Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...
What a question.. Will it be successful... Man, it will be HUGE. Basically everything that has 'Star Wars' on it sells. Example: just stamp it on toilet paper and poof sales go through the roof.
I've preordered the CE and am sure that I'm gonna sink many, many hours in this game
Bioware and ea has stated that 500k subs makes this game profitible it will do as well if not better then rift which has 1 mil subs still last i knew.
So this game will be a success by bioware standars as well. They dont expect 11 mil subs . NO one does thats a once in a lifetime phenomenom.
That said i dont see why so many people are convinced a game with over 200 hrs of gameplay in class story alone per class isnt gonna keep players.
Most players i know wanna play multiple classes. So thats more hrs of class story multiplied throw in dungeons and pvp and other stuff as u level to max level and biowares story and this game will keep more then some think
It may not be revoloutinary in combat or ui but its story elements wil hook and keep more players then those saying it will only keep 300- 400k subs think.
Ive read enough reviews that state u cant underestiimate the power of bioware's story its a huge diffrence in gameing and makes them long for when tor comes out so they can quit the mmo they have played up to now.
So dont underestimate the story aspects in this game and what it brings to the genre with the full voiced vo and the companions and the choices that affect your character. Those things alone will keep more playersw playing and re rolling alts then any of those who think bioware will bleed subs is giveing them credit for.
From a financial point of view, I've run some #'s using a 20% IRR requirement (using the estimated $100mm development cost spread over 5 years), a 35% tax rate and assuming they can retain 85% of the players who buy the box in year 1 and 70% of players a year after that, and that gross margins on revenues are 80% initially and move up to 95% rather quickly as player and development support dwindles over the years. I estimate that the company needs to sell roughly 750,000 boxes and have 635,000 subs in year 1, sell about 10,000 more boxes in year 2 and 2000 more in year 3 in order to hit their hurdle rate of 20% return over the next 10 years. Anything short of 700,000 box sales and 75% player retention, and this game will fail to deliver the required returns from a financial point of view.
I should mention that I worked on wall street and am very familiar with these financial calculations, I'm not some random dude spewing #'s out his butt. Feel free to flame, but I assure you that my understanding of finance and accounting exceeds yours.
All that said, I think they'll probably sell more than 750,000 boxes (probably sell twice as many), but I have serious doubts about player retention assumptions given that this game is very story based.
You don't think it will be a standard MMo, with an added layer of story, that changes the way questing is handled in MMO's?
No.
I think the way Bioware is handling story is nice - it's better... but not THAT much better - and probably not anywhere near worth the effort Bioware has put into it.
I would've preferred Bioware put more effort into making a complete game than just having every Tom, Dick and Harry questgiver have 5 minutes of dialogue before they tell me to do the same thing questgivers do in every MMO.
I would've preferred Bioware put more effort into making a complete game than just having every Tom, Dick and Harry questgiver have 5 minutes of dialogue before they tell me to do the same thing questgivers do in every MMO.
I don't know how informed you are or not, but SWTOR is as complete a game as games like WoW, LotrO and so on were.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
i think it's too early to tell considering it's not out yet, The numbers so far look good and what i've heard from beta players is on the positive side. My interest will be in what the new games like this one will cause players of future and existing other games
devs to have to follow as standard features. For example, Rift: random/community events...aoe looting, SWTOR: npc gathering for crafts, Torchlight II: npc to town to sell unwanted items, GW2: changing homelands/housing according to life events of player characters.
How will games like World of Warcraft, Lord of the Rings etc survive without these features seen in other games that will one day become standard features rather then new ones?
I would've preferred Bioware put more effort into making a complete game than just having every Tom, Dick and Harry questgiver have 5 minutes of dialogue before they tell me to do the same thing questgivers do in every MMO.
I don't know how informed you are or not, but SWTOR is as complete a game as games like WoW, LotrO and so on were.
I am on the fence really. I won't be playing, as I have never particularly liked SW universe (sorry ).
As far as I have seen from the footage relased, I think it will perform like Rift. A lot of atention in the early stages, and little after a few months.
i think it's too early to tell considering it's not out yet, The numbers so far look good and what i've heard from beta players is on the positive side. My interest will be in what the new games like this one will cause players of future and existing other games
devs to have to follow as standard features. For example, Rift: random/community events...aoe looting, SWTOR: npc gathering for crafts, Torchlight II: npc to town to sell unwanted items, GW2: changing homelands/housing according to life events of player characters.
