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Predictions on TORs subs a year out

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  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by LadyNoh


    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    If you actually believe that then you havent looked into the other titles enough yet.

     

    TSW is the most innovative title to be released this year.

    Archage is gonna take the sandbox titles easily being that the only other real sandbox for their fantasy is Wurm.

    TERA is actually gonna push the PvP crowd for fantasy

    and PlanetSide 2 is gonna take the pvp crowd for Sci Fi.

     

    so wanna know what leg SWTOR has. The Sci Fi PvE catagory. and sorry unless something changes, PvE in SWTOR is quite lacking.

    None of those have a major IP or are B2P so they can't be THAT successful.

     

    RIFT, EvE and EQ are really the only ones that come to my mind.

    not every idea needs to be stolen. wait originality, that cant possibly work. people dont have ideas, its crazy talk.

    Name 5 MMOs that you conceder successful but A)Are not the 3 listed above or B) B2P or based on a large IP

    do you mean NOT based on a large IP. because thats what i was making fun of, i wouldnt make fun of you by saying be original if i was supporting it being off a large IP.

     

    going with what i think you were trying to say,

     

    FoM, Guild Wars (1 not 2), LoL, AO, DAoC, Lineage, Planetside, Second Life (you didnt say good),

    Don't think I know what FoM is, GW1 and 2 are B2B, Lol is less an MMO then GW2, AO maybe in its heyday, Sure, No IIRC Planetside failed, Second Life isn't really an MMO.

     

    So Lineage, AO, Hell I'll even give you GW1 the game that had to add up all 3 of its x pac to sell 6 million copies.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • William12William12 Member Posts: 680

    Originally posted by dougmysticey

    Originally posted by MosesZD


    Originally posted by dougmysticey

    I think it is funny that people say <500k subs when they will have that many, at least in the US and AMEA, as well as getting ready to launch in Asia and Asia Pac. I think it is too early to say for sure but I think it will be higher than peeps here suspect.

     

    Nobody who understands the economics of MMOs cares about those.  Those subs, for Blizzard, run $1 US a month.   They don't even run at a proft.   They're just kept on for marketing purposes...   And considering how much free hype they've gotten over the years on the 12 million subscriber thing...    It was worth every penny and then some.

    We are not talking about WOW though. Just because (if you are accurate) those Blizzard subs are not worth anything does not mean that EA and Bioware intend to follow suit.

    Since you are in the know can you point me to some definitive information that expressly states those Blizzard Asian subs are only $1 US and have no value other than plublicity? Perhaps show what the economics around running local, Asian based servers look like from a profitability stand point? That would be awesome.

     

    I can explain some. 

    China law makes it illegal for a company to operate an MMO in china that is not based in china.  SO Blizzard out sources the game to a chinese company at a rate that is so bad they make pennys on the dollar compared to what they make in the west.  In fact you can google quotes from the Activision CEO saying this.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made 7m copies and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison.

    The 7 million copies for GW1 includes all of the X pacs (I know they where stand alone but everyone I knew who played the game played them as x Pacs).

     

    That also took them about 6 years to sell them all.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    Damn you missed my edit, Anywho, Success isnt making alot of money or having alot of subs. TSW isnt aiming to have half a billion subscribers like WoW, we know we will be a sleeper hit. thats fine we dont want retards who only want to stab things in our games. they will only bitch about having to think.

     

    so thinking you are required to land high numbers in order to be successful is wrong.

     

    ALSO MMO means Massively Multiplayer Online, if you ment to put in MMORPG. thats different, pick your words better because what i listed are MMO's.

     

     

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made 7m copies and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison.

    The 7 million copies for GW1 includes all of the X pacs (I know they where stand alone but everyone I knew who played the game played them as x Pacs).

     

    That also took them about 6 years to sell them all.

    Indeed, i think it was about 5m by the release of EoTN, but tbh they were still full price for a while in most shops. It's why it was changed to ~2m per expansion, since that makes more sense :p

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    Damn you missed my edit, Anywho, Success isnt making alot of money or having alot of subs. TSW isnt aiming to have half a billion subscribers like WoW, we know we will be a sleeper hit. thats fine we dont want retards who only want to stab things in our games. they will only bitch about having to think.

     

    so thinking you are required to land high numbers in order to be successful is wrong.

