More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers 2/1/12 [EA Conf Call Discussion Thread]

[Deleted User]

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smh_alot

Originally posted by tristanryan


*** PLEASE READ THIS POST *** This player, somehow listed almost every single issue ive found with the game. I feel he could have raised more hell about many of them, but he kept it short i think to list everything. This deserves a read and i feel that way because its 100% true. Read it twice, he will only use 1 sentence to explain big, big problems. Please read this post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Originally posted by firefly2003

 

The huge faction imbalance of Imperial Vs Republic on nearly every server Republic is outnumbered 5:1 with the exception of 2 server which are RP servers.

 

The noticeable population drops on all servers with some migrating to the heavyiest server loads, 4 of our major guilds on our server disbanded completely and quit playing completely.

 

 

 

A statement as 'huge faction imbalance of Imperial Vs Republic on nearly every server Republic is outnumbered 5:1' is simply an outright lie. Please do some more factchecking next time, a) not always is Empire the larger faction and especially on PvE servers the factions are often evenly balanced, b) in over 90% of the cases, the faction imbalance is more like 1 to 1.2-2. Any other statement is nothing but gross exaggeration or outright lying.

The other statements made some I could agree on, others I'd write off as a difference of opinion and viewpoint on them, but it's extreme and false statements like the ones quoted here that to me makes me suspect the whole post of bias and lacking objectivity.

smh_alot

[mod edit]. But from what other people have posted about the servers they did honest player counts on and from what I found myself, his statements are severely untrue.

 

I'm not gonna bother to list the many examples that prove him untrue, but yes, a hell of a lot of PvE servers are fairly even balanced with a number of times even the Republic faction having more players, and when faction imbalance does occur on a server (PvP/PvE/RP) I haven't encountered 1 time that it's a 1 to 5 ratio but many times I've observed it's a 1 to 1.5 ratio. The highest I've encountered from the like 20 examples I've seen was 1 to 2.5 ratio.

 

I seriously wish people could be more objective about things when they're making their case and simply stick to cold, hard data instead of fallacies, ridiculous hyperboles and kneejerk ad hominems.

Souldrainer

As forum users might recall, I predicted the report would show 3 million active subs by this time, and my prediction was totally wrong.  That is the thing about throwing numbers around.  Sometimes, you just miss the mark.

 

However, 1.7 Million active is very exciting news!  If you are a fan of WOW, Rift, or SWTOR, you should be excited by the level of competition that these companies are now in.

Rocketeer

Originally posted by Souldrainer

As forum users might recall, I predicted the report would show 3 million active subs by this time, and my prediction was totally wrong.  That is the thing about throwing numbers around.  Sometimes, you just miss the mark.

 

However, 1.7 Million active is very exciting news!  If you are a fan of WOW, Rift, or SWTOR, you should be excited by the level of competition that these companies are now in.

I don't see how this is going to help rift considering its superior to ToR in every respect but voiceovers for quests.

Souldrainer

Originally posted by Rocketeer

Originally posted by Souldrainer

As forum users might recall, I predicted the report would show 3 million active subs by this time, and my prediction was totally wrong.  That is the thing about throwing numbers around.  Sometimes, you just miss the mark.

 

However, 1.7 Million active is very exciting news!  If you are a fan of WOW, Rift, or SWTOR, you should be excited by the level of competition that these companies are now in.

I don't see how this is going to help rift considering its superior to ToR in every respect but voiceovers for quests.

 When did Rift add a morality system?  Just wondering.  Anyway, competition not only makes companies fight to get to the top.  It makes them fight to stay on top.  The next disaster patch is right around the corner for companies without competition.  That's why Cata was so horrible when it came out... no competition means you can drop the ball to save a buck.  Nobody will care.  More competition means you better not drop the ball.  Ever.

Sure, SWTOR is lacking in many standard MMO features, but the game is only 6 weeks old.

Wickedjelly

[mod edit]

zakiyawow

[mod edit]

Wickedjelly

[mod edit]

SpottyGekko

I have always said that the "true" measure of SWTOR's success or failure as an MMO will be revealed by the sub numbers 3 months after launch. So we'll have to wait for EA's 4th quarter numbers (in April) to really see what's going on.

Scalebane

People always say Blizzard lies about the numbers, why should i believe anything from EA/Bioware?

FatherAnolev

Originally posted by Teala

Thought I would toss in my 2 cents.   I know right, you've probably been wondering were I was at.  Anyway, I look at it like this.  They sold just under 2.1 million copies(based on box sales and the fact that they said that 40% was digital) we know how many boxes were sold and if we do the math we can see they have sold 2,078,456 units of the game - roughly(based on box sales recorded by 3rd party sources such as NPD and Origins DL's-  on EA's own report that 40% of total sales were degital downloads from Origin).

They report that they have retained 1.7 million subscribers of those units sold(they could have rounded that number up or down so lets give them a shadow of a doubt and say they rounded down).   Most of those were sold in December prior to launch - in fact if we go by what EA's has told us about digital sales we can see that SWTOR sold 80% of the current total of units prior to the Dec 20th release date - 80%.

