Why I believe SWTOR is Below 200k Subs

Warley

An enlightening discussion.  Sure, some have tried to derail it simply because I admitted up front that I don't play SWTOR.  Even still, I still stand by this statement:

SWTOR has less than 200k ACTIVE and PAYING subscribers.

Anyone that goes by the 'theoritcal' 3k  - 5k then multiplying that by 5 simply doesn't understand MMO servers.  I highly doubt that the servers have 3k (on average) users at a time.  Maybe, at peak time, but just because they can 'theoritically' hold that many doens't mean they do.  There's a reason why companies withhold server population numbers; for marketing purposes.

I'm willing to bet the average is closer to around 2k.  Then, you factor in free trials, you're looking at sub-200k an ACTIVE and 'PAYING" subscribers number.

 

TheLizardbones

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Originally posted by Warley
An enlightening discussion.  Sure, some have tried to derail it simply because I admitted up front that I don't play SWTOR.  Even still, I still stand by this statement:SWTOR has less than 200k ACTIVE and PAYING subscribers.Anyone that goes by the 'theoritcal' 3k  - 5k then multiplying that by 5 simply doesn't understand MMO servers.  I highly doubt that the servers have 3k (on average) users at a time.  Maybe, at peak time, but just because they can 'theoritically' hold that many doens't mean they do.  There's a reason why companies withhold server population numbers; for marketing purposes.I'm willing to bet the average is closer to around 2k.  Then, you factor in free trials, you're looking at sub-200k an ACTIVE and 'PAYING" subscribers number. 

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What is the point of throwing numbers out there? They're all guesses. 8k-15k is just as valid a guess as 2k-5k. 13k-25k is just as valid a guess. What is the point of guessing? You can't prove you're right and you can't prove anyone else is wrong. It's not even a discussion because all the numbers are made up. What is the obsession with getting an actual number?

Warley

Originally posted by lizardbones

 

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Originally posted by Warley
An enlightening discussion.  Sure, some have tried to derail it simply because I admitted up front that I don't play SWTOR.  Even still, I still stand by this statement:

 

SWTOR has less than 200k ACTIVE and PAYING subscribers.

Anyone that goes by the 'theoritcal' 3k  - 5k then multiplying that by 5 simply doesn't understand MMO servers.  I highly doubt that the servers have 3k (on average) users at a time.  Maybe, at peak time, but just because they can 'theoritically' hold that many doens't mean they do.  There's a reason why companies withhold server population numbers; for marketing purposes.

I'm willing to bet the average is closer to around 2k.  Then, you factor in free trials, you're looking at sub-200k an ACTIVE and 'PAYING" subscribers number.

 

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What is the point of throwing numbers out there? They're all guesses. 8k-15k is just as valid a guess as 2k-5k. 13k-25k is just as valid a guess. What is the point of guessing? You can't prove you're right and you can't prove anyone else is wrong. It's not even a discussion because all the numbers are made up. What is the obsession with getting an actual number?

 

You won't get an accurate number, but you can make a strong  case for a particular range.  There are many factors that go into my guess of sub-200k active and paying subscribers.   Note: I said active and paying, I didn't say overall.  This means that free trials are excluded as is people who no longer play, but have an active subscription that hasn't ran out.

There are many reasons why I peg this at sub-200k.  First, MMO history.  Most MMO's that are relatively successful early on, but lose a considerable amout of subscribers within the first year seem to hit the 150k - 250k range within the first several months.  Those MMO's that have poor retention rates, like Warhammer and Age of Conan, would drop even further; while others like Everquest 2 would stabilize at the 150k - 250k range for several years.  LoTRO stabilized for a few at that range, but then proceeded to drop leading to F2P.

On top of that, the extreme cutting of servers from 200 down to a couple dozen or so suggests that the population dropped to around 10% of it's initial 2 million (or so) units sold.   Or, 200k (10%).    EA had already anticipated this drop, and then planned the server count accordingly.  And, since the servers have been merged for a while then you can easily see how sub-200k active and paying subscriptions isn't as far fetched as you may believe.

In fact, I think that going f2p further hints at sub-200k and dropping since the merges happened way before EA seemed to have plans for f2p.  It looks like EA sees trends that the population is going to drop even further, and that f2p is the best course of action to stop the bleeding.   By the end of the year, if f2p wasn't implemented, EA would have had another Warhammer Online on their hands.

 

thinktank001

Originally posted by Warley

You won't get an accurate number, but you can make a strong  case for a particular range.  There are many factors that go into my guess of sub-200k active and paying subscribers.   Note: I said active and paying, I didn't say overall.  This means that free trials are excluded as is people who no longer play, but have an active subscription that hasn't ran out.

