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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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  • sanosukexsanosukex Member Posts: 1,836

    Originally posted by Vato26

    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


     

    Yet, that is your opinion.  I, and many others are enjoying the game, will resub, and will tell our friends our experiences in the game and why we enjoy it.  Just because you think a game is mediocre does not mean the game is actually mediocre.

     

    As to your "6-12 month" bar.... well, we've all seen these before.  The doom 'n gloomers first said "1 month"... and, when that didn't happen, now you are all saying "6 to 12 months".  And, if that doesn't happen, then you'll spout out "18 to 24 months". 

    It's a continual cycle that has been seen for countless MMORPGs that the doom 'n gloomers hate.

    doom and gloomers said months 3-6 not month 1 try again..

     

    and yes the game is mediocre sorry.. and yes its my opinion and shared by many others but if people can't see this game is mediocre I feel sad for the future of this genre..

     Some Doom and gloomers started claiming one month a week before launch. Then there was the "massive exodous" thread with claimed xfire support three weeks after launch. Of course there were scattered claims that the game would be free to play in a month etc. Trolls will say anything the more outrageous the better. People who know nothing but speak often are now moving from 2-3 months to 6-12 months. None of it has anything to do with facts.

    Exactly.  It's interesting that some of them forgot the 1 month claims.

    who made those claims? I know I sure as hell didn't and anyone who did was just trolling you guys

  • sanosukexsanosukex Member Posts: 1,836

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


     

    Yet, that is your opinion.  I, and many others are enjoying the game, will resub, and will tell our friends our experiences in the game and why we enjoy it.  Just because you think a game is mediocre does not mean the game is actually mediocre.

     

    As to your "6-12 month" bar.... well, we've all seen these before.  The doom 'n gloomers first said "1 month"... and, when that didn't happen, now you are all saying "6 to 12 months".  And, if that doesn't happen, then you'll spout out "18 to 24 months". 

    It's a continual cycle that has been seen for countless MMORPGs that the doom 'n gloomers hate.

    doom and gloomers said months 3-6 not month 1 try again..

     

    and yes the game is mediocre sorry.. and yes its my opinion and shared by many others but if people can't see this game is mediocre I feel sad for the future of this genre..

     Some Doom and gloomers started claiming one month a week before launch. Then there was the "massive exodous" thread with claimed xfire support three weeks after launch. Of course there were scattered claims that the game would be free to play in a month etc. Trolls will say anything the more outrageous the better. People who know nothing but speak often are now moving from 2-3 months to 6-12 months. None of it has anything to do with facts.

    Exactly.  It's interesting that some of them forgot the 1 month claims.

    who made those claims? I know I sure as hell didn't and anyone who did was just trolling you guys

     Would you care to have your Crow poached or roasted?

    so what are you trying to say? I said most people who really beleive this game is going to fail said it would do so around month 3-6.. if someone came here making claims game would tank in one month they were just trolling you guys

  • ChieftanChieftan Member UncommonPosts: 1,188

    Originally posted by watchawatcha

    It's number 5 in the ranks right now with no change in 12 days.  That's good isn't it?

    /confused

    Ya it's one of only two games in the top 5 that charge a sub fee.  The other is WoW with it's kajillion subscribers.

     

    The closest MMO after it is AION at #20.  It's showing 5513 hours played compared to SWTOR's 48,650.  LOTR is free and it's down at #25.  Rift is at 41.  Everquest is at 179 and EQ2 is at 192.  AOC is at 86.

     

    I personally make a point to not run background programs when I'm playing online games--from the performance hit to compatibility issues to possibly being banned--its not worth it.  Apart from pinging servers for you I don't even know why anyone would use it.

    My youtube MMO gaming channel



  • TealaTeala Member RarePosts: 7,627

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


     

    Yet, that is your opinion.  I, and many others are enjoying the game, will resub, and will tell our friends our experiences in the game and why we enjoy it.  Just because you think a game is mediocre does not mean the game is actually mediocre.