How will games like World of Warcraft, Lord of the Rings etc survive without these features seen in other games that will one day become standard features rather then new ones?
A little off-topic, but something I talk about with friends.
I think there is a difference between quality features and quality gameplay.
For instance - I'd consider a lot of features like AOE looting, greater appearance customization, NPCs selling loot in towns, etc. to be nice things. The better ones will probably be adopted by future games - but I don't consider any of them essential to keeping an audience.
On the other hand - RIFT's dymanic events (or pseudo-dynamic, depending on how you look at it) with the rifts spawning, the npcs marching around attacking things. THAT feels like an innovation in gameplay - maybe not the biggest one you could ever imagine... but certainly a few steps beyond "rare boss spawn" and more than some of the stuff some MMOs have with npcs of various factions "fighting" each other in certain zones.
So for the stuff I call features... despite the outcry you'll see on forums about them.... I don't think they really matter all that much - especially individually.
For the gameplay innovations... I do think that games lacking these will begin to appear more and more obsolete - even if they are chock full of the latest features.
Bioware thinks their approach to story is an innovation. I think it is more of a feature.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Honestly, I don't know how this could not be a success. Even the first 3 episodes were a success, and they were pretty bad overall. It's Star Wars. That's like a golden ticket. No matter what state it's in, you'll have a dedicated [huge] Star Wars fanbase determined to enjoy it for what it is.
As far as it being a success outside of Star Wars fans, I don't know. It's going to have it's negatives as with all things, and I think the hype is already setting it up for failure for a lot of people. I'm somewhere in the middle. I'm looking forward to it, but might not play past the first month if it doesn't compete with my enjoyment of Aion. Nothing else is competing with it right now, so SWTOR needs to be one hell of a fun, engaging MMO to win me over in the long term.
I'll be happier if I can get in to the beta because at least I can give feedback on how it looks and hopefully make it in to a better game from my perspective. I hope everyone that gets in to beta takes this approach. Don't just get in, take a look at it's current state, and say 'this game sucks'. Put it in a specific feedback report about what you didn't like and why so it can be a better game for all of us. It's not done yet so any negatives we see at this point could change, and we play a part in that.
I expect a huge success. Multimillion and possibly challenging WoW. SW:TOR has everything that could lead to such a success - the good name of the company, the good name of the license, the calmness and throughoutness of the development (Its done when its done), and the originality of the concept.
But ...
... sadly I'm much less optimistic if *I* will like this game.
Yeah story content should be great, like always with Bioware.
But the rest ... the classes look too random for me. The rulesystem is simply very weird, with the ability to change from dd to either tank or healer, for many classes. I would rather want to focus on one class and really learn it than to do such drastic changes. A little flexibility is apprechiated, as is the ability to change your skilling, but a total change ? Not really what I'm going for.
And the classes ... I dont like rogue like classes, I dont like ranged classes, I dont like the idea of heavy armor guy with two weapons, I consider saberstaff a stupid idea, and I have no motivation to play a class thats conceptionally supposed to be "evil" ... so yeah, that only leaves Jedi Sage and Jedi Guardian.
Compare that to Vanguard: I dont like Rogue, Ranger, and Druid. The rest are OK. So yeah, I can fill every single slot of my account with a class I like (there are 15 classes total and you get 12 slots per account).
You don't think it will be a standard MMo, with an added layer of story, that changes the way questing is handled in MMO's?
No.
I think the way Bioware is handling story is nice - it's better... but not THAT much better - and probably not anywhere near worth the effort Bioware has put into it.
I would've preferred Bioware put more effort into making a complete game than just having every Tom, Dick and Harry questgiver have 5 minutes of dialogue before they tell me to do the same thing questgivers do in every MMO.
Then you meant to say yes? I said nothing of it being better just that it's different. My point is it seems from many sources that the game hits the strides it was trying to hit.
To SB fans, please stop making our demographic look bad.Stop invading threads that have nothing to do with sandboxes.
Comments
Well Everquest is still around, so if by succeding you mean "will still be around in 10 years" then yeah.
