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General: Avoiding the Elephant

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  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945

    Originally posted by cyphers

    Originally posted by fyerwall

    There is a reason Blizard only really release sub numbers after an expansion and thats because thats when they see their peak numbers. Ever notice how they never bothered to give player numbers when China banned WoW for those 6+ months?

     

    I don't wonder. China consists of 5-6 million subs right now, that's about half or more of the current 11,5 million subs all over. Subs in China are rising, subs elsewhere are decreasing.

    But Blizzard isn't unique in this, painting a bright image, that's common for MMO companies (or maybe game companies in general).

    I've never really believed the comments of 5-6 million players in China, because it has never left any subscriber room for players in any region other than NA/Europe and China.  None for Korea, japan or any other country in the asian market.

    People seem to have read the subscription comments by blizzard that stated Asia and somehow translated that into China.  If you have a source for this information please share it. 

     

    If subs were growing so fast in China, but shrinking in NA/Europe then servers would be merging.  At the very least sales of warcraft would have dropped off the top ten best selling software list, which they have not.   Not that I can even understand how subs in China could be growing with all the service interuptions that have been going on.  

    Honestly for all we know the subscription numbers in China have tanked, but the rest of the world is growing.  There just isn't enough information to know right now. 

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    It's true, it's always guesswork, MMO companies have become more and more elusive with actual numbers.

    6 million was the number going around in a number of WoW forumthreads and blogs. But that doesn't say that much.

     

    An article analysis that seems to be more concrete is this one: Blizzard's WoW: The China growth story,

    in which the author guesstimates the number to be around 5.5 million.

    Also an indication is the site of The9, the Chinese WoW provider, where they talk about something like 5 million in 2009: look here

     

    That would leave 5.5-6 million outside of China.

    How many that means that are around in the other countries is hard to say, but Activision Blizzard stated that WoW was growing the most in China, and in 2008 it was 2 million in Europe and 2.5 million in North America according to wikipedia.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945

    Originally posted by cyphers

    It's true, it's always guesswork, MMO companies have become more and more elusive with actual numbers.

    6 million was the number going around in a number of WoW forumthreads and blogs. But that doesn't say that much.

     

    An article analysis that seems to be more concrete is this one: Blizzard's WoW: The China growth story,

    in which the author guesstimates the number to be around 5.5 million.

    Also an indication is the site of The9, the Chinese WoW provider, where they talk about something like 5 million in 2009: look here

     

    That would leave 5.5-6 million outside of China.

    How many that means that are around in the other countries is hard to say, but Activision Blizzard stated that WoW was growing the most in China, and in 2008 it was 2 million in Europe and 2.5 million in North America according to wikipedia.

    The theorycrafting that is done on that blog runs under the assumption that anyone not in NA/EU must be from China.  It is sloppy napkin math dressed up to look like it makes some sort of sense, which it really doesn't.  Perhaps The9 did have 5 million players, I don't know.  Maybe wow lost 2 or those 5 million players during the contract switch and the severs being shut down, but has been steadily growing faster once they reopened, which would make it the fastest growing market for wow... again. 

    If China is experiencing massive growth and the western market is declining and the overall number of subscribers has remained the same (as cited by the ceo? of the company in a stock holders meeting), then the games revenue should be decreasing.  However it has seen growth from year to year and still continues to do so.  I don't see how it could be possible for higher paying subscriber numbers be on the decline, lower paying subscriber numbers growing and the result is increased revenue.

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    The theorycrafting that is done on that blog runs under the assumption that anyone not in NA/EU must be from China.  It is sloppy napkin math dressed up to look like it makes some sort of sense, which it really doesn't. 

    Maybe it is, but you can only state that if you have better proof: do you have links or analysis to base your statements upon?

    If what you're saying is true, and the numbers in other countries with a regular sub fee would be higher, also the revenue Blizzard gets would be higher than they publicized. And nowhere did I or the article say that there are only subs in EU, US and China, merely how many there were probably in China and what that left for the rest of the world of that 11.5 million.

     

    Like I already said, it all remains guesswork, but the overall guesses on WoW forums and blogs circling around mentioning 6 million, other sources like this article, the source articles behind the wikipedia comments, and the Chinese provider themselves talking about 5 million, makes more of a valid impression to me than just some people saying 'nuh-uh, that's too vague and  cannot be true, because my gut is telling me that ain't true'.

     

    But, of course, you can believe what you feel comfortable to believe, that's your right. I merely presented the arguments why I made the statements that I did.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • montinmontin Member Posts: 218

    I really thought that piece was going to go somewhere, rather than pointless rambling. Just a shame I cant get back the few minutes of my life that was wasted reading it. Bit like the life I and countless others have wasted playing WoW. As for the elephant, hopefully somebody will shoot it for it's tusks.

