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sub-only MMO further declines (not surprising)

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  • nottunednottuned Member Posts: 92

    the idea that P2P is going away is moronic.. it may get smaller as WoW dies but there is still a huge market for P2P.

    Once a F2P game gets as big as WoW or EQ and lasts as long you may be on to something.

    Some people want to play a game longer than 2 months I know its hard for you to understand, don't try to hard...

  • PiechunksPiechunks Member Posts: 136
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
     

    Why do you leave then?

    Personally i don't play games for community. And i am having lots of fun playing F2P games without paying a cent. But that is just me.

    Some f2p games even have unique IPs (like Star Trek) that you cannot get in a sub-only game.

     

    Why did I leave? I can't play the same game forever.

    You might not play games for the community, but most MMOs have been about the community until recently. 

    EQ, EQ2, WoW, AO, AC, FFXI etc. have been community-oriented games, where the best content was relegated to larger groups.

    Star Trek was originally sub-based game, but was so terrible that they had to convert it into f2p.

     

    From a business standpoint, it's all about maximizing profit (implied from higher revenue in most cases): there is nobody to say that the newer titles won't become f2p like how rift went that route as well after releasing and the Korean imports.

     

     

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077


    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Wow has declined from a high point of 12M subs to less than 8M now. That is a decrease of 1/3. The release of new content did not stop the decline. I doubt it will But of course no one knows for sure. I would bet money on it though.

    It declined due to the heavy gating (those awful daily rep faction grinds that weren't even disguised as a grind); removing talent builds for at least a customized feel; CRZ disrupting realm communities; lackluster mechanics; shared raid lockouts; and PvP changes.

    WoW could have 20 million subs today if the expansion was a different theme and played more like WotLK (July, 2010 had those 12 million players, and we had 24/7 25 man *realm* raids).

    But Blizzard wanted it it's way, not what the players were asking, so they vote with their wallets.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by teakbois2112
     

    Where is the evidence that f2p based MMORPGs didnt decline as well though?  That 45 million is mostly zynga and (probably) LoL and not real MMORPGs.

    I didn't say they didn't.

    I said sub-only MMO declines. That is a fact. The two does not have to be mutually exclusive.

    In this instance "Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

    So actually the number of players of f2p actually declines a bit although it looks like they make more money.

    Plus, yeah .. they include LOL (but not social games). So again, the title is not about F2P MMOs.

    It is about sub-only MMOs, which has a 9% decline in revenue.

     

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by UNATCOII

    WoW could have 20 million subs today if the expansion was a different theme and played more like WotLK (July, 2010 had those 12 million players, and we had 24/7 25 man *realm* raids).

     

    Arm chair quarterbacking?

    You think you can run Blizz better? Tell us your video game track record.

  • SephirosoSephiroso Member RarePosts: 2,020
    Originally posted by UNATCOII

     


    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Wow has declined from a high point of 12M subs to less than 8M now. That is a decrease of 1/3. The release of new content did not stop the decline. I doubt it will

     

    But of course no one knows for sure. I would bet money on it though.


     

    It declined due to the heavy gating (those awful daily rep faction grinds that weren't even disguised as a grind); removing talent builds for at least a customized feel; CRZ disrupting realm communities; lackluster mechanics; shared raid lockouts; and PvP changes.

    WoW could have 20 million subs today if the expansion was a different theme and played more like WotLK (July, 2010 had those 12 million players, and we had 24/7 25 man *realm* raids).

    But Blizzard wanted it it's way, not what the players were asking, so they vote with their wallets.

    actually blizzard DID listen to the players, they just listened to majority of players. fact is blizzard would not have 20M subs today if they kept going with BC/WOTLK framework. they probably would have still had about 10-12m subs though but the people have spoken. they enjoy extremely easy and casual friendly games. wow vanilla-bc is a thing of the past.

    image
    Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today!

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
     

    Do you realize that with only people like you, those games wouldn't even exist? Yeah, newsflash, MMOs take a lot of money to make and therefore require a lot of money to maintain, and developers have families to feed.

    Do you really think we won't pay the price for that someday?

    Yes, so? Whales are paying for it.

    Today is not someday. I didn't say i expect to do it forever, did i?

    If devs are bending over backwards trying to let me play their game for free. I don't see a problem. It is a free world. They can always use B2P or sub-only if they so desire. Of course i am under no obligation to do business with them.

     

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by UNATCOII

    WoW could have 20 million subs today if the expansion was a different theme and played more like WotLK (July, 2010 had those 12 million players, and we had 24/7 25 man *realm* raids).

