Someone I know on here thinks there's 20 million mmorpg players.
I don't think there's really that many.
2 - 3 million at best. A bit better than that by Dec. because I think by then the word of mouth that it's a MMO without monthly fees will see it spread as a gift.
I think it's going to be higher than some of the more reasonable posters. My guess would be 6 million by October 28th and 9 million by Christmas. My unreasonable prediction has more to do with this game being treated more like any B2P game (like Diablo or COD). And I personally think this game is reaching audiences that most MMORPGs aren't able to.
Not a snowballs chance in hell.
I'll sigbet you. If you lose you have to put "SWTOR is the greatest mmo ever." If I lose you can come up with something for me to put in my sig.
I'm not in the bet because I'd never go 9 million by Christmas. Maybe lifetime. But not by Christmas.
But if you lost that bet, that's what I'd make you put in your sig, too...
Someone I know on here thinks there's 20 million mmorpg players.
I don't think there's really that many.
2 - 3 million at best. A bit better than that by Dec. because I think by then the word of mouth that it's a MMO without monthly fees will see it spread as a gift.
Not in the US/Europe. World wide, easily. Probably 12 million US/Europe active MMO players. Some coming in, some going out. I'm not playing any MMOs right now. There's nothing out there, except GW2 and TSW that interest me and I can't start two new MMOs at the same time.
So, TSW is on hold for 6 months. Then I'll pick it up, while pushing GW2 to #2 and still doing my occassional foray into LOTRO.
Yeah it will sell well initially, but as the person above said...
People like progression. They want to advance days, weeks and months after hitting level cap. Cosmetic advancement isn't that much of an incentive for many people. My friend, when I introduced him to the game, has gotten very hyped-up about it, but just gave me a confused look when I said there was 'no gear progression' after a point.
Not many people like a gear grind. But I still want to advance my character and get more powerful after launch.
You say this, yet 7 million people bought GW1 to date ......
Your numbers are more than misleading. That is the total box sales of all Guild Wars games to include the expansions. That would bring the actual unique purchases a long way down from that number. Guild Wars was pretty successful but still a niche game none the less.
2 months after release? I think it will probably break 2 million. I'll go with 2.2 million copies.
Originally posted by BigAndShiny
Yeah it will sell well initially, but as the person above said...
People like progression. They want to advance days, weeks and months after hitting level cap. Cosmetic advancement isn't that much of an incentive for many people. My friend, when I introduced him to the game, has gotten very hyped-up about it, but just gave me a confused look when I said there was 'no gear progression' after a point.
Not many people like a gear grind. But I still want to advance my character and get more powerful after launch.
This is quite true, I personally dont see a large-scale retention of players, it simply doesnt have the right game design for it (read: grind and vertical progression). The levelling to max level is incredibly quick and easy and I dont see the majority of players sticking around after they've reached that. I'm more than willing to be proven wrong, in fact I hope I am - I'm just stating my opinion. The big issue here for GW2 isnt box sales, its retention, and it'll be far more important to know the active number of players than simply the number of box sales several months after release (unfortunately I doubt we'll ever know active player numbers).
Originally posted by davestr1zl is is quite true, I personally dont see a large-scale retention of players, it simply doesnt have the right game design for it (read: grind and vertical progression). The levelling to max level is incredibly quick and easy and I dont see the majority of players sticking around after they've reached that. I'm more than willing to be proven wrong, in fact I hope I am - I'm just stating my opinion. The big issue here for GW2 isnt box sales, its retention, and it'll be far more important to know the active number of players than simply the number of box sales several months after release (unfortunately I doubt we'll ever know active player numbers).
Maybe... but by that logic WoW should have failed a long time ago. Oh sure, WoW has gear progression and even raiding... but how long has it been since WoW got a content update? How many people are maxed out in progression and just sitting on mailboxes in town doing nothing significant until panderps come out? I know that back when I played I had to wait weeks and months between content updates but I didn't quit WoW when I ran out of gear to progress into. Of course alts helped with this boredom.
It will be very easy to hit 80 but I don't think it will be nearly as easy to obtain a full gear set with the proper stats for your build and then transmute the set for the looks you want. Being able to continue leveling when you hit 80 and gain skill points that can be used to obtain gear (some of which is needed for legendaries) will keep people playing after reaching max level. Then there's always alting, right?
Yes, it's 7+ Million total box sales for the franchise. However, remember that all the Campaigns except for Eye of the North could be played stand alone. Also, a large portion of box sales are likely to have been multi-campaign editions, which counted as a single box, but would have counted towards the total number of sales for any particular Campaign. In short, there is no way to do anything but guess as to how many unique customers those 7+ million sales represent. However, it really doesn't matter. Any PC game franchise with 7+ Million total box sales is a large success, (GW1 is one of the most successful PC franchises).
