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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

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Comments

  • jmcdermottukjmcdermottuk LiverpoolPosts: 976Member Uncommon

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

  • VhalnVhaln Chicago, ILPosts: 3,159Member

    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    By that logic no polling mechanism would be relevant because "not everyone was answering the poll".

  • hikaru77hikaru77 buenos airesPosts: 1,035Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Yamota

    http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

    No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

    what does that mean?, and AION? that game got like 10 servers or less at launch in NA, swtor have more than 100, with a queue. And the population in swtor is growing everyday, is not droping, and they have the 1st expansion early next month, so again, whats the point of this?

  • ThillianThillian BratislavaPosts: 3,143Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

    REALITY CHECK

  • onthestickonthestick MarrakechPosts: 600Member

    Originally posted by Vhaln

    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

    How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

    ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
    US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
    Subs will be so low there is no need for more
    Snoocky-How many servers?
    The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

    Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member

    Originally posted by Vhaln

    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    The game is almost always the most popular the first weeks after launch so if the game does not pick up in the next couple of weeks then this is indeed the peak. Specially considering that many people are free during the christmas holidays and all.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member

    Originally posted by onthestick

    Originally posted by Vhaln

    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

    Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel houston, TXPosts: 7,277Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by Vhaln

    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    The game is almost always the most popular the first weeks after launch so if the game does not pick up in the next couple of weeks then this is indeed the peak. Specially considering that many people are free during the christmas holidays and all.

    Free..... spending time with family.  I spent more time not playing over the past few days then I did in preorder...  I no longer use Xfire to track my playtime anyway.. I just keep the sig so I can pick out my posts a lot easier.

    "Loan me a Dragon I wanna see space"


    image

  • fonyfony hempstead, NYPosts: 755Member

    AION servers probably hold ten times the amount of players than SWTOR servers.

     

    Xfire was a great metric of player activity just a few days ago, watch that change now.

  • onthestickonthestick MarrakechPosts: 600Member

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by onthestick


    Originally posted by Vhaln

    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

    Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

    Thanks for just confirming what i said earlier.

    How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

    ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
    US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
    Subs will be so low there is no need for more
    Snoocky-How many servers?
    The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

    Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  • SideTraKdSideTraKd Indianapolis, INPosts: 100Member

    Originally posted by Thillian

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

    But it isn't a random sampling of the mmo communities, since only certain types of players would ever bother to use it.

  • VhalnVhaln Chicago, ILPosts: 3,159Member

    Originally posted by onthestick

    Originally posted by Vhaln

    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

     

    Was meant to be tongue in cheek.  I think there's a grain of truth to it for some, but an exaggeration to be funny, at least.

     

    When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    By that logic no polling mechanism would be relevant because "not everyone was answering the poll".

    What you're doing isn't within miles of "polling".  Xfire breaks the very first rule about the validity of polling.

    "When you are confronted with a new poll, ask the following questions about it:



    • Is the sample scientifically selected or self-selected? If self-selected, the poll is only good for entertainment.


    • What is the poll's margin of error? Are any comparisons reported?such as changes in popularity, record highs or lows, or comparisons between candidates?which lie within twice the margin of error, that is, the confidence interval? If so, they are statistically insignificant.


    • Have other polls on this issue been done recently? If so, it is a good idea to compare the new poll with these others:


      • If the results of the new poll are significantly different from those of most other polls?that is, a difference greater than the confidence interval?then the new poll is probably unreliable.


      • If the results of the new poll are within the confidence interval from those of most other polls, then those results are probably reliable, even if they are not statistically significant as individuals.


    If the poll you are confronted with fails at any step of this checklist, or if you can't find the answer to these questions in the report, then your confidence in the poll should be much less than 95%."

    Xfire isn't polling, by any stretch of the imagination--or rather, it's no more or less of a "poll" than any other online method...not very much.

