It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
EA announced 1.7M new F2P accounts in their quarterly results. This has to be accurate.
But towards the end of March Bioware revealed that they had 2M new F2P accounts.
Assuming that Bioware were being truthful the only way I can reconcile the two numbers is if 300k F2P accounts became subscribers in April when Makeb came out. (The $10 discount being close to the cost of a 1 month sub).
As EA also said that the game had "just under 500k" this would also mean that prior to Makeb the game had c. 200k subs.
NOTE: only assumption here is that Bioware were telling the truth.
EA also said that since they went F2P they had doubled their monthly revenue.
ASSUMPTION: the game had 200k subs prior to going F2P and an average of 200k from December through March.
- So: pre-F2P revenue would have been c. 200k x $15 or $3M / month.
- For December through March revenue would have been (200k x $15) + cash shop. Or $12M + cash shop over 4 months.
- In April revenue jumps to: Subs: 500k x $15; Makeb purchases: 500kk x $10. Or $12.5M + cash shop.
- Total revenue in 5 months: $24.5M + cash shop or a monthly average of $4.9M + cash shop.
So doubling their revenue would mean that the cash shop would have to have generated (at least) $5.5M in 5 months. $1M per month average. 50c. a month based on 2M accounts or $10 over 5 months based on 100k people paying. (Zynga's metrics suggest that only 5% of F2P account pay anything, most play for free!).
So this works with what EA and Bioware have said.
TWEAK: the game probably lost some subscribers after it went F2P. If it had c. 260k prior to going F2P then this would have been $4M revenue per month. And to double revenue EA would have to have made $15.5M from the cash shop in 5 months. Say $3M per month or an average of $1.50 based on 2M accounts per month or $30 total from 100k users. Probably something between the two extremes: F2P accounts spending $5 to get preferred and then others buying packs etc.
I think I am happy with the number of subs dropping when the game went F2P and the cash shop bringing in more money but these sort of numbers seem to work with what Bioware and EA have said.