GW1 survived mainly because people could jump between American and European servers. A few years ago, the population dipped in the Euro servers so everyone just made the American servers the new main base and voila, the population was back again. If something similar happens again to GW2, then everyone will just move to the most populated servers without Anet even asking them to.
Could you do it for free or did you have to pay to do this in GW1 too? The question is more regarding the WvW aspect, since for PvE you wouldn't have a problem playing on another server.
No payment in GW1, but because of WvW there has to be a payment in GW2.
Yes, I know it makes sence to have it, but at the same time it might limit the phenomenon zero was talking about. That's why I was asking.
If all their doing is selling boxes to make a profit then its going to be very hard to make a fail condition for the game because you cant see a "sub reduction" or a revenue loss easily.
If after a year, the game only has 10,000 active players its not going matter at all because the boxes have already been sold right?.
Exception to this is the cash shop, But that relies on people actually buying to from there to make a profit anyway.
It is already a success, because it is achieveing exactly what it wants to achieve on it's own terms.
Financially speaking, it is a fail if they shut it down because the profit generated dosen't support it.
that should be the only fail,if it fails your reason for playing,i don't care if anyone makes a profit or not.nor frankly do i care if it is a wow killer,cause wow already failed for me years ago.so what other think of it in reference to wow is irrelevant.of course gw1 already failed as well.you should play a games based on what you like not anyone else.
Sales tells you how the hype worked, but an mmorpg without an active community is a failure. If the game only has a handful of highly populated servers six months after release the game failed.
Answer from players: Hardly any active players in the game. I disagree with you that players would overlook empty servers "because the boxes have already been sold...".
Answer from players: Hardly any active players in the game. I disagree with you that players would overlook empty servers "because the boxes have already been sold...".
Fail for the publisher would be not to make a profit.
Fail for the community would be for it to flop and not have a high enough pop to sustain WvWvW.
Neither of those conditions are likely. The original Guild Wars is going strong. The great thing about the payment model is people can just leave it installed and play it when they feel like it. You wont see the classic drop from the ...to sub or not...model.
Being a "this glass has 50% water" in it kinda guy, I think it's easier to focus on how it will succeed.
Revenue for GW1 allowed the game to be made in the first place. Pre-purchase sales are continuing to drive development. A lack of success would occur when continued box sales, coupled with a lack of revenue from GW1 and cash shop sales, forced the developer to A) forgo plans for expansion start laying off.
At the moment the game has a strong enough following I don't see that happening for some time. Hell, I'm directly opposed to cash shops in most games, and I'm considering buying a char slot or two eventually. Could interest drop off in the future? Possibly. Continued development will push interest, interest will push development. We'll see.
Originally posted by friednietz Idk OP, I recognize you as the guy that said you hated when people "give their opinions as facts" when players posted what they were dissappointed with in that other game...then wrote that no one rezzes or help other players in trouble (I believe you used the term "no loyalty") in GW2's BWE.
Not exactly sure what your on about..i'm always happy and encourage people to express their opinion..But if what you are referencing is what i'm thinking then no..personal attacks using opinions are not cool...
Btw.....no need to go personal with this, i presented a discussion, debating about me personally is not relevant.
Now a thread about how we can measure GW2's failure. Luckily this thread is easily answered in the most G.E.D. way possible:
"Failure condition" to be precise, i could try and apply this thread to any game but i cant because gw2 is unique in its marketing strategy.
Answer from players: Hardly any active players in the game. I disagree with you that players would overlook empty servers "because the boxes have already been sold...".
Never said anything of the sort i merely pointed out that once arena net gets its money the deal is sealed weather or not people "exit" after 2 days or 10 years.
Havnt watched but its pretty clear they want close to X projected profits as a company and a fun, populated game as developers.
Answer from both: Dismal number of original and expansion boxes sold. And of course, if the game shuts down.
An obvious one, Its always sad if an mmorpg shuts down imo.
Answer some might like best: In true shady fashion Anet has setup this OVERHYPED game in a way that's impossible to tell when it's failing.The fanbois are so lucky otherwise when this wowclone without engame called GW2 suffered HUGE drops in subcriptions it would be MASSACRED just like how they massacre and rag on other people's REFRESHING games.
Thats way beyond the scope of the conversation..
Please don't ban or flag me. I'm new at forum PvP.
For the most part you made a good response
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Fail condition no.1 would be that the game releases unoptimized POS like it is right now.
