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analyst: Q4 2012 said to be a great quarter for ncsoft

NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common

wont see the official report until Feb 2013

 

http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/12/30/korean-analysts-predict-guild-wars-2-expansion-in-2013/

The (analyst) firm notes that Q4 was an excellent quarter for the company, with a big upswing in operational profits mostly credited to Guild Wars 2. The firm goes on to predict that the market in North America and Europe will be the most lucrative for the company, and based on a recent visit to NCsoft's headquarters

 

 

http://www.kdbdw.com/bbs/board/message/view.do?messageId=182267&messageNumber=25&messageCategoryId=0&startId=zzzzz~&startPage=1&curPage=1&searchType=2&searchText=NCSoft&searchStartYear=2011&searchStartMonth=12&searchStartDay=30&searchEndYear=2012&searchEndMonth=12&searchEndDay=29&lastPageFlag=&categoryId=76

4Q OP to reach a historic high

We recently visited NCsoft and came away confident that 4Q OP is likely to reach a record high of more than W100bn. Based on our conversation with the management, we estimate Guild Wars 2 sales at W118bn in 4Q (vs. W46bn in 3Q) and Lineage I sales at W63bn (vs. W38bn in 3Q). Meanwhile, we believe sales of Aion, Lineage II, and Blade & Soul are likely to remain flat QoQ. We forecast 4Q revenues to expand 51% to W275bn and OP to jump 101% QoQ to W102bn, despite a one-off expense (W15bn) related to the sponsorship of a baseball team.

Comments

  • TorvalTorval Oregon CountryPosts: 7,187Member Uncommon

    This is great news.  The Q3 results held this sort of foreshadowing, but the Q4 support this.

    It's no surprise to me that GW2 is actually as successful as it is despite the odd spin to the contrary.  What is surprising is that BnS is flat.  It's also wildly successful and holding flat is pretty good, but I had anticipated it growing some and receiving a more prominent mention.

    The one anomoly that I really love in the article(s) is that Lineage is still going so strong.  The game, after all this time, is still pulling in more revenue than most western games, except WoW of course, and more than any other game of its generation.  We often hear about UO and EQ in the "old guard" but Lineage never gets the credit it deserves.  Of any old game I really wish that NCSoft would bring Lineage back to the west.  Maybe a 2.5d isometric game can't succeed over here anymore, but I certainly miss that title.  Maybe ArcheAge will be the 21st century replacement.

  • AlotAlot BredaPosts: 1,948Member


    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    This is great news.  The Q3 results held this sort of foreshadowing, but the Q4 support this.

    It's no surprise to me that GW2 is actually as successful as it is despite the odd spin to the contrary.  What is surprising is that BnS is flat.  It's also wildly successful and holding flat is pretty good, but I had anticipated it growing some and receiving a more prominent mention.

    The one anomoly that I really love in the article(s) is that Lineage is still going so strong.  The game, after all this time, is still pulling in more revenue than most western games, except WoW of course, and more than any other game of its generation.  We often hear about UO and EQ in the "old guard" but Lineage never gets the credit it deserves.  Of any old game I really wish that NCSoft would bring Lineage back to the west.  Maybe a 2.5d isometric game can't succeed over here anymore, but I certainly miss that title.  Maybe ArcheAge will be the 21st century replacement.


    But ArcheAge wasn't 2.5d isometric last time I checked, or am I wrong?

    Edit: I just read the article on Massively and I'm surprised to read that big analysts such as KDB Daewoo are already expecting an expansion to hit next year.

  • OmaliOmali MMO Business Correspondent Orchard Park, NYPosts: 1,114Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Torvaldr

    This is great news.  The Q3 results held this sort of foreshadowing, but the Q4 support this.

    It's no surprise to me that GW2 is actually as successful as it is despite the odd spin to the contrary.  What is surprising is that BnS is flat.  It's also wildly successful and holding flat is pretty good, but I had anticipated it growing some and receiving a more prominent mention.

