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WoW population is crashing big time

GameOvrGameOvr Phoenix, AZPosts: 55Member

According to data on WarcraftRealms, MMOData and using the Internet Archive...



7 months ago there were 4 US servers with less than 1000 characters observed by wow census in 30 days, now there are over 40 of these servers, EU is worse, with 60 of them. This is a tremendous downward momentum.

Servers support 25,000 accounts each, there are over 100 servers with less than 4% capacity (based on no characters are alts).

The high water mark of subscriptions, which includes cataclysm release was 12 million, 6 in NA/EU and 6 in Asia.



Total player population observed by wow census now  is 1.9 million characters in the US, the last time wow census saw those numbers was Aug 2005 (1.7 mil, next archive is next year with 2.3 mil), and there were 3 million NA/EU subs back then. It looks like wow has lost 50% of subs in one year and one expansion.



 

 

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/realmstats.php?sort=Total

http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-1.png

http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/WoW.png

http://www.archive.org/

 

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Comments

  • marinridermarinrider Tomball, TXPosts: 1,556Member

    I would have believed you until you said 50% sub loss.  In no way to I believe they have lost that many.  I could almost believe 30% at most but 50% is a bit high.

  • OziiusOziius Baltimore, MDPosts: 1,388Member Uncommon
    You have to remember that those census rely on players running that program. So why I'm sure the numbers have dropped a bit, those census are not always a great tool to determine. I was in a guild of about 500 and no one used those census programs. I wouldn't doubt there has been a drop though. I for one haven't played wow since TOR came out, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Like usual, I'm sure the number will pick back up for the expansion. I still think wow is a great game.
  • DragonantisDragonantis DublinPosts: 974Member

    We have one of these threads at least once a week.

    But if those numbers are correct it would show a turn for the worse for WoW.

    BUT!

    Blizzard has a record of always releasing a patch or expansion everytime this happens to recover their numbers.

    BUT!

    That last patch didnt see alot of thrills and player returns even though it gave WoW players what they asked for for 5 years. Heck even me, Ive been a WoW player since vanilla and I quit a few times a year and comeback for patches but this is the first one I didnt even bother to return for.

    It will be interesting to see how the numbers pan out with the new games in 2012.

    that was alot of buts...

     

  • GameOvrGameOvr Phoenix, AZPosts: 55Member

    When the census showed full servers and populations that were reasonable for sub numbers I bet you had no problem with the data.

     

    This data has been collected the same way for seven years, it does not need to be perfect to be informative.

  • GameOvrGameOvr Phoenix, AZPosts: 55Member

    Originally posted by Dragonantis

    Blizzard has a record of always releasing a patch or expansion everytime this happens to recover their numbers.

     

     

    Actually wow subs has never gone down by even 1 subscription in total subs except wrath lost 500 k until cata release. It is not a happens every xpac thing. Edit: and the time wow was unavalable in China due to content and operations changes, they pay by the hour anyway.

     

    Cata lost all those subs in about 3 weeks, and went down to BC numbers in 1-2 months, then lost a couple million more. All before MoP announced.

  • SuperXero89SuperXero89 Amory, MSPosts: 2,544Member Uncommon

    I logged into WoW for a free seven days, and there was like no one in Stormwind at 4:00 AM.   Take that how you will lol

  • stayontargetstayontarget Tacoma, WAPosts: 6,068Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by GameOvr

    According to data on WarcraftRealms, MMOData and using the Internet Archive...



    7 months ago there were 4 US servers with less than 1000 characters observed by wow census in 30 days, now there are over 40 of these servers, EU is worse, with 60 of them. This is a tremendous downward momentum.

    Servers support 25,000 accounts each, there are over 100 servers with less than 4% capacity (based on no characters are alts).

    The high water mark of subscriptions, which includes cataclysm release was 12 million, 6 in NA/EU and 6 in Asia.



    Total player population observed now  is 1.9 million characters in the US, the last time wow census saw those numbers was Aug 2005, and there were 3 million NA/EU subs back then. It looks like wow has lost 50% of subs in one year and one expansion.



