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EvE- Bleeding subscriptions

GnatBugGnatBug JohanesburgPosts: 75Member

http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility (GRAPHS are read from RIGHT TO LEFT)

In a game where you have to commit so much time  into developing a character it ... must be alarming to notice the down ward trend related to the active players in a given period.

I would assume that if your PCU shows a consistent drop it translates to active subs also falling. It seems that EVE-Online is in some sort of regress... not sure the reason ..Besides "NEX GATE" or  "Monical Gate" ...!

And it can't be summer ..because the drop started way before ...about Feb this year!

Is this the start of the long road South!

 

Update : This artical is a good analysis... 

http://jestertrek.blogspot.com/2011/07/not-all-curves-are-pretty.html

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Comments

  • ElsaboltsElsabolts Greencastle, INPosts: 2,594Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by GnatBug

    http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility (GRAPHS are read from RIGHT TO LEFT)

    In a game where you have to commit so much time  into developing a character it ... must be alarming to notice the down ward trend related to the active players in a given period.

    I would assume that if your PCU shows a consistent drop it translates to active subs also falling. It seems that EVE-Online is in some sort of regress... not sure the reason ..Besides "NEX GATE" or  "Monical Gate" ...!

    And it can't be summer ..because the drop started way before ...about Feb this year!

    Is this the start of the long road South!

     I believe some folks are not to happy in the direction the game is taking and are voteing so with there subscription fees. Now the short answer is    " Yes "

    image

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member

    What's causing the exodus?  Aging game or bad policy decision from CCP?

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • KyleranKyleran Tampa, FLPosts: 19,978Member Uncommon

    Well, I know after a short return I cancelled my 4 subs, my real life schedule just doesn't work well with EVE anymore and none of the content patches of the past year or so have interested me.  Maybe others are having the same issues.

    In my day MMORPG's were so hard we fought our way through dungeons in the snow, uphill both ways.
    "I don't have one life, I have many lives" - Grunty
    Still currently "subscribed" to EVE, and only EVE!!!
    "This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon

  • bmw66bmw66 sparta, NJPosts: 106Member

    Well if I could sell my 75 million SP character on ebay I would but thats not allowed *cough*.  Its a waste to let these characters just wither away when someone else could use it and pay the sub.   Its a win for the person who dosent want to wait to skill up and a win for CCP to keep a  potential sub.

    It just to much work to play a game.  I remember roaming around in 0.0 with a gang and over the course of 4-5 hours have one skirmish..........BORING.

  • KhalathwyrKhalathwyr Denton, TXPosts: 3,138Member

    Originally posted by Icewhite

    What's causing the exodus?  Aging game or bad policy decision from CCP?

    I'd have to vote bad policy decisions. The Eve crowd has always seemed to me to be the old school crowd that didn't whine about games "being second jobs" and had no issue at all with "time put into the game" being a factor to your reward back. They also seemed to be the crowd that is against item malls for in game items aside from PLEX which is just game time.

     

    So, to read that leaked newsletter along with the NEX store and such, it is clear CCP is changing up their policies a bit to go in a different direction. Trouble is that direction is not one their CURRENT SUBSCRIBERS want, apparently. I guess CCP learned nothing from SOE's mistake.

     

    CCP used to be the last of the "old school" developers that I trusted. I looked forward to World of Darkness Online. Now, not so much. That an item mall with everything from "cosmetic" to "power" items are in the plans for it just completely let the air out of my balloon for that title. It's sad when companies think they have to include item malls to make money. If they would just make a solid game in the first place they'd rake in subscription money hand over fist.

    "Many nights, my friend... Many nights I've put a blade to your throat while you were sleeping. Glad I never killed you, Steve. You're alright..."

    Kickstarter 2 / Naysayers 0

  • devontedevonte londonPosts: 36Member

    Originally posted by GnatBug

    http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility (GRAPHS are read from RIGHT TO LEFT)

    In a game where you have to commit so much time  into developing a character it ... must be alarming to notice the down ward trend related to the active players in a given period.

    I would assume that if your PCU shows a consistent drop it translates to active subs also falling. It seems that EVE-Online is in some sort of regress... not sure the reason ..Besides "NEX GATE" or  "Monical Gate" ...!

