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(2 Steps Guide) How to Predict the Max Possible Subscription Numbers for upcoming MMO

MMOExposedMMOExposed lalal land, DCPosts: 6,257Member Uncommon

If you remember, I made a thread discussing the niche groups of the MMORPG genre.



http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/282112/page/1



Well. Here is how to predict the Max Possible Subs Numbers a upcoming MMO can get, before it even comes out.



1) Start at WoW's total Subs (11.5 Million right now)

2) Divide by 2 for each niche group the game  fits in, listed on the link above.

3) End Result is the max possible subs that game will have. (Things such as Bugs and Fail Hype, lower it down even feather, but these steps are for predicting the max Possible Sub numbers.)

 

 

Try it

 

Note: Charts change, as WoW Numbers rise each year. Which is why first step is important.

image

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Comments

  • GTwanderGTwander San Diego, CAPosts: 6,035Member

    It doesn't work.

    Xsyon only has one competitior; Wurm Online, and if you divide 11.5 mil by 4 you get a number that Xsyon is never going to see.

    Writer / Musician / Game Designer

    Now Playing: Skyrim, Wurm Online, Tropico 4
    Waiting On: GW2, TSW, Archeage, The Rapture

  • TheHatterTheHatter None, ARPosts: 2,547Member

    Most games don't break the 1mil mark. Very few games that aren't WoW, actually have.

    So, by this inaccurate thread, 99% of the MMOs on the market fit at least 12 of your 15 niche groups, just by that tiny bit of info alone.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    image

    A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15.

     

    Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.

  • laokokolaokoko TaipeiPosts: 2,003Member

    Originally posted by TheHatter

    A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15. 

    Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.

     I think he mean 11.5/(2^15).

    you start at 11.5m and keep dividing by 2 15 times

  • MMOExposedMMOExposed lalal land, DCPosts: 6,257Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by laokoko

    Originally posted by TheHatter

    A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15. 

    Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.

     I think he mean 11.5/(2^15).

    you start at 11.5m and keep dividing by 2 15 times

    yes this is what I meant.

     

    Try it. It works

    image

  • GTwanderGTwander San Diego, CAPosts: 6,035Member

    Originally posted by GTwander

    It doesn't work.

    Writer / Musician / Game Designer

    Now Playing: Skyrim, Wurm Online, Tropico 4
    Waiting On: GW2, TSW, Archeage, The Rapture

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick WonderlandPosts: 7,619Member

    Heh. I'm sorry, I'm usually using tea leaves and weather patterns to predict the max sub numbers.

    That is, whenever my crystal ball is still out of juice; I usually need to make a trip to Hogwarts to recharge it.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • twruletwrule Daly City, CAPosts: 1,251Member

    That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

  • TheHatterTheHatter None, ARPosts: 2,547Member

    Originally posted by laokoko

    Originally posted by TheHatter

    A game is also lucky to make 760k active subs..... which is 11.5/15. 

    Should I also mention that WoW's not currently at 11.5 and that figure is almost 2yrs old? Yeah........................ that too. It's on Blizz's press site.

     I think he mean 11.5/(2^15).

    you start at 11.5m and keep dividing by 2 15 times

    w/e not the point.

    Cyphers and twrule hit the nail on the head.

  • WaldoeWaldoe allentown, PAPosts: 624Member

    LOL ok so what happens to all the people not playing WoW (which has no where near 11.5 million players anymore) and people simply not playing MMOs until the new one they want is out?

     

    Yeah great formula.

  • MMOExposedMMOExposed lalal land, DCPosts: 6,257Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by twrule

    That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

    oh really?

    /roll eyes  jk lol

    But still it works 99% of the time.

    Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works

    image

  • MMOExposedMMOExposed lalal land, DCPosts: 6,257Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Waldoe

    LOL ok so what happens to all the people not playing WoW (which has no where near 11.5 million players anymore) and people simply not playing MMOs until the new one they want is out?

     

    Yeah great formula.

    Hi

    Hi

    Hi

    Blizzard last Sub Number statement was when they were dicussion the issues they having in China.

    They stated WoW only grew by a small percentage compared to TBC because of the Prevention of WoTLK X-pac in China.