    The one anomoly that I really love in the article(s) is that Lineage is still going so strong.  The game, after all this time, is still pulling in more revenue than most western games, except WoW of course, and more than any other game of its generation.  We often hear about UO and EQ in the "old guard" but Lineage never gets the credit it deserves.  Of any old game I really wish that NCSoft would bring Lineage back to the west.  Maybe a 2.5d isometric game can't succeed over here anymore, but I certainly miss that title.  Maybe ArcheAge will be the 21st century replacement.

    Lineage Eternal is in development and will be a 2.5d isometric game along the lines of Lineage 1.

    Check out my monthly column on MMORPG.com.

    image

  • TorvalTorval Oregon CountryPosts: 7,187Member Uncommon

    Not to derail, but...

    I think Lineage Eternal will be a fun game, and it does succeed the IP.  But it doesn't seem the spiritual successor of the game.  Jake Song created Lineage and is working on ArcheAge.  All the things I read about ArcheAge seem to be what Jake Song couldn't do with Lineage due to technical limitations at the time it was published (late 90s).

    More on topic...

    It's interesting to see the predictions about the expansion as well.  I seriously doubt ANet and NCSoft are sitting on their laurels with this one.  An opportunity like this doesn't come around that often.  They should run with it.

  • KingJigglyKingJiggly Simpsonville, SCPosts: 777Member
    Originally posted by Alot

     


    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    This is great news.  The Q3 results held this sort of foreshadowing, but the Q4 support this.

     

    It's no surprise to me that GW2 is actually as successful as it is despite the odd spin to the contrary.  What is surprising is that BnS is flat.  It's also wildly successful and holding flat is pretty good, but I had anticipated it growing some and receiving a more prominent mention.

    The one anomoly that I really love in the article(s) is that Lineage is still going so strong.  The game, after all this time, is still pulling in more revenue than most western games, except WoW of course, and more than any other game of its generation.  We often hear about UO and EQ in the "old guard" but Lineage never gets the credit it deserves.  Of any old game I really wish that NCSoft would bring Lineage back to the west.  Maybe a 2.5d isometric game can't succeed over here anymore, but I certainly miss that title.  Maybe ArcheAge will be the 21st century replacement.


     

    But ArcheAge wasn't 2.5d isometric last time I checked, or am I wrong?

    Edit: I just read the article on Massively and I'm surprised to read that big analysts such as KDB Daewoo are already expecting an expansion to hit next year.

    I saw that too and was like O.O

    Fix what is wrong with the game now... then maybe in like 2-3 years release expansion. This... is just too much.

  • fiontarfiontar Dana, MAPosts: 3,719Member
    Converted to $US, that would be over $110Million that GW2 raked in for Q4! I'm going to guess a fair portion is from the gem store. I know I've been spending more than I intended, so it's a good thing I'm still loving playing the game. :)

    Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
    image

  • TheQuinchTheQuinch Oz, SCPosts: 22Member
    Call me biased, but given that NCsoft still hasn't recovered from their September plummet, stockbrokers aren't very convinced, regardless of what the analysts say. Keep in mind that Guild Wars 2 was a one-time burst and continued income from it depends on players willingness to keep up with the Joneses through gem purchases.
  • Lord.BachusLord.Bachus Den HelderPosts: 9,064Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by TheQuinch
    Call me biased, but given that NCsoft still hasn't recovered from their September plummet, stockbrokers aren't very convinced, regardless of what the analysts say. Keep in mind that Guild Wars 2 was a one-time burst and continued income from it depends on players willingness to keep up with the Joneses through gem purchases.

    GW2 will have continuous income from releases in other regions, the gemstore probably making just as much money as any subbed game, and the anuall expansions thta add to the profit every year from now.

     

    GW2 is here to stay

     

    Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)

  • TheQuinchTheQuinch Oz, SCPosts: 22Member
    Maybe, but again, there's only so many regions to release in and the biggest ones have been covered in the first wave {Asia/US}. As for the gemstore, that depends on the location - financially, GW1 and GW2 have been advertised at a "buy once, play forever" price. If the gemstore purchases start being seen as a pay2win requirement, that might snap back pretty badly.
  • nastyjmannastyjman New York, NYPosts: 161Member
    Originally posted by TheQuinch
    Call me biased, but given that NCsoft still hasn't recovered from their September plummet, stockbrokers aren't very convinced, regardless of what the analysts say. Keep in mind that Guild Wars 2 was a one-time burst and continued income from it depends on players willingness to keep up with the Joneses through gem purchases.