     

    As to your "6-12 month" bar.... well, we've all seen these before.  The doom 'n gloomers first said "1 month"... and, when that didn't happen, now you are all saying "6 to 12 months".  And, if that doesn't happen, then you'll spout out "18 to 24 months". 

    It's a continual cycle that has been seen for countless MMORPGs that the doom 'n gloomers hate.

    doom and gloomers said months 3-6 not month 1 try again..

     

    and yes the game is mediocre sorry.. and yes its my opinion and shared by many others but if people can't see this game is mediocre I feel sad for the future of this genre..

     Some Doom and gloomers started claiming one month a week before launch. Then there was the "massive exodous" thread with claimed xfire support three weeks after launch. Of course there were scattered claims that the game would be free to play in a month etc. Trolls will say anything the more outrageous the better. People who know nothing but speak often are now moving from 2-3 months to 6-12 months. None of it has anything to do with facts.

    Exactly.  It's interesting that some of them forgot the 1 month claims.

    who made those claims? I know I sure as hell didn't and anyone who did was just trolling you guys

     Would you care to have your Crow poached or roasted?

    so what are you trying to say? I said most people who really beleive this game is going to fail said it would do so around month 3-6.. if someone came here making claims game would tank in one month they were just trolling you guys

     No what you said, then your retraction, is highlighted in red. Changing your tune now does not change what you wrote before. When you call people out it would behoove you to check your facts.



    I would like to see who said the game would be dead in a month.  So I'll take mine roasted if you do not mind.  ^_^

  • sanosukexsanosukex Member Posts: 1,836

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


     

    Yet, that is your opinion.  I, and many others are enjoying the game, will resub, and will tell our friends our experiences in the game and why we enjoy it.  Just because you think a game is mediocre does not mean the game is actually mediocre.

     

    As to your "6-12 month" bar.... well, we've all seen these before.  The doom 'n gloomers first said "1 month"... and, when that didn't happen, now you are all saying "6 to 12 months".  And, if that doesn't happen, then you'll spout out "18 to 24 months". 

    It's a continual cycle that has been seen for countless MMORPGs that the doom 'n gloomers hate.

    doom and gloomers said months 3-6 not month 1 try again..

     

    and yes the game is mediocre sorry.. and yes its my opinion and shared by many others but if people can't see this game is mediocre I feel sad for the future of this genre..

     Some Doom and gloomers started claiming one month a week before launch. Then there was the "massive exodous" thread with claimed xfire support three weeks after launch. Of course there were scattered claims that the game would be free to play in a month etc. Trolls will say anything the more outrageous the better. People who know nothing but speak often are now moving from 2-3 months to 6-12 months. None of it has anything to do with facts.

    Exactly.  It's interesting that some of them forgot the 1 month claims.

    who made those claims? I know I sure as hell didn't and anyone who did was just trolling you guys

     Would you care to have your Crow poached or roasted?

    so what are you trying to say? I said most people who really beleive this game is going to fail said it would do so around month 3-6.. if someone came here making claims game would tank in one month they were just trolling you guys

     No what you said, then your retraction, is highlighted in red. Changing your tune now does not change what you wrote before. When you call people out it would behoove you to check your facts.

    where? please explain? the anyone who did was just trolling you guys was in response to It's interesting that some of them forgot the 1 month claims.  The doom and gloomers said months 3-6 not month 1 try again..  so how or where am I contradicting myself?  you are asuming everyone who is a doom and gloomer is a troll which is incorrect

  • sanosukexsanosukex Member Posts: 1,836

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

     

     You got it backwards. If even one of the trolls was a doom and gloomer, and I think a fairly easy case could be made that many of them are, you're wrong. As for which ones calling posters out by name on the forums is verboten. Do your own searching or ask a mod they've edited out dozens of them, some in this very thread. Plenty of people have seen them. You're just parsing words to avoid admitting you were wrong.

    lol this is why I post here stuff like this is more entertainment than anything swtor offers me.. either way i will rephrase if it makes you feel better..