I won't play it, I don't think it will be as great as people are making it out to be either, but it should still be around.
1) Tor will sell a shit ton of boxes.
2) Tor might bleed subs in the long run.
3) Will Tor be a success...yes.
Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...
Depends on what your definition of success is. I think the game will have a decent playerbase and will be around for a few years.
Will it be the MMO that ends all other MMO's... no.
As long as it is making money for the people who made the game I would consider it a success.
What a question.. Will it be successful... Man, it will be HUGE. Basically everything that has 'Star Wars' on it sells. Example: just stamp it on toilet paper and poof sales go through the roof.
I've preordered the CE and am sure that I'm gonna sink many, many hours in this game
commercially? hell yea
fulfilling bioware's hype? nope, no way.
Absolutely! It is going to be a huge success.
I predict In subs it will be the #2 MMO by Feb 2012......Possibly #1.
TOR will also flatten GW2
You don't think it will be a standard MMo, with an added layer of story, that changes the way questing is handled in MMO's?
To SB fans, please stop making our demographic look bad.Stop invading threads that have nothing to do with sandboxes.
SW:TOR Graphics Evolution and Comparison
SW:TOR Compare MMO Quests, Combat and More...
Bioware and ea has stated that 500k subs makes this game profitible it will do as well if not better then rift which has 1 mil subs still last i knew.
So this game will be a success by bioware standars as well. They dont expect 11 mil subs . NO one does thats a once in a lifetime phenomenom.
That said i dont see why so many people are convinced a game with over 200 hrs of gameplay in class story alone per class isnt gonna keep players.
Most players i know wanna play multiple classes. So thats more hrs of class story multiplied throw in dungeons and pvp and other stuff as u level to max level and biowares story and this game will keep more then some think
It may not be revoloutinary in combat or ui but its story elements wil hook and keep more players then those saying it will only keep 300- 400k subs think.
Ive read enough reviews that state u cant underestiimate the power of bioware's story its a huge diffrence in gameing and makes them long for when tor comes out so they can quit the mmo they have played up to now.
So dont underestimate the story aspects in this game and what it brings to the genre with the full voiced vo and the companions and the choices that affect your character. Those things alone will keep more playersw playing and re rolling alts then any of those who think bioware will bleed subs is giveing them credit for.
No
obvious question is obvious:
whay do you mean by "succeeding"?
From a financial point of view, I've run some #'s using a 20% IRR requirement (using the estimated $100mm development cost spread over 5 years), a 35% tax rate and assuming they can retain 85% of the players who buy the box in year 1 and 70% of players a year after that, and that gross margins on revenues are 80% initially and move up to 95% rather quickly as player and development support dwindles over the years. I estimate that the company needs to sell roughly 750,000 boxes and have 635,000 subs in year 1, sell about 10,000 more boxes in year 2 and 2000 more in year 3 in order to hit their hurdle rate of 20% return over the next 10 years. Anything short of 700,000 box sales and 75% player retention, and this game will fail to deliver the required returns from a financial point of view.
I should mention that I worked on wall street and am very familiar with these financial calculations, I'm not some random dude spewing #'s out his butt. Feel free to flame, but I assure you that my understanding of finance and accounting exceeds yours.
All that said, I think they'll probably sell more than 750,000 boxes (probably sell twice as many), but I have serious doubts about player retention assumptions given that this game is very story based.
No.
I think the way Bioware is handling story is nice - it's better... but not THAT much better - and probably not anywhere near worth the effort Bioware has put into it.
I would've preferred Bioware put more effort into making a complete game than just having every Tom, Dick and Harry questgiver have 5 minutes of dialogue before they tell me to do the same thing questgivers do in every MMO.
I don't know how informed you are or not, but SWTOR is as complete a game as games like WoW, LotrO and so on were.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
i think it's too early to tell considering it's not out yet, The numbers so far look good and what i've heard from beta players is on the positive side. My interest will be in what the new games like this one will cause players of future and existing other games
devs to have to follow as standard features. For example, Rift: random/community events...aoe looting, SWTOR: npc gathering for crafts, Torchlight II: npc to town to sell unwanted items, GW2: changing homelands/housing according to life events of player characters.
