Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Fuzzy Avatars Solved! Please re-upload your avatar if it was fuzzy!

Tor down to 200k to 300k players Left

ZippyZippy NY, NYPosts: 1,412Member

Look at Tor Status and you will see Tor has 10 NA servers left the rest are dead empty servers.  Europe has 3 servers left and the rest are dead and empty. 

Presently the server status across North America and Euorope is as follows:

1 Medium Server

4 Light Servers

8 Very light Servers

156 Dead Servers

At the current rate of decline the 8 very light servers will all be dead servers within 2 weeks and the light servers will be on the verge of dying. Looking at the 13 light servers left at best ToR has 300k players playing likely less than 200k.  But at the current rate of loss Tor will be down to 3 or 4 non dead servers in the next 3-4 weeks and will have less  than 100k players.

EA/BW since release has engaged in a campaign of misinformation to make peiople believe the game is doing well and has a lot  more subs than it actually has.  The facts simply do not bear that out.  Approaching server merges their latest attempt at deception is the "Mega Server" scam.  They want people to believe there will be mega servers taking the place of all these empty servers.  Looking at Tor Status on a daily bas since launch one can quickly see they do not have the population to support such mega servers.  Rather EA/Bioware realize that at the current decline the population will only be able to support 3-4 servers at most.  But they can save face and keep telling people they are successful with their mega server scam.  Plus it gives the fanboys a reason to make post after post telling people how successful Tor is.

With only 13 light servers left it is not arguable that there are mroe than 300k players left.  The Titantic is sinking and its almost entirely under water now.  There is nothing that can be done for this game at least in the short term.  Many games have recovered from bad launches but it takes years.  With the SW brand name and a few years of development time it could have a revivial down the road and be a 100-300k sub game.  But at least in the short term it is sinking quite fast.

Update 6/17:

Tor dropped down to 6 NA servers and 3 Euro servers that were not dead prior to when the merges began,  Presently there are 10 non dead US servers and 2 servers that are gaining.  There are 4 Euro servers not in dead status with 1 close to coming back to life. Totaling14 non dead servers right now with 3 close to being brought back to life.

It is likely when the merges are done there may be around 20 total servers left of which 10 will be be very close to going back to dead status.  Generally the trend on what happens on this website is when a server is declining and hits below 1.3 the drop off to hit 1.0 is very swift.  The lower it gets the faster the decline.  Veru much a momentum things.  The more people that jump ship the faster the drop off.   But with the merges and the gains it will take awhile for things to settle and for people to percieve any actual momentum one way or the other.

So far with the merges they have now gained in players 3 straight days on Tor Status which is the second time they have posted gains this year and the  first gain since they gained 3 straight days when 1.2 came out.  Keep in mind these gains reflect a 7 day status so likely the gains are larger than  being shown.  
 


Edit: 6/22

With the server merges Tor is now up to 12 NA servers left and 5 Euro servers.  While the number of servers is not impressive the gain and health of those servers is unexpectedly high.  Thye have now received population gains for 8 straight days.  The merged servers are mostly very healthy in terms of pop and not near in danger of going back to dead status.  The strength of the rebound looks much better this week than last week and certainly seem to have added some momentum.  In terms of toal population its anyones guess what it is for 17 servers.  Likely 150k-300k.  The merged servers are not empty but they are not near being full either so its unlikely that each server would have close to the 20k (not concurrent) one would expect with a full server or the 5k one would expect with one almost dead.  Somewhere likely on the middle.

But if one is a Tor fan the last week should be very encouraging.  There is some momentum and the first sustained growth the game has ever had.  With 8 consecutive days of gains building a little bigger each day.

Edit: 7/22

The merger is over and now so is the gain in subs.  Tor gained players everyday on ToR status for the last 5 weeks.  The merger has left ToR with 16 very healthy servers (12 NA and 4 Euro).  The daily gains for 5 weeks has left them with servers that should remain healthy for quite awhile.  The last two days they have been shown to have lost players and likely that will continue and grow larger larger each day.  But given the size of the population of the 16 servers now Tor should be able to sustain a month or two of decline before any of these new servers become in jeopardy of dying.

One footnote when calculating the daily decline on Tor Staus one can no longer rely on the bottom figure caluclating the total decline or gain because the dead servers randomly fluctuate between 1 and 0.95.  Technically they cannot be lower than one so its an error of the site.  But depnding on the randomness it either shows a gain or decline for the dead servers skewing the total.

