Well nobody knows the exactly numbers from Swtor but people thought already months ago that there will be a decline in player numbers, 200-300k seems a bit low and would be a shock if the numbers were true.
You know what is crazy, the Arma 2 mod DayZ has already
130.000 unique players with ~ 1.600.000 characters and 150-200 servers up at certain times. And the numbers still grow...most servers are full with up to 50-70 players, there were at least 10.000 players online at the same time when i watched the server list.
This is even more crazy...a mod of a game goes totally viral without any advertising or marketing, reminds a bit on certain mods from Half Life in its times but HalfLife was a top seller already.. Arma 2 is topping the sales charts still on steam...unbelieveable.
Maybe this will show developers that peole want an immersive experience, and aren't scared of a little bit of a challenge. I bought Arma 2 for Dayz but now I am playing TCG island life. It is better than any MMO I have ever played. I think Arma 3 is gonna be a winner that will cross genres.
"I am not in a server with Gankers...THEY ARE IN A SERVER WITH ME!!!"
If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.
So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
You think Warhammer Online has over 200-300 thousand subs?
Just because a game dips to a certain subscriber number doesn't mean the game's not profitable. Games like WAR and SW:TOR sold enough boxes at launch to be profitable while E&B probably didn't sell many more boxes than 200 or 300 thousand. EA could simply downsize the dev team yet keep the servers online, milking subscription fees for years just like they've done with Warhammer Online.
If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.
So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
You think Warhammer Online has over 200-300 thousand subs?
Just because a game dips to a certain subscriber number doesn't mean the game's not profitable. Games like WAR and SW:TOR sold enough boxes at launch to be profitable while E&B probably didn't sell many more boxes than 200 or 300 thousand. EA could simply downsize the dev team yet keep the servers online, milking subscription fees for years just like they've done with Warhammer Online.
Sure and they would too. Thats just natural.
At 300k thats big solid chunk of change every month. Even far less. Maintaining servers and paying devs does cost, but not much compared to millions of dollars a month. So as long as it makes even a trickle of profit, Swtor will keep on chugging along. I honestly dont think they are at a "trickle of profit" yet either.
Yes they do have to make back their development costs, but they wont sack a game thats making any kind of money as long as it is doing so regardless of initial cost. I might foolishly spend a hundred bucks on a lemonade stand, but as long as people are buying and drinking, I'll keep it open for as long as I can. Same thing here. They'll probably make a profit too, or likely, they already have.
If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.
So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
E&B only had about 60k subs.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.
So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
You think Warhammer Online has over 200-300 thousand subs?
Just because a game dips to a certain subscriber number doesn't mean the game's not profitable. Games like WAR and SW:TOR sold enough boxes at launch to be profitable while E&B probably didn't sell many more boxes than 200 or 300 thousand. EA could simply downsize the dev team yet keep the servers online, milking subscription fees for years just like they've done with Warhammer Online.
I disagree with you that they sold enough boxes to be profitable.
First, they have $210M in startup capital to work off. And only 1.3M people are subbed (not a current number). So half of the monthly subs are already gone.
If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.
So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
You think Warhammer Online has over 200-300 thousand subs?
Just because a game dips to a certain subscriber number doesn't mean the game's not profitable. Games like WAR and SW:TOR sold enough boxes at launch to be profitable while E&B probably didn't sell many more boxes than 200 or 300 thousand. EA could simply downsize the dev team yet keep the servers online, milking subscription fees for years just like they've done with Warhammer Online.
In the case of SWTOR the 'elephant in the room' is the content production costs. A handful of devs can create a WAR mission and translate it. To create a SWTOR mission requires voice-actors with motion capture in multiple languages, sign-off by Lucas arts etc.
It's something a lot of people flagged up - it is not a game that can be run on a shoestring budget.
If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.
So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
Nah, EA wont close it down until it reaches 100K players.
But I still think this sounds a bit small, 500K I could accept.
Look at Tor Status and you will see Tor has 10 NA servers left the rest are dead empty servers. Europe has 3 servers left and the rest are dead and empty.