  • dstyle711dstyle711 Member UncommonPosts: 3

    IMO WoW is so popular because it is polished.... people didn't like AoC because of all the broken mechanics and bugs. Another reason why people like WoW is because its like gambling. For example slot machines.. you don't know if your going to win right? So when you raid or do dungeons its like gambling. Your item may or may not drop and then even if it does you may or may not win it. Why do you think casino's are so profitable because it presents the idea of winning but doesn't guarantee it just like wow does on their loot system.

  • RohnRohn Member UncommonPosts: 3,730

    Not a good article.

    Beyond some fairly pointless cheerleading for some other games to remove the focus from WoW, there wasn't much substance.

    In my view, plenty of developers HAVE been trying to make games worthy of being talked about.  Instead of the elephant that is WoW, they have created games more akin to jackalopes, two-headed snakes, and naked mole rats.  People have talked about them, while simultaneously tearing them down.

    Nothing I've seen recently makes me think that other new games are going to fare any better.  The MMO community is not homogeneous, though each subset of that community individually attempts to portray it as such.  Each subset also often deigns to speak as the "authoritative, unified voice" for the MMO community as a whole.

    When the balance of the MMO community begins to develop a more sophisticated worldview, I believe the perspective on new games will improve.  Right now, given the MMO environment, a company would really have to be nuts to sink a lot of money and time attempting to please a schizophrenic community.

    Hell hath no fury like an MMORPG player scorned.

  • stem589stem589 Member Posts: 1

    I can’t even count the times I’ve left WoW and returned. Sometimes I left out of frustration of the game and more time than not, out of shear boredom. What drew me back each and every time wasn’t WoW itself, but Guild members that hadn’t left.


     


    I think I’ve played/tested near to every MMO that’s released in the past 6yrs. Some better than others but none with enough draw to pull some players away from their ‘time invested’ in WoW.


     


    One major advantage WoW has is that it’s extremely accessible. Computers near to 10yrs old can run it smoothly. Games like AoC are left dead on the shelf by those that don’t meet the system requirements. Lets be honest here too……. if you want to be competitive in any element of an MMO (PvP particularly), you need to do better than the minimum requirements.

  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945

    Originally posted by cyphers

    Originally posted by Daffid011



    The theorycrafting that is done on that blog runs under the assumption that anyone not in NA/EU must be from China.  It is sloppy napkin math dressed up to look like it makes some sort of sense, which it really doesn't. 

    Maybe it is, but you can only state that if you have better proof: do you have links or analysis to base your statements upon?

    If what you're saying is true, and the numbers in other countries with a regular sub fee would be higher, also the revenue Blizzard gets would be higher than they publicized. And nowhere did I or the article say that there are only subs in EU, US and China, merely how many there were probably in China and what that left for the rest of the world of that 11.5 million.

     

    Like I already said, it all remains guesswork, but the overall guesses on WoW forums and blogs circling around mentioning 6 million, other sources like this article, the source articles behind the wikipedia comments, and the Chinese provider themselves talking about 5 million, makes more of a valid impression to me than just some people saying 'nuh-uh, that's too vague and  cannot be true, because my gut is telling me that ain't true'.

     

    But, of course, you can believe what you feel comfortable to believe, that's your right. I merely presented the arguments why I made the statements that I did.

    Basing math off 14.95 a month is just a sloppy way to determine sub figures, because there are different pricing models in different regions and different currencies with exchange rates.  For example, do we even know what players in Korea pay?  Monthly fee?  Per minute?  Time card?  The blog you cite assumes anyone not in China must be paying 14.95 a month.  See the failure in that logic?

    Here is a link to a realm list for blizzard server locations.  While not official it can give you a good idea of the bulk of their servers are located.  LINK

    According to that list here is the breakdown. 

    US - 241 servers

    Europe - 245 servers

    Russia - 19 servers

    Latin America - 3 servers

    Taiwan - 39 servers

    Korea - 54 servers

    China - 178 servers

     

    North America + Europe = 486 servers (62.5%)

    China = 178 servers (22.8%)

    Rest of Asia/World = 115 servers (14.7%)

     

    As I have said, everyone is assuming that if you do not play on a server in NA/EU you must play in China.  This all stems back from the 10 million subscriber announcement where that you also referenced.  Please note how it says ASIA and not China. 

    2 million subscribers in Europe, more than 2.5 million in North America, and approximately 5.5 million in Asia

     

    The problem with the 5-6 million number for China is that it is hard to make those numbers work for that area with little or nothing left to account for the rest of Asia.  

     

  • DevilXaphanDevilXaphan Member UncommonPosts: 1,144

    Really can't apply a monthly fee to the asian market as most of us in NA/EU pay for. China, Korea and Tiawan players mostly play on internet cafes which only charge by the number of minutes or hours played so the monthly fee is out all together.

