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Forbes Predicting Biggest Disaster of 2014

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  • MukeMuke Member RarePosts: 2,614
    Originally posted by coretex666

    Does this make any sense to you?

    If SWTOR does not meet its expectations but will close with a good profit for the investors, noone from that side will complain.

     

    "going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  • NephelaiNephelai Member UncommonPosts: 185
    Originally posted by TerminalDeity
    We NEED these corporate cash-grab MMOs to fail. Once they become poison to investors, they will stop being made, and the genre will flourish and see true innovation. 

    You can only squeeze so much innovation into free or a $3.75 per week sub. What we need is someone ballsy enough to innovate and then charge us a fair value price. It's very risky because the internet hyena's that want everything for free would likely band together and tear it down.

  • sketocafesketocafe Member UncommonPosts: 950
    Originally posted by DamonVile
    Originally posted by JJ82
    Originally posted by DamonVile

    That isn't the definition of madness. It's just a quote from a very famous person taking a shot at some researchers.

    And most of you seem to say making the same pile of crap using old ideas is why the genre is dying, what they really need to do is make a game with even older ideas and that's what people want.

    You mean Albert Einstein..............

    And your idea is to go back to making games like they were before the vast majority of players started playing MMOs, because that's what they want. No, its what YOU want because you have rose colored glasses on. Prove it, go back to playing DaoC, UO, EQ1 or AC1 and see how long you can stomach it. They are all still going. Go on, your style of game is still going. And also, TESO is not doing that. They are making a typical MMORPG the like of which has been done a dozen times already, the kind YOU stopped playing because its the same old tried thing.

    Yup Albert Einstein /golfclap. Everything else...well..see the comma ? it's not me saying I want it. Keep reading and it might make more sense.

    That quote has also been attributed to Ben Franklin and Mark Twain. It actually first appeared in a 1981 Narcanon test.

  • JJ82JJ82 Member UncommonPosts: 1,258
    Originally posted by TangentPoint

    What didn't help with TOR, either, is the unfettered arrogance of Bioware/EA in promoting/marketing it. It was obnoxious. EA/Bioware telling people, essentially, you don't know what you want... we do. 

     Basically what the makers of TESO did with their having to make realms to create our pride for us......because apparently we are too stupid to be able to form attachments and loyalties on our own. I sure didn't have any pride issues in SWG or even Anarchy Online. In fact, I enjoyed killing every Omni-Tek player I came across for being the corporate slaves they were!

    Also loved hearing how they had to separate the races by those realms because we are too stupid to know who the enemy is if they didn't.

    "People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

    They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
    http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  • JJ82JJ82 Member UncommonPosts: 1,258
    Originally posted by sketocafe

    That quote has also been attributed to Ben Franklin and Mark Twain. It actually first appeared in a 1981 Narcanon test.

     No, it actually first appeared as a Chinese proverb. "Insanity is doing the same thing in the same way and
    expecting a different outcome", hence the attribute to Einstein because he so often used them in modern language. I wouldn't doubt its been in more than a few books.

    "People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

    They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
    http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  • Jerek_Jerek_ Member Posts: 409
    blah blah blah I don't like subs is basically the article.  Using swtor as proof that people wont play sub games is stupid.  Obviously people will buy and play games even with subs, swtor actually does show that.  what they wont do is play a shitty game for long, much less pay a sub to do it.  Elder scrolls success or failure doesn't hinge on subs fees- what matters is, is it a good mmo?
  • JomsvikingJomsviking Member Posts: 32

    Forbes is a financial magazine and everything in it is from a pure finance point of view.

    When they say 'successful' what they mean is did the investors get their money back with a profit. In the case of a game this means did it sell enough to recover the development costs as well as pay for retail margins, distribution, marketing/advertising ect.

    Most of the money from sales goes to people other than the developers. If the developer gets 30% of the sales price they are doing well. So if a game sells for $60.00 probably less that $20.00 of that goes towards covering the development costs.

    So a game with a development cost of $80 million would need over 4 million in sales at $60.00 a copy  to recover those costs. A game with a development cost of $100 million will need 5 million copies sold at $60.00 and a game with development costs of $200 million would need 10 million copies sold.

    The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

  • RylahRylah Member UncommonPosts: 194
    Originally posted by Jomsviking

    The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

    It doesn't need to sell 10 mio copies even in your example. 2 mio copies + 6 months retention is fine, since devs get, depending on their publishers organisation a larger share of subscription fees than on box sales. Also box sales are indeed as bad in revenue as you say, but the digital download editions you buy from the developer/publisher themselves are near 100% revenue.

    I don't have data about how big the physical box share is compared to that of the digital editions but I would guess that the latter are on the rise. And then there are the extra expensive and revenue generating collectors editions of course.

    So with 2-3 mio copies sold in a mix and average retention rates they should at least cover the cost.