Presently the server status across North America and Euorope is as follows:
1 Medium Server
4 Light Servers
8 Very light Servers
156 Dead Servers
At the current rate of decline the 8 very light servers will all be dead servers within 2 weeks and the light servers will be on the verge of dying. Looking at the 13 light servers left at best ToR has 300k players playing likely less than 200k. But at the current rate of loss Tor will be down to 3 or 4 non dead servers in the next 3-4 weeks and will have less than 100k players.
EA/BW since release has engaged in a campaign of misinformation to make peiople believe the game is doing well and has a lot more subs than it actually has. The facts simply do not bear that out. Approaching server merges their latest attempt at deception is the "Mega Server" scam. They want people to believe there will be mega servers taking the place of all these empty servers. Looking at Tor Status on a daily bas since launch one can quickly see they do not have the population to support such mega servers. Rather EA/Bioware realize that at the current decline the population will only be able to support 3-4 servers at most. But they can save face and keep telling people they are successful with their mega server scam. Plus it gives the fanboys a reason to make post after post telling people how successful Tor is.
With only 13 light servers left it is not arguable that there are mroe than 300k players left. The Titantic is sinking and its almost entirely under water now. There is nothing that can be done for this game at least in the short term. Many games have recovered from bad launches but it takes years. With the SW brand name and a few years of development time it could have a revivial down the road and be a 100-300k sub game. But at least in the short term it is sinking quite fast.
Aren't we fast approaching the point when they have to reveal numbers? Why specualte when we already know who ever the speculator is will simply skew the numbers more towards what they hope to be the case?
Fans will try to make your numberless math reach the high end while haters will try to make them reach the low end from your source I really don't see where you come up with the numbers without making the same mistake many on this site do, by looking at how you feel about the game and trying to extrapolate your feelings onto all those who may be playing the game.
I'm just wondering when the major review sites will come out of the woodwork and actually write honest articles about how shitty the game really is and how poorly it's performed, instead of perpetually shoveling bullshit.
Probably when the bribe money runs out. That's my best guess.
I'm just wondering when the major review sites will come out of the woodwork and actually write honest articles about how shitty the game really is and how poorly it's performed, instead of perpetually shoveling bullshit.
Probably when the bribe money runs out. That's my best guess.
Me too. This site for instance continued to fawn over it until it went eerily silent regarding the game a little over a month ago.
Swotor with its game of the year award is still healthy and attracts a lot of people, not only new content will be provided soon but devs also thinking about to change the name of the game with the next patch.
It will be probably called Guild Wars 2 or SecretWorldOnline but they cant decide yet.
...nah seriously, but are all these servers with grey names more or less dead ? What does 1.0 or 0.98 means... I did dread that in the meanwhile on many light servers are only a handfull players left.
My prediction was that subs would drop to < 1m after D3 and GW2 release and < 500k after 1 year... Of course, I was called a hater. Looks like D3 was already enough to seriously drop subs. It's almost a little sad, but hey - EA and Bioware deserved it after all the crap they pulled lately...
edit: btw making predictions and hatin on games: Elder Scrolls Online will flop even harder.
My prediction was that subs would drop to < 1m after D3 and GW2 release and < 500k after 1 year... Of course, I was called a hater. Looks like D3 was already enough to seriously drop subs. It's almost a little sad, but hey - EA and Bioware deserved it after all the crap they pulled lately...
edit: btw making predictions and hatin on games: Elder Scrolls Online will flop even harder.
Hate towards swtor in mmorpg.com? thats something new!!. You guys just never give up right?, dont really matter how hard you want to see swtor fail, it wont happen. Is the most successful p2p MMO post WoW, it have more subs than any other P2P MMO but WoW in the market, and still you are talking about swtor as a fail?. People already bored of d3 you can find a lot of post on swtor.com of people talking about ¨bored of d3¨ ¨coming back to swtor¨, and gw2 is a B2P MMO, moslty will be a 2nd game for everyone, is coming in september or even after that, and swtor have enough content for the rest of the year to keep the subs numbers over 1 mill or more by the end of the year. The haters at this point are just pathetic more than 6 months of wrong predictions but they still keep talking about ¨the fail of swtor¨, and guess what, they are still wrong from any point of view.