Also, the two games are very different and GW2 will attract many more unique customers that GW1 did over it's run.
GW2 Player Retention
Throw entirely out of your thinking the idea that end game gear grind progressions are needed for an MMO to retain players. These kinds of gear grinds are necassary in many other titles, because the games have small worlds and maybe 80 hours of unique main game content. End game grinds have always been a poor substitute for actual content. The carrot on the stick is necassary in order to keep people playing and paying.
GW2 is a massive game, with a huge, immersive game world and many hundreds of hours of content. Level scaling ensures that as you level, all content below your level remains viable and rewarding. Dynamic Events, by their very nature, ensure that re-visiting areas of the game for additional play throughs will yield differences to what you experience.
Arenanet's commitment to producing hundreds or thousands of new DEs, across all zones of the game, by the end of the first year live, will just further ensure that areas you have been before will feel fresh and will always provide the opportunity to surprise you with content you haven't experienced before.
The game has been designed from the ground up to provide rewarding social game play. Level scaling ensures that you can always join lower level friends and guildmates in lower level zones, enjoy the content without trivializing it for your companions, all the while providing you XP and loot based on your true level. People will join guilds in GW2 to be sociable and enjoy sharing in various elements of game play, rather than with a focus on equiping people for participation in some artificial end game grind.
I've played over 125 hours of GW2 during the course of all the events and stress tests. I can honestly say I have barely scratched the surface of what the game has to offer and only experienced a small portion of the game world we were given access to, which was less than half of all the content that will be in the game at release.
When an Arenanet Dev said that they anticipate that all tolled, all the PvE content in the game, at release, could provide up to 1,000 hours of non-repeating game play, I believe them based on my play test experiences.
"End Game"
The entire game is end game. However, that doesn't mean that there isn't higher level content designed to keep people who have advanced up the learning curve challenged and happy. There may be no gear/stat treadmill, but that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of objectives for achievers to chase, or plenty of prestige items for those who really want to work for something they can show off to signify their skill and commitment.
The lack of end game gear/stat grind, combined with level scaling, means that people who play to have fun playing have an entire game's worth of content to chose from once they reach the level cap. It also means that people who like to play together, can continue to do so, regardless of how they decide to continue on with their game experience. Some will continue to play a single character, earning XP to earn additional skill points. Others will make alts to experience the game from a different perspective. They can still get together and find content they can play together, regardless of level disparity.
The game is also perfect for groups of friends and guilds where people progress at very different rates and available play time differs significantly as well.
Players who want to keep playing a game for achievments can find that ehre. Players who want to keep playing a game for prestige can find that here. More importantly, players that want to keep playing a game because of the friends they brought to the game and other friends they have made in game will always be able to play together and have fun doing so!
A lot of people stick with games like WoW due to the guilds they have bonded with. Sometimes guilds do silly, fun activities together, but in most games, the only game play that a guild can focus on playing together is end game raiding. A lot of people who really don't care for raids and aren't really concerned with the carrot on the stick still do so in order to share play time with their guildmates.
In GW2, a guild has the entire vast game world to play together, rather than repeating over and over again the very limited content available in end game raids, where after a few runs everyone just does things by rote, with very little variation.
TLDR
The world is massive. The amount of content is massive. The nature of the content and the level scaling system amplifies the replayability of existing content exponentially. Ongoing free DE additions will provide a steady stream of fresh content, which will keep the world feeling fresh and alive.
The game is designed to encourage and reward social play, without making it mandatory and without ever punishing people for playing along side others. The social experience, lack of end game treadmill and level scaling will ensure that people who want to play together will always be able to do so, reguardless of character level or position in any other form of game progression.
There are still things for achievers to achieve and prestige to be gained for those who seek glory, but first and foremost this is a game people play to have fun and, once you reach the level cap, the entire game's worth of content is open to you.
Conclusion
When you add lack of subscription fees, the best RvR style mass combat since DaoC and a healthy, competative sPvP experience onto the massive amounts of PvE content and world space, this game offers the perfect recipe for a continually growing MMORPG that will be able to boast active player retention numbers most likely never before seen in the genre!
I'll sigbet you. If you lose you have to put "SWTOR is the greatest mmo ever." If I lose you can come up with something for me to put in my sig.
lol
I did make it clear it was unreasonable. But I'll put that in my sig if I'm wrong whenever they release the numbers. If I hit the long shot and it starts snowing in hell, you have to put, "GW2 WvW is not P2W."
Deal.