    It will only be problematic when retention is horrible like it was in SWTOR.

  • JJ82JJ82 Member UncommonPosts: 1,258
    Originally posted by Rylah
    Originally posted by Jomsviking

    The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

    It doesn't need to sell 10 mio copies even in your example. 2 mio copies + 6 months retention is fine, since devs get, depending on their publishers organisation a larger share of subscription fees than on box sales. Also box sales are indeed as bad in revenue as you say, but the digital download editions you buy from the developer/publisher themselves are near 100% revenue.

    I don't have data about how big the physical box share is compared to that of the digital editions but I would guess that the latter are on the rise. And then there are the extra expensive and revenue generating collectors editions of course.

    So with 2-3 mio copies sold in a mix and average retention rates they should at least cover the cost.

    It will only be problematic when retention is horrible like it was in SWTOR.

     And then when you suddenly remember that once a game leaves beta and goes live you have massive server and bandwidth costs and then that 6 months to break even, becomes 12....which becomes 18 because of ongoing development and maintenance.

    World of Warcraft took just over a year to break even and start making a profit and it didn't cost what modern MMOs are costing to make.

    "People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

    They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
    http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  • killahhkillahh Member UncommonPosts: 445
    Originally posted by JJ82

    Originally posted by Rylah
    Originally posted by Jomsviking
    The writer of the Forbes article is saying that IF TESO's budget is $200 million, it will not sell 10 million copies and so will not be a success from an investor's point of view.

    It doesn't need to sell 10 mio copies even in your example. 2 mio copies + 6 months retention is fine, since devs get, depending on their publishers organisation a larger share of subscription fees than on box sales. Also box sales are indeed as bad in revenue as you say, but the digital download editions you buy from the developer/publisher themselves are near 100% revenue.

    I don't have data about how big the physical box share is compared to that of the digital editions but I would guess that the latter are on the rise. And then there are the extra expensive and revenue generating collectors editions of course.

    So with 2-3 mio copies sold in a mix and average retention rates they should at least cover the cost.

    It will only be problematic when retention is horrible like it was in SWTOR.

     And then when you suddenly remember that once a game leaves beta and goes live you have massive server and bandwidth costs and then that 6 months to break even, becomes 12....which becomes 18 because of ongoing development and maintenance.

    World of Warcraft took just over a year to break even and start making a profit and it didn't cost what modern MMOs are costing to make.

     

    Of course not, they ripped off the best ideas of the time, stylized graphics are cheaper to produce, longer lasting, used a wildly popular IP, and the rest was history.

    over 20 years of mmorpg's and counting...

  • JJ82JJ82 Member UncommonPosts: 1,258
    Originally posted by killahh
    Originally posted by JJ82

     And then when you suddenly remember that once a game leaves beta and goes live you have massive server and bandwidth costs and then that 6 months to break even, becomes 12....which becomes 18 because of ongoing development and maintenance.

    World of Warcraft took just over a year to break even and start making a profit and it didn't cost what modern MMOs are costing to make.

    Of course not, they ripped off the best ideas of the time, stylized graphics are cheaper to produce, longer lasting, used a wildly popular IP, and the rest was history.

     Correct, and TESO is ripping off barely popular ideas, graphics that are neither stylized nor compares to the wildly popular IPs and history wont care when it turns out to be another average MMO that struggles to survive due to its over abundance of mediocrity.

    "People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

    They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
    http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  • DrakynnDrakynn Member Posts: 2,030
    Originally posted by JJ82
    Originally posted by Drakynn

    The Forbes "article" is not a analysis of any kind and only a opinion piece offering no real empirical data to back it up,the only thing close is the author's own opinion on what happened with SW:TOR,which is the author's only real argument and a dubious one at that.

    Pure horse manure. Age of Conan, another famous IP that failed to target its audience. Lord of the Rings online, another famous IP that failed to target its audience. And neither of them attempted to target console players. Look at the sales of FF14, more copies on the PC sold than on the console (digital sales being highest) and it isn't even close to FF11 back when subscriptions were cool. Everything points to TESO being a disappointment.

    Do I hope it is? Hell yes, the genre needs as many corporate led failures as possible to get their hands off the genre so game makers can make the games they want, not the games corporations want made in a way to bring in as much money as possible.

    Games need to be the focus again, not profits. A game made with creating something new in mind will bring the profits. Corporations only see green, not the product.

    Just because you may agree with the opinion of the article doesn't lend it any factual weight nor does your personal dislike of TESO.AoC failed for reasons other than being subscription as did SW:TOR .LoTRO despite what you say did find it's audience and was profitable even to the end of it's  subscription service which by the way coincided with Turbine being bought out by Warner Bros who made the call.

    There is no empirical evidence as of yet to support the "no one wants a subscription service" argument put forth in fact the initial sales of all the games you mention support a large segment of gamers that do want said subscription service but haven't found a game that has long term staying power to keep paying a sub fee.

