Guild Wars 2 is not going to come out of the gate and in the first year have a larger player base than World of Warcraft. It just isn't going to happen.
Who says?
It's quite possible that GW2 can be such a success that people switch. I'm not basing this on any major source of information, just what I read on forums, but i think a lot of people hang around in WoW because there's little decent competition. Games start off great and people leave WoW, then the games turn out to be mismanaged, or simply not that good, and people flock back to WoW.
Take Warhammer. When that game released there was a very nice population and people moved over from WoW looking for something new. A month later they went back to WoW. Now if WAR had been better managed maybe they might have stayed.
I believe people are looking for new. WoW is convenient and friendly. People have friends in WoW and know the game. They'll move for something that hits all the right buttons though. Nothing really has yet...not since WoW. 2012 is likely to bring the biggest change to the MMO genre for many a year.
If GW2 releases early in 2012 then it has enough time to inflict a serious dent in WoW's numbers.
Besides, I feel it foolish to base success on numbers alone. Quality and reviews are equally important. If GW2 gains a large population at release, and keeps it, I would call that a measure of success.
1 goes to WoW. When WoW is circlign the drain you still pay homageto the dying god. WoW wont be king with half the subscribers gone because it will have fallen into obscurity and the throne will lay empty and unfilled.
DEATH TO THE KING! FREE THE MMOS! DEATH TO THE KING!
Truth is Blizzard can't keep WoW relevent. The ship is sinking and all Blizzard can do is keep it afloat for a few more minutes while the players abbandon it for better deals.
It is best for the industry the MMO throne remains an dusty empty seat never to be filled.
The secret world is going to be a sleeper hit, mark my words...
You can't believe any game hype coming out of Funcom. Just look at the hype and what was promissed about AoC and what you ended up getting. It might turn out okay, but there is really no point in listening to the company's executives or watching game previews, since what actually makes it into the game could be completely different.
LoL, what Hype are you talking about? they revealed almost nothing about the game, there is almost no hype, there are more people like you that unhype the secret world than people hyping it...
I think most fans knew Cryptic didn't have it in them to create a good MMO once we saw how bad CO was. For Cryptic to still be in business after two massive flops is amazing to me.
I was actually shocked at how bad FF14 was recieved. I'm not surprised it didn't live up to hype, because no game has done that in quite a long time. I'm just shocked that it had zero redeeming qualities for such a huge title. At least in WAR, the scenarios were fun.
Will GW2 live up to its hype? I don't know. I've already pretty much given up on MMOs ever being as grand as they were back in 99-2003. Solo player games have far surpassed MMOs in depth at this point, which was not the case at the turn of the century.
I think most fans knew Cryptic didn't have it in them to create a good MMO once we saw how bad CO was. For Cryptic to still be in business after two massive flops is amazing to me.
I was actually shocked at how bad FF14 was recieved. I'm not surprised it didn't live up to hype, because no game has done that in quite a long time. I'm just shocked that it had zero redeeming qualities for such a huge title. At least in WAR, the scenarios were fun.
Will GW2 live up to its hype? I don't know. I've already pretty much given up on MMOs ever being as grand as they were back in 99-2003. Solo player games have far surpassed MMOs in depth at this point, which was not the case at the turn of the century.
Actually solo player games simulate the depth of a MMO, since they are made for just one player it is easy to itemize and plot player growth without concern for any outside elements such as other players.
To me most single player games, even Morrowind and Oblivion seem hollow after MMO's.
Even once you win the game or get that awesome item, there is no one around to see it or even say Grats.
Have a sense of humor, no need to get ALL MODDY ! A Simpson's quote shouldn't be worth a warning. You are lucky anyone is bothering to read this rag.
If GW2 releases early in 2012 then it has enough time to inflict a serious dent in WoW's numbers.
Besides, I feel it foolish to base success on numbers alone. Quality and reviews are equally important. If GW2 gains a large population at release, and keeps it, I would call that a measure of success.
Why would it? GW2 is no sub so, purely from a budgeting perspective, people will likely play both games. There's no reason to think that someone who enjoys playing WoW and enjoys playing GW2 will stop paying for WoW.