There are many reasons why I peg this at sub-200k.  First, MMO history.  Most MMO's that are relatively successful early on, but lose a considerable amout of subscribers within the first year seem to hit the 150k - 250k range within the first several months.  Those MMO's that have poor retention rates, like Warhammer and Age of Conan, would drop even further; while others like Everquest 2 would stabilize at the 150k - 250k range for several years.  LoTRO stabilized for a few at that range, but then proceeded to drop leading to F2P.

On top of that, the extreme cutting of servers from 200 down to a couple dozen or so suggests that the population dropped to around 10% of it's initial 2 million (or so) units sold.   Or, 200k (10%).    EA had already anticipated this drop, and then planned the server count accordingly.  And, since the servers have been merged for a while then you can easily see how sub-200k active and paying subscriptions isn't as far fetched as you may believe.

In fact, I think that going f2p further hints at sub-200k and dropping since the merges happened way before EA seemed to have plans for f2p.  It looks like EA sees trends that the population is going to drop even further, and that f2p is the best course of action to stop the bleeding.   By the end of the year, if f2p wasn't implemented, EA would have had another Warhammer Online on their hands.

 

 

I would have to agree with this assessment.   If you take a look at Nexon's financial info for Maplestory it earned roughly 40 mil between EU and NA versions.   Considering this is probably their " flaship " MMO, it would be reasonable to suggest that this is used as a metric for a time to convert over to P2W.

40 mil / 180 per year =  ~222k subs

SnarkRitter

I despise SWTOR and Bioware yet even I don't think the subs number is that low.

rdrpappy

Originally posted by Warley

First, I'll be honest. I don't play this game nor do I have intentions. But, I don't necessarily want to see it fail either.  I do question  the fact that this game has over 200k 'active' subscriptions.  Here's why:

The game relies heavily on VO and story as its selling point.  From what I've heard, it's pretty good in that area.  However, in other areas (areas that retain and build subscribers), I've heard nothing but bad and negative things.  It seems that many feel that this area is a poor man's version of WoW.

Considering that, and considering some of the things EA has said; 500k subscriptions to be profitable.  Then, combine that with their latest announcements (laying off staff -twice- and going F2P), you know that they are -at least- below the 500k subscription mark.  Then, active paying subscriptions are different than subscriptions.  Ultimately, I think around 200k active paying subscriptions is a fairly accurate number.

Here is the biggest concern I think that SWTOR supporters should have:  If that the subscription numbers were stable at even 200k subscriptions I don't think we'd be hearing about F2P from EA. I really do believe that subscription numbers are falling fast, and EA is predicting that that number will fall even further.

This is the only explanation for F2P.  200k active paying subscriptions equals $3 million a month or $36 million a year, minus operational costs of course.  Even still, that's a substantially high number that any business person would be foolish to mess with.  Especially considering that SWTOR has failed to meet expectations.

Again, I'd be surprised if EA has over 200k active paying subscriptions for SWTOR at this point.

 Amazing research, worthy of a post.

Gdemami

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Originally posted by Warley

Here's why:The game relies heavily on VO and story as its selling point.  From what I've heard, it's pretty good in that area.  However, in other areas (areas that retain and build subscribers), I've heard nothing but bad and negative things.  It seems that many feel that this area is a poor man's version of WoW.

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Problem is, you do not know how a profile of average subscriber looks like.

Does average subscriber even reach max lvl? Does average subscriber ever bother with end game that is available? etc.

Then you need to weight in your customer acquisition and leaver rate.

Without those data, there is no way to tell what is retaining and building subscriber base.

Loke666

Originally posted by teakbois
I am usually not onboard the using xfire as a tool for popuation judgment bandwagon, but EvE has 892 xfire users and we know that it is somewhere around 375k subs.  SWTOR is at 1353 users.  I think both games probably have a similar age breakdown therefore probably a similar liklihood to use xfire.

You cant measure games against eachothers like that. Some games are just more effective for teamspeak than others and Eve doesn´t have raids and dungeons so the need for X-fire is less than in TOR.

You can see current trends in a game with it though, but only of it is a huge trend. 

I am certain that TOR is below those magical 500K players, even if EA otherwise suddenly thought it would do better as F2P they would wait at least a year unless things were very bad. A game like this to announce F2P 8 months after release is not something the stockholders want to hear. Not at all.

How much lower is not something I want to speculate in but I agree with OP that the game needs to be better in the areas that keep people playing long term.

gervaise1

As of 31st July EA sadi 500k - 1M. It may be a dangerous assumption but we have to assume that they are all paying subs or on the free month.

