back in 2006, SOE servers had over 20 million registered -- with 1/10th of WOWs active playerbase
How many of those registered SOE ppl were active in a game?
It's not a secret that SOE used to issue out trials "we want you back plz plz plz come back for this 1-week trial", ppl came back and left after 1-2 days again seeing the games hadn't developed in a way to warrant a subscription.
SOE included these numbers in their community figures they presented to the stockholders at the quarterly meetings.
I guess they still count me as a registered user, even when the last time I logged in to SOE station was to disable my station account when that credit card hack scandal hit 2y ago.
"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"
Even in F2P format WOW will never have more than 40 million players, so unless they go under 1 million F2P it is not going to happen.
back in 2006, SOE servers had over 20 million registered -- with 1/10th of WOWs active playerbase
WOW easily has over 40 million registered players, probably over 100 million registered including trials
how many would want to play ftp WOW, i have no clue
You are really optimistic My guess is that WOW would triple its current players (subscriptions now, f2P then) and so hover around 25 million.
Why ? because that's the number that keeps up appearing when a former AAA goes F2P in its first months... The problem is ... will they all stay even as a F2P ...
And even taking 30 million active players as an example ... and taking my earlier figures of a succesful F2P little game like Farmville ... only 3% would pay 20 dollars or more, only 16 % would pay 1-10 dollars and 81% would never pay anything.
So in the most positive calculations that would mean a yearly revenue of around ... 70 million dollars IF they would keep the players.
In the last 6 years WOW broke 1 billion revenue every year ... that's 15 times MORE.
So again, unless WOW goes under 1 million subs with a yearly revenue of under 100 million dollars, it will not go free to play.
Of course it is not all money that counts, Blizzard could try to up the hype and player numbers by going F2P earlier (say 2 million subs as the limit).
Say what you like about the silliness of the latest expansions or the way Blizz has taken the game so that it appeals to a younger-skewing demographic, lament all you want about the cash shop selling non-game impact items. But the fact remains that Blizz is NOT a stupid company. Everything they do is done to drive subscriptions.
Yes, WoW's engine is old and, frankly, a bit dated. But it runs on damn near any computer out there. A complete engine overhaul to updated graphics would run the risk of losing millions of paying subscribers who are using older rigs that would no longer be able to run the game effectively. (Don't laugh, that's happened to other games in the past.) Buying a $30-$40 expansion to keep playing a game is one thing. Buying a whole new computer to keep playing a game is entirely another.
Blizz seems to be focusing more and more on the "casual" MMORPG player now, and that's probably not a stupid thing to do. All the market research shows that the real money in gaming is in the casual market now, not the hard-core "gamer." (Hell, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see more MMORPGs released for mobile platforms. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Blizz integrate the mobile platform into WoW. Probably not with a full game-experience on a mobile device (at least not yet), but I could see pet battles, travel, and other activities added to the already-present mobile access to the AH real soon.) As far as F2P goes, it's not a matter of "if," it's a matter of "when." While I don't think that the subscription model will ever completely die in the MOG world, I think we are rapidly approaching the point where any game with a subscription will be automatically considered a "niche game." If you want to go BIG with your game, we're at the point where (unless your're WoW), you have to go F2P. And WoW will eventually take that step, as well.
The next big question is which model will emerge to replace the Subscription Model as dominant. B2P or F2P?
We are entering a world where the majority of "gamers" think a "game" is something on their phone. A recent survey among 13-19 year olds revealed that a majority of them prefer to watch movies on their phones than on their TVs. Casual gaming is the wave of the future, my friends.
Why ? because that's the number that keeps up appearing when a former AAA goes F2P in its first months... The problem is ... will they all stay even as a F2P ...
There's a reason why a game would go F2P when initially they started as a B2P, usually sub numbers are down.
Some issues plague a game when ppl leave, usually it's not the sub cost but other gamebreaking issues.
Maybe no subscription fee might soften that bad experience a bit, I doubt that it will keep a community healthy though. It is a great way to attract new players though, but I don't believe it will be a problem solver for disgruntled vets.
"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"
As long as upcoming mmorpgs fail to deliver wow will have a stable base 6-10 million subs. And the only way for wow to go f2p is some great similar quality mmorpgs to appear so they ll loose lots,lots,lots of subs. And it wont go free anwy if they get at least 800k subs to 1 million.Only if they fell below 800 k subs they ll go f2p so they wont make enough money to bother with it...
If WoW were to go F2P, they'd have to cut their entire staff by 1/3 or more... they are a very bloated company BECAUSE of the subscription model. So until you hear about massive layoffs happening... this is nothing but a pipe dream.