«13456718

Comments

  • syntax42syntax42 Columbus, OHPosts: 1,305Member Uncommon

    You appear to be stretching your numbers a bit.  That site only tracks the status of servers as reported by BioWare.  The fact is, we do not know an exact population threshold for each status.  A server that is always listed as "light population" could have 1,000 people on at all times.  The servers that bounce up to heavy could peak at 5,000, but drop down to less than 100 during non-peak hours and only average 1,000 for the day.  We just don't know the exact numbers or methodology used by BioWare to report server population.

  • SpottyGekkoSpottyGekko RotterdamPosts: 3,845Member Uncommon

    If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.

     

    So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population image

  • KakkzookaKakkzooka Waterbury, CTPosts: 591Member

    I'm just wondering when the major review sites will come out of the woodwork and actually write honest articles about how shitty the game really is and how poorly it's performed, instead of perpetually shoveling bullshit.

     

    Probably when the bribe money runs out. That's my best guess.

    Re: SWTOR

    "Remember, remember - Kakk says 'December.'"

  • xr00t3dxxr00t3dx Norcross, GAPosts: 275Member

    His number are a bit skewed in the direction he sees them going. However, what is for certain the layoffs of many of the old republic staff are a clear sign that things are headed south.

  • William12William12 Saint paul, MNPosts: 680Member

    If you really believe they only have 200k players left you're biased and dillusional.  Does it have 1.3 mil ?  No way but 200k ?   Ill take the middle and bet around 500-600k.

  • IstavaanIstavaan CorkPosts: 1,350Member

    1.3 million my ass. it's more like 300 or 400k and dropping.

  • XAPKenXAPKen Northwest, INPosts: 4,908Member Uncommon

    Looks like they could use at least a 4:1 server merge.


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now turned Amateur Game Developer.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  Realm Lords 2 on MMORPG.com
  • William12William12 Saint paul, MNPosts: 680Member
    Originally posted by xr00t3dx

    His number are a bit skewed in the direction he sees them going. However, what is for certain the layoffs of many of the old republic staff are a clear sign that things are headed south.

    If you know anything about game development you know that isn't true either.  When you create a game the staff you use to make that game is usually 2-3 times bigger then what you will use to maintain it.  Once done you move the extra people to new projects or existing games if you have no new projects you lay them off its how the business of making games is and always has been.   That's not to say the game isn't hurting, but basing it off of layoffs isnt accurate.

  • CorehavenCorehaven Colorado Springs, COPosts: 1,538Member
    Originally posted by SpottyGekko

    If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.

     

    So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population image

    Im not saying Swtor has 200k subs.  But if they did thats 3 million USD a month.   Im sure some profit would come out of that regardless.  I wouldnt count EA shutting it down at that point.  Nah. 

     

    If it drops below 100k or 50k then maybe.  That I could see.  200k is considered pretty fair for a lot of mmos anyways. 

  • eyceleycel rolling hillz, PAPosts: 1,334Member

    Do you guys think that if SWTOR would have had some attention grabbing mini games like bounty hunter cross faction bounty pvp or in game player run item shops to liven up the economy it would have helped?  Its seems to me that a mmo like this based just on action combat would benefit with other facets like the ones i mentioned.

    image

  • William12William12 Saint paul, MNPosts: 680Member
    Originally posted by Corehaven
    Originally posted by SpottyGekko

    If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.

     

    So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population image

    Im not saying Swtor has 200k subs.  But if they did thats 3 million USD a month.   Im sure some profit would come out of that regardless.  I wouldnt count EA shutting it down at that point.  Nah. 

     

    If it drops below 100k or 50k then maybe.  That I could see.  200k is considered pretty fair for a lot of mmos anyways. 

    Everquest and Everquest 2 have been profitable under 200k for years you just wont get monthly or bimonthly Content patches.

  • IstavaanIstavaan CorkPosts: 1,350Member
    Originally posted by Corehaven
    Originally posted by SpottyGekko

    If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.

     

    So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population image

    Im not saying Swtor has 200k subs.  But if they did thats 3 million USD a month.   Im sure some profit would come out of that regardless.  I wouldnt count EA shutting it down at that point.  Nah. 

     

    If it drops below 100k or 50k then maybe.  That I could see.  200k is considered pretty fair for a lot of mmos anyways. 

    not for one that cost 200 million to develope. Anyway EA make terrible mmo's people should have checked their record.