    In my opinion people who have a good sense of MMOs and there history and have seen how games fail and when they do it can easily say this game is probably going to hit a wall around month 3 and start declining big time if some BIG changes do not come.

    People who came here on week one or two and said this game WILL fail at the end of month one were not stating facts or doing anything more than feeding the troll train and getting all the fanboys all worked up nothing more

     

    doesn't matter what yuo call them I call group one more legitimate doom and gloomers you may call them trolls doesn't matter either way.. but no way am i changing what I said or meant to say since you seem to be twisting my workds all over the place. Fact is many people still feel this game is going to fail for many reasons but most ones with actual reasons and not just one line "mass exodus" said it would happen after a couple months not after the first month plain and simple.

  • TealaTeala Member RarePosts: 7,627

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by sanosukex


    Originally posted by Vato26


     

    Yet, that is your opinion.  I, and many others are enjoying the game, will resub, and will tell our friends our experiences in the game and why we enjoy it.  Just because you think a game is mediocre does not mean the game is actually mediocre.

     

    As to your "6-12 month" bar.... well, we've all seen these before.  The doom 'n gloomers first said "1 month"... and, when that didn't happen, now you are all saying "6 to 12 months".  And, if that doesn't happen, then you'll spout out "18 to 24 months". 

    It's a continual cycle that has been seen for countless MMORPGs that the doom 'n gloomers hate.

    doom and gloomers said months 3-6 not month 1 try again..

     

    and yes the game is mediocre sorry.. and yes its my opinion and shared by many others but if people can't see this game is mediocre I feel sad for the future of this genre..

     Some Doom and gloomers started claiming one month a week before launch. Then there was the "massive exodous" thread with claimed xfire support three weeks after launch. Of course there were scattered claims that the game would be free to play in a month etc. Trolls will say anything the more outrageous the better. People who know nothing but speak often are now moving from 2-3 months to 6-12 months. None of it has anything to do with facts.

    Exactly.  It's interesting that some of them forgot the 1 month claims.

    who made those claims? I know I sure as hell didn't and anyone who did was just trolling you guys

     Would you care to have your Crow poached or roasted?

    so what are you trying to say? I said most people who really beleive this game is going to fail said it would do so around month 3-6.. if someone came here making claims game would tank in one month they were just trolling you guys

     No what you said, then your retraction, is highlighted in red. Changing your tune now does not change what you wrote before. When you call people out it would behoove you to check your facts.

    where? please explain? the anyone who did was just trolling you guys was in response to It's interesting that some of them forgot the 1 month claims.  The doom and gloomers said months 3-6 not month 1 try again..  so how or where am I contradicting myself?  you are asuming everyone who is a doom and gloomer is a troll which is incorrect

     You got it backwards. If even one of the trolls was a doom and gloomer, and I think a fairly easy case could be made that many of them are, you're wrong. As for which ones calling posters out by name on the forums is verboten. Do your own searching or ask a mod they've edited out dozens of them, some in this very thread. Plenty of people have seen them. You're just parsing words to avoid admitting you were wrong.

    You said you would point out where people have said the game would fail in a month - asked if we would take it poached or roasted.  I asked for roasted.    ^_^

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 4,990

    Even for this site this is really an odd argument over semantics, arbitrary time limits, and the future. I think the one about The Davinci Code, Ishtar and which director sucks more ass had a lot more to offer.

    Thanks a lot for squashing that D.