    Agree. If GW2 becomes greedy and starts to gouge people through Black Lion Chests, people will leave in droves. Wintersday showed an improvement compared to Halloween. Mini-pets were obtainable by playing the game, but also offered purchase in BLTC. Also, in-game skins were obtainable and unique compared to the BLTC offering. The chests on Wintersday was purely optional, but the drop-rate of coveted items were .003%~.005%. IMO, the Black Lion Chests should go -- or at least reduce the price of keys.

    More cosmetic items, mini-pets, and, hopefully, musical instruments, may keep it stabilized. Also, once guild housing and player housing is implemented, I think the playerbase is willing to spend a little cash for furniture or an ingredient (ala Mystic Stone) to craft furniture.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,801Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by TheQuinch
    Maybe, but again, there's only so many regions to release in and the biggest ones have been covered in the first wave {Asia/US}. As for the gemstore, that depends on the location - financially, GW1 and GW2 have been advertised at a "buy once, play forever" price. If the gemstore purchases start being seen as a pay2win requirement, that might snap back pretty badly.

    It was EU/US no US/ASIA.

    China will be released next year.

    And I don't think GW2 has a korean localization.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member
    Originally posted by fiontar
    Converted to $US, that would be over $110Million that GW2 raked in for Q4! I'm going to guess a fair portion is from the gem store. I know I've been spending more than I intended, so it's a good thing I'm still loving playing the game. :)

    I really hope they break this down between how much was in additional copies sold of the game and how much was gem sales.  I seriously doubt they will do this as they didn't on the Q4 report.

  • fiontarfiontar Dana, MAPosts: 3,719Member
    Originally posted by Lord.Bachus
    Originally posted by TheQuinch
    Call me biased, but given that NCsoft still hasn't recovered from their September plummet, stockbrokers aren't very convinced, regardless of what the analysts say. Keep in mind that Guild Wars 2 was a one-time burst and continued income from it depends on players willingness to keep up with the Joneses through gem purchases.

    GW2 will have continuous income from releases in other regions, the gemstore probably making just as much money as any subbed game, and the anuall expansions thta add to the profit every year from now.

     

    GW2 is here to stay

     

    I really doubt that more than half of the $110 million of GW2 revenue this quarter was from unit sales. The game has some churn, so I accept that there have been a healthy amount of new box sales to account for current server population impressions. However, I think at least half that revenue is from the Gem Store. (Even if each unit sold generated $60 of revenue, which it doesn't, half the revenue from unit sales would mean over 1 million new box sales after the game's launch).

    I've always said that GW2 is the type of game that can continue to sell copies, on an ongoing basis, at a healthy clip. All the Game of the Year and MMO of the Year awards will attract a lot of new customers in the coming year, as will word of mouth. However, Gem Store revenues are the key for making up for no subscription fee. If more than half the projected revenue was from gem sales, then the business model is off to a very good start.

    Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
    image

  • PrenhoPrenho AracajuPosts: 298Member
    Originally posted by Torvaldr

    This is great news.  The Q3 results held this sort of foreshadowing, but the Q4 support this.

    It's no surprise to me that GW2 is actually as successful as it is despite the odd spin to the contrary.  What is surprising is that BnS is flat.  It's also wildly successful and holding flat is pretty good, but I had anticipated it growing some and receiving a more prominent mention.

    The one anomoly that I really love in the article(s) is that Lineage is still going so strong.  The game, after all this time, is still pulling in more revenue than most western games, except WoW of course, and more than any other game of its generation.  We often hear about UO and EQ in the "old guard" but Lineage never gets the credit it deserves.  Of any old game I really wish that NCSoft would bring Lineage back to the west.  Maybe a 2.5d isometric game can't succeed over here anymore, but I certainly miss that title.  Maybe ArcheAge will be the 21st century replacement.

    I agree Lineage 1 should come back to west, Lineage Eternal only in 2014 - 2015 in Korea, in west... 2016.

  • PrenhoPrenho AracajuPosts: 298Member
    Originally posted by Torvaldr

    Not to derail, but...

