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If you remember, I made a thread discussing the niche groups of the MMORPG genre.
Well. Here is how to predict the Max Possible Subs Numbers a upcoming MMO can get, before it even comes out.
1) Start at WoW's total Subs (11.5 Million right now)
2) Divide by 2 for each niche group the game fits in, listed on the link above.
3) End Result is the max possible subs that game will have. (Things such as Bugs and Fail Hype, lower it down even feather, but these steps are for predicting the max Possible Sub numbers.)
Note: Charts change, as WoW Numbers rise each year. Which is why first step is important.