I think SWTOR will dominate market for long time and WOW will stay 5-6 years more in top. GW2 will have same destiny as RIFT after big hype. I really wish more for GW2 because i will buy it, but this MMORPG hype is not real picture of market. Just remember RIFT. Everyone was so excited and people was chating in RIFT how WOW will lose all subscribers . I think that classic fantasy world have nothing more to offer and nothing can compare with huge SW worlds. Imagine only WOW with new graphic as it is in GW2, HUUUUHH. He would stay king for more 10 years
Are you kidding me? I'm not a fanboy of GW2 but saying that SWTOR will kingpin GW2 because GW2 is WoW with new graphics? Quite the opposite, ol' chap.
Wow is going to stay on top for at least the next year or 2 due to its massive player base. Even if they lost half each year, they'd still be the bigggest for a while.
GW2 has a lot of promise, but even if its a great sucess, its going to take a while to build market share, so I'd be suprised to see it make even #2 in its first year.
Eve has been steadily growing each year, but is limited to combat in space, which doesn't appeal to many. I can't see it reaching more than #5.
LOTRO is doing very well and has a new expansion to release very soon. I'd expect to see it in the top 5 next year. Its main weakness is limited PvP (which I don't care about).
EQ2 could have had a big revival if it had handled EQ2x better. SOE got too greedy and overly restricted the F2P. Look at LOTRO for the proper way to handle it.
Aion and STO are in decline and their only hope to be in next year's top 10 are with a good F2P option. Even then, I think STO has been too much of a disappointment to recover.
It's funny how many of the "sure win" games have turned into major flops.
Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security. I don't Forum PVP. If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident. When I don't understand, I ask. Such is not intended as criticism.
my question is does anyone actually CARE what game some guy thinks is the best?played wow it sucked for me.ie i would not put it #1nor even in the top 10.but that is MY opinion just like he has HIS,and i for one think mine is more revelant to me than HIS.
of his top 10 ,ive played 3 that i can thnk of.now i wander if you had the top 10 list of paid advertisers and compared it to his list i wander how close it would match.
SWTOR and GWII, are both building way to much hype. there will be droves of players upset with those two games.
They build the hype because it sells more boxes. more boxes = more money. Im just going to go to sams club and buy popcorn in bulk because there will be endless entertainment reading the forums on release, itll be better than any movie, and last months.
Waiting for:EQ-Next, ArcheAge (not so much anymore) Now Playing: N/A Worst MMO: FFXIV Favorite MMO: FFXI
The secret world is going to be a sleeper hit, mark my words...
More likely just a sleeper. Chance of loud snoring from its small playerbase likely to be heard.
-Letting Derek Smart work on your game is like letting Osama bin Laden work in the White House. Something will burn.- -And on the 8th day, man created God.-
About GW2, you can't live up to that hype... afterall, its still an MMO and not a holy grail.
Nevertheless, it will be the best MMO released since 2004... without any doubt.
Actually, I have my doubts.
For a start it has some serious competition from one game alone, Lord of the Rings Online, as the best MMO since 2004.
Then you have the two games that will be released either this year or next, Star Wars: The Old Republic and The Secret World. Both seem amazing.
And because of the two MMO's mentioned above you can't say Guild Wars 2 will be better "without a doubt" because 1.) those two will be released before Guild Wars 2, and 2.) you haven't played it only saw videos. (I saw videos for Warhammer, Aion, Age of Conan and Cataclysm and thought they were the best thing since sliced bread, oh how wrong I was for thinking that... I can see myself in you sadly.)
The only "without a doubt" is that Star Wars will be a success, I'm unsure if Guild Wars 2 or the Secret World will be a success yet, but Star Wars is already a given based on preorders
Btw, I'm not a Star Wars fanboy or nothing, I just hate the crap it gets on this website, and I feel I must defend (Yes mainly because I preordered, and if it is bad I will be severely dissapointed haha.)
The fact so many flops made the list should tell you the MMO industry is not a healthy one and frankly i hope they get the message we are not supporting the crap you put out and call games. We are smarter than the hampsters on the wheels you treat us as , and if you enjoy loosing money keep it up
I personally don't think GW2 will be more popular than WoW. Nearly all MMO players just seem to like skipping the quest script and just raid and stuff, they don't give a crap about the story or anything and that's what GW2 is all about.
I personally am looking forward to GW2, Blade and Soul and it's free counterpart Age of Wulin.