How will games like World of Warcraft, Lord of the Rings etc survive without these features seen in other games that will one day become standard features rather then new ones?
Maybe "complete" isn't the right word.
Instead, I'll go with "better."
I am on the fence really. I won't be playing, as I have never particularly liked SW universe (sorry
).
As far as I have seen from the footage relased, I think it will perform like Rift. A lot of atention in the early stages, and little after a few months.
A little off-topic, but something I talk about with friends.
I think there is a difference between quality features and quality gameplay.
For instance - I'd consider a lot of features like AOE looting, greater appearance customization, NPCs selling loot in towns, etc. to be nice things. The better ones will probably be adopted by future games - but I don't consider any of them essential to keeping an audience.
On the other hand - RIFT's dymanic events (or pseudo-dynamic, depending on how you look at it) with the rifts spawning, the npcs marching around attacking things. THAT feels like an innovation in gameplay - maybe not the biggest one you could ever imagine... but certainly a few steps beyond "rare boss spawn" and more than some of the stuff some MMOs have with npcs of various factions "fighting" each other in certain zones.
So for the stuff I call features... despite the outcry you'll see on forums about them.... I don't think they really matter all that much - especially individually.
For the gameplay innovations... I do think that games lacking these will begin to appear more and more obsolete - even if they are chock full of the latest features.
Bioware thinks their approach to story is an innovation. I think it is more of a feature.
I think this completely depends on how important someone considers questing to their gaming enjoyment.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I'm not going to even buy this game and I say it will do great.
My theme song.
I want to see it suceed, but when I see EA is involved I'm not getting my hopes up much...
"Happiness is not a destination. It is a method of life."
-------------------------------
I am hoping it does well, Not sure if I will be playing it yet but the more choices we hvae game wise is a good thing.
Honestly, I don't know how this could not be a success. Even the first 3 episodes were a success, and they were pretty bad overall. It's Star Wars. That's like a golden ticket. No matter what state it's in, you'll have a dedicated [huge] Star Wars fanbase determined to enjoy it for what it is.
As far as it being a success outside of Star Wars fans, I don't know. It's going to have it's negatives as with all things, and I think the hype is already setting it up for failure for a lot of people. I'm somewhere in the middle. I'm looking forward to it, but might not play past the first month if it doesn't compete with my enjoyment of Aion. Nothing else is competing with it right now, so SWTOR needs to be one hell of a fun, engaging MMO to win me over in the long term.
I'll be happier if I can get in to the beta because at least I can give feedback on how it looks and hopefully make it in to a better game from my perspective. I hope everyone that gets in to beta takes this approach. Don't just get in, take a look at it's current state, and say 'this game sucks'. Put it in a specific feedback report about what you didn't like and why so it can be a better game for all of us. It's not done yet so any negatives we see at this point could change, and we play a part in that.
I expect a huge success. Multimillion and possibly challenging WoW. SW:TOR has everything that could lead to such a success - the good name of the company, the good name of the license, the calmness and throughoutness of the development (Its done when its done), and the originality of the concept.
But ...
... sadly I'm much less optimistic if *I* will like this game.
Yeah story content should be great, like always with Bioware.
But the rest ... the classes look too random for me. The rulesystem is simply very weird, with the ability to change from dd to either tank or healer, for many classes. I would rather want to focus on one class and really learn it than to do such drastic changes. A little flexibility is apprechiated, as is the ability to change your skilling, but a total change ? Not really what I'm going for.
And the classes ... I dont like rogue like classes, I dont like ranged classes, I dont like the idea of heavy armor guy with two weapons, I consider saberstaff a stupid idea, and I have no motivation to play a class thats conceptionally supposed to be "evil" ... so yeah, that only leaves Jedi Sage and Jedi Guardian.
Compare that to Vanguard: I dont like Rogue, Ranger, and Druid. The rest are OK. So yeah, I can fill every single slot of my account with a class I like (there are 15 classes total and you get 12 slots per account).
Then you meant to say yes? I said nothing of it being better just that it's different. My point is it seems from many sources that the game hits the strides it was trying to hit.
To SB fans, please stop making our demographic look bad.Stop invading threads that have nothing to do with sandboxes.
SW:TOR Graphics Evolution and Comparison
SW:TOR Compare MMO Quests, Combat and More...