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Forbes Predicting Biggest Disaster of 2014

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  • DocBrodyDocBrody EldridgePosts: 1,820Member

    It will be a lot better than SWTOR for sure, that can be seen easily from gameplay footage already, so it won´t fail as hard as SWTOR.

     

    No one can beat the level of fail that SWTOR was, not even TESO. But it will switch to buy to play and paid DLCs soon after launch, probably similiar to TSW which is running great now and has lots of players.

  • Ice-QueenIce-Queen USA, GAPosts: 2,451Member Uncommon
    I think he has a point somewhat. Console players absolutely will not pay a monthly subscription fee to play it. They're just not that type of gamer, they're the pay $60 for a game, play it til they beat it, then move on type of gamers. I think the game will have a devoted fanbase like SWTOR did ((though no one can do as horribly as the SWTOR team did)), and end up selling a lot to begin with but dwindle down to a few hundred thousand players. Though I prefer subscription based mmo's it will not be worth one. Having played it, I don't see it being a big blockbuster mmorpg.

    image

    What happens when you log off your characters????.....
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMk
    Dark Age of Camelot

  • vmopedvmoped Athens, GAPosts: 1,708Member


    Yea, I am highly skeptical of this article since he basis his decision partly on the comments from various internet forums that supposedly are frequented by long term beta testers...  I have yet to find these forums, or supposed long term beta testers for ESO.  The testers I know and have read leaks from did not get access to a long term beta, just snippets throughout last year.  He also bases the game's success on SWTOR, yet fails to draw any parallels between the projects other than the supposed $200m budget (which ZOS has already denied) and that it is a sub game.  By the same reasoning, WoW should be a massive failure.

    I view this as another article written with poorly gathered information just for the purpose of attracting traffic to their website.  I just don't know too many people who rely on the Forbes website to predict games.  So far last year that same site has predicted the doom and success of the PS4 and Xbone.  So I suppose they can be right half the time about win/lose scenarios when they predict both results... (that was dripping in sarcasm btw).

    Cheers!

    MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S

  • TheHavokTheHavok San Jose, CAPosts: 2,399Member Uncommon

    My favorite part:

    'And it’s important to state that our decision to go with subscriptions is not a referendum on online game revenue models. F2P, B2P, etc. are valid, proven business models – but subscription is the one that fits ESO the best, given our commitment to freedom of gameplay, quality and long-term content delivery. Plus, players will appreciate not having to worry about being “monetized” in the middle of playing the game, which is definitely a problem that is cropping up more and more in online gaming these days. The fact that the word “monetized” exists points to the heart of the issue for us: We don’t want the player to worry about which parts of the game to pay for – with our system, they get it all.”

  • AwDiddumsAwDiddums Great YarmouthPosts: 397Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Ice-Queen
    I think he has a point somewhat. Console players absolutely will not pay a monthly subscription fee to play it. They're just not that type of gamer, they're the pay $60 for a game, play it til they beat it, then move on type of gamers. I think the game will have a devoted fanbase like SWTOR did ((though no one can do as horribly as the SWTOR team did)), and end up selling a lot to begin with but dwindle down to a few hundred thousand players. Having played it, I don't see it being a big blockbuster mmorpg.

    Consider that there are already subscription packages on the console to gain access to further content/services. Also take into account that many console owners/users also own and use a PC for gaming as well, I know I do and I'm pretty darn sure I'm not the only person on this planet that subscribes to MMO's and consoles when I find a game worth subscribing to.

     

  • AwDiddumsAwDiddums Great YarmouthPosts: 397Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Hatefull

     


    Originally posted by Pigglesworth
    Yet another doom and gloom troll post. Boring.

     


    +1. Oh yeah, and this will kill WoW...

    I concur =)

  • RazephonRazephon LondonPosts: 626Member Uncommon

    IDK, he raises some valid points but I think this article is essentially one big panic ejaculation over a twitter post.

