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2012 MMO Predictions

77lolmac7777lolmac77 Herp Derp, PAPosts: 496Member
Just post some things you think are going to happen in the MMO world this year.

-Guild Wars 2 will be popular for a month, then forgotten about
- The Secret World will be exactly like Age of Conan
-SWTOR will retain 500,000+ subs
-Dominus will take over as the de facto PvP game from GW2
- Mortal Online will finally die
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Comments

  • VolkonVolkon Sterling, VAPosts: 3,788Member

    {mod edit}

    I disagree on Guild Wars 2... it'll likely be approaching at least three million sales by years end (assuming late spring, early summer release). With it's no subscription model and MMO-changing philosophy and already demonstrated highly polished combat system, dynamic event system, eradication of the trinity, etc. it'll set the new baseline in MMO development at one critical area... it'll make other developers willing to actually try new things and not regurgitate the old MMO model any longer.

     

    (Nice, scored first post!)

    Oderint, dum metuant.
    image

  • PuremallacePuremallace Phoenix, AZPosts: 1,856Member

    . ArenaNet will learn how fast people can burn through content and then turn on game, but who cares after you buy the box YOU CAN'T UNSUB lol

     

    . TSW is made by Funcom so my hopes are mehhhhhhhhhhhhh, but lets hope we get some new stuff and modern day mmorpg finally

     

    . TOR post declines in 2nd qtr of this year and after offering transfer for 25$ a pop people realize just how many people they have lost

     

    . Intimidated by Rift the CEO of Blizzard throws himself out of a hightower and in mourning they shut down WoW. Also Ghostcrawler is put on trial by an international court for being such a terrible dev and sentenced to death by stoning.

  • El-HefeEl-Hefe Yakima, WAPosts: 609Member

    i think a year from now.....

    gw2 will be approaching 3mil boxes sold

    swtor will be holding strong at 800k subs 

    tsw will have 600k subs and be doing nicely

    tera will have 300k and holding its own

     

     

    I've got the straight edge.

  • VolkonVolkon Sterling, VAPosts: 3,788Member

    Originally posted by Puremallace

    . ArenaNet will learn how fast people can burn through content and then turn on game, but who cares after you buy the box YOU CAN'T UNSUB lol

     

    .

    They already know... that's why they're creating a game where you never actually out-level earlier content. All 24 explorer mode dungeons, for example, will be not only viable but also challenging to your character at max level due to their side-kicking system, the flattened levelling and power curve and the lack of a gear treadmill when you hit max level. Basically, you won't be erecting walls behind you to the older content as you level, so the whole game will always be available and worth going to.

     

    They're also going to be continually adding in new events, so going back to a lower level area may suddenly trigger things you haven't seen even though you've been there time and time again.

    Oderint, dum metuant.
    image

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon santa clara, CAPosts: 22,441Member

    Originally posted by 77lolmac77

    Just post some things you think are going to happen in the MMO world this year. -Guild Wars 2 will be popular for a month, then forgotten about - The Secret World will be exactly like Age of Conan -SWTOR will retain 500,000+ subs -Dominus will take over as the de facto PvP game from GW2 - Mortal Online will finally die

    Diablo 3 will steal away a lot of MMO players and start a new trend of online co-op RPGs with *some* MMO elements.

  • myrmxmyrmx ste-catherine, QCPosts: 93Member

    i predict a long shot but still :

    -Diablo 3 RMT will provide 100% more revenue than box sales after a year

    -Planetside 2 will become the new pvp craving

    -Darkfall 2.0 will release and not fail.

     

    Ok the third one is a stretch... i still hold firmly on the 2 other tough :)

     

  • MosesZDMosesZD Kirkwood, MOPosts: 1,383Member

    Originally posted by 77lolmac77

    Just post some things you think are going to happen in the MMO world this year. -Guild Wars 2 will be popular for a month, then forgotten about - The Secret World will be exactly like Age of Conan -SWTOR will retain 500,000+ subs -Dominus will take over as the de facto PvP game from GW2 - Mortal Online will finally die

     

    Sorry dude.  I played GW including every expansion.   I think everything they've discussed is an improvement over the original game and I, like my old GW guildies, will be back and involved for years.   Just like we were last time.    And since we won't have be subbed to enjoy the game, it'll be (once agian) a very fun diversion we won't feel pressured to constantly play because we're wasting $15 a month if we're not playing.