     

    I've never played wow but if your going to make references from other sources you should post the links so we can verify.

    Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...

  • marinridermarinrider Tomball, TXPosts: 1,556Member

    Originally posted by GameOvr

    When the census showed full servers and populations that were reasonable for sub numbers I bet you had no problem with the data.

     

    This data has been collected the same way for seven years, it does not need to be perfect to be informative.

    I would believe it just as much as I do now.  Im not saying its completly wrong but I'm skeptical of it. 

  • Dreamo84Dreamo84 Niagara Falls, NYPosts: 3,437Member Uncommon

    Who cares? Everyone takes this stuff so personally. Unless you own stock in Blizzard or Bioware or anything other MMO company, why do you care? If you wanna play it, play it, if you dont, dont. Why does anyone care who else plays it?

    image
  • GameOvrGameOvr Phoenix, AZPosts: 55Member

    Originally posted by marinrider

     

    I would believe it just as much as I do now.  Im not saying its completly wrong but I'm skeptical of it. 

     

    if you google warcraft merge servers then use the advanced option to limit to last 30 days you get 154,000 hits. Most amusing are the ones that point to blizzard forums where they deleted or locked the thread. Like that will help.

  • stayontargetstayontarget Tacoma, WAPosts: 6,068Member Uncommon

    Remember a lot of the player base are locked in with 1 year subs in order to get a free copy of D3.  I'm not surprised that pop is down, esp after 7 years online but they got time.

    Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...

  • SlampigSlampig Chantilly, VAPosts: 2,376Member Uncommon

    What servers are all these people leaving? The server I play on seems pretty darn packed, even later into the night.

    That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!

  • TheHavokTheHavok San Jose, CAPosts: 2,398Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by GameOvr

    According to data on WarcraftRealms, MMOData and using the Internet Archive...



    7 months ago there were 4 US servers with less than 1000 characters observed by wow census in 30 days, now there are over 40 of these servers, EU is worse, with 60 of them. This is a tremendous downward momentum.

    Servers support 25,000 accounts each, there are over 100 servers with less than 4% capacity (based on no characters are alts).

    The high water mark of subscriptions, which includes cataclysm release was 12 million, 6 in NA/EU and 6 in Asia.



    Total player population observed now  is 1.9 million characters in the US, the last time wow census saw those numbers was Aug 2005, and there were 3 million NA/EU subs back then. It looks like wow has lost 50% of subs in one year and one expansion.



     

    This thread again...

    When will people realize that warcraftrealms.com and MMOdata.net are very inaccurate websites?  I find it hilarious you mention both these sites, and I don't even know what you are referring to as "internet archive..". 

    MMOdata.net: Relies on the data provided by public statements made by the publishers of these MMOs when stating their total sub numbers.  As many people know, MOST MMO publishers are very tight lip about their numbers, broadcasting them very rarely.  Thus, the numbers presented are extremely inconsistent and usually out of date due to publishers rarely disclosing their sub numbers and CCU.  The site hasn't been updated since October, and that was news on a new chat system.

    Warcraftrealms.com: Relies on players of WoW to download a mod and use said mod while playing.  This mod takes a tally of everybody in every zone at that given time.  Sounds great, but people only use the mod once, if at all, then go about leveling, raiding, pvping, ect.  Not only that but hardly ANYBODY uses this mod anymore.  So unless this mod is constantly being used by BOTH factions 24/7 on ALL servers in the US, EU, and Asia, the results of this mod's use will not be accurate.  Warcraftrealms.com has also stated that they do not have enough submissions (people using the mod and uploading their data) on multiple realms, thus leaving out HUGE chunks of missing information which equates to missing sub and CCU numbers.

    Dont believe me?  Look at all the 0% on the server realms.  That means nobody for that server's specific faction used the mod.  And why should they?  They are too busy actually having FUN.

    http://www.warcraftrealms.com/realmstats.php

     

    Why does every nub who stumbles upon these sites feel the need to act like they found the holy grail of WoW demise news?

  • GameOvrGameOvr Phoenix, AZPosts: 55Member

    Originally posted by TheHavok

     

    This thread again...