    The elephant can never be ignored nor beaten at this time because of the timing it was born. Besides in WOW's humble beginings it was talked about negatively for many months before it was out as well as after.

    No matter what people think or say WOW has cemented itself in gaming history as a titan among many.

    image
  • fyerwallfyerwall Member UncommonPosts: 3,240

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    Originally posted by cyphers

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    The theorycrafting that is done on that blog runs under the assumption that anyone not in NA/EU must be from China.  It is sloppy napkin math dressed up to look like it makes some sort of sense, which it really doesn't. 

    Maybe it is, but you can only state that if you have better proof: do you have links or analysis to base your statements upon?

    If what you're saying is true, and the numbers in other countries with a regular sub fee would be higher, also the revenue Blizzard gets would be higher than they publicized. And nowhere did I or the article say that there are only subs in EU, US and China, merely how many there were probably in China and what that left for the rest of the world of that 11.5 million.

     

    Like I already said, it all remains guesswork, but the overall guesses on WoW forums and blogs circling around mentioning 6 million, other sources like this article, the source articles behind the wikipedia comments, and the Chinese provider themselves talking about 5 million, makes more of a valid impression to me than just some people saying 'nuh-uh, that's too vague and  cannot be true, because my gut is telling me that ain't true'.

     

    But, of course, you can believe what you feel comfortable to believe, that's your right. I merely presented the arguments why I made the statements that I did.

    Basing math off 14.95 a month is just a sloppy way to determine sub figures, because there are different pricing models in different regions and different currencies with exchange rates.  For example, do we even know what players in Korea pay?  Monthly fee?  Per minute?  Time card?  The blog you cite assumes anyone not in China must be paying 14.95 a month.  See the failure in that logic?

    Here is a link to a realm list for blizzard server locations.  While not official it can give you a good idea of the bulk of their servers are located.  LINK

    According to that list here is the breakdown. 

    US - 241 servers

    Europe - 245 servers

    Russia - 19 servers

    Latin America - 3 servers

    Taiwan - 39 servers

    Korea - 54 servers

    China - 178 servers

     

    North America + Europe = 486 servers (62.5%)

    China = 178 servers (22.8%)

    Rest of Asia/World = 115 servers (14.7%)

     

    As I have said, everyone is assuming that if you do not play on a server in NA/EU you must play in China.  This all stems back from the 10 million subscriber announcement where that you also referenced.  Please note how it says ASIA and not China. 

    2 million subscribers in Europe, more than 2.5 million in North America, and approximately 5.5 million in Asia

     

    The problem with the 5-6 million number for China is that it is hard to make those numbers work for that area with little or nothing left to account for the rest of Asia.  

     

     Koreans I believe also pay on a per usage basis. And as with chinese players I believe they also face some government imposed time restrictions. I could be wrong though.

    But with such payment models and limits on connection time there is also less need of servers. While in the west people like you and I who pay a monthly fee for access can take full advantage of said access and play 24/7 if we so wished. With this you have more people on a server at one time than you do in the China/Asian markets, hence less need of servers. You also have asian players who prefer and do play on the NA/EU servers rather than on their own regional servers (China had an issue with people playing WoW even while the game was banned in the country).

    There are 3 types of people in the world.
    1.) Those who make things happen
    2.) Those who watch things happen
    3.) And those who wonder "What the %#*& just happened?!"


  • JoarnajJoarnaj Member Posts: 258

    "Its Cataclysm is not so cataclysmic; in fact, it's mostly a rebalancing of current game mechanics that have been in place for a year or more."

    Huh? Actually, WoW's Cataclysm is a reworking of mechanics, raising of the level cap, new talent trees, new spells, new playable races, new race/class combos, all new playable zones, a complete reworking of many of the old zones with all new low-level content, new high-end content and raids, all new graphics throughout Azeroth (bringing it to the levels we've come to expect from games released recently) and probably a lot more that I'm forgetting or am not aware of yet. It almost sounds like they truly are releasing "WoW II."

    I'm a bit bored with WoW and have spent a lot of time in the last 18 months searching for a great game to replace it. With Cataclysm promising to be the best thing to happen to WoW since launch, maybe the game to replace WoW will be... well...  WoW.

    I was pleasantly surprised when I went from Apprentice to full 5 star Elite in under 2 months. I was pleasantly surprised again when I went from Elite to just barely Hardcore in 2 weeks. Apprentice, here I come!

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    Basing math off 14.95 a month is just a sloppy way to determine sub figures, because there are different pricing models in different regions and different currencies with exchange rates.  For example, do we even know what players in Korea pay?  Monthly fee?  Per minute?  Time card?  The blog you cite assumes anyone not in China must be paying 14.95 a month.  See the failure in that logic?

    Here is a link to a realm list for blizzard server locations.  While not official it can give you a good idea of the bulk of their servers are located.  LINK

    According to that list here is the breakdown. 