    I think Lineage Eternal will be a fun game, and it does succeed the IP.  But it doesn't seem the spiritual successor of the game.  Jake Song created Lineage and is working on ArcheAge.  All the things I read about ArcheAge seem to be what Jake Song couldn't do with Lineage due to technical limitations at the time it was published (late 90s).

    More on topic...

    It's interesting to see the predictions about the expansion as well.  I seriously doubt ANet and NCSoft are sitting on their laurels with this one.  An opportunity like this doesn't come around that often.  They should run with it.

    My problem with Archeage is that it has 3 factions, from what I understood, the only difference if that you can kill faction members, but th pk system used didn't please me, do you go to jail?

     

    Why didn't Jake Song use a pk system like de did in L1? It works perfectly, the best pk system ever.

    Why didn't he make a clan-alliance based game, where the own players make their own allies and anemies instead of 3 static factions?

     

    TERA online had a great hype for all owpvp players, but it ended up being a themepark, and it will go F2P in east, 100% carebear. And I somehow feel as if Archeage could have this same fate.

  • bcbullybcbully Westland, MIPosts: 8,262Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Nadia

    wont see the official report until Feb 2013

     

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/12/30/korean-analysts-predict-guild-wars-2-expansion-in-2013/

    The (analyst) firm notes that Q4 was an excellent quarter for the company, with a big upswing in operational profits mostly credited to Guild Wars 2. The firm goes on to predict that the market in North America and Europe will be the most lucrative for the company, and based on a recent visit to NCsoft's headquarters

     

     

    http://www.kdbdw.com/bbs/board/message/view.do?messageId=182267&messageNumber=25&messageCategoryId=0&startId=zzzzz~&startPage=1&curPage=1&searchType=2&searchText=NCSoft&searchStartYear=2011&searchStartMonth=12&searchStartDay=30&searchEndYear=2012&searchEndMonth=12&searchEndDay=29&lastPageFlag=&categoryId=76

    4Q OP to reach a historic high

    We recently visited NCsoft and came away confident that 4Q OP is likely to reach a record high of more than W100bn. Based on our conversation with the management, we estimate Guild Wars 2 sales at W118bn in 4Q (vs. W46bn in 3Q) and Lineage I sales at W63bn (vs. W38bn in 3Q). Meanwhile, we believe sales of Aion, Lineage II, and Blade & Soul are likely to remain flat QoQ. We forecast 4Q revenues to expand 51% to W275bn and OP to jump 101% QoQ to W102bn, despite a one-off expense (W15bn) related to the sponsorship of a baseball team.

    Yeah I saw that. The crazy thing is, even with that report NCsoft stock continued to fall. The stock is at it's low point for the year, maybe all time low.  Investors don't seem to be buying what the article is selling. 

     

     

  • SukiyakiSukiyaki GreenwichPosts: 1,398Member Uncommon

    I mentioned it before but it appears some sales(GW2 retailer boxsales) from Q3 where defered into Q4 or simply not accounted for in Q3 yet due to being reported too late or whatever reasons there may be. In the Q3 report they mentioned something along the lines Q3 sales reports not covering all of GW2 sales in Q3 and they will be seen in Q4 which is why NCSoft them self expected the Q4 sales the be even higher than the Q3 ones. So even if they are high, not all of it should be tributed to sales in Q4. They'll like mention that tough if its the case.

    Though  $110 M seems still a bit overly optimistic. GW2 would already be a major success with 50-60 M. (What I expect) Even in respect of any defered revenues this would still put them in both a strong and stable position but also as the leading MMORPG next to only WoW, followed by games like EvE with 66M anual revenues a year ago.

    Compared to other games it seems to much either for a mere US/EU release. If it was global? Maybe. But Western only? During regular months WoW earns less than 200 M globaly, before the expansion it was even below 180M globaly and still keept boasting the "10 Millions". But 110 M for GW in EU/US only?  That would put it at about 2/3 of WoWs regular Western earnings or more than tripple of EvEs. I dont think its doing THAT well without a cashop+subscription+boxsales model like WoW.

     

    Btw ignore the usual peanuts without the faintest clue about stock trade.

