3mil easy. TOR was not labeled the next UO or DAoC 2.0 while GW2 is. Only thing TOR got labeled is the next King to the crown WoW is doing everything it can to pass.
I know that most every one of my friends will be getting a copy, with only a couple who haven't said they intend on trying it out. Compare that to SWTOR which nobody purchased. IP popularity is nice, but many people thinking about starting up in an mmo will find out what their friends are playing (of course) so there will definately be a snowballing effect. First week will top 1 million, but I think we'll see 5 million by months end.
Bear in mind that thats 6 million copies of Guildwars sold EVER. I seriously doubt that anywhere approaching that number are still playing, or still interested in the game. I expect the release of GW2 will see a lot of ex GW players returnng but nowhere near that many.
Also, this is the exact reason why people will always claim GW2 is a success even if it turns out to be a flop, because they will just quote sales numbers, not current players.
If you look for xfire.com data - and im not saying it depicts reality accurately - you'll see theres more people playing GW1 than RIFT
As I said IF this is true, meaning there were 6 million games sold (not counting trilogy, expansions, etc.), then I would expect immediate sales to be roughly 2/3 of the amount or 4 million games. As for those that believe the active player base matters, it doesn't. Many people liked and enjoyed the game, but 'finished it' (whatever those goals were in there own minds), are willing to purchase the second one, and will do so.
Finally, If that number does include the trilogy then that means my estimate would be between 1.33 million and 2 million copies sold in the first days of sale. Honestly, I'll have 2 CE's if offered, having already paid for two regular versons, and that is all that really matters to me!
If this is true then I can see roughly 4 million just buying the game to replace GW1 figuring (6 million-(a million or so multiple copies + others that were disenchanted with the game) + New interests created from the boredom of players in their current games)
Bear in mind that thats 6 million copies of Guildwars sold EVER. I seriously doubt that anywhere approaching that number are still playing, or still interested in the game. I expect the release of GW2 will see a lot of ex GW players returnng but nowhere near that many.
Also, this is the exact reason why people will always claim GW2 is a success even if it turns out to be a flop, because they will just quote sales numbers, not current players.
All an MMO needs to do to be a success is to keep operating. If you're doing that, you're keeping enough people happy to pay your bills. That's a win in my books. The level of "win" though, is another story entirely. My personal opinion is that GW2 will be a major win. We'll see a year from now, how much new content has been put out. That will tell us how pleased their players are with the game because they will have been supporting the game through the item shop. If content is sparse or non-existent, I'd say there's problem.
Of course, I only apply that criteria to Guild Wars 2 due to ArenaNet. If we were talking about, say, a Blizzard game, a year of lackluster updates and no major content releases is par for the course and would have nothing to due with level of success.
Well, I do think quite a lot of copies will be sold the first week. I mean, there was a million sign-ups for the beta in just over 48 hours. I don't believe this sign-up thing was announced beforehand either (I didn't see anything, at least), so you could easily have missed it if you weren't paying attention to GW2 enough. I assume the launch will be announced a couple of months before the actual launch, so I expect the actual box sales in the first few days after launch to be a fair bit higher than that 1 million.
If GW2 is actually that good though (and I sure hope so), there will be many more sales after the first few weeks. In that case I think it might be very possible that they'll sell 10m copies in 1 year.
THere is alot of people stuck only on one mmorpg without knowing is there a new mmo out there and there are a thousands of other mmorpgs .... if those people do some research and find about guild wars 2 i am sure that gw2 will sell more then 5 million copies in 5-10 months
If there is no "true" open beta with bells and whistle if you buy the game I don't see it cracking 1mil.
Word of mouth is great, but a ip name is greater.
But I think the overtime selling will pass SW and be second to WoW
That's a valid point about the IP carrying so much weight. However, the fact that ArenaNet was able to obtain a million beta sign ups in just a little over 48 hours tells me that word of mouth has been spreading pretty quickly. There's certainly not been any major marketing campaign to bring the IP out there to new people. It's just been happening.