    US - 241 servers

    Europe - 245 servers

    Russia - 19 servers

    Latin America - 3 servers

    Taiwan - 39 servers

    Korea - 54 servers

    China - 178 servers

     

    North America + Europe = 486 servers (62.5%)

    China = 178 servers (22.8%)

    Rest of Asia/World = 115 servers (14.7%)

     

    As I have said, everyone is assuming that if you do not play on a server in NA/EU you must play in China.  This all stems back from the 10 million subscriber announcement where that you also referenced.  Please note how it says ASIA and not China. 

    2 million subscribers in Europe, more than 2.5 million in North America, and approximately 5.5 million in Asia

     

    The problem with the 5-6 million number for China is that it is hard to make those numbers work for that area with little or nothing left to account for the rest of Asia.  

     

     

    Ah, thank you, I can always appreciate it when people don't just say something but can back it up with facts or links :-)  (however hard that may be sometimes)

     

    But as an added commentary:

    - the 2 mil EU and 2.5 mil US stems from beginning 2008, the 5 mil from the (former) Chinese provider stems from 2009, and the Chinese growth article from march this year.

     

    - You proved even more the point, saying that "assuming that anyone not in China must be paying 14.95 a month is a failure in logic". Which is true, I can't imagine a lot of people paying more, but I can certainly imagine a lot of people paying less (indeed, like Koreans with a different sub model).

    Even the article mentions it, that you can't base it upon 14-15$:

    " Even after averaging the monthly fee down to roughly $14 after taking into account that some subscribers pick the cheaper $13.99 plan by paying for three months at a time or the $12.99 plan by paying for 6 months upfront, the expected revenue drops to,

    $14 X 12 months X 11.5 million subscribers = $1.93 billion.

    This is significantly higher than the $1.2 billion in revenue the entire Blizzard division reported for 2009."

    Those are the limiting factors:

    - the 1.2 billion entire 2009 revenue of Blizzard (incl legacy sales etc) 

    - the 11.5 million subs stated.

     

    Let's say when you subtract the Korean, Chinese and other cheap subs, including all other products Blizzard gets revenue from, that 1 billion remains:

    - if you have more than 6-6.5 million subs in US+EU+ non-China/Korean countries, based upon an avg 13 $ per month, then that revenue would be more than the 1.2 billion Blizzard reported. Any more than 6-6.5 million EU+US+ other non-cheap subs, and that revenue would surpass the 1.2 billion.

    That is, under the condition that the total revenue of the remaining 5-5 million "cheaper" subs together with other Blizzard products doesn't surpass the 200 million.

    In all likelyhood, the revenu from the cheap subs is higher, also Europeans pay more bc of the euro, meaning that more revenue is generated by cheap subs as the China/Korea ones, and that with less regular subs that limit of 900 mil-1 billion can be reached.

    I don't know for sure if it was in a Gamasutra article, but it was stated that 5 mil subs came from China, 6.5 mil from overall Asia, which makes sense, considering the revenue Blizzard got in 2009. That leaves 5 mil subs tops for the rest of the world.

    Which is still a lot, no doubt about it. But they were lucky the deal with China went through, because that's where their major growth is now as Blizzard stated, and since the number of 11.5 million subs from end of 2008 is the same as the number they stated end of 2009, that means that growth in China means decrease in other countries.

     

    Or in short: the growth in China camouflages the decrease in subs in other countries.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945

    Originally posted by cyphers

    - if you have more than 6-6.5 million subs in US+EU+ non-China/Korean countries, based upon an avg 13 $ per month, then that revenue would be more than the 1.2 billion Blizzard reported. Any more than 6-6.5 million EU+US+ other non-cheap subs, and that revenue would surpass the 1.2 billion.

    <>

    Or in short: the growth in China camouflages the decrease in subs in other countries.

    Where do you get $13 average for 6-6.5 million people from?  That seems to be pulling random numbers out of thin air and applying them to get a desired results.  We have little idea how much the eastern market pays, so it is at best a giant unknown.

     

    Here is what we do know.

    1) Total subscriber numbers have remained steady at around 11.5 million since the release of lich king

    2) Revenue for blizzard has gone up from year to year.  

    3) Blizzard was not receiving revenue for a good portion of 2009 from China, because their ability to conduct business there was shut down. 

     

    So I am still confused how replacing $15/month players with players who pay much less on a 1:1 ration can result in an overall increase in revenue.  Especially when those players were effectively unable to be customers for a large portion of the year.

    If anything, this suggests that the players who are paying more per month have increased to not only offset, but improve upon the revenue that was lost when the servers in China went offline for months at a time.  I know that is crazy talk for this site, but how else can it be explained?