     

    That said, I'm still sceptical with how they intend to keep people playing past the first month. I guess we'll find out closer to launch.

    Currently waiting for the MMO industry to put out something good.
  • Ice-QueenIce-Queen USA, GAPosts: 2,451Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by AwDiddums
    Originally posted by Ice-Queen
    I think he has a point somewhat. Console players absolutely will not pay a monthly subscription fee to play it. They're just not that type of gamer, they're the pay $60 for a game, play it til they beat it, then move on type of gamers. I think the game will have a devoted fanbase like SWTOR did ((though no one can do as horribly as the SWTOR team did)), and end up selling a lot to begin with but dwindle down to a few hundred thousand players. Having played it, I don't see it being a big blockbuster mmorpg.

    Consider that there are already subscription packages on the console to gain access to further content/services. Also take into account that many console owners/users also own and use a PC for gaming as well, I know I do and I'm pretty darn sure I'm not the only person on this planet that subscribes to MMO's and consoles when I find a game worth subscribing to.

     

    When it's worth subscribing to is they key part in your reply. If you're a die hard fan of Elder scrolls you will probably do so, but it's not a good enough  to me, to warrant one.

    image

    What happens when you log off your characters????.....
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMk
    Dark Age of Camelot

  • MuppetierMuppetier SouthamptonPosts: 277Member

    This disclaimer posted with the article

     

    The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

     

    would seem to suggest OP is mistaken.

  • SawlstoneSawlstone barrie, ONPosts: 301Member
    Originally posted by vmoped


    Yea, I am highly skeptical of this article since he basis his decision partly on the comments from various internet forums that supposedly are frequented by long term beta testers...  I have yet to find these forums, or supposed long term beta testers for ESO.  The testers I know and have read leaks from did not get access to a long term beta, just snippets throughout last year.  He also bases the game's success on SWTOR, yet fails to draw any parallels between the projects other than the supposed $200m budget (which ZOS has already denied) and that it is a sub game.  By the same reasoning, WoW should be a massive failure.

    I view this as another article written with poorly gathered information just for the purpose of attracting traffic to their website.  I just don't know too many people who rely on the Forbes website to predict games.  So far last year that same site has predicted the doom and success of the PS4 and Xbone.  So I suppose they can be right half the time about win/lose scenarios when they predict both results... (that was dripping in sarcasm btw).

    Cheers!

    I agree with you. Especially with statements such as "I’m not sure if it’s arrogance, the idea that people love the Elder Scrolls so much they’ll pay $60 for a box copy and $180 a year to play TESO, but it’s bad business sense at the very least. It’s not only subscription fees that are becoming out of fashion, but the very concept of huge budget, AAA MMOs in general."

    Its not arrogance at all. Its a new Elder Scrolls game. I have always paid top dollar for my Elder Scrolls games, why would I expect anything less? And for a sub fee. If content is being added and and the game isn't getting stale, then a sub fee is totally justified.

    What is this guy smoking when he says huge budgets are out of fashion? Its entertainment, and huge budgets will never be out of style. I think he just notices all the indie kickstarts and is making a presumption that large company budgets are out of style....they field is becoming just more competitive thats all. I'd love to see the price tag on Archeage

  • PhryPhry HampshirePosts: 6,297Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by AwDiddums
    Originally posted by Ice-Queen
    I think he has a point somewhat. Console players absolutely will not pay a monthly subscription fee to play it. They're just not that type of gamer, they're the pay $60 for a game, play it til they beat it, then move on type of gamers. I think the game will have a devoted fanbase like SWTOR did ((though no one can do as horribly as the SWTOR team did)), and end up selling a lot to begin with but dwindle down to a few hundred thousand players. Having played it, I don't see it being a big blockbuster mmorpg.

    Consider that there are already subscription packages on the console to gain access to further content/services. Also take into account that many console owners/users also own and use a PC for gaming as well, I know I do and I'm pretty darn sure I'm not the only person on this planet that subscribes to MMO's and consoles when I find a game worth subscribing to.