Even if it was F2P... played it too damn much now to see a reason to ever return. I mean really, we've memorized every inch of that game that even blindfolded we still can do everything without missing a step. The game is TOO OLD now... updated graphics aren't going to magically make it entertaining.
I can't see WoW going F2P any time soon, As said above, The company would need to fire a huge amount of staff plus many people see F2P games as cheap and nasty, You pay a sub for something with peace and mind that it's going to have quality about it, F2P games to me and many others are crap.
Comments
How many of those registered SOE ppl were active in a game?
It's not a secret that SOE used to issue out trials "we want you back plz plz plz come back for this 1-week trial", ppl came back and left after 1-2 days again seeing the games hadn't developed in a way to warrant a subscription.
SOE included these numbers in their community figures they presented to the stockholders at the quarterly meetings.
I guess they still count me as a registered user, even when the last time I logged in to SOE station was to disable my station account when that credit card hack scandal hit 2y ago.
"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"
You are really optimistic
My guess is that WOW would triple its current players (subscriptions now, f2P then) and so hover around 25 million.
Why ? because that's the number that keeps up appearing when a former AAA goes F2P in its first months... The problem is ... will they all stay even as a F2P ...
And even taking 30 million active players as an example ... and taking my earlier figures of a succesful F2P little game like Farmville ... only 3% would pay 20 dollars or more, only 16 % would pay 1-10 dollars and 81% would never pay anything.
So in the most positive calculations that would mean a yearly revenue of around ... 70 million dollars IF they would keep the players.
In the last 6 years WOW broke 1 billion revenue every year ... that's 15 times MORE.
So again, unless WOW goes under 1 million subs with a yearly revenue of under 100 million dollars, it will not go free to play.
Of course it is not all money that counts, Blizzard could try to up the hype and player numbers by going F2P earlier (say 2 million subs as the limit).
Say what you like about the silliness of the latest expansions or the way Blizz has taken the game so that it appeals to a younger-skewing demographic, lament all you want about the cash shop selling non-game impact items. But the fact remains that Blizz is NOT a stupid company. Everything they do is done to drive subscriptions.
Yes, WoW's engine is old and, frankly, a bit dated. But it runs on damn near any computer out there. A complete engine overhaul to updated graphics would run the risk of losing millions of paying subscribers who are using older rigs that would no longer be able to run the game effectively. (Don't laugh, that's happened to other games in the past.) Buying a $30-$40 expansion to keep playing a game is one thing. Buying a whole new computer to keep playing a game is entirely another.
Blizz seems to be focusing more and more on the "casual" MMORPG player now, and that's probably not a stupid thing to do. All the market research shows that the real money in gaming is in the casual market now, not the hard-core "gamer." (Hell, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see more MMORPGs released for mobile platforms. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Blizz integrate the mobile platform into WoW. Probably not with a full game-experience on a mobile device (at least not yet), but I could see pet battles, travel, and other activities added to the already-present mobile access to the AH real soon.) As far as F2P goes, it's not a matter of "if," it's a matter of "when." While I don't think that the subscription model will ever completely die in the MOG world, I think we are rapidly approaching the point where any game with a subscription will be automatically considered a "niche game." If you want to go BIG with your game, we're at the point where (unless your're WoW), you have to go F2P. And WoW will eventually take that step, as well.
The next big question is which model will emerge to replace the Subscription Model as dominant. B2P or F2P?
We are entering a world where the majority of "gamers" think a "game" is something on their phone. A recent survey among 13-19 year olds revealed that a majority of them prefer to watch movies on their phones than on their TVs. Casual gaming is the wave of the future, my friends.
Agreed.
There's a reason why a game would go F2P when initially they started as a B2P, usually sub numbers are down.
Some issues plague a game when ppl leave, usually it's not the sub cost but other gamebreaking issues.
Maybe no subscription fee might soften that bad experience a bit, I doubt that it will keep a community healthy though. It is a great way to attract new players though, but I don't believe it will be a problem solver for disgruntled vets.
"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"
if runescape can claim 200 million - you think its unrealistic that 100 million have tried WOW in the last 9 years?
http://www.examiner.com/article/runescape-passes-200-million-registered-accounts
EQ2 fan sites
If WoW were to go F2P, they'd have to cut their entire staff by 1/3 or more... they are a very bloated company BECAUSE of the subscription model. So until you hear about massive layoffs happening... this is nothing but a pipe dream.
Even if it was F2P... played it too damn much now to see a reason to ever return. I mean really, we've memorized every inch of that game that even blindfolded we still can do everything without missing a step. The game is TOO OLD now... updated graphics aren't going to magically make it entertaining.