I have no doubt that Guild Wars 2 will be popular at launch. I have my doubts about how popular it will be a year after launch. Looking at how NCSoft miss-handled the Aion launch, I can see the launch of Guild Wars 2 being totally mis-handled. As many of us have seen over the years, a bad launch can really hurt a game in the end.
As for Guild Wars 1, I love it. I actually like many of it's features including instancing, limited skill bar, and arena based PvP (the way it should be as I see it). I don't see the lack of jumping as enough of an issue to be bothered with. I consider the lack of open-PvP to be a very nice feature. I wish they had chosen to continue making new chapters.
That is an actual possibility, as in the GW2 player base falling off a bit after launch. I doubt it considering they did pretty fair with GW1.
But thats the thing. Even if they do loose players, those players have already bought the game. See its one thing for a game like Aion which charges a sub fee to go ahead and sort of fail and loose players. But not GW2. Because its buy and play. So if the game needs improvement, and they do the improving? Guess who comes back and gives it a go? Everyone. Thats who. I mean, why not?
But a game that has failed to impress me originally making improvements its a bit different. Because while Ive heard they've improved, it still requires me to dish out more money to see said improvements. And since Ive already got that bad taste in my mouth Im likely to not bother.
Guild Wars 1, Campaign 4 (and beyond) -- had it ever been completed and released -- would have been a contender for the top 10, imo. The game was (and still is) enormously popular. It's a pity that ArenaNet discontinued it in favor of developing a more conventional sort of MMO (GW2).
Oh, I believe GW2 will be good, but I still think that the fundamental concepts and structure of GW1 had a lot of life left to them (I, for one, loved GW1's heavy instancing, skill system, low level cap, henchman/Heroes, etc.).
Hopefully, some other developer will recognize that potential and pick up the ball that ArenaNet has dropped. Too many of the MMOs currenly out there and/or now in development look very same-ish to me. GW1 was truly in a class by itself.
I agree with you. I'm one of the few that actually enjoys (and sometimes I think, understands) instancing. It solves the problem of never being over crowded. However, with a dynamic event actually replacing quests rather than being a cheap add on that just repeats its self every 5 minutes (champions online), I think that will solve the crowding problem since people being around you will help rather than restrict.
As for super hero MMOs, City of Heroes will always be number 1 until CoH2. I though DCUO might give it a run for its money with it coming to the ps3, but I should have known better. Its just another MMO riding on its name/brand. I honestly think thats something The Old Republic will do, because of everything they've shown so far. However, unlike DCUO, I think more people will play it and it'll be successful because from what I can tell, Star Wars geeks are more hardcore that DC fans, not to mention ToR will probably have enough content.
1. WoW. there is absolutely, positively zero chance that a year form now WoW isnt still tops on the market. Its just not happening. Over half the remaing people would have to leave AND SWToR would have to shatter expectations
2. SWToR. If it stays for 2013 remains to be seen
3. GW2. See above. But both these games will do well enough initially. Since GW2 doesnt really have subs it will be tough to fully guage though. It surely will exceed 500k box sales which puts in pretty easily in third
4. EvE. For the first time I am seeing negativity about EvE lately. Maybe enough to stagnate its growth or even take away some players? At first i thought to put Rift in here but GW2 and SWToR will decimate the current population since theyll appeal to the same audience. EvE is unique and wont face the same exodus
5. Rift. A lot of people love the game. trion has been quick with raid content and events, but not so quick with fleshing the game out and its balance remains shaky as does its PvP. Its retention rate is by far the lower than any hit MMOs have been, but they are doing a decent job with acquisitions. If they can get it right it will do well. i see it settling in after the dust from the big two releases has settled at 250k or so
After this there is a big drop off and a lot of uncertainty with sub numbers. none of these games is going to be over the 200k mark unless you count Lotro's f2pers, which I am not.
6. Age of Conan. I cant believe Im saying this, but this title actually seems to be picking up steam after its horrible start. its different enough from the competition, and the Conan brand will be fresh in people's minds.
7. Its really tough to call. Im going to say Everquest 2 here just because tis the most stable of the older games and the other new games are going to be hit or miss. Tera will flop, the secret world ill discuss later, and archeage will need more time to release or else it will suffer. Meanwhile, EQ2 will be adding a very popular class and intriguing create your own dungeon concept. SoE seems to be willing to think outside the box a little and that just may push it over the edge of the crap heap down below.