For the record I don't think GW2 is P2W.
I do think at launch that Gems can give a player an advantage in WvWvW. I don't think this will last forever though.
Yeah, I don't think that's going to stop people from thinking you're a GW2 fanboy when they see that sig.
Yeah it will sell well initially, but as the person above said...
People like progression. They want to advance days, weeks and months after hitting level cap. Cosmetic advancement isn't that much of an incentive for many people. My friend, when I introduced him to the game, has gotten very hyped-up about it, but just gave me a confused look when I said there was 'no gear progression' after a point.
Not many people like a gear grind. But I still want to advance my character and get more powerful after launch.
You say this, yet 7 million people bought GW1 to date ......
Your numbers are more than misleading. That is the total box sales of all Guild Wars games to include the expansions. That would bring the actual unique purchases a long way down from that number. Guild Wars was pretty successful but still a niche game none the less.
Yeah maybe 7 million unique people was a little misleading, but it does not change the fact that this franchise is huge. A few million people out there don't care about grinding gear. Continue reading my post and you will see why I feel that a gear grind is not necessary for a successful MMO. (Especially one w/o a sub)
Massive population drop and server merges in 2-3 months.
Since this has universally been the trend with every new MMO, it's going to be extremely hard to resist the urge to shout, "I told you this game will continue to grow after release! I told you so! I told you so!" when this doesn't happen to GW2.
Massive population drop and server merges in 2-3 months.
Since this has universally been the trend with every new MMO, it's going to be extremely hard to resist the urge to shout, "I told you this game will continue to grow after release! I told you so! I told you so!" when this doesn't happen to GW2.
UO, DAoC, EQ, WoW are a few that never dropped servers till years into the game brah... not months. I do agree after 2-3months the game will be at about 500K-700K subs and probably even less.
"The King and the Pawn return to the same box at the end of the game"
Massive population drop and server merges in 2-3 months.
Since this has universally been the trend with every new MMO, it's going to be extremely hard to resist the urge to shout, "I told you this game will continue to grow after release! I told you so! I told you so!" when this doesn't happen to GW2.
UO, DAoC, EQ, WoW are a few that never dropped servers till years into the game brah... not months. I do agree after 2-3months the game will be at about 500K-700K subs and probably even less.
Heh, by "with every new MMO" i literally meant new, recent MMOs, post-WoW. Obviously we know WoW grew. It didn't have 11 million players in December of 2004. And a few hits that came before WoW grew according to their respective numbers. However, no game since WoW has come close to even retaining initial sales numbers, let alone growing and thriving far after release. There have been many prospects some thought promising: LotrO, WAR, Aion, AoC, Rift, SW, among others, and very recently people are looking to Tera and TSW. But none have been able to do it, (though the verdict is still out on the later 2 of course.)
I won't do a two month prediction. I will do a christam prediction. By X-mas, I can expect the game to reasonable sell 2.5million maybe 3million if word of mouth takes off. Pretty sure they've already turned a reasonable profit (60million)
Originally posted by xpiher Game has already sold just over 2mil I won't do a two month prediction. I will do a christam prediction. By X-mas, I can expect the game to reasonable sell 2.5million maybe 3million if word of mouth takes off. Pretty sure they've already turned a reasonable profit (60million)
Where is the source on the 2 mill?
TSW - AoC - Aion - WOW - EVE - Fallen Earth - Co - Rift - || XNA C# Java Development
Originally posted by xpiher Game has already sold just over 2mil
I won't do a two month prediction. I will do a christam prediction. By X-mas, I can expect the game to reasonable sell 2.5million maybe 3million if word of mouth takes off. Pretty sure they've already turned a reasonable profit (60million)
Official statistics? *shrug* may be. But I don't think all of them will end up buying; and I don't think a lot of people who haven't preordered will.
I'm sorry the other guy messed it up, over 1 million pre purchases.
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
Don't worry. If and when the numbers are released, we'll enjoy arguing about their validity, too.
/headdesk
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Comments
Someone I know on here thinks there's 20 million mmorpg players.
I don't think there's really that many.
2 - 3 million at best. A bit better than that by Dec. because I think by then the word of mouth that it's a MMO without monthly fees will see it spread as a gift.
a yo ho ho
I'm not in the bet because I'd never go 9 million by Christmas. Maybe lifetime. But not by Christmas.
But if you lost that bet, that's what I'd make you put in your sig, too...
Not in the US/Europe. World wide, easily. Probably 12 million US/Europe active MMO players. Some coming in, some going out. I'm not playing any MMOs right now. There's nothing out there, except GW2 and TSW that interest me and I can't start two new MMOs at the same time.