  • fyerwallfyerwall Member UncommonPosts: 3,240

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    Originally posted by cyphers

    - if you have more than 6-6.5 million subs in US+EU+ non-China/Korean countries, based upon an avg 13 $ per month, then that revenue would be more than the 1.2 billion Blizzard reported. Any more than 6-6.5 million EU+US+ other non-cheap subs, and that revenue would surpass the 1.2 billion.

    <>

    Or in short: the growth in China camouflages the decrease in subs in other countries.

    Where do you get $13 average for 6-6.5 million people from?  That seems to be pulling random numbers out of thin air and applying them to get a desired results.  We have little idea how much the eastern market pays, so it is at best a giant unknown.

     

    Here is what we do know.

    1) Total subscriber numbers have remained steady at around 11.5 million since the release of lich king

    2) Revenue for blizzard has gone up from year to year.  

    3) Blizzard was not receiving revenue for a good portion of 2009 from China, because their ability to conduct business there was shut down. 

     

    So I am still confused how replacing $15/month players with players who pay much less on a 1:1 ration can result in an overall increase in revenue.  Especially when those players were effectively unable to be customers for a large portion of the year.

    If anything, this suggests that the players who are paying more per month have increased to not only offset, but improve upon the revenue that was lost when the servers in China went offline for months at a time.  I know that is crazy talk for this site, but how else can it be explained?

     The revenue wasnt just from WoW. The over all revenue is from all Blizzard products (games such as StarCraft which still sells to this day, Warcraft, the WoW Trading cards, the pets for sale via the Blizzard store, the merchandise sold via the Blizzard store, etc) and what ever else Blizzard sells.

    Basically the cost of losing those 5-6 million players in China would only really hurt subscription numbers but not really effect revenue. factor in the fact that they have to split that profit with the hosting company and any other fees that apply and it effects the overall revenue by even less. Because that loss can easily be made up for by selling else, such as the pets or now the $25 pony.

    There are 3 types of people in the world.
    1.) Those who make things happen
    2.) Those who watch things happen
    3.) And those who wonder "What the %#*& just happened?!"


  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Lol. This discussion is extending into way too many posts, especially considering this thread subject image, but here we go.

     

    This is what we (also) know:

    - revenue of Blizzard in 2009 is 1.2 billion.

    - 13 $ was the lowest US sub fee the article mentioned, based upon ppl that had 6-month subs. So the number was based upon the lowest regular fee possible. But not everyone has 6-month subs, and Europeans have 14.5 dollars sub as cheapest.

     

    Meaning: you only need 5-6 million regular subs as used in the US and EU (and some other countries) to achieve the revenue that Blizzard mentioned they gained for 2009. It cannot be more subs in those countries because Blizzard didnt get more revenue that year.

    Even more,  it'll probably be less subs in EU-US-other regular fee countries (ie not China, not Korea) combined, because the revenue generated by other Blizzard products and China/Korea will have been more than 200 million.

     

    So I don't find it hard to believe that the Chinese provider mentioned that there were 5 mil Chinese subs, because in essence US+EU+other regular fee countries could never have had more than like 5-5.5 mil subs in 2009, looking at the revenue that Blizzard got in 2009.

     

    And what Fyerwall says is true. Even if China would be scrapped bc of regulations in China, it would only mean a significant decrease in subs numbers, not in revenue. Half 2009 the revenue from China was estimated to become merely something like 140 mil for that year.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945

    @ Fyerwall

    I understand that the revenue isn't just from wow, but looking at the last year of revenue coming from a time where blizzard did not have a new game box for sale compared to the previous 12 months (which did have a new game box for sale) where do you think the increases come from?  A sudden rush of 10 year old game sales?  A few pets that sold maybe a few million in revenue seeing blizzard donated half of the revenue and I think it was 1 million bucks.  (ponies are not even accounted for yet since they just happened the other week). 

    The last 4 reported quarters have seen steady increases over their previous year quarter and they had no new game box sales to rely upon for quick incection of revenue. 

     

    So again I pose the question, how can a decrease in more lucrative subscribers be represented by 1:1 replacement of subscribers that pay less and who did not even have full access to the product for long periods of time? 

    How can it be possible for the western market to have a noticable decline in the west while the other 50% of blizzards customers in the east are denied access to the product for a large portion of the entire year and come out on top of all that with steady increases in revenue?

     

    @ Cypher

    Again, where is the validity of just picking $13/month?  Or even assuming that his numbers for China are right?  For all we know blizzard has the same exact payment modle for korea, taiwan, russia, etc.  They only get 6 cents an hour there and have to split that with their partners in those respective countries. 

    That entire article is filled with baseless speculation and fabricating numbers just to make a conclusion that is completely dismissive of large portions of the world that blizzard operates in.  The holes in his logic are so large you could drive all the servers from Korea through it.  