8. The Secret World. the toughest game on the list to place. Somewhat reputable company, sandbox type progression, unique setting....but thaat 'unique' setting is modern. I just dont think the draw is there. Fantasy and Sci Fi both allow endless possibilities, setting it in modern times can restrict it. Still if done right it could be a hit, but it wont be a hit at release. Which may or may not be in 2012
9. LOTRO. The f2pers will move on to other games that will go f2p instead of subbing. Id be highly doubtful lotro has more than 150k subs as it is, and its getting stale. I predict this one to fall a bit in 2012.
10. Aion. No one really cares about it in US, but then theres not much else to really consider. FFXIV wont gain enough momentum to put it here, and EQ1 is starting to wind down.
8. The Secret World. the toughest game on the list to place. Somewhat reputable company, sandbox type progression, unique setting....but thaat 'unique' setting is modern. I just dont think the draw is there. Fantasy and Sci Fi both allow endless possibilities, setting it in modern times can restrict it. Still if done right it could be a hit, but it wont be a hit at release. Which may or may not be in 2012
If it's being made by Funcom the chances are it won't even be on the list. Also, Age of Conan? Right...
FFXIV will be around number 5 if not 4 in 2012. It was a failure at launch but the changes they have made so far are massive and we still have 2 massive patches before we even get to see the world change from it's original state. By 2012 this game will be the success it was meant to be especially if the PS3 version drops Q4 2011 or Q1 2012.
Completely disagree with WoW being anywhere close to the top ten, here's a few "why"s
1. it doesn't matter the number of people you have subbed because in the end it's how fun your game is, just because people try to stay together with their familiar clicks of friends does in no way make a game great and right now that is lterally the only GLUE holding WoW together.
2. When cata was released it was fresh content but since then it's been one repeat of content after another, same models, same bosses, etc etc. no new profession recipes for the standard professions (including my personal favorite that Ghostcrawler went out of his way to kill dead, Engineering), constantly having to relearn the class due to pvp balancing every couple of weeks, faction rep grinding for hardly anything good items, impersonal dungeon finder, complete nerfing of healers to the point there AREN'T any anymore, all contributed to WoW's loss of my account permanently.
3. Most likely what will happen is the Marine Biologist they put in charge along with his Goblin buddies won't see the writing on the wall and will continue to churn out the same old junk and expect the community to just swallow it and keep playing like nothing happened. I hope and pray that the coming of GW2, SWTOR, and a few other choice models will bump WoW's numbers so low that it slaps Ghostcrawler right out of his OCD chair and back to the whales for what he did to destroy the game.
All in all i have yet to see a game that incorporates everything im looking for as a player. Pet taming similar to WoW/PWI combined with a little of AoC's raising of mounts and mounted combat system, GW2/Lotro housing with Lotro/Aion cosmetics, SWTOR storytelling and craft/gathering with humanoid companion system. Why is it it seems that everyone knows what should go into a great mmo but no one is putting together ALL the pieces into one single game?
Why do people compare GW2 like this? The playerbase will fall of after launch?
Ain't that the point? The game has no subscription. It's players are subscribed indefintely. Their interest will depend on how good ArenaNet is at making worthwhile Expansions, that they want to pay for.
Also why would people who enjoy Raid end games like WoW want GW2? Many people will probably find the game fun, but the game OBVIOUSLY is not for the people who love current MMORPGs with trinity and who want the same. I think millions of people in WoW will not be satisfied with GW2. It's not what they are after. They like raiding 6 hours a day.
And so what? The good thing about GW2 is it's niche. It's not on a hunt for subscribers. Just for dedicated players who will buy the content.
EvE isn't releasing in Asia. They are coming out with a Japanese-language client and players using it will be on the tranquility server. While they may see more subs with the addition of the new client, any gamers there who really want to play EvE already do.
Comments
TERA should be in there to in addition to Secret World. APB? Star Trek?? Final Fantasy???
Seriously...
Who says?
It's quite possible that GW2 can be such a success that people switch. I'm not basing this on any major source of information, just what I read on forums, but i think a lot of people hang around in WoW because there's little decent competition. Games start off great and people leave WoW, then the games turn out to be mismanaged, or simply not that good, and people flock back to WoW.
