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Nail in the coffin?

FaliceFalice Nardsville, CAPosts: 329Member

I mentioned sometime ago that I thought/guessed that PC's are a dieing breed. Current gen consoles were able to keep up pretty well with PC's, next gen will do even better - and tablets/phones will become more powerful... I really think PC's are going the way of the VCR.

http://m.ign.com/articles/2013/04/10/pc-shipments-mark-biggest-decline-in-nearly-20-years

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Comments

  • kadepsysonkadepsyson sun prairie, WIPosts: 1,937Member

    They will not be replaced in our lifetime.

     

    I don't think a tablet or phone would work for air traffic control, geological surveying, or professional securities trading for example.  I don't care if there is an app for that.

     

    Seeing people walking down sidewalks eyes glued to their smartphones is more akin to the zombie apocalypse than an electronics revolution.

    El Psy Congroo

  • RobokappRobokapp Dublin, OHPosts: 5,206Member Uncommon

    so next-gan consoles with beat present-gen pc's.

     

    what about next-gen pc's ?

     

    personally I don't really care if a console is better. I like my PC.

    image

  • dinamsdinams Muriae, VAPosts: 1,362Member

    As long as you cant:

     

    Game properly

    Perform complex calculus and algorithms

    Geological Surveys

    Programming(properly)

     

    On a mobile platform, PC will exist

    And consoles CAN'T keep up with PC technology, hell, this 'next-gen' will already be obsolete in a year or two

    "It has potential"
    -Second most used phrase on existence
    "It sucks"
    -Most used phrase on existence

  • snapfusionsnapfusion San, CAPosts: 954Member
    That was you? Your the guy that came up with this "PC's are a dying breed" thing?  I was totally wondering who that was.
  • RobokappRobokapp Dublin, OHPosts: 5,206Member Uncommon
    i don't really care if PC's live forever or not. As long as i die before they do. :D

    image

  • dinamsdinams Muriae, VAPosts: 1,362Member
    Originally posted by Robokapp
    i don't really care if PC's live forever or not. As long as i die before they do. :D

    My worst fear is that Mobile becomes the THING

    Jesus no, it makes me remember all those new generation of so-called nerds that only play angry-birds

     

    I hope virtual reality gadgets comes sooner

    "It has potential"
    -Second most used phrase on existence
    "It sucks"
    -Most used phrase on existence

  • LatronusLatronus Lexington Park, MDPosts: 692Member
    Originally posted by kadepsyson

    They will not be replaced in our lifetime.

     

    I don't think a tablet or phone would work for air traffic control, geological surveying, or professional securities trading for example.  I don't care if there is an app for that.

     

    Seeing people walking down sidewalks eyes glued to their smartphones is more akin to the zombie apocalypse than an electronics revolution.

    I tend to agree.  Besides, I hate playing games on the small ass cell phone screens, and holding something the size of an iPad to your ear would just look wrong.

    image
  • strangepowersstrangepowers Chiacgo, ILPosts: 602Member Uncommon

    You also have to consider the possibility that folks, speaking from personal experience, are much more comfortable building and maintaining a machine on their own and upgrading it when needed.

    Back in the day there was much of the population buying a PC for the first time,indicating sales... then having no need to buy another one for quite some time because they don't have a need for an upgrade unless the old one broke. Think of the legions of average users, soccer moms and the like, who don't to anything other than Facebook and email, no need to buy a computer ever again unless it goes kaput.

    Consider too that many writers just have to push an article out to their editor to make deadline and keep their jobs, so yeah...

    The scary part is one day the world will be run by adults who were never spanked as kids and got trophies just for participating.

  • kadepsysonkadepsyson sun prairie, WIPosts: 1,937Member
    Originally posted by strangepowers

    You also have to consider the possibility that folks, speaking from personal experience, are much more comfortable building and maintaining a machine on their own and upgrading it when needed.

    Back in the day there was much of the population buying a PC for the first time,indicating sales... then having no need to buy another one for quite some time because they don't have a need for an upgrade unless the old one broke. Think of the legions of average users, soccer moms and the like, who don't to anything other than Facebook and email, no need to buy a computer ever again unless it goes kaput.

    Consider too that many writers just have to push an article out to their editor to make deadline and keep their jobs, so yeah...

    I hope the Apple philosophy of upgrading a computer doesn't become the norm.

    "Oh, you need a bigger hard drive?  Just throw your Mac in the garbage, and buy a new one!  It's easy!"

