If all their doing is selling boxes to make a profit then its going to be very hard to make a fail condition for the game because you cant see a "sub reduction" or a revenue loss easily.
If after a year, the game only has 10,000 active players its not going matter at all because the boxes have already been sold right?.
Exception to this is the cash shop, But that relies on people actually buying to from there to make a profit anyway.
I'd like a link to where ArenaNet said that they only rely on box sales to accumulate their money back or make a profit?
I think they are relying on boxsales + cash shop to get their money back and make profit.
Also, they will rely on expansions, like GW1, and they'll know if it's worth making any after they see their playerbase numbers after a couple of months.
Yes millions might have bought the game, but only thousands might actually be still playing, which from a business point of view means that possibly only thousands will buy expansions (unless of course you don't need the original game like GW1, unlike WoW where you need all previous games.)
Their are loads of things to be taken into account to determine if this game will be a major success, a moderate success or a failure.
I do think ArenaNet has a successful game on their hands, not as successful as people on these boards think, but possibly as successful as GW1.
(Still nowhere near WoW which ArenaNet has said they are aiming for, stupidly.)
If all their doing is selling boxes to make a profit then its going to be very hard to make a fail condition for the game because you cant see a "sub reduction" or a revenue loss easily.
If after a year, the game only has 10,000 active players its not going matter at all because the boxes have already been sold right?.
Exception to this is the cash shop, But that relies on people actually buying to from there to make a profit anyway.
I'd like a link to where ArenaNet said that they only rely on box sales to accumulate their money back or make a profit?
I think they are relying on boxsales + cash shop to get their money back and make profit.
I'll see if I can find the quote, but they talked about this quite a long time ago. I think the confusion here is that they anticipate the box sales alone will make their money back & turn a small profit. The cash shop is basically there purely for profit, and to help kickstart the addition of new content. Keep in mind that GW1 didn't have a cash shop until an expansion or 2 in. They made their money off the box sales alone, but the cash shop helped them continue to churn out new free content (like winds of change), and also help fund future projects (gw2). All indicators also point to this being also true for GW2.
Also, they will rely on expansions, like GW1, and they'll know if it's worth making any after they see their playerbase numbers after a couple of months.
We'll honestly have to wait & see how they handle expansions, but if they implement it at all like the first, expansions will basically take care of themselves. Again, they can keep themselves going off the cashshop alone, but the addition of expansions not only keep the game fresh & people interested, but it also increases their revenue enough that they don't have to struggle to release new content.
Yes millions might have bought the game, but only thousands might actually be still playing, which from a business point of view means that possibly only thousands will buy expansions (unless of course you don't need the original game like GW1, unlike WoW where you need all previous games.)
Again, this comes down to how they plan on implementing them. In the first game, you only needed the original game for the expansions. All of the expansions were independant of each other, and I met quite a few players who purchased one, but not the other, etc.
- From a business standpoint this game doesn't care about active users nearly as much. As long as there is enough for the dynamic content, the game will be fine. Like what happened in GW1, it's also not uncommon to see players who enjoy the game, take a break, and then come back for each new expansion. This is something that even happens in games like WoW.
Their are loads of things to be taken into account to determine if this game will be a major success, a moderate success or a failure.
I think financially the game is already looking to be a success. For what they managed to put into the game, this wasn't even one of the most expensive MMOs to make. Yet, they've already recouped millions off the preorders. The real issue will be how well their new mechanics hold up over time.
I do think ArenaNet has a successful game on their hands, not as successful as people on these boards think, but possibly as successful as GW1.
And here's the funny thing.. GW1 sold 7 million units (yes this includes the various expansions). However, that is extremely impressive. Most MMOs don't do that. Even SWTOR didn't come anywhere close to that, and they have one of the easiest IPs to sell on the market.
If GW2 is 'only as successful as GW1' then it is already a colossal success in the MMO genre.
(Still nowhere near WoW which ArenaNet has said they are aiming for, stupidly.)
EDIT: and I agree about the WoW comment. Not sure it was a smart decision on their part, but then again they are smarter than a lot of people want to give them credit for. So maybe we are the naive ones. It is clear, though, that WoW is no longer at its 15m player status, though. They probably won't beat WoW @ it's prime, but they have a much better chance of stacking up to it in it's current state. I know a lot of former WoW players are making the shift.
Anyone have any reliable or semi-reliable figure on the development costs?
in 2007 Jeff Strain says the following .
If you are starting today and don't have at least three years and $30 million dollars, consider developing in another genre
(he also btw estimates that WOW costed at least 40 mill) . so 5 years and from 140 to double the staff now. IF and its purely speculation, but if thesse numbers are related so that he actual talks about GW2 spending 10 mill a year with 140 people, in 5 years , with more money spend last years it could be 60+ million. Still not reliable or even semi-reliable.
Comments
I'd like a link to where ArenaNet said that they only rely on box sales to accumulate their money back or make a profit?
I think they are relying on boxsales + cash shop to get their money back and make profit.
Also, they will rely on expansions, like GW1, and they'll know if it's worth making any after they see their playerbase numbers after a couple of months.
Yes millions might have bought the game, but only thousands might actually be still playing, which from a business point of view means that possibly only thousands will buy expansions (unless of course you don't need the original game like GW1, unlike WoW where you need all previous games.)
Their are loads of things to be taken into account to determine if this game will be a major success, a moderate success or a failure.
I do think ArenaNet has a successful game on their hands, not as successful as people on these boards think, but possibly as successful as GW1.
(Still nowhere near WoW which ArenaNet has said they are aiming for, stupidly.)
Anyone have any reliable or semi-reliable figure on the development costs?
in 2007 Jeff Strain says the following .
If you are starting today and don't have at least three years and $30 million dollars, consider developing in another genre
(he also btw estimates that WOW costed at least 40 mill) . so 5 years and from 140 to double the staff now. IF and its purely speculation, but if thesse numbers are related so that he actual talks about GW2 spending 10 mill a year with 140 people, in 5 years , with more money spend last years it could be 60+ million. Still not reliable or even semi-reliable.
Maybe in your eyes, but when it comes to my money and play-time, your eyes are irrelevant.
I doubt that we'll know any time soon. Developers don't really disclose that information unless they absolutely have to.