Take Warhammer. When that game released there was a very nice population and people moved over from WoW looking for something new. A month later they went back to WoW. Now if WAR had been better managed maybe they might have stayed.
I believe people are looking for new. WoW is convenient and friendly. People have friends in WoW and know the game. They'll move for something that hits all the right buttons though. Nothing really has yet...not since WoW. 2012 is likely to bring the biggest change to the MMO genre for many a year.
If GW2 releases early in 2012 then it has enough time to inflict a serious dent in WoW's numbers.
Besides, I feel it foolish to base success on numbers alone. Quality and reviews are equally important. If GW2 gains a large population at release, and keeps it, I would call that a measure of success.
.
1 goes to WoW. When WoW is circlign the drain you still pay homageto the dying god. WoW wont be king with half the subscribers gone because it will have fallen into obscurity and the throne will lay empty and unfilled.
DEATH TO THE KING! FREE THE MMOS! DEATH TO THE KING!
Truth is Blizzard can't keep WoW relevent. The ship is sinking and all Blizzard can do is keep it afloat for a few more minutes while the players abbandon it for better deals.
It is best for the industry the MMO throne remains an dusty empty seat never to be filled.
LoL, what Hype are you talking about? they revealed almost nothing about the game, there is almost no hype, there are more people like you that unhype the secret world than people hyping it...
that's why I said: sleeper hit
I think most fans knew Cryptic didn't have it in them to create a good MMO once we saw how bad CO was. For Cryptic to still be in business after two massive flops is amazing to me.
I was actually shocked at how bad FF14 was recieved. I'm not surprised it didn't live up to hype, because no game has done that in quite a long time. I'm just shocked that it had zero redeeming qualities for such a huge title. At least in WAR, the scenarios were fun.
Will GW2 live up to its hype? I don't know. I've already pretty much given up on MMOs ever being as grand as they were back in 99-2003. Solo player games have far surpassed MMOs in depth at this point, which was not the case at the turn of the century.
Actually solo player games simulate the depth of a MMO, since they are made for just one player it is easy to itemize and plot player growth without concern for any outside elements such as other players.
To me most single player games, even Morrowind and Oblivion seem hollow after MMO's.
Even once you win the game or get that awesome item, there is no one around to see it or even say Grats.
Have a sense of humor, no need to get ALL MODDY !
A Simpson's quote shouldn't be worth a warning. You are lucky anyone is bothering to read this rag.
Why would it? GW2 is no sub so, purely from a budgeting perspective, people will likely play both games. There's no reason to think that someone who enjoys playing WoW and enjoys playing GW2 will stop paying for WoW.
Funcom + Release = trouble. Mark my words, they have a history of trouble and it ultimately damages their games.
Are you kidding me? I'm not a fanboy of GW2 but saying that SWTOR will kingpin GW2 because GW2 is WoW with new graphics? Quite the opposite, ol' chap.
He who keeps his cool best wins.
My thoughts:
Wow is going to stay on top for at least the next year or 2 due to its massive player base. Even if they lost half each year, they'd still be the bigggest for a while.
GW2 has a lot of promise, but even if its a great sucess, its going to take a while to build market share, so I'd be suprised to see it make even #2 in its first year.
Eve has been steadily growing each year, but is limited to combat in space, which doesn't appeal to many. I can't see it reaching more than #5.
LOTRO is doing very well and has a new expansion to release very soon. I'd expect to see it in the top 5 next year. Its main weakness is limited PvP (which I don't care about).
EQ2 could have had a big revival if it had handled EQ2x better. SOE got too greedy and overly restricted the F2P. Look at LOTRO for the proper way to handle it.
Aion and STO are in decline and their only hope to be in next year's top 10 are with a good F2P option. Even then, I think STO has been too much of a disappointment to recover.
It's funny how many of the "sure win" games have turned into major flops.
my question is does anyone actually CARE what game some guy thinks is the best?played wow it sucked for me.ie i would not put it #1nor even in the top 10.but that is MY opinion just like he has HIS,and i for one think mine is more revelant to me than HIS.
of his top 10 ,ive played 3 that i can thnk of.now i wander if you had the top 10 list of paid advertisers and compared it to his list i wander how close it would match.
SWTOR and GWII, are both building way to much hype. there will be droves of players upset with those two games.