As of BWE2, the game was already better than any MMORPG released in the last five years has been months after launch. As far as optimization, most of us realize that optimization is one of the last things you do. I already have seen an improvement between BWE1 and BWE2 on my system. I was able to play max everything in BWE2 with FPS averaging between 35-45 FPS, which is more than acceptable for an MMO.
Fail condition no.1 would be that the game releases unoptimized POS like it is right now.
Well for me it played very good. A friend and I both played On my ancient wifi and had little to no issues. I couldnt even run the tera demo. Anyway if it played as good as it did unoptimized I cant wait for the optomized build.
Doom and gloom thread started by a guy with a TSW avatar and signature... ok I'll bite...
Originally posted by heartless
Fail condition would be the same as it was in GW1--box sales.
If GW1's timeline is any indication, I would say that the an expansion will hit around one year after GW2 goes live. If a large chunk of accounts purchase the expansion, than the game is successful, if not, well hopefully the cash shop will be profitable enough as a fallback.
This, of course.
Since GW2 doesn't have monthly subscriptions, the developers will not be aiming at delivering huge grinds to make people play for longer, but at delivering quality fun content often to get regular cash incomes and to keep players buying the next expansions.
And at the end, the winner is the player... less grind, more quality fun content.
Respect, walk, what did you say? Respect, walk Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me? - PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
I've heard that somewhere else... And yes it is in beta until its not in beta anymore.
Lmfao.
Huge difference being, this game doesn't have a release date yet, and certain other games have been using that excuse right up until launch.
Also, just to note, for most players the game is running smooth as butter. Even in WvW most people were able to take part in fairly large fights with little-no lag. There were some FPS drops, but the vast majority of people stayed above ~20 fps. What still needs to be optimized are graphics at this stage are graphics. Which you will almost never see until shortly before release (for obvious reasons).
- As for 'fail conditions'. There's a number of potentials, depending on which perspective you look at.
Financially, this should be obvious.
Lifespan (how long it holds people's attention) There won't be a sub number, but I'm sure there will be tools to find out server populations. If not, people will get a rough feeling for the populations in areas like WvW where most players congregate. I think one of the biggest issues for the game atm, is the sheer size / scale of the content. People are going to be a lot more spread out (in PvE) than I think people realize atm, unles they are able to cram a lot more players in each server.
System / mechanic functionality: Are the game mechanics working the way they are supposed to post launch?
These are the 3 main ones that come to mind. I"m sure there are others as well.
If all their doing is selling boxes to make a profit then its going to be very hard to make a fail condition for the game because you cant see a "sub reduction" or a revenue loss easily.
If after a year, the game only has 10,000 active players its not going matter at all because the boxes have already been sold right?.
Exception to this is the cash shop, But that relies on people actually buying to from there to make a profit anyway.
Its the same "fail" condition as any other MMO. If it only has 10k active players they will shut the servers down. Thus, fail condition.
What players think is a "fail condition" actually doesnt matter at all. A true fail condition is when the games servers shut down. Because at that point you KNOW the game is no longer making any money. GW2 will be no diffrent. When the cash shop, box sales, and expansion sales stop making Anet money they will shut the servers down plain and simple. The exception are older games that a small verry supportive playerbase still plays and the company uses money from other games to keep the servers running. A prime example would be Asherons Call. There is still a small tight community playing that. Turbine continues to run thoes servers because of D&D and LOTRO profits now. But even if they shut down AC could you really call it a failed state after a decade+ of the servers being up?
Originally posted by NitthWhat would be the fail condition for GW2?If all their doing is selling boxes to make a profit then its going to be very hard to make a fail condition for the game because you cant see a "sub reduction" or a revenue loss easily.If after a year, the game only has 10,000 active players its not going matter at all because the boxes have already been sold right?.Exception to this is the cash shop, But that relies on people actually buying to from there to make a profit anyway.
Its the same "fail" condition as any other MMO. If it only has 10k active players they will shut the servers down. Thus, fail condition.
And my question is why, there is no money drain weather there is 10 people or 10000 playing. only factor here is the cash shop, and there is no guarantee anyone is going to use it.
What players think is a "fail condition" actually doesnt matter at all. A true fail condition is when the games servers shut down. Because at that point you KNOW the game is no longer making any money. GW2 will be no diffrent. When the cash shop, box sales, and expansion sales stop making Anet money they will shut the servers down plain and simple. The exception are older games that a small verry supportive playerbase still plays and the company uses money from other games to keep the servers running. A prime example would be Asherons Call. There is still a small tight community playing that. Turbine continues to run thoes servers because of D&D and LOTRO profits now. But even if they shut down AC could you really call it a failed state after a decade+ of the servers being up?
