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Predictions on TORs subs a year out

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  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    i suddenly realized i was defending GW2 when i have no interest in it. Damn, Anywho i dont think they will keep the subscription numbers that have or that it will grow until all 5 of the to be released games come out. SWTOR is a old gen game.

    Are you saying that once these games come out that they will be so revolutoinary that not another game like TOR or WoW will be made ever again?

     

    Previous track records wtih Fallen Earth, Vindictus and Darkfall might prove you wrong.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • SlampigSlampig Member UncommonPosts: 2,342

    Originally posted by Sorrow

    Originally posted by bigsmiff

    I put 900k, but only because of all of the new releases this year. I think next year will be the big year for ToR content wise. I really have faith that Bioware is going to crank out some amazing content for years to come.

    Content takes money, money comes from investors, Bioware/EA borrowed a ton of cash to make SWTOR and did not meet the numbers they promised investors, in this economy investors are VERY tight with their money, and if you don't make your target, you do not get another chance.

     

    Granted they may do some half-assed crappy expansion on a nothing budget so they have something else to sell the suckers, but there is ZERO chance for a high quality high budget expansion.

    Haha, alright, Nostrodomus...

    That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!

  • dougmysticeydougmysticey Member Posts: 1,176

    Originally posted by William12

    Originally posted by dougmysticey


    Originally posted by MosesZD


    Originally posted by dougmysticey

    I think it is funny that people say <500k subs when they will have that many, at least in the US and AMEA, as well as getting ready to launch in Asia and Asia Pac. I think it is too early to say for sure but I think it will be higher than peeps here suspect.

     

    Nobody who understands the economics of MMOs cares about those.  Those subs, for Blizzard, run $1 US a month.   They don't even run at a proft.   They're just kept on for marketing purposes...   And considering how much free hype they've gotten over the years on the 12 million subscriber thing...    It was worth every penny and then some.

    We are not talking about WOW though. Just because (if you are accurate) those Blizzard subs are not worth anything does not mean that EA and Bioware intend to follow suit.

    Since you are in the know can you point me to some definitive information that expressly states those Blizzard Asian subs are only $1 US and have no value other than plublicity? Perhaps show what the economics around running local, Asian based servers look like from a profitability stand point? That would be awesome.

     

    I can explain some. 

    China law makes it illegal for a company to operate an MMO in china that is not based in china.  SO Blizzard out sources the game to a chinese company at a rate that is so bad they make pennys on the dollar compared to what they make in the west.  In fact you can google quotes from the Activision CEO saying this.

    Well, again, we are talking about EA and SWTOR, not Actavision, Blizzard but you may even be offf about that.

    Here is a recent clipping of a news story:

    Sister site Massively reported earlier today that World of Warcraft isn't just doing fine in China, it's doing extremely well. According to Gamasutra, the Chinese WoW operator NetEase just posted its Q3 revenue for the year, and the profits are doing nothing but rising. This is a little surprising given the information from the Activision Blizzard investor call earlier this month, which reported a loss of subscribers, mainly in the east.



    Regardless, NetEase posted revenues of 2.0 billion Chinese yuan, up 39.8% -- a substantial number. In China, it seems that World of Warcraft is still a force to be reckoned with, dropping subscriber numbers or not.

     

    image

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    But at the same time saying We made ALOT of money at launch means we are a success isn't correct eaither. the fact that SWTOR is still in Month 2 means that you havent even really hit any of the fall off yet.

    one of the things WoW has going for it is that people have put soo much time into their characters that they really dont want to give them up. they dont want to admit it was a waste by unsubbing.

    SWTOR doesnt have that problem. i hit 50 on 2 toons per build. only to hit the brick wall of nothingness for the end game.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by ComfyChair


    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by LadyNoh


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    its beta had 1 million requests in 48 hours. then they cut it because they didnt want to get swamed with requests. you should know this, its been on the front page of MMORPG.com.

    SWTOR.com crashed when they annouced beta, this was back in like 09'

    guildwars2.com had 403 errors as it was absolutely freaking out :p so yeah 'the site crashing' isn't a big boast, especially since it's dependant on the site. 

     

    "Hey Snaylor47 another game your looking forward too is going to kill the game you like."

     I also think that  because A)Guild Was two is much more known about then TOR was back in 09 and B)Because they only let people sign up for 48 hours, Anet got maximum numbers.

    That's a very defensive stance you're taking for no good reason, give me ONE good reason to even SUGGEST i've said anything like you're claiming. I'm just stating a fact that a site crashing doesn't mean anything :p Also, i think that them only having sign ups for 48 hours and not actually saying anything apart from on twitter and facebook reduced numbers if anything :)

    But they were definitely only letting in 1m max, which is why they closed it early.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by ComfyChair


    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by LadyNoh


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    its beta had 1 million requests in 48 hours. then they cut it because they didnt want to get swamed with requests. you should know this, its been on the front page of MMORPG.com.

    SWTOR.com crashed when they annouced beta, this was back in like 09'

    guildwars2.com had 403 errors as it was absolutely freaking out :p so yeah 'the site crashing' isn't a big boast, especially since it's dependant on the site. 