They build the hype because it sells more boxes. more boxes = more money. Im just going to go to sams club and buy popcorn in bulk because there will be endless entertainment reading the forums on release, itll be better than any movie, and last months.
Waiting for:EQ-Next, ArcheAge (not so much anymore)
Now Playing: N/A
Worst MMO: FFXIV
Favorite MMO: FFXI
More likely just a sleeper. Chance of loud snoring from its small playerbase likely to be heard.
-Letting Derek Smart work on your game is like letting Osama bin Laden work in the White House. Something will burn.-
-And on the 8th day, man created God.-
Actually, I have my doubts.
For a start it has some serious competition from one game alone, Lord of the Rings Online, as the best MMO since 2004.
Then you have the two games that will be released either this year or next, Star Wars: The Old Republic and The Secret World. Both seem amazing.
And because of the two MMO's mentioned above you can't say Guild Wars 2 will be better "without a doubt" because 1.) those two will be released before Guild Wars 2, and 2.) you haven't played it only saw videos. (I saw videos for Warhammer, Aion, Age of Conan and Cataclysm and thought they were the best thing since sliced bread, oh how wrong I was for thinking that... I can see myself in you sadly.)
The only "without a doubt" is that Star Wars will be a success, I'm unsure if Guild Wars 2 or the Secret World will be a success yet, but Star Wars is already a given based on preorders
Btw, I'm not a Star Wars fanboy or nothing, I just hate the crap it gets on this website, and I feel I must defend (Yes mainly because I preordered, and if it is bad I will be severely dissapointed haha.)
The fact so many flops made the list should tell you the MMO industry is not a healthy one and frankly i hope they get the message we are not supporting the crap you put out and call games. We are smarter than the hampsters on the wheels you treat us as , and if you enjoy loosing money keep it up
I personally don't think GW2 will be more popular than WoW. Nearly all MMO players just seem to like skipping the quest script and just raid and stuff, they don't give a crap about the story or anything and that's what GW2 is all about.
I personally am looking forward to GW2, Blade and Soul and it's free counterpart Age of Wulin.
That is an actual possibility, as in the GW2 player base falling off a bit after launch. I doubt it considering they did pretty fair with GW1.
But thats the thing. Even if they do loose players, those players have already bought the game. See its one thing for a game like Aion which charges a sub fee to go ahead and sort of fail and loose players. But not GW2. Because its buy and play. So if the game needs improvement, and they do the improving? Guess who comes back and gives it a go? Everyone. Thats who. I mean, why not?
But a game that has failed to impress me originally making improvements its a bit different. Because while Ive heard they've improved, it still requires me to dish out more money to see said improvements. And since Ive already got that bad taste in my mouth Im likely to not bother.
I agree with you. I'm one of the few that actually enjoys (and sometimes I think, understands) instancing. It solves the problem of never being over crowded. However, with a dynamic event actually replacing quests rather than being a cheap add on that just repeats its self every 5 minutes (champions online), I think that will solve the crowding problem since people being around you will help rather than restrict.
As for super hero MMOs, City of Heroes will always be number 1 until CoH2. I though DCUO might give it a run for its money with it coming to the ps3, but I should have known better. Its just another MMO riding on its name/brand. I honestly think thats something The Old Republic will do, because of everything they've shown so far. However, unlike DCUO, I think more people will play it and it'll be successful because from what I can tell, Star Wars geeks are more hardcore that DC fans, not to mention ToR will probably have enough content.
In terms of US/EU subs, for 2012:
1. WoW. there is absolutely, positively zero chance that a year form now WoW isnt still tops on the market. Its just not happening. Over half the remaing people would have to leave AND SWToR would have to shatter expectations
2. SWToR. If it stays for 2013 remains to be seen
3. GW2. See above. But both these games will do well enough initially. Since GW2 doesnt really have subs it will be tough to fully guage though. It surely will exceed 500k box sales which puts in pretty easily in third
4. EvE. For the first time I am seeing negativity about EvE lately. Maybe enough to stagnate its growth or even take away some players? At first i thought to put Rift in here but GW2 and SWToR will decimate the current population since theyll appeal to the same audience. EvE is unique and wont face the same exodus
5. Rift. A lot of people love the game. trion has been quick with raid content and events, but not so quick with fleshing the game out and its balance remains shaky as does its PvP. Its retention rate is by far the lower than any hit MMOs have been, but they are doing a decent job with acquisitions. If they can get it right it will do well. i see it settling in after the dust from the big two releases has settled at 250k or so
After this there is a big drop off and a lot of uncertainty with sub numbers. none of these games is going to be over the 200k mark unless you count Lotro's f2pers, which I am not.