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • teoyaomiquiteoyaomiqui Member Posts: 98

    Originally posted by Vato26

    Originally posted by teoyaomiqui


    Originally posted by AG-Vuk

     You're correct in that it shows a trend , to a degree. A lot of what you say is valid as opinion . X-fire though as a statisical indicator is extremely poor and therefore higly subjective only because the sample size and population is not controlled. I always get a chuckle when I see these posts , because simply . Numbers are always open to manipulation and can be used to show anything one desires. Population drops are common in MMO's , I'd say a 20 to 30 % drop can be expected in a good game after release , more then 50 % and I suspect the game will have real problems. IMO. Without the release of sub numbers it's impossible to estimate the health of a game. I'd say it's pretty safe to say that the majority of games peak at release, there are always exceptions. The real bar is where they sit at the 6 mo , 1 year stage then 2y and 5 y benchmarks. ( for MMO's )

    I don't see how it is true for a great new MMO, but I agree that it is true for a medicore MMO.

    Example how I see medicore MMO subscribtion model works: I buy it, i think, well it's alright, I play it for a month, i drop it, tell friends, the game is alright, but nothing interesting.

    Example of how I see great new MMO would go: I buy it, i like it, i resub, I tell my friends, what a great game it is, they try it, sub numbers go up.

    But you are right on another topic, the real bar is at 6-12month, and with numbers dropping each week, i don't think they will break 12 month bar with positive balance.

     

    Yet, that is your opinion.  I, and many others are enjoying the game, will resub, and will tell our friends our experiences in the game and why we enjoy it.  Just because you think a game is mediocre does not mean the game is actually mediocre.

     

    As to your "6-12 month" bar.... well, we've all seen these before.  The doom 'n gloomers first said "1 month"... and, when that didn't happen, now you are all saying "6 to 12 months".  And, if that doesn't happen, then you'll spout out "18 to 24 months". 

    It's a continual cycle that has been seen for countless MMORPGs that the doom 'n gloomers hate.

    Let it be so, it is an opinion that the game is medicore. But you are saying that that you are enjoying the game nad tell your friends etc. so the game is growing? Am I wrong that it is not ok for a great mmo to drop in frist month? Are you saying that the game will drop even if people recommend it? Well if it is great, it should start growing at least at some point to hit it's highest point, so unless you consider first month for it to be the highest point, people tell us when will the growth happen?

  • PelaajaPelaaja Member Posts: 697

    Seems like we've got into the "I said, you said, he said".

    The game on the other hand is struggling to (according to XFire graph) get the high peak to the same level as it was on earlier week.

    It's down roughly 11,5k hours and if there's any predictability in it, 30th day is going to show a lowering trend.

    On short term, it seem like the bottom at the moment is around 40k hours. If it's going below on this week, I think we can assume XFire-crowd is going to abandon the title (or the XFire client doesn't credit played hours correctly, what ever floats your boat).

    image

  • IsturiIsturi Member Posts: 1,509

    LMAO just by the response by fans of TOR tells me that TOR did not peaked on XFire and I mean come on XFIRE lets get real who cares this should some up this thread nicely. TY

    image

  • Vato26Vato26 Member Posts: 3,930

    Originally posted by teoyaomiqui

    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by teoyaomiqui


    Originally posted by AG-Vuk

     You're correct in that it shows a trend , to a degree. A lot of what you say is valid as opinion . X-fire though as a statisical indicator is extremely poor and therefore higly subjective only because the sample size and population is not controlled. I always get a chuckle when I see these posts , because simply . Numbers are always open to manipulation and can be used to show anything one desires. Population drops are common in MMO's , I'd say a 20 to 30 % drop can be expected in a good game after release , more then 50 % and I suspect the game will have real problems. IMO. Without the release of sub numbers it's impossible to estimate the health of a game. I'd say it's pretty safe to say that the majority of games peak at release, there are always exceptions. The real bar is where they sit at the 6 mo , 1 year stage then 2y and 5 y benchmarks. ( for MMO's )

    I don't see how it is true for a great new MMO, but I agree that it is true for a medicore MMO.