  • jtcgsjtcgs New Port Richey, ILPosts: 1,777Member

    Guys, try to keep in mind that Guild Wars 1 had 6 MILLION players worldwide at its peak.

    There is no reason at all for Guild Wars 2 not to top 3-4 million in sales easy once its out worldwide....

    “I hope we shall crush...in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations, which dare already to challenge our government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country." ~Thomes Jefferson

  • FluxiiFluxii cocoa, FLPosts: 184Member

    You barely see anyone looking for PUG's in LA and overflow anymore at peak times.  And overflow takes about 2 seconds to get out of if there is one (and I'm on one of the busier, well, highest ranked servers).

    But keep telling yourselves there's TONS of people playing and dumping money into the game...

    No, as an above poster said... that was a one time huge injection.   Sure money will still trickle in, but the HUGE sale they had on the game alone over the holiday showed they were trying to grab as many players as they could already.  That's a big cut into their profits if they didn't need the people.

    In a conversation the other day, a bunch of people were going back and forth about the game and one thing someone said struck me as funny...

    "at launch I would have given the game a 4.5/5, now I'd give it a 3/5 at best".  How does that happen?  All they've done is added things?  Yet you like the game less now?  Maybe the game wasn't all that in the first place.

    I like the game, I just hate the Fanboi's that for the last year and STILL have to keep trying to prove SO HARD something about this game that just isn't there.

    EDIT for speilin

  • aionixaionix Fremont, OHPosts: 292Member
    Originally posted by Fluxii

    You barely see anyone looking for PUG's in LA and overflow anymore at peak times.  And overflow takes about 2 seconds to get out of if there is one (and I'm on one of the busier, well, highest ranked servers).

    But keep telling yourselves there's TONS of people playing and dumping money into the game...

    No, as an above poster said... that was a one time huge injection.   Sure money will still trickle in, but the HUGE sale they had on the game alone over the holiday showed they were trying to grab as many players as they could already.  That's a big cut into their profits if they didn't need the people.

    In a conversation the other day, a bunch of people were going back and forth about the game and one thing someone said struck me as funny...

    "at launch I would have given the game a 4.5/5, now I'd give it a 3/5 at best".  How does that happen?  All they've done is added things?  Yet you like the game less now?  Maybe the game wasn't all that in the first place.

    I like the game, I just hate the Fanboi's that for the last year and STILL have to keep trying to prove SO HARD something about this game that just isn't there.

    EDIT for speilin

    I agre with what you said except you forgot to take into account why people are talking less in LA.  This right here:

    http://gw2lfg.com/

     

    With the ability to get people cross server, its quicker than spamming LA chat looking for PUGs.  This tool should be incorporated into the game, sadly the servers are cut off from one another communication wise for PvE and that is a design flaw.

     

  • azzamasinazzamasin Butler, OHPosts: 3,066Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Fluxii

    You barely see anyone looking for PUG's in LA and overflow anymore at peak times.  And overflow takes about 2 seconds to get out of if there is one (and I'm on one of the busier, well, highest ranked servers).

    But keep telling yourselves there's TONS of people playing and dumping money into the game...

    No, as an above poster said... that was a one time huge injection.   Sure money will still trickle in, but the HUGE sale they had on the game alone over the holiday showed they were trying to grab as many players as they could already.  That's a big cut into their profits if they didn't need the people.

    In a conversation the other day, a bunch of people were going back and forth about the game and one thing someone said struck me as funny...

    "at launch I would have given the game a 4.5/5, now I'd give it a 3/5 at best".  How does that happen?  All they've done is added things?  Yet you like the game less now?  Maybe the game wasn't all that in the first place.

    I like the game, I just hate the Fanboi's that for the last year and STILL have to keep trying to prove SO HARD something about this game that just isn't there.

    EDIT for speilin

    Most everyone is using GW2LFG.com

     

    I can get a dungeon group within a minute thanks to this handy web site.  They even have an IOS App now too.

    Sandbox means open world, non-linear gaming PERIOD!

    Subscription Gaming, especially MMO gaming is a Cash grab bigger then the most P2W cash shop!

    Bring Back Exploration and lengthy progression times. RPG's have always been about the Journey not the destination!!!

    image

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