Then if we correlate the recently released info, we can guess that since the first month SWTOR has retained just over 60% of their player base.  That means a 40% drop in subscribers since release.

Now I do not know about you, but a game that lost almost 400k players in its first month of release - is not doing very good.

Just my take on this whole quarterly report story.  

I'm sorry, where did they say that 80% of their sales occurred before Dec 20th?

Because if they're saying that they've sold 2 million units, but they only announced having 1 million players 3 days AFTER launch (http://www.shacknews.com/article/71727/star-wars-the-old-republic-hits-a-million-players-28).  that means < 50% sold pre launch, and > 50% sold post launch. Or are you implying that they indeed sold 1.6 million in December, but only 1 million bothered to login and play? 

I suppose I just don't understand your math or your reasoning here... to me it's pretty simple:

2 million sales

1.7 milliion active subscribers

= 85% retention rate  (1.7 / 2.0)

 

 

MartinZ

Originally posted by Anolev

1.7 milliion active subscribers

= 85% retention rate  (1.7 / 2.0) 

Why would you claim something EA themselves already were forced to admit isn't true?

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

So, no, SWTOR doesn't have "1.7 million active subscribers". Whatever the actual number of subscribers is only EA knows and is too embarassed to admit. If the number of actual subscribers was good they would have come right out stated an exact number of current active paying subs.

Instead they played the silly game of using the fact that every single person who buys the game is forced to enter their credit card info and create an 'active sub'. So all those players who buy the game and who are still in their first free month are being used to artificially inflate EA's 'active subscribers'.

The 1.7 million number doesn't even make sense when one looks at the server populations and the number of completely dead or dying servers and how many players it would require there to be on the dwindling number of active servers.

 

Bunks

Originally posted by Anolev

Originally posted by Teala

Thought I would toss in my 2 cents.   I know right, you've probably been wondering were I was at.  Anyway, I look at it like this.  They sold just under 2.1 million copies(based on box sales and the fact that they said that 40% was digital) we know how many boxes were sold and if we do the math we can see they have sold 2,078,456 units of the game - roughly(based on box sales recorded by 3rd party sources such as NPD and Origins DL's-  on EA's own report that 40% of total sales were degital downloads from Origin).

They report that they have retained 1.7 million subscribers of those units sold(they could have rounded that number up or down so lets give them a shadow of a doubt and say they rounded down).   Most of those were sold in December prior to launch - in fact if we go by what EA's has told us about digital sales we can see that SWTOR sold 80% of the current total of units prior to the Dec 20th release date - 80%.

Then if we correlate the recently released info, we can guess that since the first month SWTOR has retained just over 60% of their player base.  That means a 40% drop in subscribers since release.

Now I do not know about you, but a game that lost almost 400k players in its first month of release - is not doing very good.

Just my take on this whole quarterly report story.  

I'm sorry, where did they say that 80% of their sales occurred before Dec 20th?

Because if they're saying that they've sold 2 million units, but they only announced having 1 million players 3 days AFTER launch (http://www.shacknews.com/article/71727/star-wars-the-old-republic-hits-a-million-players-28).  that means < 50% sold pre launch, and > 50% sold post launch. Or are you implying that they indeed sold 1.6 million in December, but only 1 million bothered to login and play? 

I suppose I just don't understand your math or your reasoning here... to me it's pretty simple:

2 million sales

1.7 milliion active subscribers

= 85% retention rate  (1.7 / 2.0)

 

 

You completely missed how EA intentionally ommited the date of each statement. For example, 1.7 subs, does that mean on 12/31/11 ? And does 2 million sales mean on confrence date of 2/1/12 ? Neither of those statements, without specifics, means much to brag about, unless you assume.

If there was somehting worth bragging about, he would have included the specific facts that 1.7 subs were as of 2/1/12, but he wouldnt clarify it on the phone or even afterwards when questioned. Wonder why?

[Deleted User]

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Staticzero

Originally posted by I_Return

http://www.google.com/finance?cid=168725

So your showing us EA is flat but is still higher then Blizzard .. And THQ is at  $ .50 . Now if EA only made  Sw:TOR . I think it would an issue.  The stock fell but Stocks falling after massive investment buying another company They have a much larger overhead now. Just because the game is making 25 mil a month does not mean it is profit.  Rarerly people take in account Overhead the fact even if BW is making profit in general That part gets pot in the major bigger Kittie to pay over head on the other projects EA is wokring on .. and by checking The currently have at least Two Projects BW alone is building that are not generating any Revenue ATM ME3 and DA3 . ..

When you use company stocks as indicator how one project is doing.. you fail to miss the point of what a company is doing .

It is also saying since SR:3 is doing so well THQ should be doing better then .50 a share.. but it is not the onyl project that company has done.

Even the small company I work for has 5 divisions that My division like the others have to help with the overehead on. My division making a profit  of 15% means I might get a raise and keep my job a bit longer , but in the same token the company as a whole is only getting 5% profit. 

So we can twist this around say OMG wow=failure it is trading at less then TOR.. RUN  hide the women and children the sky falling.   but it would just be a silly arguement to make as Blizzard is larger then WOW .. But WOW as old as it is  has lower over head as most the development costs are long paid for., and well TOR are just started to get padied back .