     

     

    How much does TSW cost in development because last I checked it's going pretty heavy on the VO too.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    Hasn't been released. unlike you guys we arn't trying to Hype ourselves into a corner.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • William12William12 Member Posts: 680

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

  • AerowynAerowyn Member Posts: 7,928

    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    Damn you missed my edit, Anywho, Success isnt making alot of money or having alot of subs. TSW isnt aiming to have half a billion subscribers like WoW, we know we will be a sleeper hit. thats fine we dont want retards who only want to stab things in our games. they will only bitch about having to think.

     

    so thinking you are required to land high numbers in order to be successful is wrong.

     

     

    ^ I agree to me a games success is how me and my friends perceive the game and how enjoyable we find it.. 

    although big companies dont see things that way especially when their eyes are filled with wow subscription numbers...

    I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    Hasn't been released. unlike you guys we arn't trying to Hype ourselves into a corner.

    Neither has gw2's.

    Pretty easy to work out though.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by William12

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    Yes, it will, because there's no sub :)

    Subs are a massive barrier to entry to so many people for so many MMO's. Seeing a AAA title without one will be very interesting. A mean, a million people signed up to the beta in 48 hours, and it's not like that was advertised much (a twitter message, facebook message and that was it from arenanet, the internet did the rest). The game is huge.

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    Originally posted by William12

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    its beta had 1 million requests in 48 hours. then they cut it because they didnt want to get swamed with requests. you should know this, its been on the front page of MMORPG.com.

     

    also im not talking about GW2. GW2 has experiance in the MMO genre, they know how bad releases can be so they arn't overstepping themselves at all.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by Aerowyn

    ^ I agree to me a games success is how me and my friends perceive the game and how enjoyable we find it.. 

    although big companies dont see things that way especially when their eyes are filled with wow subscription numbers...

    I don't like game X so game X fails?

     

    Did I read that right?

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • William12William12 Member Posts: 680

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    Yes, it will, because there's no sub :)

    In a few months when its out you can PM me saying I told you so, but if it doesnt you can PM me saying I guess I was wrong.  :)  I highly doubt GW2 sees over 2 mil players in the first month.  

  • AerowynAerowyn Member Posts: 7,928

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Aerowyn

    ^ I agree to me a games success is how me and my friends perceive the game and how enjoyable we find it.. 

    although big companies dont see things that way especially when their eyes are filled with wow subscription numbers...

    I don't like game X so game X fails?

     

    Did I read that right?

    if that's how you want to interpret that then thats fine...

    I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by LadyNoh

    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    its beta had 1 million requests in 48 hours. then they cut it because they didnt want to get swamed with requests. you should know this, its been on the front page of MMORPG.com.

    SWTOR.com crashed when they annouced beta, this was back in like 09'

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by William12

    Originally posted by ComfyChair


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    Yes, it will, because there's no sub :)

    In a few months when its out you can PM me saying I told you so, but if it doesnt you can PM me saying I guess I was wrong.  :)  I highly doubt GW2 sees over 2 mil players in the first month.  

    Tbh, i probably wont be on the forum much at that point but sure :)

  • ComfyChairComfyChair Member Posts: 758

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by LadyNoh


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    its beta had 1 million requests in 48 hours. then they cut it because they didnt want to get swamed with requests. you should know this, its been on the front page of MMORPG.com.

    SWTOR.com crashed when they annouced beta, this was back in like 09'

    guildwars2.com had 403 errors as it was absolutely freaking out :p so yeah 'the site crashing' isn't a big boast, especially since it's dependant on the site. I could probably get my site to crash if i asked a few hundred people to go onto it.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by Aerowyn

    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by Aerowyn

    ^ I agree to me a games success is how me and my friends perceive the game and how enjoyable we find it.. 

    although big companies dont see things that way especially when their eyes are filled with wow subscription numbers...

    I don't like game X so game X fails?

     

    Did I read that right?

    if that's how you want to interpret that then thats fine...

    I am asking you.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by LadyNoh


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    its beta had 1 million requests in 48 hours. then they cut it because they didnt want to get swamed with requests. you should know this, its been on the front page of MMORPG.com.

    SWTOR.com crashed when they annouced beta, this was back in like 09'

    yeah mine was in there, and it got accepted. i was part of the first group in, ya know what. at that point the game was good then it was systematically destroyed by their dev team. now i hear they are bringing back the things we told them not to get rid of. so either We told you so, or they are trying to look clever by keeping the good things away until people start to hate their game.

     

    also that can either be attributed to bad webpage design, or the fact that GW2 did a cut off to avoid it.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • MMOarQQMMOarQQ Member Posts: 636

    Originally posted by Requiem6

    1-2 M.

    Easy.

     

    Everyone saying less than 500k are so stupid. Just can't believe how stupid someone can be.