     

    Arm chair quarterbacking?

    You think you can run Blizz better? Tell us your video game track record.

    Can't do worse.

    My video game suggestion record? Pretty good results. Surprised some were included in MoP (farming especially -- posted a lot about it on the forums).

  • Shadowguy64Shadowguy64 Member Posts: 848

    With just about every MMO going F2P, it's hard to justify buying a box and sub. However, I think FF ARR is an exception and will do well as a sub based game. I know I will be playing.

     

    I'm not sure about Wildstar. I get the feeling (not facts) that it will end up doing what TOR did, sell boxes and sub for 6 months and then make the F2P switch. Thinking that way...it doesn't make sense for me to buy the box when I think I will get the game for free 6 months from now.

     

    So it seems that there is room for both P2P and F2P...with P2P being the exception to the rule for MMO's that aren't WoW.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Shadowguy64

    So it seems that there is room for both P2P and F2P...with P2P being the exception to the rule for MMO's that aren't WoW.

    yes, but the room for sub-only is getting smaller, shown by data. Even WOW is declining, and i doubt it will be sub-only forever.

    I suppose the best bet is an option for sub in a F2P game.

     

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,855
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
     

    Do you realize that with only people like you, those games wouldn't even exist? Yeah, newsflash, MMOs take a lot of money to make and therefore require a lot of money to maintain, and developers have families to feed.

    Do you really think we won't pay the price for that someday?

    Yes, so? Whales are paying for it.

    Today is not someday. I didn't say i expect to do it forever, did i?

    If devs are bending over backwards trying to let me play their game for free. I don't see a problem. It is a free world. They can always use B2P or sub-only if they so desire. Of course i am under no obligation to do business with them.

     

    The fact that you see nothing wrong with this or where this attitude will ultimately lead is somewhat disturbing.

  • OrenshiiOrenshii Member Posts: 61
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
     

    Do you realize that with only people like you, those games wouldn't even exist? Yeah, newsflash, MMOs take a lot of money to make and therefore require a lot of money to maintain, and developers have families to feed.

    Do you really think we won't pay the price for that someday?

    Yes, so? Whales are paying for it.

    Today is not someday. I didn't say i expect to do it forever, did i?

    If devs are bending over backwards trying to let me play their game for free. I don't see a problem. It is a free world. They can always use B2P or sub-only if they so desire. Of course i am under no obligation to do business with them.

     

    Nice selective quoting image

    Not that i dont agree with you, But do you all just post to see your post count grow higher? Seems pretty needy to me.

    Destiny has cheated me
    By forcing me to decide upon
    The woman that I idolise
    Or the hands of an automaton

    Without these hands I can't complete
    The opera that was captivating her
    But if I keep them, and she marries him
    Then he probably won't want me dating her

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
     

    Do you realize that with only people like you, those games wouldn't even exist? Yeah, newsflash, MMOs take a lot of money to make and therefore require a lot of money to maintain, and developers have families to feed.

    Do you really think we won't pay the price for that someday?

    Yes, so? Whales are paying for it.

    Today is not someday. I didn't say i expect to do it forever, did i?

    If devs are bending over backwards trying to let me play their game for free. I don't see a problem. It is a free world. They can always use B2P or sub-only if they so desire. Of course i am under no obligation to do business with them.

     

    Nice selective quoting image

    I don't suppose you have a response to what i actually said? You agreed with me?

  • WightyWighty Member UncommonPosts: 699

    Jeez, another Narius f2p post...

     

    This guy is a digital whale watcher and relies on support of others to carry a hobby he really has not much interest in as he has mentioned in so many prior posts about "I will just move on to something different"... You make the most casual players seem hardcore.

     

    The industry seems to be waking up to the fact that having 20% support the 80% is useless... The games suffer from tourists and no one has any vested interest in being apart of anything because they will just (as you always say) move on to something else. This is NOT what the devs want...

    It also looks like the industry is recognising niche... these games especially CANNOT afford to be f2p... they cater to a small group and if only 20% of say 100k total players are paying, that ship will sink fast... I would quote Marc Jacobs but I have done, so many times already.

     

    To bring up WOW (a game I no longer play or sub to for years now) is just a scapegoat... yes it off it's peak of 12 million subs but for a (almost) 10 year old game to STILL have well over 50% sub retention is mind blowing... WOW was a success and paid for since launch...

     

    The point is... why are you so against supporting and paying for your entertainment if this is truly what you enjoy... Taking the attitude of "game X is free so all should be free", such flawed logic...