 

 

 

Kaocan

Originally posted by MartinZ

Originally posted by Anolev

1.7 milliion active subscribers

= 85% retention rate  (1.7 / 2.0) 

Why would you claim something EA themselves already were forced to admit isn't true?

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

So, no, SWTOR doesn't have "1.7 million active subscribers". Whatever the actual number of subscribers is only EA knows and is too embarassed to admit. If the number of actual subscribers was good they would have come right out stated an exact number of current active paying subs.

Instead they played the silly game of using the fact that every single person who buys the game is forced to enter their credit card info and create an 'active sub'. So all those players who buy the game and who are still in their first free month are being used to artificially inflate EA's 'active subscribers'.

The 1.7 million number doesn't even make sense when one looks at the server populations and the number of completely dead or dying servers and how many players it would require there to be on the dwindling number of active servers.

 

Simply amazing. The company comes out with thier press report where it only states 1.7 million active subscriber. Then they come out the next day and clarify that statement to help eliminate some of the supposition as to its overall meaning. And you come out on here and act like they lied about something? They didnt lie about a damn thing, they made a press statement and then made another one when they seen all the questions about it. Seriously, where do you people get off thinkin you have the right to call companies liars based solely on your own twisted fanatsies about your own self importance? All your doing is making sweeping generalizations, exaggerations, and assumptions. I'm sorry, but what you THINK is not a fact, it's simply WHAT YOU THINK. Stop trying to pass it off as fact in your arguments already.

And as for this silly little game requiring you to enter your card information to play a subscription based game, well that was brought on by all you people out there who have shown a growing trend of NOT paying for the product and expecting a free ride. How many games have come out in the past 2 years where a flood of people buy the box on thier CC, log in and play for the free 30 days, and stop payment on thier CC for the purchase? You know them, you have seen them talk about doing it on these very forums. EA got smart is all, they limited box sales, pushed online purchases with no refunds, and forced you to put in your CC number to play your free 30 days. That way if they seen your CC stop payment on the purchase they could stop you from playing for free. You dont like it...well you better get used to it...this is what you as the free-loader players have forced on the industry. It will continue because it has to to stop the people who want something for nothing.

MartinZ

Originally posted by Staticzero 

Just because the game is making 25 mil a month does not mean it is profit.   

EA isn't making 25 million(1.7 million * 15 dollars) a month on SWTOR. The game doesn't have 1.7 million paying subscribers.

 

Kaocan

Originally posted by MartinZ

Originally posted by Staticzero 

Just because the game is making 25 mil a month does not mean it is profit.   

EA isn't making 25 million(1.7 million * 15 dollars) a month on SWTOR. The game doesn't have 1.7 million paying subscribers.

 

That would suck wouldnt it though...if they actually did have the 1.7 million subscribers they say they have. That would mean everyone who said this game was dead at the 2 week mark would be WRONG! And they would have to come back here and appologize for telling lies to everyone. Man, I'm so happy there aren't 1.7 million paying subscribers for this game. I mean really, just imagine if a game came out and in the very first month is had 1/10 of ALL the paying subscribers WoW has dug out in the past 7 years. 

Staticzero

Originally posted by MartinZ

Originally posted by Staticzero 

Just because the game is making 25 mil a month does not mean it is profit.   

EA isn't making 25 million(1.7 million * 15 dollars) a month on SWTOR. The game doesn't have 1.7 million paying subscribers.

 

Try to blast something out of context one liner to make a point. Fine I will dumb it down , Just because the game has 1 or 1.7 million Subcribers doesnt mean it is making a profit.

The point was the number doesn't matter it how much cash after all overhead and debts are paid that determine stock value not one part of the company.

TOR is still only a small part of EA and it is not profitable yet. Every month in generates overhead if it kept the same staff it has now it has overhead , not to mention people wanting raises plus new equipment trips etc..

I am sure some account has a time table that All RD must be paid for to determine if TOR is a success or Failure according to EA metric.   My post wasn't arguing the Number of accounts the true number of active accounts is still unknown,

So Since you can't prove or disprove the game has or does not have "today" as current paying subscribers or sales. My arguement stil holds even with 25 mil a month (Subcribers plus new box / or Downloaded Sales) Does not mean the game is making a profit.

Can you understand that point now ?

 

MartinZ

Originally posted by Staticzero

Try to blast something out of context one liner to make a point. Fine I will dumb it down , Just because the game has 1 or 1.7 million Subcribers doesnt mean it is making a profit. 

You made an inane assertion.

You were corrected.

Get over it.

 

Precusor

This has to be the best thread ever.

[Deleted User]

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Eir_S

Wait, is this the total subscribers including people who subscribed because they HAD to in order to play the game?  Because I'm seeing "Light" on a ton of servers at peak hours that were standard or high earlier this year.  You're not going to convince me that this game has been as successful as some people wanted it to be.. sorry.

dubyahite

Icant even keep up with the misinformation in this thread.

People keep coming back spreading the same untruths every 10 pages or so. That's just sad.


I mean I just saw someone post that they lost 85% of their customers during early access. That's insane.