     

    There really hasnt been that many console MMO's, although, when you consider FF XI, and that it is in fact on console and there are quite a number of console players that have quite likely been happily subbing away for numerous years, and how many are also oddly enough, more than happy to sub to games like FFXIV;ARR, then i suspect its the fact that until recently, there hasnt been many games out there that have been worth a sub on console anyway. Thats likely to change, i don't think its the death of F2P, but i think it will force companies who rely on F2P cash shop models to look a bit more closely at how they achieve this, if they want to compete for players time, and for that matter, their money. I do think that the F2P bubble is bursting though, and i have no doubt there will be many casualties, hardly undeserving ones though, some of these F2P games seem to be more about corporate greed than player needimage

  • DocBrodyDocBrody EldridgePosts: 1,820Member
    Originally posted by Ice-Queen
    no one can do as horribly as the SWTOR team did

    this.

    Those dead static ugly planets can only occur once in gaming history.

    TESO already wins hands down, it has a day night change. Can you believe it? A DAY NIGHT CHANGE!

     

    Actually TESO looks pretty immersive, I´ll definitely check it out, but I´d rather play it longterm if it were B2P.

    The sub model won´t do well.

  • Ice-QueenIce-Queen USA, GAPosts: 2,451Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by DocBrody
    Originally posted by Ice-Queen
    no one can do as horribly as the SWTOR team did

    this.

    Those dead static ugly planets can only occur once in gaming history.

    TESO already wins hands down, it has a day night change. Can you believe it? A DAY NIGHT CHANGE!

     

    Actually TESO looks pretty immersive, I´ll definitely check it out, but I´d rather play it longterm if it were B2P.

    The sub model won´t do well.

    What makes it even worse, is we told them in beta how bad the static worlds were and they basically told us to F off they knew what they were doing.

    image

    What happens when you log off your characters????.....
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMk
    Dark Age of Camelot

  • RylahRylah Tribal VillagePosts: 193Member Uncommon

    The author of the article is ... well... not the brightest.

    That doesn't mean he is wrong in this particular example. TESO could very well tank spectacularly, but definitely NOT because of the subscription fee.

    People will always pay the amount something is worth to them. So if TESO is a really good game people will very willingly pay the fee of ONE cinema ticket for a MONTH of entertainment.

    But more importantly it seems that this person didn't get the meaning of "F2P", which means that you either pay or grind your ass off and are STILL excluded from certain "premiums". Everybody seriously playing will anyways get the item-shop equivalent of a subscription and if such a thing is not available then the combined cost of things you buy in the mall is usually equal or even exceeds a subscription fee.

     

  • AnirethAnireth Posts: 600Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Rylah

    But more importantly it seems that this person didn't get the meaning of "F2P", which means that you either pay or grind your ass off and are STILL excluded from certain "premiums". Everybody seriously playing will anyways get the item-shop equivalent of a subscription and if such a thing is not available then the combined cost of things you buy in the mall is usually equal or even exceeds a subscription fee.

    Thats not true at all. The better F2P games, like DDO or Vindictus allow "serious" playing them without spending much or even any money. In DDO you might want to buy some of the bigger packs, but if you like to play several characters etc., you'll earn enough points without even trying. In Vindictus, you only get an actual advantage if you sell NX for gold, and that is just taking trading to another level with the way it works.

    You may also not have noticed that most P2P games do not cover everything with the subscription fees. It starts with the game itself, continues with every expansion, and they still have a cash shop that sells everything from costums over exp-buffs to unique mounts.

    I'll wait to the day's end when the moon is high
    And then I'll rise with the tide with a lust for life, I'll
    Amass an army, and we'll harness a horde
    And then we'll limp across the land until we stand at the shore

  • BetaguyBetaguy Halifax, NSPosts: 2,590Member
    Originally posted by DocBrody

    It will be a lot better than SWTOR for sure, that can be seen easily from gameplay footage already, so it won´t fail as hard as SWTOR.