     

    (Guess you didnt know, but China players still can play TBC from their server)

     

    Blizzard stated that WoW Subs are 11.5 Million in Late 2009

     

    So Cya, whine elsewhere

    image

  • HedeonHedeon GraestedPosts: 954Member Uncommon

    hmm how do your formula fit with facebook games

  • WaldoeWaldoe allentown, PAPosts: 624Member

    Originally posted by MMOExposed

    Originally posted by Waldoe

    LOL ok so what happens to all the people not playing WoW (which has no where near 11.5 million players anymore) and people simply not playing MMOs until the new one they want is out?

     

    Yeah great formula.

    Hi

    Hi

    Hi

    Blizzard last Sub Number statement was when they were dicussion the issues they having in China.

    They stated WoW only grew by a small percentage compared to TBC because of the Prevention of WoTLK X-pac in China.

     

    (Guess you didnt know, but China players still can play TBC from their server)

     

    Blizzard stated that WoW Subs are 11.5 Million in Late 2009

     

    So Cya, whine elsewhere

    LOL you didnt mention anything about the other part of my comment because you know your a troll WoW fanboy.

    Late 2009 isnt 2010. That 11.5 mil figure is way old dude. You link something that says otherwise.

  • laokokolaokoko TaipeiPosts: 2,003Member

    why do we have to do the work.  You start out the thread.

    Take some of the most popular MMO on the market now and show us if your formula is accurate.

    And tell us your perdiction on upcoming MMO's because I surely won't take my time to prove how inaccurate your sily formula is.

  • ladyattisladyattis Wichita, KSPosts: 1,273Member

    Also, where's the proof for this algorithm? Any mathematical induction done? What about edge cases? Does this follow more from Topus Theory or it doesn't violate Godel's Incompleteness Theorem?

  • twruletwrule Daly City, CAPosts: 1,251Member

    Originally posted by MMOExposed

    Originally posted by twrule

    That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

    oh really?

    /roll eyes  jk lol

    But still it works 99% of the time.

    Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works

    Something tells me you haven't done the amount of necessary statistical testing to back up that claim.

    There's no way that this formula could act as a decent prediction model at all.  There are too many variables unaccounted for, and the assumptions it's based on are convoluted at best.  How would you even know if the results were accurate, nevermind that one of your factors (the niche one) is based on opinion?

  • MMOExposedMMOExposed lalal land, DCPosts: 6,257Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by twrule

    Originally posted by MMOExposed


    Originally posted by twrule

    That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

    oh really?

    /roll eyes  jk lol

    But still it works 99% of the time.

    Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works

    Something tells me you haven't done the amount of necessary statistical testing to back up that claim.

    There's no way that this formula could act as a decent prediction model at all.  There are too many variables unaccounted for, and the assumptions it's based on are convoluted at best.  How would you even know if the results were accurate, nevermind that one of your factors (the niche one) is based on opinion?

    Try it if you dont believe it.

    Use a current game like DF or MO

    something like that.

    image

  • laokokolaokoko TaipeiPosts: 2,003Member

    Actually the formula works quite well.  It's the part where he says "max" possible subscription number.

    the important words is "max".  The reality is the actual subscriber number usually come out much lower than the formula outcome. 

    For example the formula might come out with a max subscription number of 700k, when all the games that fit into that subgeneral dont' break 300k.  The main point is the upper bound is so high so offcourse it's not breakable.

    Social games dont' fit the catergory though, games like club penguins or second life break that formula.

  • twruletwrule Daly City, CAPosts: 1,251Member

    Originally posted by MMOExposed

    Originally posted by twrule


    Originally posted by MMOExposed


    Originally posted by twrule

    That formula is based on nothing grounded in reason, and any fleeting correlation it may have to reality is purely coincidental, I assure you.

    oh really?

    /roll eyes  jk lol

    But still it works 99% of the time.

    Try it, even if it is coincidental. It works

    Something tells me you haven't done the amount of necessary statistical testing to back up that claim.

    There's no way that this formula could act as a decent prediction model at all.  There are too many variables unaccounted for, and the assumptions it's based on are convoluted at best.  How would you even know if the results were accurate, nevermind that one of your factors (the niche one) is based on opinion?