So, TSW is on hold for 6 months. Then I'll pick it up, while pushing GW2 to #2 and still doing my occassional foray into LOTRO.
I have no freakin idea.
Your numbers are more than misleading. That is the total box sales of all Guild Wars games to include the expansions. That would bring the actual unique purchases a long way down from that number. Guild Wars was pretty successful but still a niche game none the less.
2 months after release? I think it will probably break 2 million. I'll go with 2.2 million copies.
This is quite true, I personally dont see a large-scale retention of players, it simply doesnt have the right game design for it (read: grind and vertical progression). The levelling to max level is incredibly quick and easy and I dont see the majority of players sticking around after they've reached that. I'm more than willing to be proven wrong, in fact I hope I am - I'm just stating my opinion. The big issue here for GW2 isnt box sales, its retention, and it'll be far more important to know the active number of players than simply the number of box sales several months after release (unfortunately I doubt we'll ever know active player numbers).
Maybe... but by that logic WoW should have failed a long time ago. Oh sure, WoW has gear progression and even raiding... but how long has it been since WoW got a content update? How many people are maxed out in progression and just sitting on mailboxes in town doing nothing significant until panderps come out? I know that back when I played I had to wait weeks and months between content updates but I didn't quit WoW when I ran out of gear to progress into. Of course alts helped with this boredom.
It will be very easy to hit 80 but I don't think it will be nearly as easy to obtain a full gear set with the proper stats for your build and then transmute the set for the looks you want. Being able to continue leveling when you hit 80 and gain skill points that can be used to obtain gear (some of which is needed for legendaries) will keep people playing after reaching max level. Then there's always alting, right?
I can't wait to see what happens.
To respond to a few things in this thread:
GW1 sales numbers
Yes, it's 7+ Million total box sales for the franchise. However, remember that all the Campaigns except for Eye of the North could be played stand alone. Also, a large portion of box sales are likely to have been multi-campaign editions, which counted as a single box, but would have counted towards the total number of sales for any particular Campaign. In short, there is no way to do anything but guess as to how many unique customers those 7+ million sales represent. However, it really doesn't matter. Any PC game franchise with 7+ Million total box sales is a large success, (GW1 is one of the most successful PC franchises).
Also, the two games are very different and GW2 will attract many more unique customers that GW1 did over it's run.
GW2 Player Retention
Throw entirely out of your thinking the idea that end game gear grind progressions are needed for an MMO to retain players. These kinds of gear grinds are necassary in many other titles, because the games have small worlds and maybe 80 hours of unique main game content. End game grinds have always been a poor substitute for actual content. The carrot on the stick is necassary in order to keep people playing and paying.
GW2 is a massive game, with a huge, immersive game world and many hundreds of hours of content. Level scaling ensures that as you level, all content below your level remains viable and rewarding. Dynamic Events, by their very nature, ensure that re-visiting areas of the game for additional play throughs will yield differences to what you experience.
Arenanet's commitment to producing hundreds or thousands of new DEs, across all zones of the game, by the end of the first year live, will just further ensure that areas you have been before will feel fresh and will always provide the opportunity to surprise you with content you haven't experienced before.
The game has been designed from the ground up to provide rewarding social game play. Level scaling ensures that you can always join lower level friends and guildmates in lower level zones, enjoy the content without trivializing it for your companions, all the while providing you XP and loot based on your true level. People will join guilds in GW2 to be sociable and enjoy sharing in various elements of game play, rather than with a focus on equiping people for participation in some artificial end game grind.
I've played over 125 hours of GW2 during the course of all the events and stress tests. I can honestly say I have barely scratched the surface of what the game has to offer and only experienced a small portion of the game world we were given access to, which was less than half of all the content that will be in the game at release.
When an Arenanet Dev said that they anticipate that all tolled, all the PvE content in the game, at release, could provide up to 1,000 hours of non-repeating game play, I believe them based on my play test experiences.
"End Game"
The entire game is end game. However, that doesn't mean that there isn't higher level content designed to keep people who have advanced up the learning curve challenged and happy. There may be no gear/stat treadmill, but that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of objectives for achievers to chase, or plenty of prestige items for those who really want to work for something they can show off to signify their skill and commitment.
The lack of end game gear/stat grind, combined with level scaling, means that people who play to have fun playing have an entire game's worth of content to chose from once they reach the level cap. It also means that people who like to play together, can continue to do so, regardless of how they decide to continue on with their game experience. Some will continue to play a single character, earning XP to earn additional skill points. Others will make alts to experience the game from a different perspective. They can still get together and find content they can play together, regardless of level disparity.