     

    As for SWTOR...    We'll see.   They started with a huge base, about 1.7 million in first month.   But, they're losing people as fast as Warhammer.

    So, 1.7 million is to X and 800K is to 100K in six months time...    I'm saying X = 200K in six months.  

     

    And I'm saying this because I'm watching the sales, DESPITE THE HUGE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN THAT'S EVERYWHERE, have dropped to 36K last week, of which just under 9K were in North America....  (Week ended February 4th, 2012.)  Think about it...  Under 9,000 sales for an entire week in North America.   DESPITE a huge marketing campain...

    Plus the server traffic is WAY down.   People are just gone...   There are now 45 servers that rarely get out of 'light' status and only 12 that regularly get into 'heavy.'    And that's DESPITE BioWare lowering the the 'moderate' and 'heavy' thresholds to artificially increase the apparent populations.

    Schadenfreude -- the joy I feel in the pain of the BioDrones who trolled everyone who had issues with the game -- technical, visual, etc. -- and refused to acknowledge the huge, game-breaking, dead-ender flaws this game had on release.    I especially lover reading the posts of the people that called me a troll for pointing out all the bugs, flaws and what-not who are now doing the same thing and quitting, only after dropping a 60-day card on a game they've grown to hate...  :)

  • AdamTMAdamTM Frankfurt Am MainPosts: 1,376Member

    - TSW will be the break-out MMO for 2012 for good and bad. Much trolling on the forums about Funcom will comence. It will have moderate sales and stay relatively stable with a retention of approx. 70% past month 3.

    - GW2 will sell at least 4-6 million boxes at launch and stay moderately successful with a slight upwards trend of sold boxes.

    - We will finally see numbers for SWTOR retention past Q1, which will be, per my prediction 2 months ago, around 30-40%, Bioware will release jesus-patch

    - ArcheAge will be officially announced for the western market, but US only.

    - Pandas come out for Xmass (like every Xpac ever) and sell like hot cakes (in the east)

    - Titan will be announced by Blizzard

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  • BunksBunks New Port Richey, FLPosts: 960Member

    GW2 will sell over 3 million in 3 months, and another million before the first expansion. And will be the most PVP centric game on the market.

    TSW will hurt SWTOR more than anyone imagined. But still only hold a steady 600-900k subs over time.

    SWTOR will hit 900k subs by march, 700k by april, then 500k when TSW is released. But no one will ever know the true numbers till it closes its doors in less than a year.

    Tera will be a big dud.

    And WOW will see it's numbers steadily decline every quater at a very small and steady rate after a slight spike after MOP.

    D3 will be even more succesful than anyone expected(and I am not a fan of the game)

  • IselinIselin Vancouver, BCPosts: 5,610Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by nariusseldon

    Diablo 3 will steal away a lot of MMO players and start a new trend of online co-op RPGs with *some* MMO elements.

    D3 is just a prettied-up version of D2 with a few playability improvements (no more town scrolls, no need for mana potions because it regenerates really fast.) It'll have the same appeal that the previous Diablos had: a quick dungeon crawl that you can play in tiny bits when you don't have time for a real MMO.

     

    And lol @ "start a new trend"... like D1 didn't do that in the 90s :)

     

    And I'm not knocking it...I will definitely get it and play it. But it'll have about as much impact on my MMO time as Madden or NHL12 have...zilch.

  • OzmodanOzmodan Hilliard, OHPosts: 7,187Member Uncommon

    I think GW2 will do quite well.  It is essentially a pvp game and it will keep those that like that part of the genre happy.

    SWTOR will be merging servers by end of the year.  Just not enough content in the game and they won't add enough to matter.

    TERA will do well initially then die, it will be heading to f2p by years end.

    TSW is something of an enigma.  The studio that is making it has had release problems before, not sure if they learned from their mistakes.  It could be a sleeper here.

    Titan will NOT be announced this year, easy to understand the reason for that, Blizzcon was canceled.

    Wow will do well again when their upcoming expansion releases.  Hope it has more content than Cataclysm had.

    Diablo III will do better than any of the above games.  Blizzard will still maintain it's kingship of this genre.