     

    As for the9's claim of 5 million users.  The only record I find about concurrent users is the 1 million mark being breached in 2008.   Most developers claim roughly 20% of their user base is online during primetime, which casts doubts on their 5 million claims.  Beyond that, if I can find the link where blizzard talks about how difficult it was to count asian subscribers due to their payment methods (they buy time cards which are treated as seperate accounts, so each player can be counted muliple times) it would cast further doubt on the 5 million actually being 5 million unique accounts.

  • fyerwallfyerwall Member UncommonPosts: 3,240

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    @ Fyerwall

    I understand that the revenue isn't just from wow, but looking at the last year of revenue coming from a time where blizzard did not have a new game box for sale compared to the previous 12 months (which did have a new game box for sale) where do you think the increases come from?  A sudden rush of 10 year old game sales?  A few pets that sold maybe a few million in revenue seeing blizzard donated half of the revenue and I think it was 1 million bucks.  (ponies are not even accounted for yet since they just happened the other week). 

    The last 4 reported quarters have seen steady increases over their previous year quarter and they had no new game box sales to rely upon for quick incection of revenue. 

     

    So again I pose the question, how can a decrease in more lucrative subscribers be represented by 1:1 replacement of subscribers that pay less and who did not even have full access to the product for long periods of time? 

    How can it be possible for the western market to have a noticable decline in the west while the other 50% of blizzards customers in the east are denied access to the product for a large portion of the entire year and come out on top of all that with steady increases in revenue?

     

    @ Cypher

    Again, where is the validity of just picking $13/month?  Or even assuming that his numbers for China are right?  For all we know blizzard has the same exact payment modle for korea, taiwan, russia, etc.  They only get 6 cents an hour there and have to split that with their partners in those respective countries. 

    That entire article is filled with baseless speculation and fabricating numbers just to make a conclusion that is completely dismissive of large portions of the world that blizzard operates in.  The holes in his logic are so large you could drive all the servers from Korea through it.  

     

    As for the9's claim of 5 million users.  The only record I find about concurrent users is the 1 million mark being breached in 2008.   Most developers claim roughly 20% of their user base is online during primetime, which casts doubts on their 5 million claims.  Beyond that, if I can find the link where blizzard talks about how difficult it was to count asian subscribers due to their payment methods (they buy time cards which are treated as seperate accounts, so each player can be counted muliple times) it would cast further doubt on the 5 million actually being 5 million unique accounts.

     You are looking past or even disreguarding a lot of income the west provided for Blizzard. Even if they didn't have a new title on the market they still have box sales. When a new Western player gets into the game they end up paying for each expansion + the base game. That one new western player has just contributed to the revenue that around maybe 20 chinese players would have. Even if they didn't stick around more than 3 months that is still money added to, not subtracted from, the revenue total. Nowhere is anyone stating that NA/EU subscriptions are plummeting. What people are stating is that a majority of the subscriptions are from another country and that they only really account for the overall subscription number and not so much for the revenue the company brings in.

    In essence We bring in the money and China pads the subscription numbers. If we were to only go by the NA/EU subscription model (the $15 US or -insert EU equiv here-) those subscription numbers would be at almost less than half of 11.5 million (around 4.5 to 5 million or even less considering we don't have a base for the rest of asia), which in itself is still nothing to sneeze at. But still, it kinda shrinks the elephant just a bit more.

    Aslo when taking in the whole Blizzard store and what it sells (not counting the ingame items such as pets, but everything else) that also adds to the revenue. Look at the sales of Authenticators, Tshirts and anything else that sold there. If the whole 10cents per hour number is true to what a chinese player pays for access, then at the average of 25 hours a month a chinese player pays $2.50. An Authenticator pretty much covers the loss of two chinese players for a month.

    And the 2 pets in the Blizzard store, even with half the rev going to charity thats still a lot of money covering the loss and the number that they posted was the sales as of a certain period. That pet still sells today. Also add in the money made off Blizcon, the licensing of the WoW name to companies like Pepsi (Gamer fuel), the comic book to Wildstorm/DC, etc and you can see where the growth in revenue came from even with the loss of China for those few months.

     

    But back to the whole China payment model: Why can't we have that option? I wouldn't mind paying $2.50 (10 cents an hour) for a full 25 hours of play time.

    There are 3 types of people in the world.
    1.) Those who make things happen
    2.) Those who watch things happen
    3.) And those who wonder "What the %#*& just happened?!"


  • Daffid011Daffid011 Member UncommonPosts: 7,945

    Actually Cyphers said in post 131 that the subs in China are increasing while the rest of the world are decreasing.

    Also I fully agree with you that the western market is where blizzard makes its lion share of revenue.  Some have said China only represents roughly 10% of blizzards overall revenue and we all agree that their payment model generates much less than a western player.   That is why I don't think there has been a massive increase of players in China which would mean the rest of the higher paying world would be suffering a decrease. 

    Seeing that sub numbers remained constant from year to year, we can assume that new box sales would be steady for new players joining between the two years or at least not enough to massively impact revenues.  