    Example how I see medicore MMO subscribtion model works: I buy it, i think, well it's alright, I play it for a month, i drop it, tell friends, the game is alright, but nothing interesting.

    Example of how I see great new MMO would go: I buy it, i like it, i resub, I tell my friends, what a great game it is, they try it, sub numbers go up.

    But you are right on another topic, the real bar is at 6-12month, and with numbers dropping each week, i don't think they will break 12 month bar with positive balance.

     

    Yet, that is your opinion.  I, and many others are enjoying the game, will resub, and will tell our friends our experiences in the game and why we enjoy it.  Just because you think a game is mediocre does not mean the game is actually mediocre.

     

    As to your "6-12 month" bar.... well, we've all seen these before.  The doom 'n gloomers first said "1 month"... and, when that didn't happen, now you are all saying "6 to 12 months".  And, if that doesn't happen, then you'll spout out "18 to 24 months". 

    It's a continual cycle that has been seen for countless MMORPGs that the doom 'n gloomers hate.

    Let it be so, it is an opinion that the game is medicore. But you are saying that that you are enjoying the game nad tell your friends etc. so the game is growing? Am I wrong that it is not ok for a great mmo to drop in frist month? Are you saying that the game will drop even if people recommend it? Well if it is great, it should start growing at least at some point to hit it's highest point, so unless you consider first month for it to be the highest point, people tell us when will the growth happen?

    You really should stop assuming things and trying to put words into my mouth.

    Fact remains, you were stating your opinion that the game is mediocre and because you tell your friends that its mediocre that it makes it mediocre.  I refuted by stating that I am enjoying the game, will resub, and describing what I enjoyed about the game to my friends.  Thus, making your opinion really just your opinion rather than you trying to state it as a fact. 

    Now, you are trying to deflect it towards me by attempting to engage in Libel by trying to put words into my mouth.  That speaks volumes.

  • Vato26Vato26 Member Posts: 3,930

    Originally posted by Pelaaja

    Seems like we've got into the "I said, you said, he said".

    The game on the other hand is struggling to (according to XFire graph) get the high peak to the same level as it was on earlier week.

    It's down roughly 11,5k hours and if there's any predictability in it, 30th day is going to show a lowering trend.

    On short term, it seem like the bottom at the moment is around 40k hours. If it's going below on this week, I think we can assume XFire-crowd is going to abandon the title (or the XFire client doesn't credit played hours correctly, what ever floats your boat).

    Here's another person that is intentionally taking X-fire statistics outside their scope for his own self-serving agenda.

    Using statistics outside their scope invalidates the statistics.  Using invalid statistics makes that person's conclusions invalid.

     

    Oh... and 800... woot!

  • RocketeerRocketeer Member UncommonPosts: 1,303

    Originally posted by Vato26

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Steady decline going on, yesterday highest in the week, 8500 players and 48.650h, 10.400  less than last sunday.

    Only within X-fire.

    This sums about about your entire argument. If someone points at xfire and says "look at this, i think this shows xy" you ridicule him for his poor choice of source.

    However when its about your side of the argument, you just make a flatout claim without any kind of backup whatsoever.

    {mod edit}

  • TyvolusNextTyvolusNext Member Posts: 192

    Originally posted by Vato26

    Originally posted by Pelaaja

    Seems like we've got into the "I said, you said, he said".

    The game on the other hand is struggling to (according to XFire graph) get the high peak to the same level as it was on earlier week.

    It's down roughly 11,5k hours and if there's any predictability in it, 30th day is going to show a lowering trend.

    On short term, it seem like the bottom at the moment is around 40k hours. If it's going below on this week, I think we can assume XFire-crowd is going to abandon the title (or the XFire client doesn't credit played hours correctly, what ever floats your boat).

    Here's another person that is intentionally taking X-fire statistics outside their scope for his own self-serving agenda.

    Using statistics outside their scope invalidates the statistics.  Using invalid statistics makes that person's conclusions invalid.