    El Psy Congroo

  • LawlmonsterLawlmonster Dallas, TXPosts: 954Member Uncommon
    I don't understand why anyone would make the argument that any generation of gaming console could make personal computers obsolete, without allowing the freedom and capabilities a PC provides, particularly regarding customization of hardware. I can't run any number of music services, browser based or propietary software, in the background of a game I'm playing, which comes with a number of player created modifications or software enhancements, while being capable of tabbing or switching over to another open piece of software to check the news or this site, using a console. In combination with the capabilities PC owners have to build their own preformance, and the selection of hardware itself almost immediately outdating any console as soon as it's released, personal computers aren't going anywhere in the foreseeable future.

    "This is life! We suffer and slave and expire. That's it!" -Bernard Black (Dylan Moran)

  • FaliceFalice Nardsville, CAPosts: 329Member

    Listen I'm not for the PC dieing, I just see it in the tea-leaves. I love the PC, I want it to be around - but honestly folks we're a minority. More and more people are abondoning the PC in droves, it used to be a necessity - it is no longer a "need to have".

    Regarding consoles, they were never able to keep pace with PC's, I'm 37 so I would know. But this generation of consoles held its ground pretty well... I know that PC's evolve faster, but even with the higher technincal specs, this current gen held its ground. These devices are dedicated for games, all of that power is focused on basically one job.

    Just saying is all.

  • RobokappRobokapp Dublin, OHPosts: 5,206Member Uncommon

    will the cubicle die along with the PC ? ill we conduct business on our cell phones ?

     

    because there's a regular phone in my office...sitting there on my desk. Why do we need one of those when we have cell phones ?

     

     

    image

  • kadepsysonkadepsyson sun prairie, WIPosts: 1,937Member
    Originally posted by Falice

    Listen I'm not for the PC dieing, I just see it in the tea-leaves. I love the PC, I want it to be around - but honestly folks we're a minority. More and more people are abondoning the PC in droves, it used to be a necessity - it is no longer a "need to have".

    Regarding consoles, they were never able to keep pace with PC's, I'm 37 so I would know. But this generation of consoles held its ground pretty well... I know that PC's evolve faster, but even with the higher technincal specs, this current gen held its ground. These devices are dedicated for games, all of that power is focused on basically one job.

    Just saying is all.

    When NASA announces they're no longer going to use computers, but just handle everything required to design and launch manned space missions using their iPhone, then, and only then, will I believe you.

     

    Until then, it's laughable.

     

    Sure, I don't need a PC to browse Facebook, but to think they will just become replaced by phones and tablets is a stunningly simple way of looking at things.

     

    Buy a new brand of tea.

    El Psy Congroo

  • gigatgigat Minneapolis, MNPosts: 604Member Uncommon

    You cannot develop a video game on a gaming console.  Even if you could, you would be doing it on inferior hardware that can't be easily upgraded.  Without a PC, you will not have video games to play on your gaming console.

    The fact that PC sales are low does not indicate that PCs aren't being used.  It indicates that PCs are becoming more reliable, powerful, and less necessary to constantly upgrade or replace.

    Also, you will have a difficult time developing mobile apps from a cell phone.  The popularity of mobile apps only increases the need for PCs... unless you plan on writing code with a virtual touch keyboard on a 4 inch screen.

    "Lose the helmet sis, we can't prove that you're retarded." - Dennis Reynolds

  • aRtFuLThinGaRtFuLThinG MelbournePosts: 1,134Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by kadepsyson

    They will not be replaced in our lifetime.

     Probably won't, ever.

    We may see computers or computer-like devices becoming increasingly portable, however the modularity and options will probably not decrease, but increase with time - because at the end of the day it is more cost effective to both the consumer and the manufacturer to provide modularity for generic devices to allow customer for whatever functions that they want.

    Even PDAs are  modular - it is just modular in it's function by going the applications route rather than the hardware route.

     

    If anything the trend seem to indicate the opposite of what the OP says - the delicated system for specific function seems to be a dying breed. With the increasing computing power, there seems to be no need for delicate machines or thin clients - all you need is a low cost client that is powerful enough for customising on the end user level. And with the advent of emulation, VMWare virtualization and other thin clienting applications such as Citrix the need for delicated machines becomes even less necessary. People would want MORE generic devices instead so they can support virtualization and remote clients.

  • RobokappRobokapp Dublin, OHPosts: 5,206Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by kadepsyson
    Originally posted by Falice

    Listen I'm not for the PC dieing, I just see it in the tea-leaves. I love the PC, I want it to be around - but honestly folks we're a minority. More and more people are abondoning the PC in droves, it used to be a necessity - it is no longer a "need to have".

    Regarding consoles, they were never able to keep pace with PC's, I'm 37 so I would know. But this generation of consoles held its ground pretty well... I know that PC's evolve faster, but even with the higher technincal specs, this current gen held its ground. These devices are dedicated for games, all of that power is focused on basically one job.

    Just saying is all.

    When NASA announces they're no longer going to use computers, but just handle everything required to design and launch manned space missions using their iPhone, then, and only then, will I believe you.