    I think it is also safe to assume blizzard would make more revenue from box sales around their respective release time (over 4 quarters ago) seeing that they all break sales records of multimillion copies sold,something like 5 million the first month for lich king alone.  The last 4 quarters in no way could enjoy that type of extra revenue infusion unless we want to assume blizzard sold another 5 million copies, which would be almost enough to sell 2 copies for every player? 

    Tee shirts, authenticators(which I feel blizzard isn't selling for profit since it reduces their CSR costs) and various marketing doesn't seem any larger than it already was.  The cola deals and truck adds are all over a year old.  Who knows, maybe it is a lot, but still doubtful. 

    Overall I think we all know that subscription fees are the meat of blizzards revenue and it makes little sense to suggest they are replacing high value customers with low value customers who were unable to pay for over half a year and somehow ended up increasing the bottom line.

     

    imageSign me up for the .10/hour model also!

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    @ Fyerwall

    I understand that the revenue isn't just from wow, but looking at the last year of revenue coming from a time where blizzard did not have a new game box for sale compared to the previous 12 months (which did have a new game box for sale) where do you think the increases come from?  A sudden rush of 10 year old game sales?  A few pets that sold maybe a few million in revenue seeing blizzard donated half of the revenue and I think it was 1 million bucks.  (ponies are not even accounted for yet since they just happened the other week). 

    The last 4 reported quarters have seen steady increases over their previous year quarter and they had no new game box sales to rely upon for quick incection of revenue. 

     

    So again I pose the question, how can a decrease in more lucrative subscribers be represented by 1:1 replacement of subscribers that pay less and who did not even have full access to the product for long periods of time? 

    How can it be possible for the western market to have a noticable decline in the west while the other 50% of blizzards customers in the east are denied access to the product for a large portion of the entire year and come out on top of all that with steady increases in revenue?

     

    @ Cypher

    Again, where is the validity of just picking $13/month?  Like I alrdy said, it was the lowest amount of regular sub fee that was found. If you say that Americans pay less for their regular fee, show it. Europeans pay more btw (google it yourself)

    Or even assuming that his numbers for China are right?  The article mentions it if you can do the math, and the Chinese provider mentions 5 mil, next to 1 mil concurrent subs. Pls explain how subs can be less than 5 mil, these ppl are playing 12h/day continuously?

    Next to that, the statement that sub numbers in China were increasing while the total sub numbers were a constant 11.5 million from end of 2008 up to end of 2009 means that they are decreasing in other areas.

    For all we know blizzard has the same exact payment modle for korea, taiwan, russia, etc.  They only get 6 cents an hour there and have to split that with their partners in those respective countries. 

    That entire article is filled with baseless speculation and fabricating numbers just to make a conclusion that is completely dismissive of large portions of the world that blizzard operates in.  The holes in his logic are so large you could drive all the servers from Korea through it.  While you show hardly any logic at all, no calculations and conveniently neglects the points that you have no answer for. There cant be any more than 5-5.5 mil subs in the regular fee-countries (US+EU+others) bc Blizzard didnt make more than 1.2 billion in total in 2009, and there can be no more than 11.5 million subs in 2008 as well as 2009 bc Blizzard stated that.

     

    As for the9's claim of 5 million users.  The only record I find about concurrent users is the 1 million mark being breached in 2008.   Most developers claim roughly 20% of their user base is online during primetime, which casts doubts on their 5 million claims.  Well, we might as well dismiss Blizzard's claims of 11.5 mil subs while we're at it, eh? If 1 mil concurrent users and their own statement of 5 mil subs doesnt say anything that a couple of mils Chinese subs are around, we might as well cast everything in doubt, incl Blizzards statements (which isnt that strange a thought, they might have pimped their sub numbers) Beyond that, if I can find the link where blizzard talks about how difficult it was to count asian subscribers due to their payment methods (they buy time cards which are treated as seperate accounts, so each player can be counted muliple times) it would cast further doubt on the 5 million actually being 5 million unique accounts.



    This whole discussion is starting to bore me. I already mentioned that it is guesswork at best, but I provided several arguments for the numbers and the statements I made. If you cannot understand the calculations or do not want to believe the other articles or what other people are saying about it, then that is fine, that's your right.

    Only don't bother me with vague and moronic arguments, just because you are not willing to believe that sub numbers in EU+US+other regular fee countries cannot amount to more than 5-6 mil, that China has 5-6 mil subs, or that the subs in places as EU and US and such are decreasing while they are growing in China. If you dont want to believe while a whole lot of other people (with better analysis and calculations) do, then that's your right. Only don't waste my time with such foolishness.

     

    For the rest, like Fyerwall said.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • fyerwallfyerwall Member UncommonPosts: 3,240

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    Actually Cyphers said in post 131 that the subs in China are increasing while the rest of the world are decreasing.