     

    Oh... and 800... woot!

    that is nothing but conjecture on your part.

  • RocketeerRocketeer Member UncommonPosts: 1,303

    If you have a 800 reply strong thread going back and forth about wether a game is failing or not ... then its failing and you are just arguing with those that are still in denial because they don't want the game to fail. Just look at this forum, how many people speak up about it.

    You simply do not see this kind of threads on successful games that are posting a new concurrent user record every week or need to regularly increase the amount of servers. If this game where growing we would see new servers pop up, or we would notice that its getting more and more crowded on the fleets every week or somesuch. If this game is not growing then its either declining or going to be declining in a couple weeks/months when the competition steps up.

     Or is anyone arguing that the 90%+ drop in warhammer, AoC and STO that was shown on xfire is a fluke too?

    15. January(4 weeks old, well out of major vacation times) the game had 70k hours on saturday

    22. January the game had 59k hours on saturday

    29. January the game had 49k hours on saturday

     

    How many weeks do you think the game can bleed 10k hours per 7 days, with 70k to start with, until the xfire trend of it looks the exact same as Warhammer and AoC? Its going down faster than Aoin did, and that is a fact. Both started at 4th xfire rank(which are relattive, so a shrinking xfire community doesn't factor in), and the steady downward trend is not mirrored by any other current AAA mmo either.

     

    P.S.: Cryptic fixed their launcher not being logged by xfire, it can be seen very clearly here. It apparently when they implemented F2P earlier in the year, the launcher got a major overhaul and the game immediatly takes it proper place in the xfire ranking(sort by rank). Also we have a exactly known usercount from eve online that almost exactly mirrors the xfire one(relatively) showing a small increase for the last 30 days with a hanger in the middle, putting things somewhat into perspective.

  • sirphobossirphobos Member UncommonPosts: 620

    I think the most important question is: Why is this thread still going on?

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by Rocketeer
    If you have a 800 reply strong thread going back and forth about wether a game is failing or not ... then its failing and you are just arguing with those that are still in denial because they don't want the game to fail. Just look at this forum, how many people speak up about it.
    You simply do not see this kind of threads on successful games that are posting a new concurrent user record every week or need to regularly increase the amount of servers. If this game where growing we would see new servers pop up, or we would notice that its getting more and more crowded on the fleets every week or somesuch. If this game is not growing then its either declining or going to be declining in a couple weeks/months when the competition steps up.
     Or is anyone arguing that the 90%+ drop in warhammer, AoC and STO that was shown on xfire is a fluke too?
    15. January(4 weeks old, well out of major vacation times) the game had 70k hours on saturday
    22. January the game had 59k hours on saturday
    29. January the game had 49k hours on saturday
     
    How many weeks do you think the game can bleed 10k hours per 7 days, with 70k to start with, until the xfire trend of it looks the exact same as Warhammer and AoC? Its going down faster than Aoin did, and that is a fact. Both started at 4th xfire rank(which are relattive, so a shrinking xfire community doesn't factor in), and the steady downward trend is not mirrored by any other current AAA mmo either.
     
    P.S.: Cryptic fixed their launcher not being logged by xfire, it can be seen very clearly here. It apparently when they implemented F2P earlier in the year, the launcher got a major overhaul and the game immediatly takes it proper place in the xfire ranking(sort by rank). Also we have a exactly known usercount from eve online that almost exactly mirrors the xfire one(relatively) showing a small increase for the last 30 days with a hanger in the middle, putting things somewhat into perspective.


    At 3 hours played per day, that's about 476 people. Assuming the people play 5 days a week instead of 7, you're looking at 666 people lost per week. With 2 million boxes sold, they can go 1,500 weeks* before they lose half their people.

    That's 28 years.