     

    No one can beat the level of fail that SWTOR was, not even TESO. But it will switch to buy to play and paid DLCs soon after launch, probably similiar to TSW which is running great now and has lots of players.

    Is it really a fail when they made all their money back and then some?

    image

  • Nemesis7884Nemesis7884 ZurichPosts: 880Member Uncommon

    what i think is kinda funny is that when a game announces it is ftp and has a cash shop - there is an outrage: pay to win, cash grab, no regular updates, pay walls - O M G

    when the game announces it has a sub there is an outrage as well: subs wont work anymore, cash grab, game is never worth so much money a year - O M G

     

    ...im really wondering what kind of business model players would think is appropriate besides completly free of course...

  • FearumFearum Cinnaminson, NJPosts: 1,166Member Uncommon

    To justify the sub model all they have to do is do what they are saying they are going to do. Add content at a nice pace and have a good solid foundation to keep players playing and having fun. The end game is the PvP and cross over realm PvE, as long as they are engaging I don't see it being anywhere as bad as TOR. TOR was not set up for the sub model, not sure why he thinks sub model is dead by comparing anything to TOR. 

    The only true test is time, I hope it last longer than 3 months like most games today but I doubt it. Biggest Disaster is a stretch though. This guy is just trying to ride the doom train that forums seem to foster.

  • TheodwulfTheodwulf Brockton, MAPosts: 231Member Uncommon

       Remember that guy, EAlouse. He posted about "why warhammer online  failed" and made a small mention of the coming debacle that SWTOR did become.  Yep about a year before release and so many people said how stupid and uninformed he was...agent of WoW trying to undermine the competition...there was no shortage of conspiracy theories... Turns out that the guy hit the nail on the head and no apologies for the many hatchet jobs done on him.

     

      Perhaps the guy from Forbes wants to try his hand at industry predictions. If he is right he can point to it, if not he can never mention it again. If you want to look like an industry expert you have to be able to predict what the industry is doing and where it is going.. If he is right , he is building his resume.

  • AmjocoAmjoco Layton, UTPosts: 4,783Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Hatefull

     


    Originally posted by Pigglesworth
    Yet another doom and gloom troll post. Boring.

     


    +1. Oh yeah, and this will kill WoW...

    This is sarcasm right? 

     

    Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.

  • kitaradkitarad RomePosts: 1,747Member Uncommon

    Isn't SWToR making money why would it be a failure ?

    image

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Betaguy

    Originally posted by DocBrody It will be a lot better than SWTOR for sure, that can be seen easily from gameplay footage already, so it won´t fail as hard as SWTOR.   No one can beat the level of fail that SWTOR was, not even TESO. But it will switch to buy to play and paid DLCs soon after launch, probably similiar to TSW which is running great now and has lots of players.
    Is it really a fail when they made all their money back and then some?

    Replace "Fail" with "I don't like it" and it will all make sense.

    **

    If you think about it, ESO is taking the biggest risk, and dumping the most amount of money into that risk in the riskiest sector of a risky industry. It doesn't take a lot of precognitive abilities to think that ESO has a good chance of looking like a flop.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • FappuccinoFappuccino ErgensPosts: 159Member
    Originally posted by kitarad

    Isn't SWToR making money why would it be a failure ?

    SWToR was not created to simply float along.

  • kitaradkitarad RomePosts: 1,747Member Uncommon

    Well may be it may not have performed up to the expectations of EA but it can hardly be called a failure if it is making money.

    image

  • coretex666coretex666 PraguePosts: 1,928Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by kitarad

    Isn't SWToR making money why would it be a failure ?

    Because the fact that something is making money does not mean it is a success. You need to consider the Company's budget and compare the financial results with it to obtain an idea whether the producer considers the game to be success or failure.

    Considering that you mentioned that the product is making money, I assume that we are talking about the supply side not the demand one.

    Does this make any sense to you?

    Waiting for L2 EU Classic

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