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Calling bullshit on Robokapp's statistics.. also why cant I post in the other thread?

WW4BWWW4BW KoldingPosts: 493Member
Originally posted by Robokapp 
Originally posted by Magiknight
Originally posted by Robokapp
Originally posted by Magiknight
 
Once again, regular gambling is a GUARANTEED LOSS for you and win for the industry. It's not a game of chance then. All of the advertisements say the opposite.

Probability...OP did not study it.

 

If a mother had two children, both girls, what are the odds of third child being a boy ?

 

a) 0%

b) 12.5%

c) 40%

d) 50%

e) 77.5%

f)100%

g) other

50%. Any other smart questions?

it's actually 40% but for reasons not relevant.

yes. one more.

if there are 37 numbers, one is green, 18 are red and 18 are black, and betting on red or on black and winning doubles your money, what are your chances of winning ?

 
Couldnt post in the other thread and couldnt quote correctly from it... But I wanted to call bullshit on the 40%... its 51.2 or 52% actually according to what I learned in school and what I could look up in seconds. This is due to the Y chromosomes being faster swimmers. Now men dont live as long as women on average in part due to fact that the Y chromosome is mostly junk dna and doesnt offer alleles to a faulty gene on the X chromosome.   I wonder where you pulled 40% from.

Comments

  • LivnthedreamLivnthedream Salt Lake City, UTPosts: 555Member
    Probably because he was arguing the actual statistical probability and not the biology. Its called a word problem. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpvE0Co66nU
  • MagiknightMagiknight McKinleyville, CAPosts: 782Member
    This is hilarious. There is no way it's 40%. I couldn't address it in that other thread either.
  • MagiknightMagiknight McKinleyville, CAPosts: 782Member
    Originally posted by Livnthedream
    Probably because he was arguing the actual statistical probability and not the biology. Its called a word problem. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpvE0Co66nU

    How do you get 60% and 40% just based on statistical probability?

  • WW4BWWW4BW KoldingPosts: 493Member
    Originally posted by Magiknight
    This is hilarious. There is no way it's 40%. I couldn't address it in that other thread either.

     From a minutes of thinking and searching, as opposed to seconds in my first post, I have now come up with the statistical number of  3 girls in a row being 11.6550117%.

    But as they say; "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. So i suppose the numbers can come down to how you look at it.. but is, most definatly, not, in any situation, 50/50. And I suppose that was the point Robokapp was really trying to make.

  • MagiknightMagiknight McKinleyville, CAPosts: 782Member
    It's close enough to 50%. It's like 51% for males and 49% for females.
  • DamonVileDamonVile Vancouver, BCPosts: 4,818Member

    So you made a new thread because the other one was locked...called it what you did...and then agreed with him

     

     

    smrt

  • MagiknightMagiknight McKinleyville, CAPosts: 782Member
    Each event, being pregnant, is independent of the other event. Each time the chances of having a boy or girl are the same.
  • MagiknightMagiknight McKinleyville, CAPosts: 782Member
    Originally posted by DamonVile

    So you made a new thread because the other one was locked...called it what you did...and then agreed with him

     

     

    smrt

    I don't even know what this means.

  • WW4BWWW4BW KoldingPosts: 493Member
    Originally posted by DamonVile

    So you made a new thread because the other one was locked...called it what you did...and then agreed with him

     

     

    smrt

     Hey I just really wanted to know how he came to 40%... and I couldnt ask in the other thread.. besides it was not really on topic. I suppose I could have sent him a private message, to satisfy my curiosity.. But I might as well make sure that the whole "class" can learn.

    Besides I only agreed with him as far as the number couldnt possibly be 50%

  • MagiknightMagiknight McKinleyville, CAPosts: 782Member
    Originally posted by WW4BW
    Originally posted by DamonVile

    So you made a new thread because the other one was locked...called it what you did...and then agreed with him

     

     

    smrt

     Hey I just really wanted to know how he came to 40%... and I couldnt ask in the other thread.. besides it was not really on topic. I suppose I could have sent him a private message, to satisfy my curiosity.. But I might as well make sure that the whole "class" can learn.

    Besides I only agreed with him as far as the number couldnt possibly be 50%

    It's 51%...

  • WW4BWWW4BW KoldingPosts: 493Member
    Originally posted by Magiknight
    Each event, being pregnant, is independent of the other event. Each time the chances of having a boy or girl are the same.