Looking at the population trends for some of the servers, they are hitting the 'Full' status during the day. The average population is down, but the total number of people playing is not decreasing as quickly. The people are playing less, but they're still playing.
I'm not saying that's good. I can usually tell when I'm not going to play a game much longer, and it's when I'm not logged in that long.
However, Bioware has a chance here. There are people logging in, probably just seeing if anything interesting is happening, has happened, checking auctions, etc. Bioware needs to get something out to grab those people and get them back into the game.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Not that low, somewhere between 500k and 1mil I reckon. I don't believe anything ea say, so I'm sure 1.3 is a massaged figure, but I also don't believe its as low as that.
200k-300k is actually eminently reasonable and believable for a big MMO that hasn't proved to be a runaway success after launch. Conversion rates between box purhcasers and long-term subscriptions are always very low in the MMORPG industry. 7-8:1 is about the norm. The figures stated by EA of 1.7 million and then 1.3 million 'active accounts' were always considered bullshit by anyone with any experience of the industry.
I am not arguing exact numbers, but I am pretty sure the number of *active* players is pretty low now. I guess lots of people have their account activated waiting.
You know, EVERY professional review site praised SWTOR into the heavens! That so angered me, because it just contributed to leaving things as bad as they are. Game companies have just made them immune to ANY critique these days. God this sad trainwreck is so painful to watch.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Comments
I looked up Star Wars: The Old Republic on xfire (it's the only place where one can get real stats) and it seems to still be doing ok. For games in general it is still the 4th played game (http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/) for MMOs it is the second most popular (http://www.xfire.com/genre/mmo/massively_multiplayer_online/).
I don't think it is time to panic.
When is the next Investors Meeting? Anyone know?
Maybe this will show developers that peole want an immersive experience, and aren't scared of a little bit of a challenge. I bought Arma 2 for Dayz but now I am playing TCG island life. It is better than any MMO I have ever played. I think Arma 3 is gonna be a winner that will cross genres.
"I am not in a server with Gankers...THEY ARE IN A SERVER WITH ME!!!"
it would have to go to levels less than warhammer online for this game to close
they are still floggin that dead horse and charging a sub for it
You think Warhammer Online has over 200-300 thousand subs?
Just because a game dips to a certain subscriber number doesn't mean the game's not profitable. Games like WAR and SW:TOR sold enough boxes at launch to be profitable while E&B probably didn't sell many more boxes than 200 or 300 thousand. EA could simply downsize the dev team yet keep the servers online, milking subscription fees for years just like they've done with Warhammer Online.
Sure and they would too. Thats just natural.
At 300k thats big solid chunk of change every month. Even far less. Maintaining servers and paying devs does cost, but not much compared to millions of dollars a month. So as long as it makes even a trickle of profit, Swtor will keep on chugging along. I honestly dont think they are at a "trickle of profit" yet either.
Yes they do have to make back their development costs, but they wont sack a game thats making any kind of money as long as it is doing so regardless of initial cost. I might foolishly spend a hundred bucks on a lemonade stand, but as long as people are buying and drinking, I'll keep it open for as long as I can. Same thing here. They'll probably make a profit too, or likely, they already have.
E&B only had about 60k subs.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
I should think most of players from every MMO and single players have migrated to Diablo 3 and Tera.
Remember, Diablo 3 sold 6 million copies.
Pardon my English as it is not my 1st language
Well you must understand that many people pay sub but because of nice weather outside and summer coming people are not so much on computers
I disagree with you that they sold enough boxes to be profitable.
First, they have $210M in startup capital to work off. And only 1.3M people are subbed (not a current number). So half of the monthly subs are already gone.
Monthly overhead costs (payroll, utilities, rent, supplies, etc).
LA licensing fee.
Hero Engine licensing fee.
Marketing.
