took off in your usual tangent?

    Yes how you said they described 'every MMO player'.

     

    You were semi correct but you left out the part that I filled in. That it doesnt matter now if they quit or not the companies have your money before the game is released.

     

    So until people stop buying games they dont know anything about before theyre released it will continue.

  • IncomparableIncomparable Member UncommonPosts: 1,138

    Of course for a game to do so well pre launch means they have a lot of good things going for the game, but i also beleive this trend now will continue and pick up more swing as the hype increases with lots of sales.

    I have feeling that the locust swarms are going to jump on the hype train and enjoy the game for the time being and maybe enjoy the game for a long time coming... but it seems there are a lot that read into a game that has a lot of sales as an online game that is diferent compared to toher online games but at the same time high quality... and they will line up just for that.

    I gotta say I am more intrigued by the game, and hope it much success and everyone have more than their moneys worth. I feel like maybe becoming a locust swarmer but normally I do lots of research into the game to get into the right mind set... which so far I have not done including not playing the elder scroll single player games. Maybe ill read a book they have and see if that does it for me.

    Also the benefit of joining in on the hype is that it makes something as 'smelling the roses' much more sweeter. That i can understand.

    “Write bad things that are done to you in sand, but write the good things that happen to you on a piece of marble”

  • tyrsontyrson Member Posts: 34

    The thing that will give this game longevity is how well the AvA will play out. All I know is that a number years ago a game came out, that didn't feel like it really started till lv.50. So as long as the AvA is engaging and feels meaning full, this game will have a good run, at least till they bring in something that breaks the AvA.

    Why must they always try to fix something that is not broken I'll never understand.

  • KarteliKarteli Member CommonPosts: 2,646

    Selling more CE's is likely what Zenimax was expecting.  The unknown factor though is how many potential buyers for the standard edition got put back on the fence, after perceiving Zenimax differently.  This would keep standard-edition sales low.

     

    Everything can be put with a spin.  For instance, another big IP that got hyped up a couple years ago limited their CE's .. and sold out like 5 times or so, just for the free press releases.  CE's were plentiful after launch in that case, and even went to retailers to be liquidated 50-80% off (6 months post-launch); there was way to many produced.

     

    VGChartz may be useful for comparison, although if I recall it is for US data only.  (http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/)

     

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • HellidolHellidol Member UncommonPosts: 476
    The game will level out in about 3 months, most MMOs do, if it is still bring in new subs at a good rate then that is something I would think even the dev's and producers didnt see coming.

    image
  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    Originally posted by rodarin
    Originally posted by Iselin
     

     Was there something in response to my post that you meant to say before you took off in your usual tangent?

    Yes how you said they described 'every MMO player'.

     

    You were semi correct but you left out the part that I filled in. That it doesnt matter now if they quit or not the companies have your money before the game is released.

     

    So until people stop buying games they dont know anything about before theyre released it will continue.

    Nah. it will happen regardless of the game. That's my whole point.

    "Three months and out" is the norm simply because there are just so many other things to try and play. We gamers like "new" above anything else and we all have wandering eyes. The best we ever do now if we really, really love the shit out of game is keep playing it somewhat along with the new shiny that caught our eye.

    I really like this game a lot. But that doesn't mean I'm not also interested in Wildstar, Archeage, The Repopulation, Star Citizen, The Division and EQNext...just off the top of my head.

    We're two-timing sluts, everyone of us image

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • PurutzilPurutzil Member UncommonPosts: 3,048

    Alright, let me tell you marketting 101.

     

    1: Never put enough of a product out on purpose in order to generate hype of it selling out.

    2: Once initial preorders/sales are done, launch a large amount of it emphasizing the 'limited supply'

    3: Take advantage of shoppers who would otherwise hesitate, feeling something is a "hot" item that might normally not buy it or who would wait to buy a product.

     

    That and since Imperial Edition is selling a race (which btw, is scummy as all hell for a box/sub game) its quite likely people even remotely thinking of the game who (stupidly) don't want to miss out on something (that shouldn't be there) will buy the game in order to avoid missing out.

  • psiicpsiic Member RarePosts: 1,640
    Originally posted by Otakun
    Anyone who believes that ESO wasn't going to sell well and do well in the first couple months is kidding themselves. The game will sell and bring in subs on name alone. Most people I know plan to play the game even though they have problems with it since there is nothing out right now to distract them from it. Most likely most people will play ESO till Wildstar then there will be sub drops for people interested in that game and the others will just sit on ESO till something else pops up to take their interest away. 

     

    Wouldn't count on wildstar pulling much of a market share.

     

    Not to say it may get some amazing sells on the bright flashing lights, loud bells, and pretty whistles.

     

    All I will say about that at this time. Soon as the NDA drops I will be glad to break it down.

     

    You may be right about ESO holding on to subs for an extended period, but that is more about industry trend than it is about any failure in ESO.

     

    Gamers have become a herd of buffalo.

     

    They move around constantly,  consume faster than anything can create,  trample anyone who gets in the way of where the herd is moving, are aggressive and easy to agitate,  and leave total destruction in their  wake.

    Oh and dumb as rocks for the most part.

    Not to mention the weight issue, but not going to get on my gamer obesity soap-box again.

     

  • CrazKanukCrazKanuk Member EpicPosts: 6,130
    Originally posted by Iselin
    Originally posted by rodarin
    Originally posted by Iselin
     

     Was there something in response to my post that you meant to say before you took off in your usual tangent?

    Yes how you said they described 'every MMO player'.