    Also I fully agree with you that the western market is where blizzard makes its lion share of revenue.  Some have said China only represents roughly 10% of blizzards overall revenue and we all agree that their payment model generates much less than a western player.   That is why I don't think there has been a massive increase of players in China which would mean the rest of the higher paying world would be suffering a decrease. 

    Seeing that sub numbers remained constant from year to year, we can assume that new box sales would be steady for new players joining between the two years or at least not enough to massively impact revenues.  

    I think it is also safe to assume blizzard would make more revenue from box sales around their respective release time (over 4 quarters ago) seeing that they all break sales records of multimillion copies sold,something like 5 million the first month for lich king alone.  The last 4 quarters in no way could enjoy that type of extra revenue infusion unless we want to assume blizzard sold another 5 million copies, which would be almost enough to sell 2 copies for every player? 

    Tee shirts, authenticators(which I feel blizzard isn't selling for profit since it reduces their CSR costs) and various marketing doesn't seem any larger than it already was.  The cola deals and truck adds are all over a year old.  Who knows, maybe it is a lot, but still doubtful. 

    Overall I think we all know that subscription fees are the meat of blizzards revenue and it makes little sense to suggest they are replacing high value customers with low value customers who were unable to pay for over half a year and somehow ended up increasing the bottom line.

     

    imageSign me up for the .10/hour model also!

     Well see the Western market can be seeing a decrease in subscriptions but that as well can be off set by people who are buying the game for the first time. And then you have the people who buy multiple accounts. I mean it might not be a drastic amount of people bailing out, but I think its more along the lines of every 1.5 players who stops playing (1.5 meaning 1 person who quits and never comes back and the .5 is the player who takes 6+ months off), 1 player is just getting into the game.

    Each player who quits the game in the west is only a loss of $45 a quarter (or $180 a year). Each new player who joins is an instant infusion of about $80 + $15 a month. If that new player only sticks around maybe 6 months, they have paid about the same amount as the player who left would have paid for a full year. So basically subscriptions can keep dropping while the end profits keep rising. I think its also a reason Blizzard doesn't offer an All-In-One expansion option (save for the very limited Battle Chest edition which isnt really an all in one...)

    In my eyes I think the NA/EU market is holding steady at about 4 million players (about 2 million in the EU and 2 million in NA - give or take of course). If Blizzard were to suddenly lose the Asia/China market for WoW, I doubt their revenue would drop by too much. Now if they lost even just 2 million NA/EU players, thats when we would see a huge drop in profits.

    But when it comes down to subscription numbers, I want to see the numbers for just NA/EU who pay the monthly fee of $15 (or EU equiv) minus people like myself who have a lifetime subscription (because even if we dont play we ARE counted).

    There are 3 types of people in the world.
    1.) Those who make things happen
    2.) Those who watch things happen
    3.) And those who wonder "What the %#*& just happened?!"


  • utopiumutopium Member Posts: 103

    Originally posted by fyerwall

    Now if they lost even just 2 million NA/EU players, thats when we would see a huge drop in profits.

    Sorry for sidetracking the discussion, but would even an 80% drop in profits have any consequence for anyone except the shareholders? They've already made ridiculous money on the title, and it seems that practically none of it has been used to improve the actual product. They've already done so much to maximize profits, that it's hard to see what more they could do even if the executives were to demand a makeover. Or am I overlooking something?

  • fyerwallfyerwall Member UncommonPosts: 3,240

    Originally posted by utopium

    Originally posted by fyerwall

    Now if they lost even just 2 million NA/EU players, thats when we would see a huge drop in profits.

    Sorry for sidetracking the discussion, but would even an 80% drop in profits have any consequence for anyone except the shareholders? They've already made ridiculous money on the title, and it seems that practically none of it has been used to improve the actual product. They've already done so much to maximize profits, that it's hard to see what more they could do even if the executives were to demand a makeover. Or am I overlooking something?

     No idea really.

    I was just alluding to the fact that if the Aisa/China base dropped it wouldn't result in much more than a dent in the yearly revenue for Blizzard. But if just half the NA/EU subs bailed, Blizzard Shareholders would be crying 'IT"S ARMAGEDDON!"

    There are 3 types of people in the world.
    1.) Those who make things happen
    2.) Those who watch things happen
    3.) And those who wonder "What the %#*& just happened?!"


  • utopiumutopium Member Posts: 103

    Originally posted by fyerwall

    But if just half the NA/EU subs bailed, Blizzard Shareholders would be crying 'IT"S ARMAGEDDON!"

    Sounds about right :) ...and for some inexplicable reason the image of this fills me with sweet, sweet glee.

  • KruulKruul Member UncommonPosts: 482

    I consider it more the Avatar of MMOs. It makes the most $$$ but is not the best

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