     

    "Hey Snaylor47 another game your looking forward too is going to kill the game you like."

     I also think that  because A)Guild Was two is much more known about then TOR was back in 09 and B)Because they only let people sign up for 48 hours, Anet got maximum numbers.

    That's a very defensive stance you're taking for no good reason. I'm just stating a fact that a site crashing doesn't mean anything :p

    Just stating reason as to why so many people signed up over a short period of time.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • William12William12 Member Posts: 680

    Originally posted by dougmysticey

    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by dougmysticey


    Originally posted by MosesZD


    Originally posted by dougmysticey

    I think it is funny that people say <500k subs when they will have that many, at least in the US and AMEA, as well as getting ready to launch in Asia and Asia Pac. I think it is too early to say for sure but I think it will be higher than peeps here suspect.

     

    Nobody who understands the economics of MMOs cares about those.  Those subs, for Blizzard, run $1 US a month.   They don't even run at a proft.   They're just kept on for marketing purposes...   And considering how much free hype they've gotten over the years on the 12 million subscriber thing...    It was worth every penny and then some.

    We are not talking about WOW though. Just because (if you are accurate) those Blizzard subs are not worth anything does not mean that EA and Bioware intend to follow suit.

    Since you are in the know can you point me to some definitive information that expressly states those Blizzard Asian subs are only $1 US and have no value other than plublicity? Perhaps show what the economics around running local, Asian based servers look like from a profitability stand point? That would be awesome.

     

    I can explain some. 

    China law makes it illegal for a company to operate an MMO in china that is not based in china.  SO Blizzard out sources the game to a chinese company at a rate that is so bad they make pennys on the dollar compared to what they make in the west.  In fact you can google quotes from the Activision CEO saying this.

    Well, again, we are talking about EA and SWTOR, not Actavision, Blizzard but you may even be offf about that.

    Here is a recent clipping of a news story:

    Sister site Massively reported earlier today that World of Warcraft isn't just doing fine in China, it's doing extremely well. According to Gamasutra, the Chinese WoW operator NetEase just posted its Q3 revenue for the year, and the profits are doing nothing but rising. This is a little surprising given the information from the Activision Blizzard investor call earlier this month, which reported a loss of subscribers, mainly in the east.



    Regardless, NetEase posted revenues of 2.0 billion Chinese yuan, up 39.8% -- a substantial number. In China, it seems that World of Warcraft is still a force to be reckoned with, dropping subscriber numbers or not.

     

    I don't think you understand why blizzard makes little to nothing from china players.  They OUTSOURCE the game to a chinese based company that pays pennys on the dollar per player compared to the West.  ill give an example.

     

    Say WOW has 5 mil western players it would take 10-15 times that many chinese players to make the same amount for blizard that the west players make them.  So for every 15 dollars we pay blizzard per month a chinese player makes blizzard 1$.    This has been said by the CEO of Activision over and over again.   Now to bring this into SWTOR if EA goes east and puts the game in china they will do it the same way because they have to follow chinese law and they will just like blizzard make pennys on the dollar per subscriber compared to the west.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)

    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying (which was for the reason of whether or not they'll bother giving them a key) and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.

     

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    Still a little early for me to make a guess.

    First thing i said in the thread.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • William12William12 Member Posts: 680

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)

    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.

     

     

    haha you think they excluded duplicate applications lol.   Stop making assumptions no one knows if they did or not.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Member Posts: 384

    Originally posted by William12

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)

    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.

     

     

    haha you think they excluded duplicate applications lol.   Stop making assumptions no one knows if they did or not.

    1 million is 100k more then what SWTOR had in the final open Beta, in fatc it might have been 750k and not 900k.

    image

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by Dreadblade

    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)

    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.

     

     

    haha you think they excluded duplicate applications lol.   Stop making assumptions no one knows if they did or not.

    1 million is 100k more then what SWTOR had in the final open Beta, in fatc it might have been 750k and not 900k.

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/12/05/star-wars-the-old-republic-beta-test-attracts-2-million-players/

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by William12

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)

    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.

     

     

    haha you think they excluded duplicate applications lol.   Stop making assumptions no one knows if they did or not.

    There was a statement made stating multiple applications from the same PC aren't counted, but i'd need to find it :p it's buried in the complete tidal wave of 'ZOMG BETA' news.

  • RizelStarRizelStar Member UncommonPosts: 2,773
    Originally posted by Dreadblade


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair


    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)
    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.
     

     

    haha you think they excluded duplicate applications lol.   Stop making assumptions no one knows if they did or not.

    1 million is 100k more then what SWTOR had in the final open Beta, in fatc it might have been 750k and not 900k.

     

    SWTOR had more than that mainly because they held it longer than 48 hours, I think it was around 2 mill after a few weeks of opening.

    I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.

    I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.

    P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)

    Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Member Posts: 384

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Dreadblade


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)

    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.

     

     

    haha you think they excluded duplicate applications lol.   Stop making assumptions no one knows if they did or not.

    1 million is 100k more then what SWTOR had in the final open Beta, in fatc it might have been 750k and not 900k.