Now, that beta number is far smaller than the actual interest that was out there. A very narrow sign up window combined with almost no advanced warning that sign ups were at hand, means that a lot of people didn't even know they could get into beta. I'm sure if they left sign ups open for another week, they would have started approaching the 1.5 million mark when all was said and done. That's a lot of people with at least a passing curiosity about the game.
So I would have to wonder how many of those people are going to like what they see in the game and go on to buy it. Judging from the repsonses so far, a large majority will buy. And for even those who didn't get a chance to participate in beta, most of them will likely also buy the game if for no ther reason that the B2P model is so attractive.
Basing a number on the conservative total of 1 million interested gamers, let's say 750,000 are interested enough and stay interested enough to buy the game on release. Add in a decent marketing campaign, another slew of favourable reviews and previews to reach out to all the more peripheral gamers (the ones that don't spend their free time on forums just talking about and debating games), I can easily see another 750,000 people picking up the game immediately. I have five friends personally who will be buying the game on day one and none of them are plugged into the industry to the point that they even realize that GW2 had a beta sign up last week. I selfishly didn't tell them (not that it's going to make any difference - my odds still suck and they aren't interested in playing a beta anyway).
So really, there's a pretty decent chance of hitting 2 million boxes sold, inside a week. They're going to have way over 1 million just on the first day. When those first gushing comments come out, more are going to pick it up quickly. Really, if people continue to be as receptive to the game as we've seen (aside from a the standard hecklers), the release will be massive.
I think that's a very conservative estimate. The original Guild Wars sold 6 million copies, and while that was over time and not all at once, Guild Wars 2 has gotten quite a bit more press and hype. Also, the barrier of entry for many for GW1 (that it wasn't an "MMO" by traditional means) no longer applies. Add the above to the fact that the amount of gamers has grown exponentially over the years since the first game, and you're looking at a much larger market of available players, most of which have just bout had enough of WoW and/or are pissed at the Pandaren expansion.
I think, almost by default, GW2 will sell exceedingly well.
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
Yes, GW2 will sell well over 2 million copies. But not in the first week of release. Because sensible people don't play games in the first week of release, but many will buy a copy later.
Remember that while active subscription numbers can decline, the total number of boxes sold cannot. So Guild Wars 2 will probably sell over 5 million copies, too. The real question is whether it will take a month or a decade to get there.
Advantages: the beta is a great sign, I'd say that unless the game turns out to be horribly bad in the betas (that doesn't seem to be so far), almost everyone interested enough to sign up for a beta will get it on release if not preorder it.
Cons: On the other hand the release window points to a summer release, that tends to be a slow time for games, which is what makes me doubt it'll reach SWTOR numbers, which had the advantages of having one of the biggest gaming and non gaming franchises behind it, and a holiday release.
I don't think they will sell that many copies in the first week. Like GW1, WoW, SWTOR, Rift and alike, GW2 will grow over the following months after release. They will probably sell 500k copies within the first week due to GW veterans and MMO players (those who know the most about the game). After that, when the first fair reviews have been written, a lot more player will enter the world of GW2.
However I think GW2 will grow much faster than GW1, because it adresses a bigger audience. Overall I guess it will have 8 mio players over 3 years.
The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it. I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in. I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.
It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week. That's a huge success actually. I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.
Based on the threads on this website, i think it will sell 37 million copies and become the best selling game of all time, with a country named after it. Word is it's Somalia, soon to be offically known as Guild Wars 2...yes even the '2'.
Based on the threads on this website, i think it will sell 37 million copies and become the best selling game of all time, with a country named after it. Word is it's Somalia, soon to be offically known as Guild Wars 2...yes even the '2'.
Except 37 million copies sold wouldn't be the best selling game of all time, see above.
Though, they should definitely start bundling Guild Wars 2 with Windows sales.
If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.
Then presumably, by that logic, SWTOR was a lot worse than a failure?
