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Current Graphs Showing Decline - (Found something interesting).

TealaTeala Member RarePosts: 7,627

I find something rather interesting.  I know people keep saying you can't use xFire to measure the overall health of an MMO and it only shows the health of the game for those people that use xfire.   Cool, cool...if you want to believe that doesn't show the overall health of the game in general you're free to believe that.

However, when matched against SWArena.com's graphic of server population numbers I saw something very intersting.   The peaks and valleys from the two graphics match up very well.   SWArena.com numbers take into account only SWTOR and it's player base.  It is weird that these two websites graphcs are so close to being the same(check out the peaks and valleys) it is, in my opinion, very telling.

One thing is for certain, based on the numbers we're seeing from these two wesbites, SWTOR has lost a lot of players in just its first month.

 

 

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Comments

  • NazgolNazgol Member Posts: 864

    Wow people are now making up graphs on the fly. This is really sad.

    In Bioware we trust!

  • jpnzjpnz Member Posts: 3,529

    I'm sure the fact the holiday season is over for people that work has nothing to do with this. XD

    I wasn't able to login the past 2 days due to work. :(

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • TealaTeala Member RarePosts: 7,627

    Originally posted by Nazgol

    Wow people are now making up graphs on the fly. This is really sad.

    I am not making thse up on the fly.

    These are from legitimate wesbites.  SWTORArena.com and xfire.  Taken directly from those websites.  Nothing was made up.

  • NazgolNazgol Member Posts: 864

    Originally posted by Teala

    Originally posted by Nazgol

    Wow people are now making up graphs on the fly. This is really sad.

    I am not making thse up on the fly.

    These are from legitimate wesbites.  SWTORArena.com and xfire.  Taken directly from those websites.  Nothing was made up.

    Swtorarena.com? What I am getting is they get their data from the sever status page which only tells you the current load, not how many people are on a given server. Like I said, it's sad.

    In Bioware we trust!

  • drbaltazardrbaltazar Member UncommonPosts: 7,856

    xfire isnt exaclty the best marker go check twitch,own3d at night always around 50+player streaming !so nope this data has hole issue!too many use alternative to xfire or other tool from their country

  • TealaTeala Member RarePosts: 7,627

    Originally posted by Nazgol

    Originally posted by Teala


    Originally posted by Nazgol

    Wow people are now making up graphs on the fly. This is really sad.

    I am not making thse up on the fly.

    These are from legitimate wesbites.  SWTORArena.com and xfire.  Taken directly from those websites.  Nothing was made up.

    Swtorarena.com? What I am getting is they get their data from the sever status page which only tells you the current load, not how many people are on a given server. Like I said, it's sad.

    Umm..ok.

  • jpnzjpnz Member Posts: 3,529

    I really like the fact that a game that has been out a month today can have such qualities as 'declined numbers' or 'lost players'.

    As someone who looks after his own portfolio, it is a bit strange to see that but whatever, it is these kinds of 'analysis' that ensures I can make money in the stockmarket.

    Yes, I bet that the EA stock will rise from yesterday's drop cause the drop didn't make any sense what-so-ever. What of it? :)

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • lalartulalartu Member UncommonPosts: 437

    well losing subscribers is not unusual, but losing them fast is not a good sign

     

    I think the rule of the thumb is 1/2 every month and after about 6 months it should reach a stable number

    except of course for the fact that in 6 months there will GW2, Diablo 3 and most likely The Secret World to enjoy too, which will probably reduce that peak dramatically.

     

    the only way EA can retain people is by releasing tons of new content, but unfortunately if they see no profits, they might be inclined to just turning this into another SWG

    I review lots of indie games and MMORPGs

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359

    Interesting, so according to their statistics, the servers had an all time peak of about 800K around release.  Now it seems like peaktimes are around 420K.

    But...this is population not subs.  People are more likely to log into a game when they first buy it, so population will always be skewed very high at release.  So I don't think it means that nearly 50% of people unsubbed...but I think it does mean that a significant amount did.

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • TealaTeala Member RarePosts: 7,627

    Originally posted by drbaltazar

    xfire isnt exaclty the best marker go check twitch,own3d at night always around 50+player streaming !so nope this data has hole issue!too many use alternative to xfire or other tool from their country

    You are missing the point.   How is it that two wesbites show the same decline and show the same peaks and valleys?   I find it strange that two websites that are not correlated in anyway, show the same kinds of numbers.

  • OzivoisOzivois Member UncommonPosts: 598

    Those graphs don't match, are you kidding us?

  • MetentsoMetentso Member UncommonPosts: 1,437

    Of course they match, unless something out of the ordinary happens, like for instance xFire starting a publicity campaign or xFire starting charging to use it, but in general they have to match. But you just stirred a bee hive :)

  • TheHavokTheHavok Member UncommonPosts: 2,423

    While I do not trust websites like the ones OP listed, since they are third party, independant sources, I will say that as a player I have noticed a drop in population.

    People can contribute this to many things: Holidays are over, school starting again, people coming back from vacation, ect.  But the fact of the matter is, the population is decreasing.

  • NazgolNazgol Member Posts: 864

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Yep. As expected, first month is ending for most people and by the end of the month we should be seeing atleast a 50% drop in both these graphs.

    Fans will ofcourse say the graphs shows nothing but we know better.

    It shows nothing. 

    In Bioware we trust!