    ** edit **
    You can't extrapolate anything useful from XFire or any of the other sites that have charts and graphs. You can say there's a downward trend in XFire users playing a game and that's it.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • kakasakikakasaki Member UncommonPosts: 1,205

    Originally posted by sirphobos

    I think the most important question is: Why is this thread still going on?

    image The more pages this thread grows, I loose more faith in humanity...

    A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true...

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by kakasaki

    Originally posted by sirphobos
    I think the most important question is: Why is this thread still going on?
     The more pages this thread grows, I loose more faith in humanity...



    *lose

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • kakasakikakasaki Member UncommonPosts: 1,205

    Originally posted by lizardbones

     




    Originally posted by kakasaki





    Originally posted by sirphobos

    I think the most important question is: Why is this thread still going on?






     The more pages this thread grows, I loose more faith in humanity...







    *lose

     

     

    ... and I just lost some more!

    A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true...

  • Vato26Vato26 Member Posts: 3,930

    Originally posted by TyvolusNext

    Originally posted by Vato26


    Originally posted by Pelaaja

    Seems like we've got into the "I said, you said, he said".

    The game on the other hand is struggling to (according to XFire graph) get the high peak to the same level as it was on earlier week.

    It's down roughly 11,5k hours and if there's any predictability in it, 30th day is going to show a lowering trend.

    On short term, it seem like the bottom at the moment is around 40k hours. If it's going below on this week, I think we can assume XFire-crowd is going to abandon the title (or the XFire client doesn't credit played hours correctly, what ever floats your boat).

    Here's another person that is intentionally taking X-fire statistics outside their scope for his own self-serving agenda.

    Using statistics outside their scope invalidates the statistics.  Using invalid statistics makes that person's conclusions invalid.

     

    Oh... and 800... woot!

    that is nothing but conjecture on your part.

    False.  The reality is that I am right.  Using X-fire outside of the X-fire userbase is outside its intended scope.  To take statistics outside the scope invalidates the statistics as there are no inherent controls in place to prevent extraneous variables that messes with what the scientists are wanting to measure.  That's taught in statistics 101.

  • Vato26Vato26 Member Posts: 3,930

    Originally posted by Rocketeer

    If you have a 800 reply strong thread going back and forth about wether a game is failing or not ... then its failing and you are just arguing with those that are still in denial because they don't want the game to fail. Just look at this forum, how many people speak up about it.

    You simply do not see this kind of threads on successful games that are posting a new concurrent user record every week or need to regularly increase the amount of servers. If this game where growing we would see new servers pop up, or we would notice that its getting more and more crowded on the fleets every week or somesuch. If this game is not growing then its either declining or going to be declining in a couple weeks/months when the competition steps up.

     Or is anyone arguing that the 90%+ drop in warhammer, AoC and STO that was shown on xfire is a fluke too?

    15. January(4 weeks old, well out of major vacation times) the game had 70k hours on saturday

    22. January the game had 59k hours on saturday

    29. January the game had 49k hours on saturday

     

    How many weeks do you think the game can bleed 10k hours per 7 days, with 70k to start with, until the xfire trend of it looks the exact same as Warhammer and AoC? Its going down faster than Aoin did, and that is a fact. Both started at 4th xfire rank(which are relattive, so a shrinking xfire community doesn't factor in), and the steady downward trend is not mirrored by any other current AAA mmo either.

     

    P.S.: Cryptic fixed their launcher not being logged by xfire, it can be seen very clearly here. It apparently when they implemented F2P earlier in the year, the launcher got a major overhaul and the game immediatly takes it proper place in the xfire ranking(sort by rank). Also we have a exactly known usercount from eve online that almost exactly mirrors the xfire one(relatively) showing a small increase for the last 30 days with a hanger in the middle, putting things somewhat into perspective.

    Flawed logic is flawed.  The only reason this thread has continued is because the pro X-fire squad is not open to hearing the truth that their beloved X-fire is only useful for statistics within the scope (the X-fire userbase).  Them and the anti-SWTOR brigrade are continuously trying to take these statistics outside their scope for their own self-serving agendas.  Which are, to try and perpetuate even more hate for SWTOR.