    Now TESO and WIldstar may indeed provide data that the subscription MMO is dead if the games turn out good and  initial sales are poor as is the first few months retention  but until then it's just opinion and guessing.

  • JJ82JJ82 Member UncommonPosts: 1,258
    Originally posted by Drakynn

    Just because you may agree with the opinion of the article doesn't lend it any factual weight nor does your personal dislike of TESO.AoC failed for reasons other than being subscription as did SW:TOR .LoTRO despite what you say did find it's audience and was profitable even to the end of it's  subscription service which by the way coincided with Turbine being bought out by Warner Bros who made the call.

    There is no empirical evidence as of yet to support the "no one wants a subscription service" argument put forth in fact the initial sales of all the games you mention support a large segment of gamers that do want said subscription service but haven't found a game that has long term staying power to keep paying a sub fee.

    Now TESO and WIldstar may indeed provide data that the subscription MMO is dead if the games turn out good and  initial sales are poor as is the first few months retention  but until then it's just opinion and guessing.

     Oh the lulz.......that post has twice the daily recommended iron requirement.

    GW2 with no sub sold over 3 million copies and Neverwinter has over 3 million accounts.

    GW2, more sales than the last 3 sub based games combined. in fact, if you total GW2 and Neverwinter, they had more players than every subscription based game combined after WoW. So much for lack of empirical evidence.

    "People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

    They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
    http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719
    Originally posted by JJ82
    Originally posted by Drakynn

    Just because you may agree with the opinion of the article doesn't lend it any factual weight nor does your personal dislike of TESO.AoC failed for reasons other than being subscription as did SW:TOR .LoTRO despite what you say did find it's audience and was profitable even to the end of it's  subscription service which by the way coincided with Turbine being bought out by Warner Bros who made the call.

    There is no empirical evidence as of yet to support the "no one wants a subscription service" argument put forth in fact the initial sales of all the games you mention support a large segment of gamers that do want said subscription service but haven't found a game that has long term staying power to keep paying a sub fee.

    Now TESO and WIldstar may indeed provide data that the subscription MMO is dead if the games turn out good and  initial sales are poor as is the first few months retention  but until then it's just opinion and guessing.

     Oh the lulz.......that post has twice the daily recommended iron requirement.

    GW2 with no sub sold over 3 million copies and Neverwinter has over 3 million accounts.

    GW2, more sales than the last 3 sub based games combined. in fact, if you total GW2 and Neverwinter, they had more players than every subscription based game combined after WoW. So much for lack of empirical evidence.

    GW2 is actually a damn good MMO and stands alone as the only B2P + cash shop game so far. The 3 million box sales is actually a good reflection of its quality.

     

    But I can't believe you're bringing Neverwinter into this and trying to make some point based on it. It takes no money or commitment of any sort to create a Neverwinter account and the only effort required is downloading it and installing it.

     

    Given that and the fact that in the US alone there are an estimated 50 Million MMO players (400 Million and growing worldwide,) 3 million accounts is pretty piss poor market penetration for something that is free to download and free (sort of) to play... don't you think? It'd be more accurate to say that except for a small blip of 0.75% of MMO players, Neverwinter can't be give away for free... how's that for lulz?

     

     http://www.newzoo.com/infographics/the-global-mmo-market-sizing-and-seizing-opportunities/

     

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • ThomasN7ThomasN7 87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690
    When I saw there was pvp in the game that immediately turned me off about the game.  Been playing ES games for years and not once have I ever wanted to pvp in an ES game, ever... 
    30
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  • MiklosanMiklosan Member Posts: 176

    Forget about it folks.. if a game turns out to have 1, yes one!! paying customer some crazy folks here on this site would consider it a sucess! (swtor a sucess?)

     

    Now, will ESO be a disaster or not...? We just gonna have to wait and see... I hope it will do just fine!

  • DoogiehowserDoogiehowser Member Posts: 1,873
    Originally posted by Burntvet
    Originally posted by Doogiehowser
    Originally posted by Burntvet

    I agree with the article.

    They spent too much money making another average theme-park game, and thus it will be hard to recoup the investment.

    And it has nothing to do with which business model they chose, instead they depend on the IP to sell boxes instead of creating deep gameplay mechanics and innovative systems. (Plus it is the company of "That's too hard....")

    That is the problem.

     

    Did you even read the article? ofcourse you didn't. They are just basing their predictions on viability of sub model in todays market.

    It being an average themepark is your own opinion. 

    Yes I did read the article, and to me it comes down to the fact that it is not that people won't pay for a sub, it is that they won't pay for a sub, in the current market for the same game, again, for the Nth time.  Because they can play plenty of average games for "free". As such, it will be hard to recoup what they spent on it.