    Eve will win the best MMO of the year reward again as nothing released in the upcoming year will be marginally different that what we have had before.

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon santa clara, CAPosts: 22,441Member

    Originally posted by Iselin

    Originally posted by nariusseldon


    Diablo 3 will steal away a lot of MMO players and start a new trend of online co-op RPGs with *some* MMO elements.

    D3 is just a prettied-up version of D2 with a few playability improvements (no more town scrolls, no need for mana potions because it regenerates really fast.) It'll have the same appeal that the previous Diablos had: a quick dungeon crawl that you can play in tiny bits when you don't have time for a real MMO.

    The "same appeal" is pretty strong. Look at Diablo 2 and how long people have been playing that game. Do not under-estimate prettied-up version.

    A prettied-up version of D2 beat many MMOs in terms of the fun factor.

  • angerbeaverangerbeaver Dorval, QCPosts: 870Member Uncommon

    I have only seen a little on TERA so far, but I don't think it will last long after release.

    SWTOR will be a failure that survives because there are people that enjoy it. I only say it is a failure based on all the hype (sort of like Rift).

    GW2 will be strong through 2012 since it is releasing in Fall I think?

    WoW Panda will meet with tons of hatred, but of course it will survive.

    Lotro next release will not likely make a huge impact in generating new players, but it will keep the existing players. Although GW2 may steal quite a bit since they are both f2p.

  • MeltdownMeltdown Home, NHPosts: 1,184Member Uncommon

    TSW - Will be more successful than AoC at launch, no WoW number subs, but will have a very dedicated following (maybe 600,000+ subs)

     

    GW2 - Will disappoint a lot of players, but huge marketing and only depending on initial box sales will make the game A LOT of money... thus a success.

     

    D3 - Blizzard decides that D3 isn't ready to be released and revamps the entire game (again), estimated release date 2013. 

     

    SWTOR - Retains decent subs, attracts more new players into the MMO-genre (for better or worse) probably 300k subs.

     

    TERA - Biggest flop of 2012, NA servers shut down in 2013.

     

     

     

    "They essentially want to say 'Correlation proves Causation' when it's just not true." - Sovrath

  • WhiteLanternWhiteLantern Nevada, MOPosts: 2,732Member

    I haven't used my crystal balls in a while, but here goes:

    GW2 will sell less than 1million at launch but will be the only game to steadily increase in sales since WoW.

    Tera will sell less than 500k copies suffer less than 25% retention.

    TOR will be at 700-800k subs and holding by Q3.

    WoW will lose another 1.5 million subs and Mists will be seen as a failure.

    TSW (copy/paste Tera)

    Rift will add subs this year. Not many, but a noticeable amount.

    WH40K will be cancelled officially.

    WAR will shut down.

     

     

     

    I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil

  • 77lolmac7777lolmac77 Herp Derp, PAPosts: 496Member
    *note* This isnt trolling I meant this thread to be about making predictions that, while not probable, arent inconceivable.

    I truly beleive GW2 is getting way too hyped and its going to disappoint a lot of people. "Oh you can do the older content again but on harder difficulty" Ok, that doesnt change the fact that its still OLD content, aka something Ive done before. The only reason it will sell good is due to the B2P model. But as far as retaining active players who log in? Im giving it 3 months before everyone realizes by taking away all the grind and time-sinks there will be nothing to do real fast.
  • El-HefeEl-Hefe Yakima, WAPosts: 609Member

    Originally posted by 77lolmac77

    *note* This isnt trolling I meant this thread to be about making predictions that, while not probable, arent inconceivable.



    I truly beleive GW2 is getting way too hyped and its going to disappoint a lot of people. "Oh you can do the older content again but on harder difficulty" Ok, that doesnt change the fact that its still OLD content, aka something Ive done before. The only reason it will sell good is due to the B2P model. But as far as retaining active players who log in? Im giving it 3 months before everyone realizes by taking away all the grind and time-sinks there will be nothing to do real fast.

    i would tend to agree with that. but it being the last big game to release this year. people will be so sick of jumping from game to game that they will probable end up playing the one that is free.

    I've got the straight edge.

  • DJJazzyDJJazzy louisville, COPosts: 2,053Member

    Originally posted by 77lolmac77

    *note* This isnt trolling I meant this thread to be about making predictions that, while not probable, arent inconceivable.