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • ThillianThillian BratislavaPosts: 3,143Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by SideTraKd

    Originally posted by Thillian


    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

    But it isn't a random sampling of the mmo communities, since only certain types of players would ever bother to use it.

    Yes my last sentence was pointing that out. However, even pre-election estimates does not have totally random sampling, since not everyone is willing to answer the questions. It might affect the result slighly, but not significantly.

    REALITY CHECK

  • zymurgeistzymurgeist Pittsville, VAPosts: 5,215Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    By that logic no polling mechanism would be relevant because "not everyone was answering the poll".

     Self selected polling methods are irrelevant. Random polls, which xfire is not, are sometimes useful but not always. After all Dewey deated Truman right?

    "Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  • slickbizzleslickbizzle Matthews, NCPosts: 464Member

    I have never used xFire. The more I think about it, nobody I know uses it.

  • fonyfony hempstead, NYPosts: 755Member

    yikes. same guys touting Xfire numbers the other day when their fav game was at 50% of WoW's users now say it don't matter.

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel houston, TXPosts: 7,277Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by fony

    yikes. same guys touting Xfire numbers the other day when their fav game was at 50% of WoW's users now say it don't matter.

    It never mattered.  Didn't to the whiners then and won't to the fans now....   to those of us who don't care (like me, who used to use Xfire)  its just something else people will choose to rave or grief about.

    "Loan me a Dragon I wanna see space"


    image

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member

    Originally posted by fony

    yikes. same guys touting Xfire numbers the other day when their fav game was at 50% of WoW's users now say it don't matter.

    Statistically, it doesn't.  No further comment necessary.

    Several people positively eager to read bad/good news into suspect data?  Yep, there's always lots of those guys.

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • zymurgeistzymurgeist Pittsville, VAPosts: 5,215Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by onthestick

    Originally posted by Vhaln

    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

    Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

     No they'll just say MMOs are no longer profitable and stop making them. The second greatest driver of innovation is a thriving market with lots of competition. The first is, of course, war. SWTOR isn't shallow just because you don't like it.

    "Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  • onthestickonthestick MarrakechPosts: 600Member

    Originally posted by fony

    yikes. same guys touting Xfire numbers the other day when their fav game was at 50% of WoW's users now say it don't matter.

    And what makes you think people took that seriously? i am in gaming community which is 100 active members strong spread over 4 mmos and none of us ever used XFIRE. 

    How many servers SWTOR will launch with on release?

    ShredderSE - Umm how many do they need? Maybe 6.
    US, EU, Asian, France, German and Russian.
    Subs will be so low there is no need for more
    Snoocky-How many servers?
    The first 3 months a lot...after that 2 i guess, one for PVE and 1 for PVP...

    Thorbrand - SWTOR doesn't have longevity at all. Might be one of the shortest lived MMOs.

  • SideTraKdSideTraKd Indianapolis, INPosts: 100Member

    Originally posted by Thillian

    Originally posted by SideTraKd


    Originally posted by Thillian


    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

    But it isn't a random sampling of the mmo communities, since only certain types of players would ever bother to use it.

    Yes my last sentence was pointing that out. However, even pre-election estimates does not have totally random sampling, since not everyone is willing to answer the questions. It might affect the result slighly, but not significantly.

    There is a bit of a difference between the two, but I cede your point.  I was only saying that X-Fire attracts a certain type of player, and will only show results from those players.  Their tastes are similar to each other's and not necessarily representative of the gaming community as a whole.  How many addictive games aren't even on the list that have sold millions of copies..?

    I have no doubt that more X-Fire users are deeply into LoL...  But I'm less certain that it translates to the gaming community as a whole.

  • ktanner3ktanner3 lakeland, FLPosts: 4,074Member Common
    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by onthestick


    Originally posted by Vhaln


    A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

    Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

    Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

     

    Keep on dreaming.

    Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic

  • DarthRahlikDarthRahlik GothenburgPosts: 6Member

    Xfire?

    Foo? What is Xfire? Never heard of it.

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