    When will people realize that warcraftrealms.com and MMOdata.net are very inaccurate websites? 

     

    MMOData goes by blizzards numbers, you know earnings calls, what they tell investors and the press, MMOData numbers are blizzards numbers.

     

    {mod edit}

     

    Zero reporting realms, from memory, in the US 7 months ago there was 1, a year ago 0, there is nobody there to run the census anymore.

     

    Internet archive keeps copies of websites in the past.

  • sk8chalifsk8chalif Montreal, QCPosts: 599Member Uncommon

    So what?

    i think its pretty normal that its going down bit by bit.. after 7 years ,

     

    image
    ~The only opinion that matters is your own.Everything else is just advice,~

  • drbaltazardrbaltazar drummondville, QCPosts: 7,987Member

    it is very easy to see we use to get 100 live stream on x fire now if there are 50 it is a perak day!yes some moved to twitch ,but i believe it is really close to 40% people are moving on but only because blizzard unknowingly changed the way they were since one of activison rep is in the house everybody is careful etc unintentionally they didnt have that before they were the boss

    remove the dum ass rep from activisojn in blizzard and blizzard will go back to what it does good success.now it isnt a blizzard game anymore it is an activision game!

  • TheHavokTheHavok San Jose, CAPosts: 2,398Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by GameOvr

    Originally posted by TheHavok


     

    This thread again...

    When will people realize that warcraftrealms.com and MMOdata.net are very inaccurate websites? 

     

    MMOData goes by blizzards numbers, you know earnings calls, what they tell investors and the press, MMOData numbers are blizzards numbers.

     

    {mod edit}

     

    Zero reporting realms, from memory, in the US 7 months ago there was 1, a year ago 0, there is nobody there to run the census anymore.

     

    Internet archive keeps copies of websites in the past.

    Data like this, that state WoW's subcription base at 10.3 million - the latest conference call of this year (Q3)? 

    {mod edit}

  • OgreRaperOgreRaper Detroit, MIPosts: 376Member

    The population will probably decline a bit for awhile. Until Mists of Pandaria is released, then it will be a huge increase in players coming back, and even new players too. I personally am taking a break from WoW and intend to go back when the expansion launches. I'm sure there are quite a few people who are doing the same.

  • drbaltazardrbaltazar drummondville, QCPosts: 7,987Member

    Originally posted by TheHavok

    Originally posted by GameOvr


    Originally posted by TheHavok


     

    This thread again...

    When will people realize that warcraftrealms.com and MMOdata.net are very inaccurate websites? 

     

    MMOData goes by blizzards numbers, you know earnings calls, what they tell investors and the press, MMOData numbers are blizzards numbers.

     

    {mod edit}

     

    Zero reporting realms, from memory, in the US 7 months ago there was 1, a year ago 0, there is nobody there to run the census anymore.

     

    Internet archive keeps copies of websites in the past.

    Data like this, that state WoW's subcription base at 10.3 million - the latest conference call of this year (Q3)? 

    {mod edit}

    3 quater?dam that was what 4 month ago 5 month ago? even in the artical you supply he does say wow is very succesfull mostly in asia!so the other poster isnt as off as you make it seem!it was 10.3 m 4 month ago but now ,with the various game gone f2p and swtor i bet thety arent more then 9 million and the only reason they arent lower is because swtor isnt avail in japan and china yet!it isnt dead in the least elsewhere in the world but in america i bet there arent more then 2 million .

    it is sad tho to see it going down because someone put activison rep in there it is what is holding back the imagination of blizzard .it was expected people go like they walk on egg ,they arent bold like they were when activison left them to their job and didnt try to send spy that the boss as no control over!

  • TheHavokTheHavok San Jose, CAPosts: 2,398Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by GameOvr

    When the census showed full servers and populations that were reasonable for sub numbers I bet you had no problem with the data.

     

    This data has been collected the same way for seven years, it does not need to be perfect to be informative.