    We have refuted every point that the two groups have ever made in support of their usage of flawed statistics with actual statistical analysis proceedures and logic.  So, this thread should have died long ago.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910


    Originally posted by kakasaki

    Originally posted by lizardbones
     


    Originally posted by kakasaki



    Originally posted by sirphobos
    I think the most important question is: Why is this thread still going on?


     The more pages this thread grows, I loose more faith in humanity...





    *lose

     

     
    ... and I just lost some more!




    :-)

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • VrikaVrika Member LegendaryPosts: 7,888

    Originally posted by lizardbones

     




    Originally posted by Rocketeer

    If you have a 800 reply strong thread going back and forth about wether a game is failing or not ... then its failing and you are just arguing with those that are still in denial because they don't want the game to fail. Just look at this forum, how many people speak up about it.

    You simply do not see this kind of threads on successful games that are posting a new concurrent user record every week or need to regularly increase the amount of servers. If this game where growing we would see new servers pop up, or we would notice that its getting more and more crowded on the fleets every week or somesuch. If this game is not growing then its either declining or going to be declining in a couple weeks/months when the competition steps up.

     Or is anyone arguing that the 90%+ drop in warhammer, AoC and STO that was shown on xfire is a fluke too?

    15. January(4 weeks old, well out of major vacation times) the game had 70k hours on saturday

    22. January the game had 59k hours on saturday

    29. January the game had 49k hours on saturday

     

    How many weeks do you think the game can bleed 10k hours per 7 days, with 70k to start with, until the xfire trend of it looks the exact same as Warhammer and AoC? Its going down faster than Aoin did, and that is a fact. Both started at 4th xfire rank(which are relattive, so a shrinking xfire community doesn't factor in), and the steady downward trend is not mirrored by any other current AAA mmo either.

     

    P.S.: Cryptic fixed their launcher not being logged by xfire, it can be seen very clearly here. It apparently when they implemented F2P earlier in the year, the launcher got a major overhaul and the game immediatly takes it proper place in the xfire ranking(sort by rank). Also we have a exactly known usercount from eve online that almost exactly mirrors the xfire one(relatively) showing a small increase for the last 30 days with a hanger in the middle, putting things somewhat into perspective.








    At 3 hours played per day, that's about 476 people. Assuming the people play 5 days a week instead of 7, you're looking at 666 people lost per week. With 2 million boxes sold, they can go 1,500 weeks* before they lose half their people.



    That's 28 years.



    ** edit **

    You can't extrapolate anything useful from XFire or any of the other sites that have charts and graphs. You can say there's a downward trend in XFire users playing a game and that's it.

     

    Lizardbones no-one is even trying to do that.

    We are taking a subset of SWTOR playing population, namely those who play SWTOR and use XFire. Then assume that that subset is representative of whole SWTOR playerbase. Thus if numbers recorded by XFire drop by 50%, we'll assume that SWTOR usage has dropped by 50%. That way they can lose half of their playerbase in just a few weeks.

    This requires some assumptions

    1) Assuming that XFire population stays constant

    2) Assuming that XFire users who play SWTOR are representative of all SWTOR players.

    Assumption 1 doesn't have so large problems, I don't see XFire userbase changing radically in just a few weeks..

    Assumption 2 requires a leap of faith, and all results gained from monitoring XFire will have large margin of error. But XFire population has previously shown accurately the population trends of other big MMORPGs, and it's common sense that XFire users who play SWTOR are just human like all other SWTOR players, and not radically different from all other SWTOR players. Which makes assumption 2 reasonable in lack of better ways to estimate popularity of SWTOR. As long as the person admits that it's uncertain how large the margin of error is, and that it's likely large.

     
This discussion has been closed.