     

    If anything looks like MMO's are on the decline for you with the 3 latest BIG MMO's having subs... you can have fun with all the Korean and Chinese weekly churn that comes out... just keep tabs on the MMORPG.com ad banners.

     

    Will probably get TOS'd for this post, but had to be said.

     

     

    What are your other Hobbies?

    Gaming is Dirt Cheap compared to this...

  • OrenshiiOrenshii Member Posts: 61
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by Jean-Luc_Picard
     

    Do you realize that with only people like you, those games wouldn't even exist? Yeah, newsflash, MMOs take a lot of money to make and therefore require a lot of money to maintain, and developers have families to feed.

    Do you really think we won't pay the price for that someday?

    Yes, so? Whales are paying for it.

    Today is not someday. I didn't say i expect to do it forever, did i?

    If devs are bending over backwards trying to let me play their game for free. I don't see a problem. It is a free world. They can always use B2P or sub-only if they so desire. Of course i am under no obligation to do business with them.

     

    Nice selective quoting image

    I don't suppose you have a response to what i actually said? You agreed with me?

    See? mindless chattering just to increase his allready 13k+ post size.  Nari, youve been officially nominated as Troll king.

     

    O

    Destiny has cheated me
    By forcing me to decide upon
    The woman that I idolise
    Or the hands of an automaton

    Without these hands I can't complete
    The opera that was captivating her
    But if I keep them, and she marries him
    Then he probably won't want me dating her

  • tordurbartordurbar Member UncommonPosts: 421
    Originally posted by stevebombsquad
    Originally posted by nariusseldon

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107218/video-game-retail-sales-decline-digital-up-in-july

    "Subscription based MMO revenues declined 9.0% on a monthly basis to $76.0 million. Subscriber base declined to 5.8 million from 6.3 million in June. This was much anticipated due to the loss of 600K subscribers for Activision’s World of Warcrafts (WoW) in the recently concluded quarter."

    9% loss on a month basis ... it does not look good.

    "Free-to-play subscriber base slightly declined to 45.8 million from 46 million in June. Average revenue per user (“ARPU”) was approximately $40 much higher than $27 reported in June."

    Guess the whales are paying more.

    But that is not the point. The point is that sub-only MMOs are probably going to be dead soon.

     

    That is why the next three major AAA MMOs are all sub based: ESO, FF14, and WS..... Keep dreaming pal. Quality gaming is still going to require a sub.

    Ditto!

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077


    Originally posted by Sephiroso

    actually blizzard DID listen to the players, they just listened to majority of players. fact is blizzard would not have 20M subs today if they kept going with BC/WOTLK framework. they probably would have still had about 10-12m subs though but the people have spoken. they enjoy extremely easy and casual friendly games. wow vanilla-bc is a thing of the past.


    Blizzard only listened to frame the design around their own.

    The result was 4.0.1+ from Cata.

    The result was LFR (Blizzard way).

    The result was 5.1 daily grind from hell (I told Blizzard that we wouldn't mind long quest lines, but not Asian grinder style. They didn't even try to hide the grind. It was awful).

  • azmundaiazmundai Member UncommonPosts: 1,419

    finally had to block this joker ... talk about on a crusade. pathetic.

    LFD tools are great for cramming people into content, but quality > quantity.
    I am, usually on the sandbox .. more "hardcore" side of things, but I also do just want to have fun. So lighten up already :)

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer

    Yes, so? Whales are paying for it.

    Today is not someday. I didn't say i expect to do it forever, did i?

    If devs are bending over backwards trying to let me play their game for free. I don't see a problem. It is a free world. They can always use B2P or sub-only if they so desire. Of course i am under no obligation to do business with them.

     

    The fact that you see nothing wrong with this or where this attitude will ultimately lead is somewhat disturbing.

    "disturbing" for you, no doubt. That is the beauty of the internet. You can have and air any kind of opinion. The triumph of free speech.

    And yes, i see nothing wrong. We are talking about entertainment in a free market. It is not like i steal or pirate anything.

     

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,855
    Originally posted by Wighty

    Jeez, another Narius f2p post...

     

    This guy is a digital whale watcher and relies on support of others to carry a hobby he really has not much interest in as he has mentioned in so many prior posts about "I will just move on to something different"... You make the most casual players seem hardcore.

     

    The industry seems to be waking up to the fact that having 20% support the 80% is useless... The games suffer from tourists and no one has any vested interest in being apart of anything because they will just (as you always say) move on to something else. This is NOT what the devs want...