  • sumdumguy1sumdumguy1 avondale, AZPosts: 962Member Uncommon

    Why do people (OP) feel the need to throw out useless speculation that amounts to lying?  Is your ego in such need for attention that you feel the need to post untrue statements like this?  Here in lies one of the biggest issues with these forums.

  • erictlewiserictlewis Cottondale, ALPosts: 3,026Member Uncommon

    The are already hinting at free to play up to a certain level now for your friends trying to find that interview. It is just a matter of time.  subs are dropping like flies, and all they can do is talk of server transfers soon.  Meanwhile their player base is leaving in droves.

    It is just a matter of time before swtor is totally free to play or canceled.

     

  • eyceleycel rolling hillz, PAPosts: 1,334Member

    Maybee if they add, say...bears with lazersss the subs will return once again. :)

     

    image

  • CrunkJuice2CrunkJuice2 asdasd, INPosts: 568Member
    Originally posted by eycel

    Maybee if they add, say...bears with lazersss the subs will return once again. :)

     

     

    hell yeah,grizzly bears with lazers.im half tempted to goto the suggestion box on swtor.com and make a suggestion about that now

     

  • CrunkJuice2CrunkJuice2 asdasd, INPosts: 568Member
    Originally posted by Istavaan
    Originally posted by Corehaven
    Originally posted by SpottyGekko

    If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.

     

    So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population image

    Im not saying Swtor has 200k subs.  But if they did thats 3 million USD a month.   Im sure some profit would come out of that regardless.  I wouldnt count EA shutting it down at that point.  Nah. 

     

    If it drops below 100k or 50k then maybe.  That I could see.  200k is considered pretty fair for a lot of mmos anyways. 

    not for one that cost 200 million to develope. Anyway EA make terrible mmo's people should have checked their record.

    bioware themselves dont have the best record for games eather.alot of games ive played that were bioware games were always crippled with bugs and needed a billion patches just to play the game bug free

     

  • Mike-McQueenMike-McQueen Enfield, CTPosts: 243Member

    ooo Pandarians with lazers!

    I'm a unique and beautiful snowflake.

  • BerikaiBerikai Columbus, OHPosts: 162Member
    Originally posted by Mike-McQueen

    ooo Pandarians with lazers!

    Oh noez don't give Blizzard any ideas!

  • CorehavenCorehaven Colorado Springs, COPosts: 1,538Member
    Originally posted by Istavaan
    Originally posted by Corehaven
    Originally posted by SpottyGekko

    If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.

     

    So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population image

    Im not saying Swtor has 200k subs.  But if they did thats 3 million USD a month.   Im sure some profit would come out of that regardless.  I wouldnt count EA shutting it down at that point.  Nah. 

     

    If it drops below 100k or 50k then maybe.  That I could see.  200k is considered pretty fair for a lot of mmos anyways. 

    not for one that cost 200 million to develope. Anyway EA make terrible mmo's people should have checked their record.

     

    Oh I agree there.  Im just saying as long as its pulling in money I dont think they'll shut it down as suggested.  Even if its a drop in the bucket.  However support may taper off as someone above said. 

     

    I really feel EA will just milk subs for as long as they can no matter what.  Those thinking of a F2P conversion arent likely to get it.  I dont think EA does that with mmos anyways.  I might play  Swtor if they did that, but I dont think its going to happen.  Im also kind of afraid what EA would do with it under those circumstances too.  A lot of F2P games are so restrictive, it just takes the joy out of playing and its just not worth it. 

  • BardusBardus Cornet, ALPosts: 460Member
    Originally posted by Kakkzooka

    I'm just wondering when the major review sites will come out of the woodwork and actually write honest articles about how shitty the game really is and how poorly it's performed, instead of perpetually shoveling bullshit.

     

    Probably when the bribe money runs out. That's my best guess.

    Yep, very good question. Before launch there was no shortage of reviews and the reviewers only had hrs in beta. Now the game has been out for months and I hear crickets.

    No need in saying it. I know it was all paid reviews for promised ad space. Good luck convincing me otherwise.

    On topic: I think the OP is closer to the truth than we're getting from the office but it is still just pulling numbers out his ass. No offense but yeah your guessing.

    This isn't a constructive topic as much as it's a haters going to hate thread.