Not necessarily. SWTOR has a subscription fee. It's generally expected that a buy to play game would have more box sales, especially considering Guild Wars 2's main source of revenue will be from the box.
Comments
3mil easy. TOR was not labeled the next UO or DAoC 2.0 while GW2 is. Only thing TOR got labeled is the next King to the crown WoW is doing everything it can to pass.
I know that most every one of my friends will be getting a copy, with only a couple who haven't said they intend on trying it out. Compare that to SWTOR which nobody purchased. IP popularity is nice, but many people thinking about starting up in an mmo will find out what their friends are playing (of course) so there will definately be a snowballing effect. First week will top 1 million, but I think we'll see 5 million by months end.
If you look for xfire.com data - and im not saying it depicts reality accurately - you'll see theres more people playing GW1 than RIFT
As I said IF this is true, meaning there were 6 million games sold (not counting trilogy, expansions, etc.), then I would expect immediate sales to be roughly 2/3 of the amount or 4 million games. As for those that believe the active player base matters, it doesn't. Many people liked and enjoyed the game, but 'finished it' (whatever those goals were in there own minds), are willing to purchase the second one, and will do so.
Finally, If that number does include the trilogy then that means my estimate would be between 1.33 million and 2 million copies sold in the first days of sale. Honestly, I'll have 2 CE's if offered, having already paid for two regular versons, and that is all that really matters to me!
If it's launched worldwide (Unlike SWTOR) They might hit 1-2M.
Max 3M,I would be surprised if they hit more than that. It just won't happen.
I say over 3 million sales in the first year. Just based on the fact that there was/is over 1 million just trying to get into the beta.
Not an expert though, just my random hunch.
The Deep Web is sca-ry.
Your topic is "Will GW2 sell "well" over 2 million copies" yet you do not provide an option to say no in your pole, bad pole is bad.
C
All an MMO needs to do to be a success is to keep operating. If you're doing that, you're keeping enough people happy to pay your bills. That's a win in my books. The level of "win" though, is another story entirely. My personal opinion is that GW2 will be a major win. We'll see a year from now, how much new content has been put out. That will tell us how pleased their players are with the game because they will have been supporting the game through the item shop. If content is sparse or non-existent, I'd say there's problem.
Of course, I only apply that criteria to Guild Wars 2 due to ArenaNet. If we were talking about, say, a Blizzard game, a year of lackluster updates and no major content releases is par for the course and would have nothing to due with level of success.
With 1 million beta sign ups it is safe to say that will come darn close to 2 mill at launch.
Grim Dawn, the next great action rpg!
http://www.grimdawn.com/
Well, I do think quite a lot of copies will be sold the first week.
I mean, there was a million sign-ups for the beta in just over 48 hours. I don't believe this sign-up thing was announced beforehand either (I didn't see anything, at least), so you could easily have missed it if you weren't paying attention to GW2 enough.
I assume the launch will be announced a couple of months before the actual launch, so I expect the actual box sales in the first few days after launch to be a fair bit higher than that 1 million.
If GW2 is actually that good though (and I sure hope so), there will be many more sales after the first few weeks. In that case I think it might be very possible that they'll sell 10m copies in 1 year.
"I'll lead, you follow."
THere is alot of people stuck only on one mmorpg without knowing is there a new mmo out there and there are a thousands of other mmorpgs .... if those people do some research and find about guild wars 2 i am sure that gw2 will sell more then 5 million copies in 5-10 months
Around 1 million in first week.
5 million in a year,two
That's a valid point about the IP carrying so much weight. However, the fact that ArenaNet was able to obtain a million beta sign ups in just a little over 48 hours tells me that word of mouth has been spreading pretty quickly. There's certainly not been any major marketing campaign to bring the IP out there to new people. It's just been happening.
Now, that beta number is far smaller than the actual interest that was out there. A very narrow sign up window combined with almost no advanced warning that sign ups were at hand, means that a lot of people didn't even know they could get into beta. I'm sure if they left sign ups open for another week, they would have started approaching the 1.5 million mark when all was said and done. That's a lot of people with at least a passing curiosity about the game.