When the 6 month subs start to run out the number will probably be closer to 500k than 1M.

As we get further away from the 31st July date the probability of a sub-500k number increases.

 

The servers were reduced by almost 90% (not 70%). How many accounts per server - no idea but as they were expecting 1.2M (from comments JR made earlier) and launched with c. 200 servers (they added a few extra at the start but not that many) then that is about 6k per server. I have seen companies talk about 10k per server (Darkfall for example) so 6k would tie in with EA's stated objective of giving everyone a good experience. Whatever number you use now though the number of servers is much reduced; loads are still going down and a % of the players will be on a trial.

Souldrainer

Originally posted by rdrpappy

Originally posted by Warley

First, I'll be honest. I don't play this game nor do I have intentions. But, I don't necessarily want to see it fail either.  I do question  the fact that this game has over 200k 'active' subscriptions.  Here's why:

The game relies heavily on VO and story as its selling point.  From what I've heard, it's pretty good in that area.  However, in other areas (areas that retain and build subscribers), I've heard nothing but bad and negative things.  It seems that many feel that this area is a poor man's version of WoW.

Considering that, and considering some of the things EA has said; 500k subscriptions to be profitable.  Then, combine that with their latest announcements (laying off staff -twice- and going F2P), you know that they are -at least- below the 500k subscription mark.  Then, active paying subscriptions are different than subscriptions.  Ultimately, I think around 200k active paying subscriptions is a fairly accurate number.

Here is the biggest concern I think that SWTOR supporters should have:  If that the subscription numbers were stable at even 200k subscriptions I don't think we'd be hearing about F2P from EA. I really do believe that subscription numbers are falling fast, and EA is predicting that that number will fall even further.

This is the only explanation for F2P.  200k active paying subscriptions equals $3 million a month or $36 million a year, minus operational costs of course.  Even still, that's a substantially high number that any business person would be foolish to mess with.  Especially considering that SWTOR has failed to meet expectations.

Again, I'd be surprised if EA has over 200k active paying subscriptions for SWTOR at this point.

 Amazing research, worthy of a post.

Your sarcasm is palpable.

AxiosImmortal

Originally posted by KyngBills
I would not be surprised at all if the North American numbers were around 200-300K...But I kind of doubt it's far below 500K overall just yet...Maybe in a few more Months...

By now all the 6month subs are up and I'm sure most people that subbed for 6months cancelled.

Rydeson

     200K might be a lil low.. but SWTOR is pretty much down to 23 active servers..  I seriously doubt there are more then 10,000 customers per server, which gives you 230K..  I'd be generous enough to say lets give another 70,000 to account for everyone else leftover..  I'd say SWTOR is definately below that 600k number that tossed out by the media..  Still says something that you sell 2 million? boxes and only  10-15% remain after 6 months... OUCH..

Tensor25

Originally posted by Warley

First, I'll be honest. I don't play this game nor do I have intentions. But, I don't necessarily want to see it fail either.  I do question  the fact that this game has over 200k 'active' subscriptions.  Here's why:

The game relies heavily on VO and story as its selling point.  From what I've heard, it's pretty good in that area.  However, in other areas (areas that retain and build subscribers), I've heard nothing but bad and negative things.  It seems that many feel that this area is a poor man's version of WoW.

Considering that, and considering some of the things EA has said; 500k subscriptions to be profitable.  Then, combine that with their latest announcements (laying off staff -twice- and going F2P), you know that they are -at least- below the 500k subscription mark.  Then, active paying subscriptions are different than subscriptions.  Ultimately, I think around 200k active paying subscriptions is a fairly accurate number.

Here is the biggest concern I think that SWTOR supporters should have:  If that the subscription numbers were stable at even 200k subscriptions I don't think we'd be hearing about F2P from EA. I really do believe that subscription numbers are falling fast, and EA is predicting that that number will fall even further.

This is the only explanation for F2P.  200k active paying subscriptions equals $3 million a month or $36 million a year, minus operational costs of course.  Even still, that's a substantially high number that any business person would be foolish to mess with.  Especially considering that SWTOR has failed to meet expectations.

Again, I'd be surprised if EA has over 200k active paying subscriptions for SWTOR at this point.

 I'm a business person. i work for a business that spends this on office supplies annually.

Oh yeah, there's that thing called relativity.

Dracill

In other words EA lost a lot more of 36 millions in market value because the failure of Swtor to get Wow numbers. F2p is them trying to get millions of users doesn't matter the real cost.
Modern markets doesn't care for reality is all about perception.

Warley

Just revisiting one of my old threads.  I still stand by the 200k active subscription mark in August.

tiefighter25

Well if you fator in that......

 

.....THREAD LOCKED.