    And it can't be summer ..because the drop started way before ...about Feb this year!

    Is this the start of the long road South!

    Yes graphs are read from left to right but if you hoover the mouse over you can see the date goes from 2011 to 2006 so daily average is going up and the small drop at the start is within parameteres...

    All the graph shows is that it has reached it's peak not that subs are dropping. Fluncuations like this are normal at peak level.

  • HaegemonHaegemon Anaheim, CAPosts: 266Member

    I think the op misread that site. 

     

    if you mouse over the datapoints, youll see it goes right to left for oldest to newest.

    ie. those big spikes showing 40k plus concurrent users are all recent activity. the under 12k numbers are from back in like 07

     

    although its not my kinda game because of the combat, eve isnt going anywhere. the dread rmt scare was just hysterics of people who chose to be uninformed.

    Lets Push Things Forward

    I knew I would live to design games at age 7, issue 5 of Nintendo Power.

    Support games with subs when you believe in their potential, even in spite of their flaws.

  • HaegemonHaegemon Anaheim, CAPosts: 266Member

    Originally posted by devonte

    Originally posted by GnatBug

    http://eve-offline.net/?server=tranquility (GRAPHS are read from RIGHT TO LEFT)

    In a game where you have to commit so much time  into developing a character it ... must be alarming to notice the down ward trend related to the active players in a given period.

    I would assume that if your PCU shows a consistent drop it translates to active subs also falling. It seems that EVE-Online is in some sort of regress... not sure the reason ..Besides "NEX GATE" or  "Monical Gate" ...!

    And it can't be summer ..because the drop started way before ...about Feb this year!

    Is this the start of the long road South!

    Yes graphs are read from left to right but if you hoover the mouse over you can see the date goes from 2011 to 2006 so daily average is going up and the small drop at the start is within parameteres...

    beat me to the logical conclusion by 45sec.. lol

    Lets Push Things Forward

    I knew I would live to design games at age 7, issue 5 of Nintendo Power.

    Support games with subs when you believe in their potential, even in spite of their flaws.

  • Adam1902Adam1902 Posts: 524Member Uncommon

    Where does that site show it's "bleeding subs"? {mod edit}

    EDIT: Let me also add, that considering what CCP have recantly done (I don't think I need to say it again), the subs are more than fucking dandy.

    _________
    Currently in casual mode!
    Playing: Few FPS games.

    Watching: Albion Online: Summer alpha was great, but the game seems to be progressing towards heavy instancing.

    Always hating on instances in MMOs! Open worlds, open PvP, territory control and housing please. More persistence, more fun.

  • GnatBugGnatBug JohanesburgPosts: 75Member

    Nope i did not misread the site ... If you read my post you would have seen i noted the decline from FEB 2011 !

  • devontedevonte londonPosts: 36Member

    Originally posted by GnatBug

    Nope i did not misread the site ... If you read my post you would have seen i noted the decline from FEB 2011 !

    If you actually looked at the graph you can see it peaks every january and febuary and declines after then rises again. All that graph shows that activity is perfectly normal

  • BoardwalkerBoardwalker Austin, TXPosts: 384Member Uncommon

    45K online right now. Enjoy your graphs and "the sky is falling" nonsense while I pew pew.

    They can adjust a game all day, but they can't help the issue between the keyboard and the chair.
    Played: UO, DAoC, AC, WoW, EVE, TR, WAR, Aion, Rift, SWTOR, GW2, TSW, ESO, Elite:D
    Play EVE for free for 21 days

  • MalcanisMalcanis LondonPosts: 3,191Member

    There's a pretty clear correllation: Whenever CCP have put effort into expanding and improving the spaceship game of EVE, they've been rewarded with more subscriptions. Whenever they've neglected and stagnated it, they've seen flat or falling subs. EVE was growing at an extremely respectable ~10% a year as long as CCP were actively developing what their customers wanted. After spring 2009, they started developing what they thought their customers should want, and their numbers have been in the doldrums ever since. The primetime PCU has been trundling along at 45k or so for the past 3 years.

    Incarna, which could have been their springboard to bring EVE to a new level and should have gained them tens of thousands of new customers, was such a giant failure of imagination, ambition, execution and presentation that an expansion which has been awaited for 5 years launched and they've actually lost subscriptions from it. I was genuinely looking forward to Incarna, and I have always been a supporter of the concept, and to say that I was disappointed with what we were given would be the understatement of the year. Incarn failed on every level. Only the fact that CCP were reluctantly forced las year to assign a couple of dev teams (Team Gridlock, Team BFF) to do at least some maintenence of the core game kept me logging in. Those two teams have worked like heroes with a tiny amount of resources to keep the spaceships flying. Meanwhile the Incarna team, with ten times as much time, money and devs to work with accomplished... a waiting room. :awesome:

    They've spent years of dev time, burned millions of Euros, dragged their reputation through the mud and exhausted their customers patience & good will, and they have nothing to show for it, not even more money. They've even failed at selling out! 

    One would like to think that such an unbelievable failure of leadership would be a sufficient wake-up call for them to genuinely do what they promised to do last year, which was to reconnect their vision to what their customers actually want to buy from them.

    Give me liberty or give me lasers

  • Z3R01Z3R01 NYC, NYPosts: 2,426Member

    EvE is doing just fine...

    You cant expect a game that old to increase in numbers every year forever.

    Sooner or later people will tire of the game.

    I've played four years and i hardly log in anymore.

    This has nothing to do with the quality of the game and everything to do with me getting tired of playing the same game for almost half a decade.

    Playing:

    Waiting on:

  • JeroKaneJeroKane OsloPosts: 5,353Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Malcanis

    There's a pretty clear correllation: Whenever CCP have put effort into expanding and improving the spaceship game of EVE, they've been rewarded with more subscriptions. Whenever they've neglected and stagnated it, they've seen flat or falling subs. EVE was growing at an extremely respectable ~10% a year as long as CCP were actively developing what their customers wanted. After spring 2009, they started developing what they thought their customers should want, and their numbers have been in the doldrums ever since. The primetime PCU has been trundling along at 45k or so for the past 3 years.

    Incarna, which could have been their springboard to bring EVE to a new level and should have gained them tens of thousands of new customers, was such a giant failure of imagination, ambition, execution and presentation that an expansion which has been awaited for 5 years launched and they've actually lost subscriptions from it. I was genuinely looking forward to Incarna, and I have always been a supporter of the concept, and to say that I was disappointed with what we were given would be the understatement of the year. Incarn failed on every level. Only the fact that CCP were reluctantly forced las year to assign a couple of dev teams (Team Gridlock, Team BFF) to do at least some maintenence of the core game kept me logging in. Those two teams have worked like heroes with a tiny amount of resources to keep the spaceships flying. Meanwhile the Incarna team, with ten times as much time, money and devs to work with accomplished... a waitinggr room. :awesome:

    They've spent years of dev time, burned millions of Euros, dragged their reputation through the mud and exhausted their customers patience & good will, and they have nothing to show for it, not even more money. They've even failed at selling out! 

    One would like to think that such an unbelievable failure of leadership would be a sufficient wake-up call for them to genuinely do what they promised to do last year, which was to reconnect their vision to what their customers actually want to buy from them.

     I totally agree! Especially since they now stated that it will take another 5 years before we will really see fully functional multiplayer station areas where more than 100 people can gather.  I mean? ROFLMAO! Another 5 years?? Really?? lol.

  • PhryPhry HampshirePosts: 6,288Member Uncommon

    Seems to me that the people trying to say that Eve is bleeding subs etc, just isnt substantiated.. peak times are as busy as ever, and even off peak is seeing good numbers of players, if people are cancelling, then its probably those who werent playing anyway, as im not seeing a drop in players online..

    I think most of it is envy etc, Eve has won a lot of awards for its design and gameplay, despite having a low subscription base (350,000 active subs) it has achieved something that even new games aspire to, and some have tried to copy.. and failed at badly (perpetuum etc.) Eve has never tried to be everything to everybody, there's WoW and its various clones, old and upcoming that try for that dubious distinction.. and .. yet games are still held up for comparison against the mark that Eve has set... and are mostly regarded as being below it.. which isnt bad for a game that has never hit even half the player numbers of the games its often compared to..

    But the one thing, is that despite being an 'older' game.. its one thats evolved, imo, at a faster rate than those around it.. and i can't help but think that is because the link between players and developers is such a close one... there will probably always be 'some' type of controversy on the horizon.. but thats part of the games evolution.. it goes on... as long as that remains.. Eve will probably always be unique among MMO's.. and successful..  in its own way at least image

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon

    Top high(concurrent user peak record) increase every year - early 2011 the last time, so the trend is clearly upwards.

    Sorry that evidence isn't supporting your false statements...

  • AnthurAnthur StolbergPosts: 686Member Uncommon

    Where are the stock exchange technical analysts if you need one ? Anyway, I will try just for fun.

    If you look at the past year chart you can see a level of resistance starting 2011-03-01 at about 18.000. Starting at 2011-05-17 you can clearly see that this level of resistance has several breakouts through this level.

    What does this mean for the future ? I really have no clue. But I don't believe in technical analysis anyway. ^^

    My personal feeling is that Eve has seen its best times.

  • YalexyYalexy BerlinPosts: 1,053Member Uncommon

    EvE isn't bleeding subs, but there's a standstill.

    The graphs show nothing special. Shortly after the patch the PCU rises, and then falls again with summertime being the lowest PCU by default. Nothing changed there over the years. The playerbase steadily increased.

    However, CCP has made some bad decisions that let the subscription-numbers stagnate. The NEX-shop isn't actually a reason, it's just a good projection-area for all the bad decisions.

    0.0 has to be revamped - the territorial warfare systems are totally crap and the capital ships totally took overhand, noone wants to play capitals online besides some selected few. Jumpfreighters and jumpbridges need to go aswell, as they made it possible to control vast chunks of space by a handful of people. Oh... and make player built outposts destructible finally.

    Low-sec needs to be changed - Low-Sec should be between all of the four faction-spaces, with no possibility to fly from down south to north or west to east without being forced to cross low-sec. Rewards for factional warfare and LvL5 missions need to be increased and lowered for high-sec-missions (risk vs. reward!).

    High-sec rewards has to be lowered drastically - LvL4 missions need to be radically revamped. It's laughable that you can fund your gametime (350-400 Mil ISK per PLEX) by playing only one hour every evening.
    On a slow weekend with bad weather and nothing else to do I make 400 Mil easily by only grinding LvL4 missions in total safety. That needs to go!

    Mining and minerals - minerals should be mined again, not collected by killing NPCs. The vast amount of minerals comes from loot and alloys these days and mining is only needed for ice-products basically. I'd say do away with 90% of the loot from NPCs. That would fix LvL4 missions on the same time aswell to some degree.

    Incarna - well... we waited a long time for Incarna. We did like the idea of leaving our ship and walking around in stations, playing some poker with friends or watching strippers instead of spinning our ships.
    But, the current state of Incarna is totally not worth it and allmost everyone I know has turned it off (not loading the station environment). The current state of Incarna added some fluff for those interested, but it did take away some good features aswell (double-clicking in the hangar to open cargo of current ship for example).

    EvE needs to change and get back to it's roots of being a cold and harsh universe.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Yalexy

    EvE needs to change and get back to it's roots of being a cold and harsh universe.

    And you assumption is based on...?

    Before you reply, I would like to point out the fact that all what CCP have done so far - by your means diversion from 'cold and harsh universe', made the game successful as it is now.

  • Eta.CarineaEta.Carinea Welwyn Garden CityPosts: 14Member

    I deleted my 5 year old character, its a good way on ensuring i am not tempted to go back in the future. For me it was the door, i pay a monthly fee and i was less than happy that after a patch  which left me with far less than i had, plus it made the whole station enviroment a chore. I was so annoyed with the whole affair around the patch i just hit the delete button. I can honestly say i have not looked back, i will keep one eye on the development of eve but it lost its sole. But in truth eve did that for me a year or so ago, the door was simply the straw that broke the camels back for me.

     

     

    But i stress i wish the game well because it is really the last of a great breed of games where anything goes.

     

           

    Currently Waiting for Guild Wars 2.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Eta.Carinea
    I deleted my 5 year old character, its a good way on ensuring i am not tempted to go back in the future. For me it was the door, i pay a monthly fee and i was less than happy that after a patch  which left me with far less than i had, plus it made the whole station enviroment a chore. I was so annoyed with the whole affair around the patch i just hit the delete button. I can honestly say i have not looked back, i will keep one eye on the development of eve but it lost its sole. But in truth eve did that for me a year or so ago, the door was simply the straw that broke the camels back for me.
     
     
    But i stress i wish the game well because it is really the last of a great breed of games where anything goes.
     
         


    Again? It's getting repetitive...


    Originally posted on 1/01/11 9:59 AM by Eta.Carinea

    Lastly after the number of years I have been in the game I am closing my account
    ...
    I leave because for me 4+ years is enough time to spend in EvE.

  • Eta.CarineaEta.Carinea Welwyn Garden CityPosts: 14Member

    I am not sure of the poiint you are trying to make?

    Yes as i said its been like this for me for a year, or so but i did go back, spent some time in game mainly to help Bricksquad and a RL friend  this was only for about 3 months, then the patch hit and  like i say that damm door. i deleted my character. 

    Here he is now go do a search for him in game..

    http://eve.battleclinic.com/killboard/combat_record.php?type=player&name=Eta+Carinea

     

    And i stress again i wish eve well, so dont get all defensive when someone dsoes not reassure you how good your little world is..

     

    Currently Waiting for Guild Wars 2.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Eta.Carinea
    I am not sure of the poiint you are trying to make?
     

    I am not defensive, the question is what your point is?

    People leave and come back all the time, it is a standard subscriber pattern thus I do not see a point in your post as you did nothing particularly exceptional or interesting.

    You basically say: Hey, I am the guy who has on and off relationship with EVE, just like most/some of you.

    Sure, you can just express yourself, but then I just do not see a point in what you are saying.

    If you have posted the same post after a year or more, saying you have deleted your character and never since you subscribed or purchased PLEX, then sure...it would make sense to me.

    Every expansion make some people leave as you cannot please everyone. Some will be back, some will be not, some new will come and so far, more people are coming to EVE rather than leaving. As long as incomers are exceeded by newcomers, it isn't anything extraordinary, that's how the business work.


  • YalexyYalexy BerlinPosts: 1,053Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Gdemami
    Originally posted by YalexyEvE needs to change and get back to it's roots of being a cold and harsh universe.

    And you assumption is based on...?

    Before you reply, I would like to point out the fact that all what CCP have done so far - by your means diversion from 'cold and harsh universe', made the game successful as it is now.


    Either you're not familiar with EvE some five or six years ago or you've never done anything else then doing missions.

    EvE needs to be harsh, with lot's of stuff blowing up and lots of time required to built something up. That's the basic nature of a non-inflational and working economy.
    Currently however, EvE sees alot of inflation which is allmost completely down to the fact, that high-sec is giving too high instant monetary rewards without any risk involved and that the drone-regions flood the game with cheap minerals.

    What made the game succesful isn't the fact that it got less harsh actually, but the fact that there's no competition for EvE at all. Everyone interested in spaceships, playerdriven economy or meaningful territorial warfare has no other game to play then EvE Online currently. That's the reason for the steadily growing playerbase during the last years.

    SWG was good and destroyed itself with the NGE... alot of old SWG-players joined EvE. STO is laughable and alot of Trekkies are playing EvE actually. SWTOR will sure attract alot of people that are currently left with EvE Online, but it remains to be seen how long it takes before SWTOR get's boring.
    Neocron and Earthrise had good ideas and were attractive for the pool of possible EvE-players, but they didn't manage to deliver.

    So yeah, EvE's success is absolutely down to no competition imho, so CCP can actually do alot of stuff without seeing their players turn their backs on EvE.

    ArcheAge will be the next thing that might be attractive for possible EvE-players, but it's fantasy, so it'll be a tough call. Nevertheless ArcheAge is currently on the top of my list of MMOs in development if we neglect the setting and purely go with features.

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