    Were ESO some great, groundbreaking, super game, it would make back plenty of money and then some, regardless of the revenue model. But the isn't great or groundbreaking in any way, it is simply set in the ES world.

    And that is not enough.

     

    As for being average, I tried the beta, and the game is average. Most other people, if they are honest about it, will say the same thing.

    I have heard that million times over on these forums and yet when a different MMO comes along people still refuse the support the game on pure sub model.

    Sorry been here long enough to smell the BS from far away.

    "The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
    -Jesse Schell

    "Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
    -Luke McKinney

    image

  • BearKnightBearKnight Member CommonPosts: 461
    Originally posted by Toxia

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

     

    Thoughts?

    Agree wholeheartedly about the Biggest Disaster of 2014, however the writer has no idea what they're talking about with regard to "Subscription monthly fee" being dated. It is, by far, the best model out there. However, when a company doesn't give two craps about the content for a game and think anyone will pay simply for a good IP (coughSWTORcough) then it isn't worth a subscription. 

     

    If a game isn't worth a subscription, it isn't the business model that is at fault, it is the game itself.

     

    General rule of thumb = F2P, expect low quality....P2P, expect high quality. 

     

    When you get a LOW quality piece of generalized gameplay from a P2P MMO it just pisses people off. This is why "F2P" has become the fad for up coming companies, but is by no means a pointer that says "Don't go subscription model! People don't want it anymore!"

     

    NO, what people do NOT want is to be ripped off by asking for a box price + subscription when you haven't even taken the time to invest properly into the gameplay of a product before touting it as the next "Big Killer of X". THAT, is what people are tired of. Subscription model is fine and dandy, and is still preferred by the masses.

  • Tr3izeTr3ize Member Posts: 35

    The thing with all these predictions of late is that they are nothing more than pure speculation. TESO is not SW:TOR or AoC, it's TESO. There might be a resemblance but it isn't the same game, it isn't released on the same date or by the same people, nor is it made by the same people.

    There's absolutely nothing in that article that can support the "journalist's" claim. Like with every MMO released the past few years, wait till it's actually released before you jump on a wagon, be it pro or contra.

  • rodarinrodarin Member EpicPosts: 2,611

    It will be buy to play soon enough, more than likely well before Christmas (which will likely have a new update/expansion of some sort as well. Or they may coincide.

     

    People can make all the claims they want about subs, theyre mostly invalid. But Zenimax will charge a sub for as long as they think they can get away with it. Which isnt very long by recent history. So they getthe best of all worlds. they have the guys who love subs supporting them financially, then they will get the people who buy stuff in the cash shop supporting them after that. The irony is the people who paid the sub will be the first to leave once it goes buy to pay or free to play. Game wont change, will probably get better but these guys usually get butt hurt and stop playing on some twisted sense of principle.

     

    Had these guys (Zenimax) had the ability to have the tore 100% committed it would have been released as a buy to play game. But if the rumors are true and they need to recoup 200 mil in development costs I can understand them looking to squeeze 15 bux a month out of as many people as they can.

     

    Regardless it will sell a lot of copies. It will get the same talk after release as it is now. Some will love it some will hate it and most will fall in the middle. But it takes a lot more than that to justify a sub.

  • ReaperJodaReaperJoda Member UncommonPosts: 76
    ....chalk another one up!!!  EQN will be next, if it doesn't either autocorrect its path and learn and improve on EQ1 playstyle and game play or change its name to NOT EQnext, but WOWnext.
  • I'm thinking people hating on SWTOR currently will be hating on TESO instead within a year or two after release. While they're hyping their new favourite MMO they will make passing attacks at TESO and type BS on how much it cost and how much it isn't being profitable.
  • JeffSpicoliJeffSpicoli Member EpicPosts: 2,849
    I agree 100% with whoever wrote this forbes article. Elder Scrolls series has been one of my favorites over the past 10 years and has always been my "offline MMO" so to speak. I have never once had the desire or said to myself while playing skyrim " I wish 50 other live players were in the game with me " . 
    • Aloha Mr Hand ! 

  • cheyanecheyane Member LegendaryPosts: 9,048

    I have nothing against these f2p games. I just feel that their push for you to spend money is terrible in that it makes you lose interest. I played Neverwinter but when I saw how much I would have to grind or spend a lot of money I do not mean a one off for a bag or bank slot but I am talking about the crafting grind I lost interest immediately. I am not going to be dragged into a scheme where I'm constantly forking cash over just to craft some items forget it. I stopped playing and am now back at SWTOR and GW 2. I rather pay a monthly sub and get everything available at reasonable grinds then these insane grinds that leech every enjoyment out of a game. No thank you and it is not because I am a cheapskate that refuses to spend but if you make crafting something I enjoy and every step needs a bought with cash item you're going to lose me buster.

    Chamber of Chains
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