     

    This guy just stumbled upon the perfect IQ test.

    Better patent it now before someone else makes the big bucks.

    Science at work here folks.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by LadyNoh


    Originally posted by William12


    Originally posted by ComfyChair

    $120m = ~4m box sales assuming 50% digital. Pretty easy to do considering GW1 made ~2m copies per major campaign and that was a teeny, tiny game by comparison that was very niche due to instancing ect. The development time for expansions is vastly less, so if they could make an average of 3m sales per expansions (which is a pretty low estimate considering the GW1 sales) they'll be more than fine.

    Also, balanced gear wise, therefore negating any potential for a cash shop advantage. I don't have a clue if skills are balanced. i mistakenly thought you'd pick up on the fact we were talking about gear and the knowledge that PvP in GW2 uses 'max' stuff in PvP for everyone.

     

    I assumed you were talking about class balance.

    You really think GW2 is gonna out sell a star wars MMO in prerelease sales ?   Given how huge the star wars IP is i doubt it people bought star wars because its star wars.   If GW2 sells more then 2 mil it will become the most successful new MMO ever.

    its beta had 1 million requests in 48 hours. then they cut it because they didnt want to get swamed with requests. you should know this, its been on the front page of MMORPG.com.

    SWTOR.com crashed when they annouced beta, this was back in like 09'

    guildwars2.com had 403 errors as it was absolutely freaking out :p so yeah 'the site crashing' isn't a big boast, especially since it's dependant on the site. 

     

     

    "Hey Snaylor47 another game your looking forward too is going to kill the game you like."

     

    I also think that  because A)Guild Was two is much more known about then TOR was back in 09 and B)Because they only let people sign up for 48 hours, Anet got maximum numbers.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • AerowynAerowyn Member Posts: 7,928

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Aerowyn


    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by Aerowyn

    ^ I agree to me a games success is how me and my friends perceive the game and how enjoyable we find it.. 

    although big companies dont see things that way especially when their eyes are filled with wow subscription numbers...

    I don't like game X so game X fails?

     

    Did I read that right?

    if that's how you want to interpret that then thats fine...

    I am asking you.

    fine ill explain to me a MMOs success can't be judged just off initial box sales unless it sells an ungodly amount of boxes that would fund the game for years to come. For a single player game sure you could do that since the company isn't required to pay extra expenses on the game every month like a MMO. To me MW3 was a massive failure as a game but the numbers don;t reflect that since no matter if the game sucked or not it was going to sell HUGE right out the gate just because of it's name. 

    For people to say SWTOR is a thriving success already is just ridiculous and to say it's completly dead already is just as ridiculous. But as a MMO if my gaming community who have all been playing MMOs since way before EQ1 ever came out can't even find 2 months enjoyment out of this game I feel it's a failure.. obviously everybody has differn't views on games and differn't groups of friends but I never had a big name game like this die with my gaming community as fast as this one did.

    I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg

  • RaysheRayshe Member UncommonPosts: 1,279

    i suddenly realized i was defending GW2 when i have no interest in it. Damn, Anywho i dont think they will keep the subscription numbers that have or that it will grow until all 5 of the to be released games come out. SWTOR is a old gen game, it will be great for the people who enjoy the WoW Gen. you guys can potentially get a great boost if WoW craps all over itself (and seeing their track record, Chances are good) in terms of actually seing a competition, WoW era games are what your looking at.

     

    SWTOR is GREAT for the casual crowd. really its stupid easy, everything was dumbed down to the point where you really dont have to pay attention to the game at all. and hey you can complete all your space missions by putting a stack of quarters on the keyboard.

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Member Posts: 962

    Originally posted by Aerowyn

    fine ill explain to me a MMOs success can't be judged just off initial box sales unless it sells an ungodly amount of boxes that would fund the game for years to come. For a single player game sure you could do that since the company isn't required to pay extra expenses on the game every month like a MMO. To me MW3 was a massive failure as a game but the numbers don;t reflect that since no matter if the game sucked or not it was going to sell HUGE right out the gate just because of it's name. 

    For people to say SWTOR is a thriving success already is just ridiculous and to see it's dead already is just as ridiculous. But as a MMO if my gaming community who have all been playing MMOs since way before EQ1 ever came out can't even find 2 months enjoyment out of this game I feel it's a failure.. obviously everybody has differn't views on games and differn't groups of friends but I never had a big name game like this die with my gaming community as fast as this one did.

    You could have saved time and said "Yes, If me and my friends don't like it then its a failure.".

     

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

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