    I truly beleive GW2 is getting way too hyped and its going to disappoint a lot of people. "Oh you can do the older content again but on harder difficulty" Ok, that doesnt change the fact that its still OLD content, aka something Ive done before. The only reason it will sell good is due to the B2P model. But as far as retaining active players who log in? Im giving it 3 months before everyone realizes by taking away all the grind and time-sinks there will be nothing to do real fast.

    well 3 months would be 2 months longer than I've played almost every other mmo

    plus I can return whenever I want, and when they put out an expansion or content patch and not lose any ground to current players

  • darker70darker70 stokePosts: 813Member

    GW2 will herald a change in the way we percieve a Mo with it's dynamic content quest system and will trounce SWTOR in it's initial first release,and herald a seachange regarding B2P online games.

    SWTOR will keep 800k subs but not enough for EA so i suspect a F2P model late 2012.

    TSW  Will attract a player base fed up of the same old regurgitated rubbish and no doubt former SWTOR players and meld the modern world with Sci-fI gendre.

    Dominus and PS2 will fight it out for the PVP crown.

    Archeage once again takes us back to halcyon days of  fully realised worlds, but incompassed in a stunning virtual pixelated canvas or in other words rather good graphics.

    WOW will lose subs and finally fade when they release the my little pony tie in expansion,and when Titan is finally revealed.

    Rift will continue to hold it's head above water but will mainly be financed by it's Chinese deal and go full F2P late 2012.

    Furthermore Vanguard will go F2P,STO will march on and get some much needed planetary exploration content,The Repopulation will attract former SWG-PRE NGE veterans and become the biggest niche game ever !!

     

     

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  • fonyfony hempstead, NYPosts: 755Member

    TSW will disappoint many, not feeling very innovative at all just because there's no formal classes. it will be a standard thempark in PVE complete with "LF Tank", and meta builds will take over just like guild wars. PVP will be buggy on release since the game is coming out too soon, but the pvp format itself will be great.

    GW2 wll sell well, and keep selling well for more than a few weeks unlike its "competition", people will like it, it will continue to grow for a while.

    SWTOR will stop selling altogether(it's already down to 30K globally last week)in the EU/US. possible new content and AUS/Asian launch will bolster its numbers shortly, so it will top out aroung 3.3 million sold and be left with 200K to 400k subs by december. 

    TERA will keep a decent player base for a while, but many will get over it by the fall and they will announce F2P by the end of the year.

    WoW will continue to be the top in sub numbers, MoP will see the loss of even more players.

    RIFT will continue to improve, and gamers will continue not giving a damn as they announce more server merges and come up with more crazy promotions.

    C9 will fly under the radar.

    ArcheAge might not come out in 2012.

  • dinamsdinams Muriae, VAPosts: 1,362Member

    GW2 achieves 30 million subscribers

     

     

    Yes, it is what you are thinking, no its not trolling

    "It has potential"
    -Second most used phrase on existence
    "It sucks"
    -Most used phrase on existence

  • ThorbrandThorbrand West Palm Beach, FLPosts: 1,198Member

    You missed all the real MMOs coming out. Sandbox returns to the industry so we can play MMOs they way they where indended.

  • AlotAlot BredaPosts: 1,948Member

    Originally posted by Thorbrand

    You missed all the real MMOs coming out. Sandbox returns to the industry so we can play MMOs they way they where indended.

    Ironic that sandbox lovers tend to criticize the current MMORPG market for lacking diversity while the type of MMORPG market they have in mind may have even less diversity.

  • WhiteLanternWhiteLantern Nevada, MOPosts: 2,732Member

    Originally posted by Thorbrand

    You missed all the real MMOs coming out. Sandbox returns to the industry so we can play MMOs they way they where indended.

    Care to name a few to watch out for? I'm drawing a blank on this one.

    I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil

  • darker70darker70 stokePosts: 813Member

    Originally posted by dinams

    GW2 achieves 30 million subscribers

     

     

    Yes, it is what you are thinking, no its not trolling

    Actually this could happen as GW2 is a B2P there are no subs but initially you would no doubt need an account what happens to the players who buy the game play it and for ever what reason don't touch it again.In effect they would still be part of the player base if this went on for years GW2 could triple WOW's numbers or any other P2P game.

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