    Ah, spewing more lies - and checking your posting history, it seems you have a tendency to hate on big bad WoW (sadface)

    "This data has been collected the same way for seven years, it does not need to be perfect to be informative".  Actually, BECAUSE the data has NOT been collected the same way for the past seven years, it shows how inaccurate it is.  Wink WInk, you are wrong...just stop posting before you make yourself look any worst then you already do.

  • GameOvrGameOvr Phoenix, AZPosts: 55Member

    yep you caught me I played for 6 1/2 years and have over a year of played time on one character because I hate wow.

  • warmaster670warmaster670 Simcoe, ONPosts: 1,384Member

    Originally posted by GameOvr

    yep you caught me I played for 6 1/2 years and have over a year of played time on one character because I hate wow.

    you seem to be under the assumption that you cant dislike a game youve played, that assumption is wrong

    Apparently stating the truth in my sig is "trolling"
    Sig typo fixed thanks to an observant stragen001.

  • Ambros123Ambros123 Neverneverland, TNPosts: 877Member

    Some are off testing out SWTOR which the 30 free days is still up.  Give a month or two time and you'll see a shift from SWTOR when they had their fill of the story quests and back to WoW.  This happens with every new AAA MMO.

    Sometimes people just need a break from an MMO to recharge their batteries which SWTOR is a great distraction for a bit.

  • PainlezzPainlezz Laguna Hills, CAPosts: 616Member Uncommon

    So much wow hate on this site it's unreal.  Even with SWTOR out, the wow hate continues!  An entire thread dedicated to "WoW is dying!"  every other day it seems.

    I think people ignore everything WoW has done for the MMORPG world.  I bet if any of you loaded up the very first release version of DAOC, EQ2, or any other mainstream MMO you would hate it.  So many things have become "standard" for MMO's because of WoW.

    Look at FPS games.  Some of you may remember back when you couldn't jump, climb, look up or down...  EVERY FPS comes standard with jumping, looking up and down... hell most of them use cover systems these days.  Someome came up with a good idea (let players jump) and it was such a good idea that any game w/o the feature is considered bad.

    Anyway, I hate to come across as a WoW or Blizzard fanboy.  I like to comment that I was not a fan of Starcraft 2 (the story was fun to play once).  But I get really sick of the constant hate here.  Grow up, move on, find something that makes you happy, and stop the hate.

  • TheHavokTheHavok San Jose, CAPosts: 2,398Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by drbaltazar

    Originally posted by TheHavok


    Originally posted by GameOvr


    Originally posted by TheHavok


     

    This thread again...

    When will people realize that warcraftrealms.com and MMOdata.net are very inaccurate websites? 

     

    MMOData goes by blizzards numbers, you know earnings calls, what they tell investors and the press, MMOData numbers are blizzards numbers.

     

    {mod edit}

     

    Zero reporting realms, from memory, in the US 7 months ago there was 1, a year ago 0, there is nobody there to run the census anymore.

     

    Internet archive keeps copies of websites in the past.

    Data like this, that state WoW's subcription base at 10.3 million - the latest conference call of this year (Q3)? 

    {mod edit}

    3 quater?dam that was what 4 month ago 5 month ago? even in the artical you supply he does say wow is very succesfull mostly in asia!so the other poster isnt as off as you make it seem!it was 10.3 m 4 month ago but now ,with the various game gone f2p and swtor i bet thety arent more then 9 million and the only reason they arent lower is because swtor isnt avail in japan and china yet!



    Ah, well my point of posting that is to showcase Blizzard's latest release of their sub numbers for WoW.  Which, based on MMOdata.net's means of gathering and reporting information, would mean that MMOdata.net is reporting WoW at 10.3 million.  HOWEVER, if you take a look at MMOdata.net's numbers, they showcase WoW subs at over 11 million - which is inaccurate.  So, again, the site he references, is proven inaccurate.  Additionally, he references warcraftrealms.com multiple times which never accurately showcased WoW's numbers for reasons ive previously mentioned in this thread.  Yeah, WoW's numbers have dropped, to what, I don't know exactly and we wont find out till February during the Q4 report.  But making a statement like "It looks like wow has lost 50% of subs in one year and one expansion" {mod edit}

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