     This is where it gets fishy. Because depending on how you look at it, it is and it isn't.

     The probability of having 3 girls in a row looks like it is somewhere around 11.7% (0.49³)

     But in each event there is 51%ish chance of a boy.

     

    I actually thought it was a statistic I had dragged up in my earlier post. But if it had been Im sure the number would have been messier.. Because I am pretty sure there are other factors than this calculation that would come into play in real life. 

  • MagiknightMagiknight McKinleyville, CAPosts: 782Member
    Originally posted by WW4BW
    Originally posted by Magiknight
    Each event, being pregnant, is independent of the other event. Each time the chances of having a boy or girl are the same.

     This is where it gets fishy. Because depending on how you look at it, it is and it isn't.

     The probability of having 3 girls in a row looks like it is somewhere around 11.7% (0.49³)

     But in each event there is 51%ish chance of a boy.

     

    I actually thought it was a statistic I had dragged up in my earlier post. But if it had been Im sure the number would have been messier.. Because I am pretty sure there are other factors than this calculation that would come into play in real life. 

    You don't take it to the third power because it's an independent event. If it was a dependent events you would use the third power. This is reality. 51% of the human population is male. 49% is female.

  • WW4BWWW4BW KoldingPosts: 493Member
    Originally posted by Magiknight
    Originally posted by WW4BW
    Originally posted by Magiknight
    Each event, being pregnant, is independent of the other event. Each time the chances of having a boy or girl are the same.

     This is where it gets fishy. Because depending on how you look at it, it is and it isn't.

     The probability of having 3 girls in a row looks like it is somewhere around 11.7% (0.49³)

     But in each event there is 51%ish chance of a boy.

     

    I actually thought it was a statistic I had dragged up in my earlier post. But if it had been Im sure the number would have been messier.. Because I am pretty sure there are other factors than this calculation that would come into play in real life. 

    You don't take it to the third power because it's an independent event. If it was a dependent events you would use the third power. This is reality. 51% of the human population is male. 49% is female.

     Hmm No.

     "If a mother had two children, both girls, what are the odds of third child being a boy ?"

     Clearly they arent independent.

  • MagiknightMagiknight McKinleyville, CAPosts: 782Member

    A dependent event is effected by the previous event. For example, if you have 2 blue balls and 2 green balls mixed together in a bag. You reach in and grab a ball at random. The next time you grab a ball your chances will be different.

     

    An independent event is not effected by the previous event. For example, flipping a coin. Each time you flip it there is an equal chance of getting heads or tails. Having a boy or girl is NOT effected by the previous child you had.

  • WW4BWWW4BW KoldingPosts: 493Member
    Originally posted by Magiknight

    A dependent event is effected by the previous event. For example, if you have 2 blue balls and 2 green balls mixed together in a bag. You reach in and grab a ball at random. The next time you grab a ball your chances will be different.

     

    An independent event is not effected by the previous event. For example, flipping a coin. Each time you flip it there is an equal chance of getting heads or tails. Having a boy or girl is NOT effected by the previous child you had.

     Aah , had to read up on what it was called in english.. Seems we were both using it incorrectly.

     You were using it wrong because it doesnt matter in this case. I was using it wrong because I thought you meant something else.

     If it had been a dependent event. It would have been a case of depleting the X cromosomes in the father.. And that doesnt really make any sense.. So yes they are each independent events..

    But it is a series of events.. and so you have to compound the probability. 

    But our disagreement probably comes down to reading the question differently.

    I read to mean that I should compound the probabilty of independent events. And you chose to ignore data and look at the singular event.

  • rounnerrounner CanberraPosts: 603Member Uncommon
    Chance events are independently evaluated when you already know the probability. For an unknown like child birth, then previous events give an indication of likelihood. 40% sounded pretty good to me.
  • allendale5allendale5 kansas city, MOPosts: 124Member
    We had 4 girls in a row.  What are the odds of that?  This is why I play MMO's :  to hide.
  • AmanaAmana New York, NYPosts: 2,567Moderator Uncommon
    When a thread is locked, that's an indication that the topic has either gotten out of hand or that it's not appropriate. Either way, don't repost or create new threads to continue locked ones.

    To give feedback on moderation, contact community@mmorpg.com

This discussion has been closed.