  • DarkPonyDarkPony Member Posts: 5,566

    Now factor in holiday season and people having lots of free time in the first weeks after launch.

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Member Posts: 5,359

    Originally posted by Teala

    Originally posted by drbaltazar

    xfire isnt exaclty the best marker go check twitch,own3d at night always around 50+player streaming !so nope this data has hole issue!too many use alternative to xfire or other tool from their country

    You are missing the point.   How is it that two wesbites show the same decline and show the same peaks and valleys?   I find it strange that two websites that are not correlated in anyway, show the same kinds of numbers.

     The peaks and valleys are easily explained by peak user times.  People play games when they are off work and before bed :).  This will be the same with any graph.

    But yeah, I think that server population definitely is declining.

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • JeroKaneJeroKane Member EpicPosts: 6,959

    Originally posted by TheHavok

    While I do not trust websites like the ones OP listed, since they are third party, independant sources, I will say that as a player I have noticed a drop in population.

    People can contribute this to many things: Holidays are over, school starting again, people coming back from vacation, ect.  But the fact of the matter is, the population is decreasing.

     I saw it on my own server as well. Quite a huge drop in players online during EU primetime compared to two weeks ago. Server went from Full to Standard in just two weeks. :-/

  • TealaTeala Member RarePosts: 7,627

    Originally posted by Ozivois

    Those graphs don't match, are you kidding us?

    Yeah they do match.  Look at the peaks, then look at the valleys and if you look at the dates you see they are almost identical.  I also believe that yes it does show decline in players.   Just my opinion of course.   :)

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel Member LegendaryPosts: 12,173

    There should be a decline,  at least in activity.  There are a few ways to look at it...

     

    1) People left (which is inevitable)

    2) People aren't playing as much per day (also inevitable -- school just started as well for their main demographic)

    3) BioWare could have some additional downtime (we know they did recently)

    4) Everything posted negatively on this site is 100% true and the game is planned to go F2P tomorrow

     

    Truthfully, I'm sure the decline is a little bit of all of those.  Some people left for whatever reason,  the population have evened out quite a bit and less people are logging as many hours, and the additional downtime and hotfixes are decreasing a lot of playtime.

     

    It could be catastrophic,  or really small....  due to not knowing any real numbers on population retention.. theres no telling.

     

    In 6 months no matter how well it does everyone will still say it failed anyways, so what the point?



  • sirphobossirphobos Member UncommonPosts: 620

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    What you're looking at is people are playing fewer hours per day. It says nothing about subscription numbers either way.

     

  • drbaltazardrbaltazar Member UncommonPosts: 7,856

    the stock on ea dropped because one analyst PREDICTED it would be at 28 and revised his estimate of EA at 22

    theorycrafting games might be easy but theorycraftin a company as big as EA ?come on people are nervous like rabbit they over ract in stock market since the crash of the market in 2008!i would say ea is gona close the stock would drop half(yep stupid!

  • NazgolNazgol Member Posts: 864

    Originally posted by Creslin321

    Originally posted by Teala


    Originally posted by drbaltazar

    xfire isnt exaclty the best marker go check twitch,own3d at night always around 50+player streaming !so nope this data has hole issue!too many use alternative to xfire or other tool from their country

    You are missing the point.   How is it that two wesbites show the same decline and show the same peaks and valleys?   I find it strange that two websites that are not correlated in anyway, show the same kinds of numbers.

     The peaks and valleys are easily explained by peak user times.  People play games when they are off work and before bed :).  This will be the same with any graph.

    But yeah, I think that server population definitely is declining.

    All MMO's decline some after the first month, it's normal.  It's whether it keeps declining is what should be watched. DId not notice much of decline on my server.

    In Bioware we trust!

  • Thomas2006Thomas2006 Member RarePosts: 1,152

    Teala you should also note that right on the SWTOR Arena website under the FAQ it clearly states..

    "Can I make guesses on overall subscription count based on these graphs?
    No you shouldn't be relying on them to make so guesses. These graph purely relies on instantaneous server population values provided by Bioware, nothing more."

    So using them to try and predict any type of population setup is not a good ideal. Just as they state right on there website and with a link right under the graphs.

    For all we know bioware could easily change the values for the stats shown at any time. They have already stated on the forums they have tweaked the server caps and the values reported by the server load screen.

  • jpnzjpnz Member Posts: 3,529

    Originally posted by drbaltazar

    the stock on ea dropped because one analyst PREDICTED it would be at 28 and revised his estimate of EA at 22

    theorycrafting games might be easy but theorycraftin a company as big as EA ?come on people are nervous like rabbit they over ract in stock market since the crash of the market in 2008!i would say ea is gona close the stock would drop half(yep stupid!

    The sell out of EA on thursday caught some people off-guard but the adjustment was made on friday.

    There is a saying 'Market can handle bad news, it doesn't handle bad surprizes'.

    There were no bad surprizes regarding EA so the sell-out was a dumb financial move that a lot of people profited from (including myself).

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • ArkiniaArkinia Member Posts: 251

    Originally posted by Teala

    Originally posted by Nazgol

    Wow people are now making up graphs on the fly. This is really sad.

    I am not making thse up on the fly.

    These are from legitimate wesbites.  SWTORArena.com and xfire.  Taken directly from those websites.  Nothing was made up.

    looks made up to me.

This discussion has been closed.