Im inclined to agree. If the server close its game over.
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Answer from players: Hardly any active players in the game. I disagree with you that players would overlook empty servers "because the boxes have already been sold...".
Never said anything of the sort i merely pointed out that once arena net gets its money the deal is sealed weather or not people "exit" after 2 days or 10 years.
What you say is true in B2P games except Anet has stated in the video I posted, that their vested interest is not only in selling GW2 but also selling its expansions. Hardly anyone would by expansions to and cash shop items in a game that is desolate. So to me that says that it matters greatly to Anet if people leave after 2 days or 10 years.
It also matter greatly to players if others leave in 2 days or 10 years because MMOs empty of other players are not as fun to play as well populated MMOs. So I think you can measure GW2 the same way you would measure a sub-based game for example. By refreshing the server status page at primetime! lol
Originally posted by friednietz Originally posted by NitthAnswer from players: Hardly any active players in the game. I disagree with you that players would overlook empty servers "because the boxes have already been sold...".
Never said anything of the sort i merely pointed out that once arena net gets its money the deal is sealed weather or not people "exit" after 2 days or 10 years. What you say is true in B2P games except Anet has stated in the video I posted, that their vested interest is not only in selling GW2 but also selling its expansions. Hardly anyone would by expansions to and cash shop items in a game that is desolate. So to me that says that it matters greatly to Anet if people leave after 2 days or 10 years. It also matter greatly to players if others leave in 2 days or 10 years because MMOs empty of other players are not as fun to play as well populated MMOs. So I think you can measure GW2 the same way you would measure a sub-based game for example. By refreshing the server status page at primetime! lol
I understand your points entirely.
Personally when I started the thread i came in here with a simple black and white financial headset on.
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Comments
Yes, I know it makes sence to have it, but at the same time it might limit the phenomenon zero was talking about. That's why I was asking.
It is already a success, because it is achieveing exactly what it wants to achieve on it's own terms.
Financially speaking, it is a fail if they shut it down because the profit generated dosen't support it.
that should be the only fail,if it fails your reason for playing,i don't care if anyone makes a profit or not.nor frankly do i care if it is a wow killer,cause wow already failed for me years ago.so what other think of it in reference to wow is irrelevant.of course gw1 already failed as well.you should play a games based on what you like not anyone else.
Sales tells you how the hype worked, but an mmorpg without an active community is a failure. If the game only has a handful of highly populated servers six months after release the game failed.
[mod edit]
Answer from players: Hardly any active players in the game. I disagree with you that players would overlook empty servers "because the boxes have already been sold...".
Answer from Anet: http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/06/30/the-mmo-report-guild-wars-2-edition/ Skip to 13 minute mark
Answer from both: Dismal number of original and expansion boxes sold. And of course, if the game shuts down.
[mod edit]
We don't know if GW2 will be successful or not I have highlighted some things and again it is your opinion - no real facts there.
If GW2 will sell as many boxes as GW1, then it will be successful and we won't know that until it is released.
its the same retail model Guild Wars used 7 years ago when it launched in April 2005
EQ2 fan sites
Fail for the publisher would be not to make a profit.
Fail for the community would be for it to flop and not have a high enough pop to sustain WvWvW.
Neither of those conditions are likely. The original Guild Wars is going strong. The great thing about the payment model is people can just leave it installed and play it when they feel like it. You wont see the classic drop from the ...to sub or not...model.
Being a "this glass has 50% water" in it kinda guy, I think it's easier to focus on how it will succeed.
Revenue for GW1 allowed the game to be made in the first place. Pre-purchase sales are continuing to drive development. A lack of success would occur when continued box sales, coupled with a lack of revenue from GW1 and cash shop sales, forced the developer to A) forgo plans for expansion
start laying off.
At the moment the game has a strong enough following I don't see that happening for some time. Hell, I'm directly opposed to cash shops in most games, and I'm considering buying a char slot or two eventually. Could interest drop off in the future? Possibly. Continued development will push interest, interest will push development. We'll see.
to be clear, ANET never said GW2 will be a wow killer
some people think this because ANET has said they want GW2 to be the most popular mmo
and make the assumption that GW2 has to take a big chunk of players leaving WOW to do this
two fallacies with that assumption
1. Players can be active in both games, example Annual sub to WOW and they bought GW2
2. ANET hopes to attract gamers that are not mmo gamers -- hoping to grow the mmo market
EQ2 fan sites
Btw.....no need to go personal with this, i presented a discussion, debating about me personally is not relevant.