The game is also perfect for groups of friends and guilds where people progress at very different rates and available play time differs significantly as well.
Players who want to keep playing a game for achievments can find that ehre. Players who want to keep playing a game for prestige can find that here. More importantly, players that want to keep playing a game because of the friends they brought to the game and other friends they have made in game will always be able to play together and have fun doing so!
A lot of people stick with games like WoW due to the guilds they have bonded with. Sometimes guilds do silly, fun activities together, but in most games, the only game play that a guild can focus on playing together is end game raiding. A lot of people who really don't care for raids and aren't really concerned with the carrot on the stick still do so in order to share play time with their guildmates.
In GW2, a guild has the entire vast game world to play together, rather than repeating over and over again the very limited content available in end game raids, where after a few runs everyone just does things by rote, with very little variation.
TLDR
The world is massive. The amount of content is massive. The nature of the content and the level scaling system amplifies the replayability of existing content exponentially. Ongoing free DE additions will provide a steady stream of fresh content, which will keep the world feeling fresh and alive.
The game is designed to encourage and reward social play, without making it mandatory and without ever punishing people for playing along side others. The social experience, lack of end game treadmill and level scaling will ensure that people who want to play together will always be able to do so, reguardless of character level or position in any other form of game progression.
There are still things for achievers to achieve and prestige to be gained for those who seek glory, but first and foremost this is a game people play to have fun and, once you reach the level cap, the entire game's worth of content is open to you.
Conclusion
When you add lack of subscription fees, the best RvR style mass combat since DaoC and a healthy, competative sPvP experience onto the massive amounts of PvE content and world space, this game offers the perfect recipe for a continually growing MMORPG that will be able to boast active player retention numbers most likely never before seen in the genre!
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
2 months in...
3,678,921
Oh snap, ish just got real.
Massive population drop and server merges in 2-3 months.
Yeah maybe 7 million unique people was a little misleading, but it does not change the fact that this franchise is huge. A few million people out there don't care about grinding gear. Continue reading my post and you will see why I feel that a gear grind is not necessary for a successful MMO. (Especially one w/o a sub)
Since this has universally been the trend with every new MMO, it's going to be extremely hard to resist the urge to shout, "I told you this game will continue to grow after release! I told you so! I told you so!" when this doesn't happen to GW2.
First realistic prediction
UO, DAoC, EQ, WoW are a few that never dropped servers till years into the game brah... not months. I do agree after 2-3months the game will be at about 500K-700K subs and probably even less.
in two month i will quoted this again just so we can LOL
Not to mention they have already sold over 1M prepurchases... they both lost the race before it even began
Respect, walk
Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me?
- PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
Heh, by "with every new MMO" i literally meant new, recent MMOs, post-WoW. Obviously we know WoW grew. It didn't have 11 million players in December of 2004. And a few hits that came before WoW grew according to their respective numbers. However, no game since WoW has come close to even retaining initial sales numbers, let alone growing and thriving far after release. There have been many prospects some thought promising: LotrO, WAR, Aion, AoC, Rift, SW, among others, and very recently people are looking to Tera and TSW. But none have been able to do it, (though the verdict is still out on the later 2 of course.)
Game has already sold just over 2mil
I won't do a two month prediction. I will do a christam prediction. By X-mas, I can expect the game to reasonable sell 2.5million maybe 3million if word of mouth takes off. Pretty sure they've already turned a reasonable profit (60million)
Games:
Currently playing:Nothing
Will play: Darkfall: Unholy Wars
Past games:
Guild Wars 2 - Xpiher Duminous
Xpiher's GW2
GW 1 - Xpiher Duminous
Darkfall - Xpiher Duminous (NA) retired
AoC - Xpiher (Tyranny) retired
Warhammer - Xpiher
Where is the source on the 2 mill?
TSW - AoC - Aion - WOW - EVE - Fallen Earth - Co - Rift - || XNA C# Java Development
http://techland.time.com/2012/08/28/guild-wars-2-sales-one-million-pre-served-record-400000-playing-at-once/
It's at about 1.7 million at the moment not counting Asia. Most figures I've seen. MSNbc had the figure at 1 million playing before launch on Tuesday.
a yo ho ho
I'm sorry the other guy messed it up, over 1 million pre purchases.
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
How about this and has been done before.
One of the original threads on GW2 sales predictions
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/5253880#5253880
Who cares how many boxes it sells in the first 2 months? What matters is how many are still playing 2 months in, not how many boxes left shelves...
Go ask AoC and SWTOR what initial box sales mean in the long run.....
Don't worry. If and when the numbers are released, we'll enjoy arguing about their validity, too.
/headdesk
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.