    I dislike TOR as much as anyone but if your going to post something like this then bring cold hard undisputable facts or your claims are nothing but an obvious and intentional exaggeration, AKA hyperbole.

    image

  • DannyGloverDannyGlover Portland, ORPosts: 1,277Member


    Originally posted by William12
    Originally posted by xr00t3dx His number are a bit skewed in the direction he sees them going. However, what is for certain the layoffs of many of the old republic staff are a clear sign that things are headed south.
    If you know anything about game development you know that isn't true either.  When you create a game the staff you use to make that game is usually 2-3 times bigger then what you will use to maintain it.  Once done you move the extra people to new projects or existing games if you have no new projects you lay them off its how the business of making games is and always has been.   That's not to say the game isn't hurting, but basing it off of layoffs isnt accurate.

    This is pretty true for most mmos. But the catch here is that Bioware advertised that they were in fact not going to downscale their staff after launch. They said they were going to keep their staff in order to continue creating the same level of content throughout the game's lifespan. It was actually a pretty convincing selling point for my wife and I because we really just wanted to play an mmo that has good support.

    Seeing all those layoffs despite what they promised tells me things are not going very well over in TOR land.

    We cancelled in april. It was a fun coop rpg. But in the end, it wasnt the type of mmo we were looking for.

    I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself and others that I am very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means - except by getting off his back.

  • CorehavenCorehaven Colorado Springs, COPosts: 1,538Member
    Originally posted by Bardus
    Originally posted by Kakkzooka

    I'm just wondering when the major review sites will come out of the woodwork and actually write honest articles about how shitty the game really is and how poorly it's performed, instead of perpetually shoveling bullshit.

     

    Probably when the bribe money runs out. That's my best guess.

    Yep, very good question. Before launch there was no shortage of reviews and the reviewers only had hrs in beta. Now the game has been out for months and I hear crickets.

    No need in saying it. I know it was all paid reviews for promised ad space. Good luck convincing me otherwise.

    On topic: I think the OP is closer to the truth than we're getting from the office but it is still just pulling numbers out his ass. No offense but yeah your guessing.

    This isn't a constructive topic as much as it's a haters going to hate thread.

    I dislike TOR as much as anyone but if your going to post something like this then bring cold hard undisputable facts or your claims are nothing but an obvious and intentional exaggeration, AKA hyperbole.

     

    I wrote this just now in another thread but I'll repeat it here. 

     

    Reviewers will never bash on Bioware, or Blizzard or any developer with a big name.  Why?  Because that developer might hold a grudge and not give any more future interviews, or invite them over to the offices, or give them an inside scoop.  Thats bad for a gaming publication of any kind.  Which is why you see small or no name developers who make a bad game get totally bombed in reviews.  Yet when a big name dev makes a game, bad or good, the reviews are going to always be good.  Dont want to insult them!  With good reason. 

  • EletherylEletheryl morenoPosts: 152Member

    Here we go again, dont know why the people hate the game that much, probably because gw2 is not out yet, so the fanboys need to do something, and hate swtor is fun maybe.  The truth about the game is this : http://www.vgchartz.com/game/31584/star-wars-the-old-republic/ 2.33 mill of copies, 10k more than the last week. most of the servers are dead because everyone is playing on the high pop servers, also all the new players make their toons there. The swtor playersbase is waiting for the new ¨superservers¨ and the 1.3 update, so dont worry. 

  • RohnRohn Saint Peters, MOPosts: 3,740Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Istavaan
    Originally posted by Corehaven
    Originally posted by SpottyGekko

    If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.

     

    So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population image

    Im not saying Swtor has 200k subs.  But if they did thats 3 million USD a month.   Im sure some profit would come out of that regardless.  I wouldnt count EA shutting it down at that point.  Nah. 

     

    If it drops below 100k or 50k then maybe.  That I could see.  200k is considered pretty fair for a lot of mmos anyways. 

    not for one that cost 200 million to develope. Anyway EA make terrible mmo's people should have checked their record.

     

    Indeed, I doubt they're intent on writing off $100+ million dollars so easily.

    I'd guess that WAR has less than 50K subs (probably a lot less), yet EA/Bioware/Mythic keeps it running.  SWTOR has a lot more than that, so I'd guess at the very minimum they'll gut the amount of money spent on development, like they did with Mythic, and milk it for every penny they can get.

    Besides, there's no proof whatsoever in the OP that supports the claim that it's dropped to 200-300K subscribers.

    Hell hath no fury like an MMORPG player scorned.

«13456718
Sign In or Register to comment.