     

    Until then, it's laughable.

    I bet a scientific calculator can beat the pentiums that computed the moon landing... perhpas a weak example ?

    image

  • gigatgigat Minneapolis, MNPosts: 604Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Falice

    Listen I'm not for the PC dieing, I just see it in the tea-leaves. I love the PC, I want it to be around - but honestly folks we're a minority. More and more people are abondoning the PC in droves, it used to be a necessity - it is no longer a "need to have".

    Regarding consoles, they were never able to keep pace with PC's, I'm 37 so I would know. But this generation of consoles held its ground pretty well... I know that PC's evolve faster, but even with the higher technincal specs, this current gen held its ground. These devices are dedicated for games, all of that power is focused on basically one job.

    Just saying is all.

    You are very wrong.

    People need computers more than ever.  Some people might not need direct use of a computer, but most technology they use (video games, smartphones, tablets) is 100% dependent on computers.

    The more people who use technology, means more people need computers to develop that technology.  I don't care if the technology fits in your pocket, sits on your entertainment center, or hangs on the wall... someone needed a computer to develop that technology.

     

    Many consumers don't need direct use of computers, I'll give you that.  But if those consumers wish to use any technology, then they'll be indirectly relying upon the use of computers.

    "Lose the helmet sis, we can't prove that you're retarded." - Dennis Reynolds

  • TheAncientTheAncient KirkcaldyPosts: 67Member
    Originally posted by Falice

    I mentioned sometime ago that I thought/guessed that PC's are a dieing breed. Current gen consoles were able to keep up pretty well with PC's, next gen will do even better - and tablets/phones will become more powerful... I really think PC's are going the way of the VCR.

    http://m.ign.com/articles/2013/04/10/pc-shipments-mark-biggest-decline-in-nearly-20-years

    It's equilibrium, as computing power spreads to other formats so games will follow. However as others have pointed out, the PC has features and uniqueness that still merit it as a viable device. The keyboard & mouse combo is still a powerful enough feature to keep gaming on the PC around for a while yet. MMORPGs & God games are difficult to implement well on consoles and they dont look like disappearing any time soon.

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Posts: 14,788Member Uncommon

    First of all, no, mobile devices will not catch desktops in performance, barring some unforeseen revolution in technology.  Think transistors replacing vacuum tubes big; the routine advances that give Moore's Law a reprieve for a few more years won't do it.

    Mobile devices are limited by power, not transistor count.  If power savings continue to scale with die shrinks roughly as it has in recent years, that means that you can double your performance about every four years or so.  At that rate, we may see a cell phone with graphics that can match what a GeForce GTX Titan can do today sometime around 2040.  It's not likely that Moore's Law will survive that long, as it would require process nodes that manipulate matter at a subatomic level without making the radical chemistry changes that splitting atoms is known to have.  Quantum mechanics would wreak havoc well before we get there, anyway.

    Furthermore, even that is a highly optimistic view, as even if Moore's Law survives, there is reason to believe that power savings from die shrinks may well slow down.  I don't remember the source, but a bigwig at one company that makes mobile chips recently said something to the effect that a straight die shrink to 14 nm would only yield about a 20% power savings as compared to 28 nm, not 50%.  If that's accurate and going to be the norm from here on, then cell phones catch today's GeForce GTX Titan sometime around 2100.  Even if we could figure out how to make chips that use individual electrons as fully-functional transistors (which isn't likely), Moore's Law wouldn't survive nearly that long.

    -----

    But let's ignore that.  In fact, for the sake of argument, let's assume that in the near future, cell phones will offer the same performance as desktops, and that it will stay that way forever.  Maybe someone discovers some unobtainium with some miracle properties that makes computer chips not burn meaningful amounts of power or some such.

    Would that be the end of desktops?  Hardly.  The desktop form factor offers real advantages.

    Some people need to type a lot.  For that, there's no substitute for a real, full-sized desktop keyboard.  A laptop isn't nearly as good, and a cell phone or pure tablet (as opposed to a detachable) is a complete non-starter.

    Some people need a lot of monitor space to get work done.  For monitor space, there's no substitute for a desktop with monitors large enough that you can't accidentally misplace and lose them.  Or better yet, two or three such monitors.

    Some people value reliability.  Desktops win by a mile there.  Anything that you can do to make a cell phone more reliable, you can also do to make a desktop more reliable.  But the opposite is not true; ever try to repair a cell phone that had one component break?  Ever drop a desktop case while the computer was running?

    While some purposes need mobility, there are also purposes where a lack of mobility is an advantage.  Desktops are harder to steal than cell phones, and for some purposes, that matters.

    Some people like to use a keyboard and mouse to play games.  Ever try doing that on a cell phone?  What you can do with games for a cell phone is a lot more limited than for desktops because of the limited input options.