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/12/05/star-wars-the-old-republic-beta-test-attracts-2-million-players/

    As I said 750k played, dam sucks to be wrong

    s no secret that Star Wars: The Old Republic is one of the most highly anticipated MMORPGs in recent memory, and the game's recently concluded public testing phase confirms the hype. The game's publisher, EA, announced that the SWTOR test phase drew in over 2 million players, and of those 2 million, 750,000 unique players jumped into the game over the Thanksgiving weekend alone.

    image

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    as much as it likes to say 2 million, people who were in it for multiple builds were counted twice, Thus i was counted Per build. 2 million across the entire beta (Closed and Open) is reletively standard.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by Dreadblade

    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by Dreadblade


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)

    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.

     

     

    haha you think they excluded duplicate applications lol.   Stop making assumptions no one knows if they did or not.

    1 million is 100k more then what SWTOR had in the final open Beta, in fatc it might have been 750k and not 900k.

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/12/05/star-wars-the-old-republic-beta-test-attracts-2-million-players/

    As I said 750k played, dam sucks to be wrong

    s no secret that Star Wars: The Old Republic is one of the most highly anticipated MMORPGs in recent memory, and the game's recently concluded public testing phase confirms the hype. The game's publisher, EA, announced that the SWTOR test phase drew in over 2 million players, and of those 2 million, 750,000 unique players jumped into the game over the Thanksgiving weekend alone.

    Yeah and 1 million people sighed up for GW2 beta so the number wont be as high as 750K.

     

    Also you were wrong 750K people where on during the Thanksgiving weekend alone.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    That is subject to interpritation. if they actually said Closed or Open beta it would be a cut and dry, however they didnt. you can take it that their Open beta had 2 mill people in it. from what im reading their BETA had 2 million people in it. this includes Closed.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Member Posts: 384

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Dreadblade


    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by Dreadblade


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    The whole 'i'll wait until later' thing is certainly a factor :)

    But 1m is still 1m. Got to remember that arenanet also scanned the specs of PC's applying and excluded duplicate applications. So that's 1m unique applications, many other MMO's have been x number of applications full stop.

     

     

    haha you think they excluded duplicate applications lol.   Stop making assumptions no one knows if they did or not.

    1 million is 100k more then what SWTOR had in the final open Beta, in fatc it might have been 750k and not 900k.

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/12/05/star-wars-the-old-republic-beta-test-attracts-2-million-players/

    As I said 750k played, dam sucks to be wrong

    s no secret that Star Wars: The Old Republic is one of the most highly anticipated MMORPGs in recent memory, and the game's recently concluded public testing phase confirms the hype. The game's publisher, EA, announced that the SWTOR test phase drew in over 2 million players, and of those 2 million, 750,000 unique players jumped into the game over the Thanksgiving weekend alone.

    Yeah and 1 million people sighed up for GW2 beta so the number wont be as high as 750K.

     

    Also you were wrong 750K people where on during the Thanksgiving weekend alone.

    No I was right, because that was the last weekend, which in my post I will highlight what I said, not sure where I lost you at

    image

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 4,990

    Initially when some asked this back right before the game launched I figure it would have somewhere in the neighborhood of 750k after approximately a year. Now I'm not so sure. Unfortunately, I think it may end up being lower than that.

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • fadisfadis Member Posts: 469

    If it is still $15/mo.... 300k-ish is my guess.

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    Personally i think that if they adopt a B2P model, focus on getting out content like LOTRO. Put out some articles talking about how they are planning on releaseing expansions left right and center, from there bring in a premium sub where you get all expansions free if you are subbed while the rest have to buy all of their expansions seperate. this would build players, after you get enough expanisons out people will start seeing the benefit of the sub, New players in general will see this as a god send.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • itgrowlsitgrowls Member Posts: 2,951

    If they actually deliver on every single promise they made for their savior patch 1.2 there's still no guarantee that the people they made angry will actually come back to their game. and offering a title and a mount ain't going to cut it. STO tried that.

     

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    What they should do is find all those people that got screwed from unsubbing and give them a free month. this is after said patch of course. call it a "im sorry" type thing when your secretly trying to get them to see your new spiffy patch.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • itgrowlsitgrowls Member Posts: 2,951

    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    Personally i think that if they adopt a B2P model, focus on getting out content like LOTRO. Put out some articles talking about how they are planning on releaseing expansions left right and center, from there bring in a premium sub where you get all expansions free if you are subbed while the rest have to buy all of their expansions seperate. this would build players, after you get enough expanisons out people will start seeing the benefit of the sub, New players in general will see this as a god send.

    let me stop you right there. Content like LOTRO is the problem not the solution i left LOTRO because of their terrible RoI expansion that was severely lacking. If i want to see a hobbit hopping around with subtitles above his head i would watch a foreign film.

    No they need to use the Rift strategy of putting out content patches. End of story. Nothing else is acceptable especially with LA money floating around there in the background.

    And they need to start with making sure that the savior patch actually puts in everything that a standard themepark mmo has in the ui and features because if they don't they will be hurting more as more people leave.

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