6. Age of Conan. I cant believe Im saying this, but this title actually seems to be picking up steam after its horrible start. its different enough from the competition, and the Conan brand will be fresh in people's minds.
7. Its really tough to call. Im going to say Everquest 2 here just because tis the most stable of the older games and the other new games are going to be hit or miss. Tera will flop, the secret world ill discuss later, and archeage will need more time to release or else it will suffer. Meanwhile, EQ2 will be adding a very popular class and intriguing create your own dungeon concept. SoE seems to be willing to think outside the box a little and that just may push it over the edge of the crap heap down below.
8. The Secret World. the toughest game on the list to place. Somewhat reputable company, sandbox type progression, unique setting....but thaat 'unique' setting is modern. I just dont think the draw is there. Fantasy and Sci Fi both allow endless possibilities, setting it in modern times can restrict it. Still if done right it could be a hit, but it wont be a hit at release. Which may or may not be in 2012
9. LOTRO. The f2pers will move on to other games that will go f2p instead of subbing. Id be highly doubtful lotro has more than 150k subs as it is, and its getting stale. I predict this one to fall a bit in 2012.
10. Aion. No one really cares about it in US, but then theres not much else to really consider. FFXIV wont gain enough momentum to put it here, and EQ1 is starting to wind down.
If it's being made by Funcom the chances are it won't even be on the list. Also, Age of Conan? Right...
FFXIV will be around number 5 if not 4 in 2012. It was a failure at launch but the changes they have made so far are massive and we still have 2 massive patches before we even get to see the world change from it's original state. By 2012 this game will be the success it was meant to be especially if the PS3 version drops Q4 2011 or Q1 2012.
Completely disagree with WoW being anywhere close to the top ten, here's a few "why"s
1. it doesn't matter the number of people you have subbed because in the end it's how fun your game is, just because people try to stay together with their familiar clicks of friends does in no way make a game great and right now that is lterally the only GLUE holding WoW together.
2. When cata was released it was fresh content but since then it's been one repeat of content after another, same models, same bosses, etc etc. no new profession recipes for the standard professions (including my personal favorite that Ghostcrawler went out of his way to kill dead, Engineering), constantly having to relearn the class due to pvp balancing every couple of weeks, faction rep grinding for hardly anything good items, impersonal dungeon finder, complete nerfing of healers to the point there AREN'T any anymore, all contributed to WoW's loss of my account permanently.
3. Most likely what will happen is the Marine Biologist they put in charge along with his Goblin buddies won't see the writing on the wall and will continue to churn out the same old junk and expect the community to just swallow it and keep playing like nothing happened. I hope and pray that the coming of GW2, SWTOR, and a few other choice models will bump WoW's numbers so low that it slaps Ghostcrawler right out of his OCD chair and back to the whales for what he did to destroy the game.
All in all i have yet to see a game that incorporates everything im looking for as a player. Pet taming similar to WoW/PWI combined with a little of AoC's raising of mounts and mounted combat system, GW2/Lotro housing with Lotro/Aion cosmetics, SWTOR storytelling and craft/gathering with humanoid companion system. Why is it it seems that everyone knows what should go into a great mmo but no one is putting together ALL the pieces into one single game?
Why do people compare GW2 like this? The playerbase will fall of after launch?
Ain't that the point? The game has no subscription. It's players are subscribed indefintely. Their interest will depend on how good ArenaNet is at making worthwhile Expansions, that they want to pay for.
Also why would people who enjoy Raid end games like WoW want GW2? Many people will probably find the game fun, but the game OBVIOUSLY is not for the people who love current MMORPGs with trinity and who want the same. I think millions of people in WoW will not be satisfied with GW2. It's not what they are after. They like raiding 6 hours a day.
And so what? The good thing about GW2 is it's niche. It's not on a hunt for subscribers. Just for dedicated players who will buy the content.
EvE isn't releasing in Asia. They are coming out with a Japanese-language client and players using it will be on the tranquility server. While they may see more subs with the addition of the new client, any gamers there who really want to play EvE already do.