    Try it if you dont believe it.

    Use a current game like DF or MO

    something like that.

    You're missing the point.  I don't need to try it because it makes no sense.

  • GoldknyghtGoldknyght Dallas, TXPosts: 1,526Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by MMOExposed

    If you remember, I made a thread discussing the niche groups of the MMORPG genre.



    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/282112/page/1



    Well. Here is how to predict the Max Possible Subs Numbers a upcoming MMO can get, before it even comes out.



    1) Start at WoW's total Subs (11.5 Million right now)

    2) Divide by 2 for each niche group the game  fits in, listed on the link above.

    3) End Result is the max possible subs that game will have. (Things such as Bugs and Fail Hype, lower it down even feather, but these steps are for predicting the max Possible Sub numbers.)

     

     

    Try it

     

    Note: Charts change, as WoW Numbers rise each year. Which is why first step is important.

     isnt that 3 steps?

    and there will be a new MMO that beats WoW, Its not going to rain king forever. So ur math is flawed by having people base there numbers off WoW.

  • GTwanderGTwander San Diego, CAPosts: 6,035Member

    Originally posted by laokoko

    Actually the formula works quite well.  It's the part where he says "max" possible subscription number.

    the important words is "max".  The reality is the actual subscriber number usually come out much lower than the formula outcome. 

    For example the formula might come out with a max subscription number of 700k, when all the games that fit into that subgeneral dont' break 300k.

    Social games dont' fit the catergory though, games like club penguins or second life break that formula.

    That's kinda dumb, because every game is bound to come *under* that projection.

    Writer / Musician / Game Designer

    Now Playing: Skyrim, Wurm Online, Tropico 4
    Waiting On: GW2, TSW, Archeage, The Rapture

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick WonderlandPosts: 7,619Member

    Originally posted by TheHatter

    w/e not the point.

    Cyphers and twrule hit the nail on the head.

    Yes, sometimes I even use the crystal ball to hit nails into the wall when I can't find the hammer. It's a very sturdy crystal ball.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick WonderlandPosts: 7,619Member

    Originally posted by Hedeon

    hmm how do your formula fit with facebook games

    Good point. Actually I think that Farmville should be used as point of reference since that MMO game has the most players.

    Additional questions could be added like

    'Does the game have leveling progression?'  and

    'Is the endgame focused upon endless raiding and gear grinding?'

     

    But, I'm not the OP, so I will leave it up to him what fuzzy logic and base should be used for the golden formula.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • MMOExposedMMOExposed lalal land, DCPosts: 6,257Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by GTwander

    Originally posted by laokoko

    Actually the formula works quite well.  It's the part where he says "max" possible subscription number.

    the important words is "max".  The reality is the actual subscriber number usually come out much lower than the formula outcome. 

    For example the formula might come out with a max subscription number of 700k, when all the games that fit into that subgeneral dont' break 300k.

    Social games dont' fit the catergory though, games like club penguins or second life break that formula.

    That's kinda dumb, because every game is bound to come *under* that projection.

    Well thats my point.

     

    WoW is the only game that doesnt fit these niche groups, yet is also happen to be the only MMO with 11.5 Million subs

    image

  • TheHatterTheHatter None, ARPosts: 2,547Member

    Originally posted by MMOExposed

    Originally posted by GTwander


    Originally posted by laokoko

    Actually the formula works quite well.  It's the part where he says "max" possible subscription number.

    the important words is "max".  The reality is the actual subscriber number usually come out much lower than the formula outcome. 

    For example the formula might come out with a max subscription number of 700k, when all the games that fit into that subgeneral dont' break 300k.

    Social games dont' fit the catergory though, games like club penguins or second life break that formula.

    That's kinda dumb, because every game is bound to come *under* that projection.

    Well thats my point.

     

    WoW is the only game that doesnt fit these niche groups, yet is also happen to be the only MMO with 11.5 Million subs

    Yeah, because WoW doesn't have loading screens between zones and doesn't force you to group to get any sort of decent gear in the endgame. (WoW is an endgame centric game)

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