"Failure condition" to be precise, i could try and apply this thread to any game but i cant because gw2 is unique in its marketing strategy.Never said anything of the sort i merely pointed out that once arena net gets its money the deal is sealed weather or not people "exit" after 2 days or 10 years.Havnt watched but its pretty clear they want close to X projected profits as a company and a fun, populated game as developers.An obvious one, Its always sad if an mmorpg shuts down imo.Thats way beyond the scope of the conversation..
For the most part you made a good responseTSW - AoC - Aion - WOW - EVE - Fallen Earth - Co - Rift - || XNA C# Java Development
Gw1 was not a mmorpg, and thus not yielding a population estimate of gw2.
Which of course means the company has a greater estimated profit / Fail factor.
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Fail condition no.1 would be that the game releases unoptimized POS like it is right now.
that's why its in beta dude?
Also just a reminder, Its not weather gw2 will succeed or fail, its What are the condition's to make it a failure.
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I've heard that somewhere else... And yes it is in beta until its not in beta anymore.
As of BWE2, the game was already better than any MMORPG released in the last five years has been months after launch. As far as optimization, most of us realize that optimization is one of the last things you do. I already have seen an improvement between BWE1 and BWE2 on my system. I was able to play max everything in BWE2 with FPS averaging between 35-45 FPS, which is more than acceptable for an MMO.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
Well for me it played very good. A friend and I both played On my ancient wifi and had little to no issues. I couldnt even run the tera demo. Anyway if it played as good as it did unoptimized I cant wait for the optomized build.
Doom and gloom thread started by a guy with a TSW avatar and signature... ok I'll bite...
This, of course.
Since GW2 doesn't have monthly subscriptions, the developers will not be aiming at delivering huge grinds to make people play for longer, but at delivering quality fun content often to get regular cash incomes and to keep players buying the next expansions.
And at the end, the winner is the player... less grind, more quality fun content.
Respect, walk
Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me?
- PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
Lmfao.
Huge difference being, this game doesn't have a release date yet, and certain other games have been using that excuse right up until launch.
Also, just to note, for most players the game is running smooth as butter. Even in WvW most people were able to take part in fairly large fights with little-no lag. There were some FPS drops, but the vast majority of people stayed above ~20 fps. What still needs to be optimized are graphics at this stage are graphics. Which you will almost never see until shortly before release (for obvious reasons).
- As for 'fail conditions'. There's a number of potentials, depending on which perspective you look at.
Financially, this should be obvious.
Lifespan (how long it holds people's attention) There won't be a sub number, but I'm sure there will be tools to find out server populations. If not, people will get a rough feeling for the populations in areas like WvW where most players congregate. I think one of the biggest issues for the game atm, is the sheer size / scale of the content. People are going to be a lot more spread out (in PvE) than I think people realize atm, unles they are able to cram a lot more players in each server.
System / mechanic functionality: Are the game mechanics working the way they are supposed to post launch?
These are the 3 main ones that come to mind. I"m sure there are others as well.
Its the same "fail" condition as any other MMO. If it only has 10k active players they will shut the servers down. Thus, fail condition.
What players think is a "fail condition" actually doesnt matter at all. A true fail condition is when the games servers shut down. Because at that point you KNOW the game is no longer making any money. GW2 will be no diffrent. When the cash shop, box sales, and expansion sales stop making Anet money they will shut the servers down plain and simple. The exception are older games that a small verry supportive playerbase still plays and the company uses money from other games to keep the servers running. A prime example would be Asherons Call. There is still a small tight community playing that. Turbine continues to run thoes servers because of D&D and LOTRO profits now. But even if they shut down AC could you really call it a failed state after a decade+ of the servers being up?
the sales model still applies
GW1 is an "online only" game supporting millions of players on ANETs servers - with no server fees
GW1 sold 1 million during the 1st 5 months, 2 million its first year
http://www.guildwars.com/events/press/releases/default.php
-- well within range of population estimates of other mmo games
EQ2 fan sites
Hmm, thought this was something about conditions in the actual game. Disappointing.
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I understand your points entirely.
Personally when I started the thread i came in here with a simple black and white financial headset on.
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