Retailers get a cut of that $60.
I just don't see it. I'm very interested in what the next Investors Meeting is going to show.
In the case of SWTOR the 'elephant in the room' is the content production costs. A handful of devs can create a WAR mission and translate it. To create a SWTOR mission requires voice-actors with motion capture in multiple languages, sign-off by Lucas arts etc.
It's something a lot of people flagged up - it is not a game that can be run on a shoestring budget.
Nah, EA wont close it down until it reaches 100K players.
But I still think this sounds a bit small, 500K I could accept.
Aren't we fast approaching the point when they have to reveal numbers? Why specualte when we already know who ever the speculator is will simply skew the numbers more towards what they hope to be the case?
Fans will try to make your numberless math reach the high end while haters will try to make them reach the low end from your source I really don't see where you come up with the numbers without making the same mistake many on this site do, by looking at how you feel about the game and trying to extrapolate your feelings onto all those who may be playing the game.
Ha ha. This.
I imagine they will once they receive all their severance. They're probably under contract not to say anything if they want their money.
http://f.cl.ly/items/3n15423i0G2i111y3c2b/computer.gif
Me too. This site for instance continued to fawn over it until it went eerily silent regarding the game a little over a month ago.
Swotor with its game of the year award is still healthy and attracts a lot of people, not only new content will be provided soon but devs also thinking about to change the name of the game with the next patch.
It will be probably called Guild Wars 2 or SecretWorldOnline but they cant decide yet.
...nah seriously, but are all these servers with grey names more or less dead ? What does 1.0 or 0.98 means... I did dread that in the meanwhile on many light servers are only a handfull players left.
Woah, < 500k subs already?
My prediction was that subs would drop to < 1m after D3 and GW2 release and < 500k after 1 year... Of course, I was called a hater. Looks like D3 was already enough to seriously drop subs. It's almost a little sad, but hey - EA and Bioware deserved it after all the crap they pulled lately...
edit: btw making predictions and hatin on games: Elder Scrolls Online will flop even harder.
Hype train -> Reality
Hate towards swtor in mmorpg.com? thats something new!!. You guys just never give up right?, dont really matter how hard you want to see swtor fail, it wont happen. Is the most successful p2p MMO post WoW, it have more subs than any other P2P MMO but WoW in the market, and still you are talking about swtor as a fail?. People already bored of d3 you can find a lot of post on swtor.com of people talking about ¨bored of d3¨ ¨coming back to swtor¨, and gw2 is a B2P MMO, moslty will be a 2nd game for everyone, is coming in september or even after that, and swtor have enough content for the rest of the year to keep the subs numbers over 1 mill or more by the end of the year. The haters at this point are just pathetic more than 6 months of wrong predictions but they still keep talking about ¨the fail of swtor¨, and guess what, they are still wrong from any point of view.
I could believe 200-300k active players, but not so few subscribers.
Looking at the population trends for some of the servers, they are hitting the 'Full' status during the day. The average population is down, but the total number of people playing is not decreasing as quickly. The people are playing less, but they're still playing.
I'm not saying that's good. I can usually tell when I'm not going to play a game much longer, and it's when I'm not logged in that long.
However, Bioware has a chance here. There are people logging in, probably just seeing if anything interesting is happening, has happened, checking auctions, etc. Bioware needs to get something out to grab those people and get them back into the game.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
200k-300k is actually eminently reasonable and believable for a big MMO that hasn't proved to be a runaway success after launch. Conversion rates between box purhcasers and long-term subscriptions are always very low in the MMORPG industry. 7-8:1 is about the norm. The figures stated by EA of 1.7 million and then 1.3 million 'active accounts' were always considered bullshit by anyone with any experience of the industry.
I am not arguing exact numbers, but I am pretty sure the number of *active* players is pretty low now. I guess lots of people have their account activated waiting.
You know, EVERY professional review site praised SWTOR into the heavens! That so angered me, because it just contributed to leaving things as bad as they are. Game companies have just made them immune to ANY critique these days. God this sad trainwreck is so painful to watch.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert