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General: Prognostications for 2011

SBFordSBFord Associate Editor - News ManagerThe Land of AZPosts: 16,613MMORPG.COM Staff Uncommon

It's that time of year, the time when things wind down for the preceding twelve months, the time of reflection and the time for looking ahead to the coming year. In his latest MMORPG.com column, Bill Murphy prognosticates about 2011. Check out his thoughts and then add a few of your own in the comments section below.

I’m positive we’re going to see about nine million of these over the coming weeks and days. And I’m sure we’ll see a lot of rehashed ground in the process. But hey… what’s one more for the pile? It’s fun to make crass predictions about the times ahead and see how they all shake out. I like pretending I’m a serious analyst, but using completely nonsensical bases for my forecasts. And hey, let’s face it. 2010 was not the greatest year for MMO gaming. When the best thing to happen is the re-molding of content that’s six years old you know it’s not been an excited time. There were plenty of downs to talk about though… but let’s avoid that here. Instead, let’s talk about the year ahead and what could be (both good and bad) because it’s just plain fun.

Read more Bill Murphy: Prognostications for 2011.

Associate Editor: MMORPG.com
Follow me on Twitter: @MMORPGMom

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Comments

  • EcabanaEcabana Montreal, QCPosts: 95Member

    Happy New year Bill!

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel houston, TXPosts: 7,277Member Uncommon

    I think you pretty much nailed my expectations for next year on just about all fronts. 

    "Loan me a Dragon I wanna see space"


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  • whilanwhilan Everett, WAPosts: 3,172Member Uncommon

    Thats my predictions as well except for 2 things.

    ToR is likely to come out sooner then the end of the year as they are still slated to release for spring 2011 and with a year of testing by then i think they will hit near that mark if not on it.

    Also i predict that GW2 won't hit the 2011 release mark, predictions place it at the end of 2011 and thats before any set backs that tend to happen with testing of a game.  I predict early 2012 though.

    Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.

    Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.

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  • sudosudo Tel-AvivPosts: 697Member Uncommon

    Great stuff as usual, Bill.

    How about:

    "FINAL FANTASY XIV COMES BACK WITH PS3 RELEASE AND CLIMBS UP TO "THE BEST MMORPG COMEBACK OF 2011" ?

    :)

    Good luck to all of us in the next year!

    "Only in quiet waters do things mirror themselves undistorted.
    Only in a quiet mind is adequate perception of the world."
    Hans Margolius

  • Vagrant_ZeroVagrant_Zero Van Nuys, CAPosts: 1,190Member

    Originally posted by sudo



    Great stuff as usual, Bill.

    How about:

    "FINAL FANTASY XIV COMES BACK WITH PS3 RELEASE AND CLIMBS UP TO "THE BEST MMORPG COMEBACK OF 2011" ?

    :)

    Good luck to all of us in the next year!


     

    Pigs Fly. :p

  • thamighty213thamighty213 NewcastlePosts: 1,630Member

    Good summary Bill although I'm not sure TOR will have that backlash BIOWARE has made no bones and no wild claims (heres looking at you RIFT) It will do exactly what it says on the tin so unless a player has been without internet for the last 18 months at launch then they should more than know what to expect.

     

    Also have a feeling GW2 may push to 2012 :(

  • KorithianKorithian IpswichPosts: 243Member

     I was under the impression that Fallout online was being built because Bethesda wanted interplay to make an online game and the law suit was all because Bethesda thought they were dragging their heels.

     

     Two games that have been missed off the list. The Secret World and World of Darkness Online both games that I think will offer something different to the MMO market. I hope they do exceptionally well cause I can't think of much like them. Most games seem to be either fantasy or sci-fi with little set in a dark present.

     

    Other than that I think very good predicitions with the exception of Star Wars ToR. While I agree that it will be a year till we see it where the team at bioware try to find solutions to adding their 4th pillar to the MMO game. I think the late release and the familiar formula set out by EQ or WoW will not offer enough to keep the players. So while it will be a criticial sucess the market will just have seen too many games already out in 2011 by the time it launches for it to break away from the pack and establish itself. And we all know what EA does if a game isn't making the profits it requires.

  • whilanwhilan Everett, WAPosts: 3,172Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by thamighty213

    Good summary Bill although I'm not sure TOR will have that backlash BIOWARE has made no bones and no wild claims (heres looking at you RIFT) It will do exactly what it says on the tin so unless a player has been without internet for the last 18 months at launch then they should more than know what to expect.

     

    Also have a feeling GW2 may push to 2012 :(

    Granted Bw has stated exactly what the game is, but i think, we already started to see the grumbling growing over time, the subforum for that title already has increased moderations on it and the people coming and trying to bash the game for one reason or another has increased.

    Regardless of how many times BW or it's fans state the features there is a storm coming and theres no way to stop it.  People will have expectations for this game, and everytime something doesn't meet those expectations they get riled up.  SW is a hot topic and the way BW is going about it makes it even hotter.

    Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.

    Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.

    image

  • unclemounclemo parker, COPosts: 396Member Uncommon

    There is no way Jumpgate sees the light of day next year.  No shot. 

    Also, who no prediction for which MMO with shut down this year? 2010 saw a year of shit releases.  All of them with trudge along and remain open December 31, 2011?

  • SintrixSintrix Anchorage, AKPosts: 52Member
    No predictions about TERA? I think the intoduction of the first true action mmo is going to have a major impact on the market. I had high hopes for DCUO, but the very limited power selection and tab targeting ruined it for me. Target locking and not being able to dodge ranged attacks makes it not an action game in my opinion. As for GW2, I'm not sure why it's on this list because it's not releasing until 2012.
  • SovejaSoveja BucharestPosts: 7Member

    Waw...  as expected, a very biased review... all the games are made in the US, even GW2 ( though the parent company is NcSoft)... I understand this might be a site targeted at the American audience, but open up your eyes man... there are a few Korean games that should be in this top.

    What about Tera?

     It's number 3 in the most hyped MMO's on your site... It does bring some new features like actual targeting in a sandbox seamless world... Now where exactly on the hype and reader importance list is Earthrise? you mention some small players but leave out some important ones...

     

    BTW GW will be launched around the same time with Blade & Soul... why isn't that on the top?? That brings something new.... actualy, what does GW3 bring new to the genre? cos I don't get it.

  • kalanthiskalanthis BrizvegasPosts: 111Member

    Huh, prognasticate. New word, today not a complete waste then:)

    Nice article, can't argue with too much there.

    I'm only really interested in DCUO, GW2, SWTOR and maybe RIFT. At least one of these games will be in my sweaty palms in the next fortnight, hopefully SWTOR can keep to their (new) 2011 timeline.

     

     

  • werewoodwerewood GTA, ONPosts: 76Member

    Wrong!

     

    Heh honestly I think that you are too biased with DCUO. They will do ok with Action game players, but I doubt even CoH people will shift.

    Overall they will have a good player base - but its not going to be even a big success. Not a flop either. But Action games will prove via DCUO and Tera too BTW - that they are not mainstream yet. Maybe Titan from Bliz will - but a lot of things need to happen to bring action into the mainstream. And DCUO is definitely not that.

    RIFT - will do great as people get the info they need and till the 1st of March everyone will know exactly what they buy. TOR and GW2 will affect it. Mainly the later. If GW2 is pushed we will even see RIFT as a WoW snatcher in 2011. Maybe getting steadily to 2.5 Million subs.

    TOR is going to appeal to people who like a story. As much as we like to ask for it - not everyone can stand a conversation and picking options. It will get its 2.5 Million subs though steadily too.

    GW2 is the great equalizer. I agree on that. If its good - we can forget everything that came before. Like WoW way back. It will reset the industry and begin the 3rd era of MMO. I am just disappointed of the lack of some classes. Assuming the missing professions are something similar to - assassin, blue lady pali, mesmer and gunner.

  • whilanwhilan Everett, WAPosts: 3,172Member Uncommon

    Some people are taking these predictions way too seriously.  These are just what he thinks will happen, not what will.  You can say you have a different prediction, but he currently isn't wrong.

    Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.

    Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.

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  • werewoodwerewood GTA, ONPosts: 76Member

    ^Whilan - you are right. But Bill is still wrong ;)

  • SfaliaraSfaliara NV, AZPosts: 438Member

    This is very biased...what about Tera, The Secret World, Blade & Soul and niche games like Firefall? Anything? For a "2011 prognostications" article you could include few more games other than these imo...That's a typical US writer for you.

  • CzelawCzelaw Florence, KYPosts: 167Member Uncommon

    O.o i dont get it......

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  • whilanwhilan Everett, WAPosts: 3,172Member Uncommon

    Whats with this "typical of american writers" thing, thats near report worthy.

    Merely cause he excluded a game doesn't mean anything, These are his predictions on what these games will do.

    Geez people are way too senasitive when their game isn't announced or talked about.

    It's fine to say why isn't this game or that game in there, can we leave the bashing of nations out of it. Thanks.

    Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.

    Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.

    image

  • MumboJumboMumboJumbo LondonPosts: 3,221Member

    Interesting list and comments. SWTOR and GW2 are top of the list for me and expect Summer SWTOR release and GW2 nov release. But you caught my interest with Jumpgate and Earthrise, those feel more leftfield and different also. DCUO actiony-combat does look set to capture some fans too. At least Rift is releasing soon so we can start accessing these MMOs but tbh choosing to ape wow has proven to be a hard act to follow so the Rifts and Soul System and hard-core elements have to be very stand out. I agree with a few posters some mentions on tera and b&s would be interesting even though the eastern art style puts me off, it will be interesting to see how they have designed their combat systems. Maybe FF lingers in the memory too soon?! Firefall looks like one to watch also and maybe a preview of what Blizzard's Titan will be about?!

  • ZeroxinZeroxin LondonPosts: 2,521Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Sfaliara



    This is very biased...what about Tera, The Secret World, Blade & Soul and niche games like Firefall? Anything? For a "2011 prognostications" article you could include few more games other than these imo...That's a typical US writer for you.


     

    We know you love Tera but just because a writer doesn't mention does not mean you should go attacking the poor guy lol.

    This is not a game.

  • SovejaSoveja BucharestPosts: 7Member

    Wilham... his predictions are like manipulations... you see... by talking a lot about some games and not mentioning others at all, he is creating a buzz on the games he wants us to know about:)) Ok over that paranoic part.

    Enough about the conspiration theory... a question to you all

    Is GW2 really is gonna revolutionize, reinvent MMORPG?? I kinda doubt it... We've seen 2-3 cool cinematics that present this epic world locked in a battle between good and evil, we've seen 2-3 videos of gameplay (that seems to be the same as in Aion or ther MMO's, i'm talking about targeting system and all)... and all people claim that this is gonna reinvent the wheel?? Why? what does it bring new to the MMO world? There are other games with good art design, what is the gameplay like? we have no freakin clue.

    Before hoping for the Mesiah of MMO in the form of GW2.. ask yourself this... didn't Aion look like that? (you could fly, and there was an upside down world and the abyss)... wasn't FFXV the coolest game ever when you saw those cool cinematics?... look at them now, when people got a chance to actually play and get past the PR hype and crafter promo video releases.... btw Rift seems to be going in the same direction from what I see in the reviews.

     

     

  • SfaliaraSfaliara NV, AZPosts: 438Member

    Originally posted by Zeroxin

    Originally posted by Sfaliara



    This is very biased...what about Tera, The Secret World, Blade & Soul and niche games like Firefall? Anything? For a "2011 prognostications" article you could include few more games other than these imo...That's a typical US writer for you.


     

    We know you love Tera but just because a writer doesn't mention does not mean you should go attacking the poor guy lol.

    Did you stop reading my comment halfway through it or what?

  • BattlestormBattlestorm Ocala, FLPosts: 98Member

    Holy crap, did I just read an article and enjoy it from beginning to end? It was like a good novel, I just kept reading and it seemed so natural. Great post, I enjoy reading the opinions and hopes of those in the MMORPG crowd. I can't say I argue with a lot of the points you made, though I normally would for argument's sake, and I think I'll just leave them be. Again, great article, thanks for sharing.

    I have to say that although I'm hesitant to care for any release in 2011 I also can't say that I haven't tied the kid in me down to a chair and stuffed a sock in his mouth. He's trying to jump around and get me excited about several releases, but I resist. Rift and GW2 look like great games, but in all honesty I yearn for something like Vanguard: SoH . . . but with actual monthly updates and no bugs, lol. Perhaps, moreso, something like Asheron's Call (when originally launched) . . . except with updated graphics and controls.

    In any case, what's coming down the line looks really good, but I'm waiting for post-release reviews for some of these games. Although I won't be part of the dedicated masses who will fight to log in for the first week against all odds I CAN say that Rift and GW2 will be purchased and tried never-the-less. Some gamers will look back on this year as the best year in a long time. That said, I have a feeling that the "Hardcore" crowd will look back with a bittersweet smile, appreciative of the slight improvements but longing for the days of coin having weight, unexplored lands withholding some form of mystery and lore that rivaled the best of fantasy books to-date.

    IMPORTANT: I'm right 100% of the time; even if I completely contradict something I, myself, have previously said I'm still right . . . on both accounts. Any arguments to the contrary are wrong. If you disagree please begin reading this important message from the beginning. Thank you for your time and understanding. ~Battlestorm

  • BattlestormBattlestorm Ocala, FLPosts: 98Member


    Originally posted by Daitengu
    All I got out of that was that Bill Murphy is only interested in games made by white people.

    OMG! LMAO! WIN!

    [serious or not, that statement is ridiculous . . . and hilarious]

    IMPORTANT: I'm right 100% of the time; even if I completely contradict something I, myself, have previously said I'm still right . . . on both accounts. Any arguments to the contrary are wrong. If you disagree please begin reading this important message from the beginning. Thank you for your time and understanding. ~Battlestorm

  • MumboJumboMumboJumbo LondonPosts: 3,221Member

    Originally posted by Sfaliara

    Originally posted by Zeroxin


    Originally posted by Sfaliara



    This is very biased...what about Tera, The Secret World, Blade & Soul and niche games like Firefall? Anything? For a "2011 prognostications" article you could include few more games other than these imo...That's a typical US writer for you.


     

    We know you love Tera but just because a writer doesn't mention does not mean you should go attacking the poor guy lol.

    Did you stop reading my comment halfway through it or what?

    Check your post history... it backs up what Zeroxin suggests. I'd be interested if tera was added as it's close to beta in Korea etc, but I don't see the need to slander ALL US writers because it's not mentioned in one list of many?

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