So I would have to wonder how many of those people are going to like what they see in the game and go on to buy it. Judging from the repsonses so far, a large majority will buy. And for even those who didn't get a chance to participate in beta, most of them will likely also buy the game if for no ther reason that the B2P model is so attractive.
Basing a number on the conservative total of 1 million interested gamers, let's say 750,000 are interested enough and stay interested enough to buy the game on release. Add in a decent marketing campaign, another slew of favourable reviews and previews to reach out to all the more peripheral gamers (the ones that don't spend their free time on forums just talking about and debating games), I can easily see another 750,000 people picking up the game immediately. I have five friends personally who will be buying the game on day one and none of them are plugged into the industry to the point that they even realize that GW2 had a beta sign up last week. I selfishly didn't tell them (not that it's going to make any difference - my odds still suck and they aren't interested in playing a beta anyway).
So really, there's a pretty decent chance of hitting 2 million boxes sold, inside a week. They're going to have way over 1 million just on the first day. When those first gushing comments come out, more are going to pick it up quickly. Really, if people continue to be as receptive to the game as we've seen (aside from a the standard hecklers), the release will be massive.
I think that's a very conservative estimate. The original Guild Wars sold 6 million copies, and while that was over time and not all at once, Guild Wars 2 has gotten quite a bit more press and hype. Also, the barrier of entry for many for GW1 (that it wasn't an "MMO" by traditional means) no longer applies. Add the above to the fact that the amount of gamers has grown exponentially over the years since the first game, and you're looking at a much larger market of available players, most of which have just bout had enough of WoW and/or are pissed at the Pandaren expansion.
I think, almost by default, GW2 will sell exceedingly well.
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
also there are people who don't like betas like me , so there will be alot more then one million
wow, this wasn't deleted yet? amazing.
Yes, GW2 will sell well over 2 million copies. But not in the first week of release. Because sensible people don't play games in the first week of release, but many will buy a copy later.
Remember that while active subscription numbers can decline, the total number of boxes sold cannot. So Guild Wars 2 will probably sell over 5 million copies, too. The real question is whether it will take a month or a decade to get there.
I'd say roughly 1 million in the first week.
Advantages: the beta is a great sign, I'd say that unless the game turns out to be horribly bad in the betas (that doesn't seem to be so far), almost everyone interested enough to sign up for a beta will get it on release if not preorder it.
Cons: On the other hand the release window points to a summer release, that tends to be a slow time for games, which is what makes me doubt it'll reach SWTOR numbers, which had the advantages of having one of the biggest gaming and non gaming franchises behind it, and a holiday release.
What can men do against such reckless hate?
I don't think they will sell that many copies in the first week. Like GW1, WoW, SWTOR, Rift and alike, GW2 will grow over the following months after release. They will probably sell 500k copies within the first week due to GW veterans and MMO players (those who know the most about the game). After that, when the first fair reviews have been written, a lot more player will enter the world of GW2.
However I think GW2 will grow much faster than GW1, because it adresses a bigger audience. Overall I guess it will have 8 mio players over 3 years.
The Witcher 2 RPG was PC only and sold 1 million TOTAL.
But since a lot of people are waiting for a good mmorpg and the name Guild Wars is pretty well known I'm guessing 1 million sales in the first week.
The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it. I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in. I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.
It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week. That's a huge success actually. I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games
Based on the threads on this website, i think it will sell 37 million copies and become the best selling game of all time, with a country named after it. Word is it's Somalia, soon to be offically known as Guild Wars 2...yes even the '2'.
Except 37 million copies sold wouldn't be the best selling game of all time, see above.
Though, they should definitely start bundling Guild Wars 2 with Windows sales.
Then presumably, by that logic, SWTOR was a lot worse than a failure?
Not necessarily. SWTOR has a subscription fee. It's generally expected that a buy to play game would have more box sales, especially considering Guild Wars 2's main source of revenue will be from the box.