    -----

    The declining sales of new desktops are not because no one uses desktops anymore.  Rather, they're because fewer people see the need to replace their old desktop by a new one.  If desktops last twice as long as they used to and there are the same number in use everywhere, then that will cut new desktop sales in half.

    One of the attractions of manufacturing chips for cell phones and tablets is precisely because they have such short lifetimes, which means that buyers need to buy something new once again very often.  That's a big deal if you manufacture processors.  But from a consumer perspective, it's a reason to stay with desktops.

  • mmoskimmoski plymouthPosts: 282Member

    You have to question what "dying breed" means to the OP.

    Here's the context I will see it in, yes what we currently know as a PC is dying very slowly, but only in the contexts of its current form; at some point there will be no distinguishable differences in computational power and usage between a "Console" and a "PC", most notably, "Consoles" will be dead at that point, heh, they will just be PC's in a set form factor, but that's the future, and I will be dead by then so I hope someone keeps the thread alive so  I can do the "I Told You So Bit" from the grave.

  • npTrombenpTrombe Caldwell, TXPosts: 7Member Uncommon

    someone find number of MoBos that asus alone sold for Q1 2013, then tell me if you still think the pc is dying

    heres the ones for 2012

    http://www.pcper.com/news/General-Tech/41-million-motherboards-shipped-2012-were-either-ASUS-or-Gigabyte

    the premade pc that large companies sell for a ridicolously high price is dying that for sure, people are getting smarter and not buying those overpriced pieces of junk

  • AoriAori Carbondale, ILPosts: 1,886Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Quizzical

     

    The declining sales of new desktops are not because no one uses desktops anymore.  Rather, they're because fewer people see the need to replace their old desktop by a new one.  If desktops last twice as long as they used to and there are the same number in use everywhere, then that will cut new desktop sales in half.

    One of the attractions of manufacturing chips for cell phones and tablets is precisely because they have such short lifetimes, which means that buyers need to buy something new once again very often.  That's a big deal if you manufacture processors.  But from a consumer perspective, it's a reason to stay with desktops.

    This and it has got a lot easier in recent years for people to either build their own system or have someone build it for them. This makes it even harder to track PC usuage by sales.

    Now I bet if you look at peripherial sales, they're going to be quite a lot higher than desktop sales. Right now PC's just last so much longer since display quality is more or less at a standstill for the affordable future. This obviously doesn't apply to enthusiasts but for most people they see no reason to upgrade.

  • MidBossMidBoss Blank, WIPosts: 93Member
    Originally posted by Quizzical
    Really Big Quote.

    May I copy paste this to every thread about this topic I come across in the future? Because I believe you just won this conversation forever.

    (Or at least until we see what the future actually holds rather then making silly guesses)

  • funyahnsfunyahns michigan city, INPosts: 315Member
    The idea that PC's are going to die out is beyond insane.  People who work need computers still. Cell phones are really just toys.  And the idea that these crap app games can actually replace an actual game is wrong.  Yeah I could play one for 5 minutes while I am killing time sitting in line. But it can not replace a solid rpg with an amazing story on my big screen.
  • RocketeerRocketeer NachrodtPosts: 1,304Member Common

    TBH i don't see consoles as the nail in the coffin of PCs, mobiles however? Well depends how you define PC i guess. Lets take a look at the video embedded here:

    http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android

    You know i could totally see that. Some mobiles can already output games at HD, i't would totally make sense to dock them into a station and add keyboard, mice and a big screen to it. Or a TV and a controller, you know instead of a console. Next gen mobile chips will have full opengl 4.2 support includng tessellation at full HD.

    So yeah, once you add HIDs and a screen to a phone/tablet the line between it and consoles/PC gets awfully blurry.

     

    So will the PC die? No, not in the foreseeable time. The combination of big screen(thats realtively close), keyboard and mice that most people see as the definition of PC is just too useful. It will hold out at the very least till we get really good voice control, and even then other input devices will remain optional.

     

    Personally i see the future of consoles alot more skeptic though, they are expensive considering you can "only" game with them(contrary to lets say a smartphone) and even the actual games themselves are the most expensive of any platform. They are also mostly closed platforms(access controlled by manufacturer), making them hard to get into for smaller game companies. And all of their precious power is wasted once game streaming enters the picture(The game gets rendered on a serverfarm, you only need to be able to playback the HD stream that gets send to you, we are talking about a 50$ hardware investment here...).

    The way things are going the low game prices on iOS and android have already pretty much hurt the console manufacturers(think psp etc), once you get to add a big screen and a controller to the phone/tablet ... Give them them a further generation or two and they will have plenty of power to handle some really pretty gfx all the while boasting content prices in the single digits.

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