     

    You were semi correct but you left out the part that I filled in. That it doesnt matter now if they quit or not the companies have your money before the game is released.

     

    So until people stop buying games they dont know anything about before theyre released it will continue.

    Nah. it will happen regardless of the game. That's my whole point.

    "Three months and out" is the norm simply because there are just so many other things to try and play. We gamers like "new" above anything else and we all have wandering eyes. The best we ever do now if we really, really love the shit out of game is keep playing it somewhat along with the new shiny that caught our eye.

    I really like this game a lot. But that doesn't mean I'm not also interested in Wildstar, Archeage, The Repopulation, Star Citizen, The Division and EQNext...just off the top of my head.

    We're two-timing sluts, everyone of us image

     

    And it's ok to be two-timing sluts, they'll always take us back :)

     

    Just bought into The Repopulation, will probably play Wildstar through, pre-ordered Destiny, will undoubtedly pre-order WoD, but I'm prolly gonna let ESO stew. I really don't want to give these companies any excuse to start monetizing retail box sales any further. 

     

    When Amazon is showing the CE as selling better than the Standard Edition, wtf? Is the CE really not just the standard edition? Can we just call it that, maybe call the Standard Edition the Scum and Refuse Edition? 

     

    Crazkanuk

    ----------------
    Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
    Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
    Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
    Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
    Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
    ----------------

  • rygard49rygard49 Member UncommonPosts: 973
    Originally posted by Purutzil

    That and since Imperial Edition is selling a race (which btw, is scummy as all hell for a box/sub game) its quite likely people even remotely thinking of the game who (stupidly) don't want to miss out on something (that shouldn't be there) will buy the game in order to avoid missing out.

    Honest question, why do you think it's scummy to add a race in a Collector's Edition?

  • keithiankeithian Member UncommonPosts: 3,191
    Originally posted by rygard49
    Originally posted by Purutzil

    That and since Imperial Edition is selling a race (which btw, is scummy as all hell for a box/sub game) its quite likely people even remotely thinking of the game who (stupidly) don't want to miss out on something (that shouldn't be there) will buy the game in order to avoid missing out.

    Honest question, why do you think it's scummy to add a race in a Collector's Edition?

    I don't think it was scummy, but I don't think it was the right thing to do, nor do I think they should have changed direction on the faction lock without offering it to everyone with their monthly subscription. Regardless, they in my eyes minimized the impact to some degree by allowing anyone to upgrade to the CE edition even after launch and to ensure the race offers no practical advantage over any other race making it in reality just a skin. I continue to think people are over-reacting despite the less than ideal decisions they made so late in the game.

    There Is Always Hope!

  • psiicpsiic Member RarePosts: 1,640
    Originally posted by rygard49
    Originally posted by Purutzil

    That and since Imperial Edition is selling a race (which btw, is scummy as all hell for a box/sub game) its quite likely people even remotely thinking of the game who (stupidly) don't want to miss out on something (that shouldn't be there) will buy the game in order to avoid missing out.

    Honest question, why do you think it's scummy to add a race in a Collector's Edition?

     

    Absolutely not, I mean honestly how many elder scrolls players ever even play the imperial race? 

     

    I have NEVER played imperial and won't in ESO either. 

     

    The real question is, is everyone such liars and hatemongers these days that they will continue to try and make an issue about the imperial race, when their real hate-monging is over the subscription based model.

     

    Personally I have 6 friends that have all bought the CE, and EVERY last one of us feels that we have gotten the best deal/value on a Collector's Edition in our memory.

    I mean most of us got it with the %25 off coupon, but a few grabbed the ubisoft deal with the free $60 game add on. Either way it's hella cheaper than any other CE I've bought in the past 6-7 years even with a 6 month sub added on.

  • AsheramAsheram Member EpicPosts: 5,071
    Originally posted by rodarin
    Originally posted by Iselin
     

     Was there something in response to my post that you meant to say before you took off in your usual tangent?

    Yes how you said they described 'every MMO player'.

     

    You were semi correct but you left out the part that I filled in. That it doesnt matter now if they quit or not the companies have your money before the game is released.

     

    So until people stop buying games they dont know anything about before theyre released it will continue.

    I bought the game and was in the beta so I knew stuff about it, what now Mr armchair prophet?

  • GravargGravarg Member UncommonPosts: 3,424
    Originally posted by psiic
    Originally posted by rygard49
    Originally posted by Purutzil

    That and since Imperial Edition is selling a race (which btw, is scummy as all hell for a box/sub game) its quite likely people even remotely thinking of the game who (stupidly) don't want to miss out on something (that shouldn't be there) will buy the game in order to avoid missing out.

    Honest question, why do you think it's scummy to add a race in a Collector's Edition?

     

    Absolutely not, I mean honestly how many elder scrolls players ever even play the imperial race? 

     

    I have NEVER played imperial and won't in ESO either. 

     

    The real question is, is everyone such liars and hatemongers these days that they will continue to try and make an issue about the imperial race, when their real hate-monging is over the subscription based model.

     

    Personally I have 6 friends that have all bought the CE, and EVERY last one of us feels that we have gotten the best deal/value on a Collector's Edition in our memory.

    I mean most of us got it with the %25 off coupon, but a few grabbed the ubisoft deal with the free $60 game add on. Either way it's hella cheaper than any other CE I've bought in the past 6-7 years even with a 6 month sub added on.

    I have talked to many of my online friends as well.  There are many of us who have bought the boxed and digital CE.  

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