    It also looks like the industry is recognising niche... these games especially CANNOT afford to be f2p... they cater to a small group and if only 20% of say 100k total players are paying, that ship will sink fast... I would quote Marc Jacobs but I have done, so many times already.

     

    To bring up WOW (a game I no longer play or sub to for years now) is just a scapegoat... yes it off it's peak of 12 million subs but for a (almost) 10 year old game to STILL have well over 50% sub retention is mind blowing... WOW was a success and paid for since launch...

     

    The point is... why are you so against supporting and paying for your entertainment if this is truly what you enjoy... Taking the attitude of "game X is free so all should be free", such flawed logic...

     

    If anything looks like MMO's are on the decline for you with the 3 latest BIG MMO's having subs... you can have fun with all the Korean and Chinese weekly churn that comes out... just keep tabs on the MMORPG.com ad banners.

     

    Will probably get TOS'd for this post, but had to be said.

     

     

    Good, they can TOS me along side.

    +1

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by UNATCOII

    Blizzard only listened to frame the design around their own.

     

    The result was LFR (Blizzard way).

    Well, LFR is popular. Why do you think they expand the use of it to all raids after the first try.

    In fact, i went back to wow for a few month (before i quit again) just because of LFR. It is a nice system to let you experience the content without the work and commitment of joining a raid guild.

     

  • ZydariZydari Member UncommonPosts: 84
    I think those numbers mostly pertain to WoW. We all got tired of WoW after a few years, right? Needed to try something else for awhile. Subs will be around for a long time. As long as they make a game that is great and don't put in a cash shop that sells anything that can't be obtained through playing, they can charge a sub. I'd pay.

    Experience demands that man is the only animal which devours his own kind, for I can apply no milder term to the general prey of the rich on the poor.

    Thomas Jefferson

  • SephirosoSephiroso Member RarePosts: 2,020
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by UNATCOII

    Blizzard only listened to frame the design around their own.

     

    The result was LFR (Blizzard way).

    Well, LFR is popular. Why do you think they expand the use of it to all raids after the first try.

    In fact, i went back to wow for a few month (before i quit again) just because of LFR. It is a nice system to let you experience the content without the work and commitment of joining a raid guild.

     

    see nariuss, people like you are the reason WoW is hemoragging subs(that and WoW is getting old, but it wouldn't be losing subs at as high of a rate as it is though), and the reason why P2P mmos are failing nowadays as compared to back when BC/wotlk first dropped.

     

    If P2P mmos were modeling themselves after a Vanilla WoW-BC WoW, the P2P market would be outstanding right now.

    image
    Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today!

  • OrenshiiOrenshii Member Posts: 61
    Originally posted by Sephiroso
    Originally posted by nariusseldon
    Originally posted by UNATCOII

    Blizzard only listened to frame the design around their own.

     

    The result was LFR (Blizzard way).

    Well, LFR is popular. Why do you think they expand the use of it to all raids after the first try.

    In fact, i went back to wow for a few month (before i quit again) just because of LFR. It is a nice system to let you experience the content without the work and commitment of joining a raid guild.

     

    see nariuss, people like you are the reason WoW is hemoragging subs(that and WoW is getting old, but it wouldn't be losing subs at as high of a rate as it is though), and the reason why P2P mmos are failing nowadays as compared to back when BC/wotlk first dropped.

     

    If P2P mmos were modeling themselves after a Vanilla WoW-BC WoW, the P2P market would be outstanding right now.

    Well that is, IF they copied the right aspects.

    Thing is everyone tried to copy blizzards game to make them money. Sadly the one thing they should have copied from blizzard wasnt the game but their innovation. Its hard to fathom why companies, high class suits etc donot understand this simplest of concepts.

    Destiny has cheated me
    By forcing me to decide upon
    The woman that I idolise
    Or the hands of an automaton

    Without these hands I can't complete
    The opera that was captivating her
    But if I keep them, and she marries him
    Then he probably won't want me dating her

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Sephiroso

     

    see nariuss, people like you are the reason WoW is hemoragging subs(that and WoW is getting old, but it wouldn't be losing subs at as high of a rate as it is though), and the reason why P2P mmos are failing nowadays as compared to back when BC/wotlk first dropped.

     

    If P2P mmos were modeling themselves after a Vanilla WoW-BC WoW, the P2P market would be outstanding right now.

    Probably. But so?

    I don't play games to a) prop up WOW, b) support sub-only MMOs. I play games to have fun. If games i don't play die, should i even care?

    If wow is no longer fun for me, of course i am going to leave. If there are fun (to me) games in F2P, of course i am going to play it.

    I don't think you will expect otherwise.

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